03/18/2022

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports: We saw plenty of sunspot activity this week, along with numerous solar flares. A confounding indicator was a higher average solar flux but lower average sunspot numbers. We expect to see these parameters track together, but that isn't always the case.

The average daily sunspot number went from 87.4 last week to 74.6 in the latest reporting period, March 10 - 16.

The average daily solar flux increased from 115.5 to 119.

A new sunspot group appeared on March 12, another on March 13, and two more on March 14. The total sunspot area (expressed in millionths of the solar disc) declined throughout the week, starting at 1,170 on March 10, then 1,080, 1,040, 940, 670, 490, and 290. So, the decline continued even through days that revealed new sunspots.

March 13 had the greatest geomagnetic disturbance, with the middle latitude A index at 30, the planetary A index at 40, and Alaska's college A index at 65. The A index is calculated from the K index, updated every 3 hours. In Alaska, the K was 0 in the first three readings, at 0000, 0300, and 0600 UTC, before jumping dramatically to 5, 7, 7, and 5 for the rest of the day. The K index is logarithmic, and 7 is a very big number, indicating a geomagnetic storm.

The solar flux prediction peaks at 125 on April 6 - 8, but starting today, the predicted flux is 108 on March 18 - 19; 95 on March 20 - 26; 100 on March 27 - 28; 110 on March 29 - 30; 115 on March 31; then 120, 115, and 120 on April 1 - 3; 115 on April 4 - 5; 125 on April 6 - 8; 120 on April 9 - 11; 115 on April 12 - 14; 110 on April 15 - 17; 100 on April 18; then 95 on April 19 - 22, and 100 on April 23 - 24.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on March 18 - 19; then 15, 12, and 8 on March 20 - 22; 5 on March 23 - 25; 10 and 8 on March 26 - 27; 5 on March 28 - 30; 10, 25, 15, and 8 on March 31 - April 3; 5 on April 4 - 15; 12 on April 16 - 17; 8 on April 18; then 5 on April 19 - 21, and 10 and 8 on April 22 - 23.

The vernal equinox will occur at 1533 UTC on Sunday, March 20 - a good sign for HF propagation as we move from winter to spring conditions in the Northern Hemisphere.

From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Undoubtedly, the most dramatic phenomenon of the past 7 days was the arrival of a CME [coronal mass ejection] on March 13, which broke away from the sun on March 10 - 11. It caused a medium [G2] geomagnetic storm. In its positive phase, [MUF] values increased during the UTC afternoon until evening, while the overall ionospheric propagation of decameter waves improved overall. In the negative phase that followed on March 14 - 15, they deteriorated significantly. A return to normal has been observed since March 16.

"A CME could do more than just ignite the bright aurora borealis. It also lowered the level of cosmic rays. A neutron monitor at the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland, saw a sharp decline in cosmic rays shortly after the CME arrived. It's called the 'Forbush Decline,' named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a cloud of coronal matter pushes galactic cosmic rays away from our planet. The cosmic rays fell sharply on March 13, then rose sharply at noon on March 14, then fell sharply again. We attribute this fluctuation to the more complex structure of the CME cloud. The cosmic rays remained depressed for 2, partly to 4, days after the arrival of the CME.

"The consequences of the coming of a CME in Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere were now, near the vernal equinox, more pronounced than they would have been at any other time of year."

I (K7RA) was experimenting with FT8 and PSKreporter[1] on Friday, March 11, on 10 meters and noticed at 2145 UTC that my low-power signal (with a very modest antenna) was heard over a narrow arc running from northern Virginia and central Texas, plus reports from two stations in New Zealand and several in South America. Fifteen minutes later, the only report was from K1HTV in Virginia. By 2224 UTC, the only reports were from two local western Washington stations, at 4 and 54 miles away.

On March 15, using the same setup on 10 meters at 1651 UTC, the only station outside the local area hearing me was XE1ACA, 2,344 miles away.

Often when coverage is marginal on 10 meters, 12 meters will be open.

At 1730 UTC on 12 meters, I was heard over a broad arc of stations 1,800 - 2,400 miles away, running from New Hampshire to south Texas, plus XE2BCS and XE1GK at 1,757 and 2,003 miles, and NH6Y in Hawaii at 2,654 miles. That arc of coverage was only 600 miles wide.

On March 14, VE1VDM reported unstable 10-meter conditions. "As of 1600 UTC [1 PM local] today, I have not had one RBN report on 28.173 MHz, nor one WSPR report on 28.126.130 MHz," he said. "The band has really tanked here in Nova Scotia."

Jon Jones, N0JK, reported on March 13:

"Larry, N0LL (EM09), decoded a number of South American stations on 50.313 MHz FT8 around 0040 UTC March 13. These included CE3SX (FF46), CE0YHF/CE3, CE2SV, and LU5FF. Larry was away from the radio when this occurred. [I] suspect an Es link to TEP [transequatorial propagation]. He then worked XE2TT (DL44) on Es at 0117 UTC. I monitored during this time frame. No South [American stations were contacted], but [I] did decode K3VN (EL98) around 0050 UTC on Es."

Also from Jon on the same day:

"A rare March sporadic-E opening on 6 meters [occurred on] the afternoon of March 11, from Kansas to W1, W2, W3, and W8.

"Here in Lawrence, I worked K3ISH (FN21) and KE8FD (EN80) on 50.313 MHz FT8 around 2100 UTC, [and copied] a few others.

"WQ0P (EM19) was in a better spot for it. He worked W1, W2, W3, W4, and W8.

"No rare DX, but any sporadic-E opening in March is noteworthy. The month of March has the lowest occurrence of sporadic E of any month of the year (see: www.qsl.net/pjdyer[2]).

"If the Es cloud had been located to the southeast [there could have been] a potential link-up with afternoon TEP. [I] did not see anyone working South America."

A tribute[3] to Maunder - of Maunder Minimum fame - and his wife, "Astronomer couple honoured with English Heritage blue plaque," appeared in the UK's Oxford Mail.

David Moore sent this obituary[4] of pioneering astronomer Eugene Parker - "Eugene Parker, astrophysicist namesake of NASA's Parker Solar Probe, dies at 94" - which appeared in Space.com[5].

Check out the latest video[6] from Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman.

Sunspot numbers for March 10 - 16 were 90, 81, 93, 64, 82, 71, and 41, with a mean of 74.6. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 127.1, 126.5, 124.7, 122.9, 114.9, 110.4, and 106.6, with a mean of 119. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 20, 13, 40, 14, 7, and 5, with a mean of 15.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 15, 7, 30, 13, 5, and 3, with a mean of 11.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[7] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[8] "What the Numbers Mean...," and check this propagation page[9] by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive[10] is available. Instructions[11] for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[12] website.

ARRL member Tad Cook, K7RA, has been writing the weekly ARRL Propagation Bulletins since 1991. Share[13] your reports and observations.


[1] https://pskreporter.info
[2] https://www.qsl.net/pjdyer
[3] https://bit.ly/3ihvjVO
[4] https://www.space.com/eugene-parker-solar-probe-scientist-dead
[5] http://www.space.com
[6] https://youtu.be/1VsmS6xl34s
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins
[12] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[13] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net

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■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/01/2022

Many solar flares and CMEs occurred over the reporting week (March 24-30) but with glancing blows and near misses, it wasn't reflected in the geomagnetic indicators until Thursday, the last day in March.

The Planetary A index reached a high for the reporting week of 19 on March 27. Average daily planetary A index rose by a modest amount from 6.3 to 10.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 33.4 to 80.1, while solar flux went from 99.9 to 132.7.

The rising solar activity brought us a tremendous amount of 10 meter coverage. Every day I have received reports from all over North America from operators hearing my K7RA/B propagation beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

Predicted solar flux is 150, 145, and 130 on April 1-3, 115 on April 4-5,  110 on April 6-8, then 118, 115, and 110 on April 9-11, 105 on April 12-14, 108 on April 15, 105 on April 16-19, 110 on April 20-21, 115 on April 22, 125 on April 23-26, then 123, 118 and 118 on April 27-29, then 108 on April 30 through May 2, 112 on May 3, 115 on May 4-6, and 112 on May 4, then dropping to 105 through the middle of May.

The predicted planetary A index is 32, 10, 15 and 10 on April 1-4, 819, on April 5-6, 5 on April 7-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15 and 10 on April 22-24, then 5 on April 25-29, 12 and 8 on April 30 and May 1, and 5 0n May 2-15. 

 

A report from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:  "We have a week of somewhat wilder development behind us. Its first indication were two sunspot groups on the northeastern limb of the solar disc on March 24. The second of them, region 2976 was larger.

"Region 2975 had a more complex magnetic structure and grew gradually. A proton solar flare was observed on March 28 at 1129 UTC, accompanied by a significant increase in proton levels. And above all, it was followed by a CME heading to Earth!

"Exactly as predicted, the arrival of the CME caused a geomagnetic disturbance on March 31. Its positive phase of development was accompanied, especially in the UTC morning hours, by a significant improvement in the shortwave propagation conditions on a global scale.

"Another solar flare was observed in the same area on March 30 with a maximum at 1737 UTC. Although X-ray levels rose more than on March 28, followed by CME again (albeit weaker, at 1823 UT),  there is no expectation that it would be followed by a similar increase in geomagnetic activity."

 

Angel Santana, WP3GW, of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote: "Conditions were decent for the contest last weekend. Ten meters was as good as last October but propagation is still improving, as stations were as high at 28.6 MHz, but on a great season stations would be heard beyond 29 MHz. With the new radios that have spectrum analyzers you can view this. On Sunday at 1420 UTC contacted a few European stations and even a 4X.

When I went to 15/20 meters, I had 85 percent success in contacting the stations. Overall, I worked 324 stations and 64 DXCC entities.

"And there are a few stations from Spain on 10 meters at 2000 UTC, which is their local 10 PM. Really big signals. Cycle 25 is definitely rising."

  

LA4LN reports 6 meter TEP activity: "I see that stations in southern Europe are reporting contacts with southern Africa and South America, across the magnetic equator.

"Likewise,US stations are making TEP contacts with stations in South America across the magnetic equator, with no F2 propagation possible on 50 MHz at this time, with an insufficient SFI (Solar Flux Index) for 50 MHz F2 propagation.

Seeing more TEP 'heard & worked' between southern Europe and southern Africa on the 6 meters band, across the magnetic equator via Dxmaps.com." 

I often see references to the "magnetic equator" but did not know what it was. This gives a good explanation: https://bit.ly/38nV2u1[1]

 

More from LA4LN: "In last week's bulletin you comments from N0JK speculating about the first F2 openings on 50 MHz in the Solar Cycle 25.

"It must be mentioned that the SFI has been near 100 (he reported 95), and this is most likely too low SFI to cause F2 propagation on 50 MHz, according to my experience.

"Instead, during the last few weeks I've seen numerous reports of TEP (Trans Equatorial Propagation) on 50 MHz, with radio amateurs in mainly the southern states of USA working South America - and with radio amateurs in southern Europe working southern Africa and South America.

"It is important to note that the TEP is aligned over the magnetic equator on Earth (not aligned over the geographic equator). TEP is well described in the ARRL literature."

 

We normally get our 10.7 cm solar flux staight from the source, the DRAO observatory in Penticton, British Columbia: https://bit.ly/3Dur7f0[2]. But since March 18, there has been no new data, so we rely on NOAA as a secondary source, which is why we have recently presented solar flux numbers that are not resolved to 0.1 but instead are from this source, which is also our source for daily sunspot numbers: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[3]. DRAO Penticton has not answered any e-mail inquiries or phone calls, so we wait.

 

Some of the interesting articles and images this week:

-- https://bit.ly/3tWNqa0[4]

--https://bit.ly/3v4D8Ej[5]

--https://bit.ly/3LvufKd[6]

--https://bit.ly/3LCGxRn[7]

  

NN4X sent a Pskreporter map showing his 10 meter signal at 1710 UTC on March 29 being received all around the world, including South Africa, Europe, Southeast Asia, South America and across North America. That was just one of many, many 10 meter reports this week.

 

An exciting new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:  https://youtu.be/SVbKQmjkqTc[8]

  

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

Sunspot numbers for March 24 through 30, 2022 were 44, 50, 48, 97, 125, 124, and 73, with a mean of 80.1.. 10.7 cm flux was 112, 112, 119, 130, 156, 149, and 151, with a mean of 132.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 10, 7, 18, 10, 8, and 8, with a mean of 10. Middle latitude A index was 6, 3, 6, 11, 4, 7, and 6, with a mean of 8.1.


[1] https://bit.ly/38nV2u1
[2] https://bit.ly/3Dur7f0
[3] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
[4] https://bit.ly/3tWNqa0
[5] https://bit.ly/3v4D8Ej
[6] https://bit.ly/3LvufKd
[7] https://bit.ly/3LCGxRn
[8] https://youtu.be/SVbKQmjkqTc
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/08/2022

Lots of solar activity livened up HF conditions over the past reporting week, March 31 to April 6. Average daily sunspot number rose from 90.1 to 94.6, and daily solar flux from 132.7 to 135.3.

It looks like solar flux may peak this month at 140 on April 24-28.

Since March 18 we were unable to get daily solar flux from the observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, so for a couple of weeks we relied on secondary sources which were all in whole numbers, instead of resolving to 0.1. Multiple inquiries to the observatory led nowhere, but now the data is back online at https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC[1] .

I had to fudge the flux value for March 31, because the value of 239.5 was obviously an error, probably due to a CME overwhelming the 10.7 cm receiver at the observatory, so I averaged the morning and afternoon readings to 149.3. The official daily flux value is always from the 2000 UTC local noon reading.

Geomagnetic conditions were quite active on March 31 through April 2. Average daily planetary A index for the week increased from 10 to 14.4, and middle latitude A index from 8.1 to 10.9.

Spaceweather.com reported 146 solar flares over the month of March and predicts even more for April. They also report that cycle 25 is progressing faster and stronger than earlier predictions. A new sunspot group appeared on March 31, two more on April 1, another on April 2 and one more on April 3, and one more on April 5.

The predicted solar flux is 108 on April 8-9, 105 on April 10-11, 100 on April 12-14, then 110, 115 and 120 on April 15-17, 125 on April 18-19, 130 on April 20-23, 140 on April 24-28, 135 on April 29-30, 130 on May 1, 120 on May 2-3, 125 on May 4-5, 120 on May 6, 115 on May 7-8, 110 on May 8-9, 115 on May 11, and 120 on May 12-14.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 8-11, 5 on April 12-19, 10 on April 20-21, then 5, 15, 10 and 8 on April 22-25, 5 on April 26-28, then 18, 12, 10 and 8 on April 29 through May 2, 5 on May 3-7, then 12 and 10 on May 8-9, and 5 on May 10-16.

Solar wind in the news: https://bit.ly/3rdXycD[2]

F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports: "Total solar activity has been declining. Recent CMEs generated by solar flares have usually not been headed to Earth. On April 6, the solar wind was expected to intensify from a CME generated by a filament eruption on April 3rd, but only a small portion of the solar plasma cloud reached Earth.

"The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active until April 2 and partly on April 4 and 7. The increased geomagnetic activity on the night of April 3 to 4 worsened diurnal short wave propagation conditions on April 4. Thereafter, despite the continuing decline in solar activity, shortwave propagation conditions improved.

"In further development, we first expect a decline in solar activity. Its growth in the second half of the month will again cause an improvement of shortwave propagation. However, the development will be slightly irregular."

Another informative video forecast from WX6SWW, Dr. Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ[3]

WB8VLC reports from Oregon: "Another fun week on 10 meters but only SSB/CW and not much FM activity. However, the SSB/CW activity was strong with signals to South Africa, Taiwan, Philippines, Norfolk Island and Australia.

It is interesting that I have not heard any European stations during any morning or afternoon openings to the east, just South Africa."

A small portion of his log:

April 3 it was New Zealand in the morning and Australia at night, followed by China and Philippines 

2344 UTC   N7ET/DU7  28.014  CW 599 Philippines

2340 UTC   BV1EL     28.010  CW 599 Taiwan

2311 UTC   VK3NX    28.015  CW 599 Australia

1900 UTC   ZS3Y      28.373  SSB 55 South Africa

K5JRN reports on 6 meters from Austin, Texas: "Interesting conditions observed here on April 4 and 6. Using FT8 on 6 meters on 4/4/22, I worked HK3X (FJ24) in Columbia and HC1MD/2 (EI97) in Ecuador while running 30 W to an indoor dipole wrapped around a couple of bamboo tomato stakes glued end to end.

"That same combo helped me snag HC2DR (FI07) in Ecuador today (4/6). My signals were not strong, ranging from -13 to -24 in Columbia and Ecuador. I've also been heard in Argentina and have copied several Argentinian hams, including LU9AEA (GF05), but have not yet worked an Argentinian on 6.

"Today, I've also been heard in Uruguay by CX7CO (GF15) but have not heard any CX stations yet. Indeed, I'm not receiving anyone else on 6 except a few locals and those South American stations. The north-south paths seem like narrow pipelines."

Speaking of "narrow pipelines," from here in the northwest I often see this on 10 and 12 meters using FT8. Monitoring pskreporter.info[4], on April 7 at 1630 UTC on 12 meters my signal was only reported by stations on the East Coast over a narrow band, all from 2296-2359 miles from me, at first only by many stations in Virginia and North Carolina, but not South Carolina.

Later at 1645 UTC coverage expanded to Florida and Georgia, but still within that narrow mileage limit. Later by 1720 UTC reports had spread to New York, Georgia and  Florida, and the mileage range expanded slightly to 2119-2489 miles. But there was one major exception, HK3A in Bogota, Columbia at 4091 miles.

The night before (local time) at 0220 UTC on 17 meters I was copied only into a specific area about 2300 miles away in Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, then suddenly at 0232 UTC the coverage expanded to California, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, and Florida.  All of this with low power and a crude end-fed indoor antenna, fed with an UnUn and autotuner.

Thanks to KA7F for this link: https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8[5]

Cycle 25's increasing activity is drawing the attention of the media. In this instance it is KTAR in Arizona: https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p[6]

And more from Southgate Amateur Radio: https://bit.ly/38BbEOW[7]

Fascinating solar phenomena: https://bit.ly/3ra65NV[8]

EarthSky reports an exciting week for solar observers: https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/[9]

 N0JK reports: "On Saturday April 2, 2022, NOLL (EM09) I copied LU5VV, CE2SV, LU1WFU and PV8DX on 50.313 MHz FT8 TEP. I copied CE2SV on TEP and KOSIX (EN35) calling PY5CC on 50.313 MHz Es at 2109 UTC."

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13]. More useful information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15].

Sunspot numbers for March 31 through April 6, 2022, were 84, 109, 118, 129, 86, 75, and 61, with a mean of 94.6. 10.7 cm flux was 149,3, 146.6, 143.3, 140.2, 128, 122.4, and 117, with a mean of 135.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 27, 17, 22, 10, 11, 6, and 8, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 12, 19, 7, 8, 6, and 6, with a mean of 10.9.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3LDlgqC
[2] https://bit.ly/3rdXycD
[3] https://youtu.be/SxU6Lv30DuQ
[4] http://pskreporter.info
[5] https://bit.ly/3rbkUj8
[6] https://bit.ly/3x9cv3p
[7] https://bit.ly/38BbEOW
[8] https://bit.ly/3ra65NV
[9] https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-week-of-march-28-to-april-3/
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/06/2022

www.spaceweather.com[1] reported on May 4 at 0859 UTC that an M5 solar flare erupted from sunspot group AR3004, causing a shortwave radio

blackout over the Middle East and Africa.

Please see https://bit.ly/3vKzelk[2]

A recent flare update:

https://bit.ly/3OXvuo8[3]

Solar activity was lower this week, even though we could see
sunspots every day.

Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 109.3 to 68.6, while
average daily solar flux went from 156 to 120.

Average daily geomagnetic indices were only slightly higher, with
average planetary A index changing from 9.1 to 10.7, and middle
latitude A index from 8 to 9.3.

Predicted solar flux looks low for the next month, even dipping
below 100 in early June. In fact, from Wednesday to Thursday the
predicted solar flux for the first week of the forecast dropped
dramatically.

For a comparison, see this week's ARRL Letter at, http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2022-05-05[4] .

Predicted values are 118 on May 6-8, then 115, 110 and 112 on May
9-11, then 115, 115 and 120 on May 12-14, 125 on May 15-18, 127 on
May 19-20, then 130, 128, 125, and 122 on May 21-24, 118 on May
25-26, then 114 and 110 on May 27-28, 105 on May 29-31, then 102 and
100 on June 1-2, 97 on June 3-5, then 99, 102 and 108 on June 6-8,
then 115 on June 9, 120 on June 10, and 125 on June 11-14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 6, 8 on May 7-8, 5 on May
9-12, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 13-15, 5 on May 16-19, then 12 and 8
on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, then 8,
15 and 8 on May 28-30, then 5 on May 31 through June 8, then 8, 1,
and 8 on June 9-11.

These predictions are from forecasters Housseal and Dethlefsen of
the USAF 557th Weather Wing.

Recent flare activity in the news:

https://bit.ly/39vn8Uq[5]

https://bit.ly/38YBfRO[6]

https://bit.ly/3P0IfOX[7]

https://bit.ly/3ydNeFM[8]

https://bit.ly/3FhULFc[9]

Thanks to KA3JAW for this story:

https://bit.ly/3kLmchd[10]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere from OK1HH:

"We have seen more of large solar flares this year, but it was
usually by night in Europe. On April 30, the first major flare
finally occurred during the day, thanks to which we were able to
observe the ShortWave Fadeout (SWF) in the western part of the Old
World. Solar X-rays caused abnormally high ionization in the
ionospheric D region, where attenuation increased significantly. Our
shortwave receivers fell silent at 1337 UTC.

"The solar flare peaked at 1347 UTC, ending at 1352 UTC. Only then
could the attenuation in the ionospheric D region begin to decline
and signals other than those coming via ground wave gradually
appeared. Solar activity began to rise again mainly due to active
area No. 3004, which emerged on May 2, and grew rapidly.

"Its magnetic structure became more complex with increased energy,
with significant eruptions up to several times a day. In addition,
they were often accompanied by type IV radio noise bursts, which
indicated that the solar plasma cloud had left the Sun. As Group
3004 is now facing approximately toward us, we can expect at least
one of the clouds to hit Earth, causing a disturbance. Perhaps we
will see further improvement in the shortwave propagation
conditions, during the possible positive phase of its development."

KA3JAW sent this report about signals heard on the 8 meter band:

"On Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607-1632 UTC I received
WM2XEJ in Grid Square EM82 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E.
Distance was 670 miles (1078 km), with an azimuth of 220 degrees.

"The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700
MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

"Licensed users are Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration-satellite
service.

"WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated
by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia. Tom is authorized to
operate at 400 watts of Effective Radiated Power (ERP) using CW,
SSB, digital modes FT4, FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

"Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna giving
about 300 watts of ERP."

Amateur radio has 8 meter allocations in the UK, Slovenia, Denmark,
and South Africa.

Here is a blog devoted to 8 meters:

https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/p/40-mhz.html[11] .

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[12] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for April 28 through May 4, 2022 were 118, 90, 50,
36, 69, 53, and 64, with a mean of 68.6. 10.7 cm flux was 132.2,
123.5, 119.7, 109, 111.9, 113.8, and 130.1, with a mean of 120.
Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 15, 18, 9, 6, 7, and 6, with
a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 11, 10, 16, 9, 6, 7, and
6, with a mean of 9.3.

 


[1] https://www.spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3vKzelk
[3] https://bit.ly/3OXvuo8
[4] http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2022-05-05
[5] https://bit.ly/39vn8Uq
[6] https://bit.ly/38YBfRO
[7] https://bit.ly/3P0IfOX
[8] https://bit.ly/3ydNeFM
[9] https://bit.ly/3FhULFc
[10] https://bit.ly/3kLmchd
[11] https://ei7gl.blogspot.com/p/40-mhz.html
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[17] http://k9la.us/
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/14/2022

We saw some evidence of sporadic-e propagation this week on 6 and 10 meters, always surprising and exciting.

Solar activity was about the same as last week, at least going by the numbers.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose slightly from 68.6 to 74.4, while average daily solar flux only budged from 120 to 120.3.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index shifting from 10.7 to 5, and average middle latitude numbers from 9.3 to 4.6. We listed the middle latitude A index on May 6 as 2, but that number is my own estimate. At the end of that day the last K index reading was not reported, and since the A index for the day is calculated from all the K index readings, there was no official middle latitude A index reported, so I came up with my own estimate based on available data.

Thursday's outlook for solar flux is more optimistic than last week's prediction, with no values below 100. Expected flux values are 135 on May 13-16, then 132, 128, 126, and 120 on May 17-20, then 118, 120, 124 and 121 on May 21-24, 118 on May 25-27, 116 on May 28-31, 118 on June 1-5, then 116 and 118 on June 6-7, 120 on June 8-9, 122 on June 10-14, 118 on June 15-17, then 120, 124 and 121 on June 18-20.

Planetary A index is predicted at 8 on May 13, 12 on May 14-15, then 14 and 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-19, then 12 and 8 on May 20-21, 5 on May 22-23, 18 on May 24, 15 on May 25-27, 8 on May 28, and 5 on May 29 through June 15, a nice long quiet spell of geomagnetic stability for more than 2 weeks.

Thursday's forecast was prepared by Trost and Housseal of the U.S. Air Force.

OK1HH wrote: "Solar flares continue to occur, and some of them are throwing several overlapping CMEs into space. The amount of CMEs leaving the sun is large enough to make it difficult to unravel their different shapes and trajectories, which reduces the reliability of predictions. Nevertheless, the geomagnetic activity is mostly low, which can be explained by the fact that the magnetic fields above the solar surface are mostly closed.

"An intense solar flare of class X1.5 was observed on May 10 at 1355 UT in the active region 3006 with a complex magnetic structure. Radiation from the flare ionized the Earth's atmosphere and caused a shortwave radio outage around the Atlantic Ocean, more specifically from Central Europe to the east coast of the United States (see Dellinger effect). Radio transmissions at frequencies below 30 MHz were attenuated for more than an hour after the eruption. 

"Another M-flare on the afternoon of May 11 was a proton flare.

"Another CME on May 11 came from the sunspots on the far side - one just behind the eastern limb of the Sun and the other just behind the western limb. We do not expect the solar wind around the Earth to intensify again."

The Dellinger effect: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance[1]

Here is a blackout map for the above mentioned May 10 event: https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg[2]

More on this event:

https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0[3]

https://bit.ly/3NgULrX[4]

Mystery of the bright spots: https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa[5]

WA6LIE wrote in a message titled "TEP to Fiji": "Yesterday evening March 10 just after 0600 UTC I was getting ready to go to bed and saw 3D2AG calling CQ on 6 meter FT8. I gave him a call and we made a QSO.

"He was decoded here in Salinas, California. CM96 for an hour and a half with no takers. Looks like the Magic band is starting to play!

"I will go back to my saying: Gotta be in the right place at the right
time and get lucky!  Heads up!"

K5JRN wrote: "Today (05/07/2022) at 1601 UTC, I caught a brief 2-meter E-skip opening and worked W4AS in EL95, using FT8, 25 Watts, and an indoor mobile whip antenna. It was an 1100-mile hop from EM10, in Austin, TX, to the Miami, FL area. He was +04 here and I was -24 there, no doubt because of my low power and cross-polarization. It was a new grid for me on 2, and I'm happy to have it."

A massive solar flare, almost: https://bit.ly/3Maqvij[6]

Solar cycle progress update from NOAA: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[7]
Real time geomagnetic updates: https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm[8]

The latest Space Weather from Dr. Skov, WX6SWW: https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg [9]
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for May 5 through 11, 2022 were 85, 64, 66, 89, 71, 62, and 84, with a mean of 74.4. 10.7 cm flux was 119.9, 119.2, 118.1, 119.2, 117, 115.8, and 132.9, with a mean of 120.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 3, 6, 8, 3, and 6, with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 4, 2, 4, 7, 8, 2, and 5, with a mean of 4.6.

 


[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_ionospheric_disturbance
[2] https://bit.ly/3w7jQjg
[3] https://bit.ly/3N98Nf0
[4] https://bit.ly/3NgULrX
[5] https://bit.ly/3wbiBQa
[6] https://bit.ly/3Maqvij
[7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[8] https://www.solarham.net/kp.htm
[9] https://youtu.be/PUArR1QXTAg
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/20/2022

 Solar activity was up, up, up this week, with average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 74.4 to 134.1, and average daily solar flux from 120.3 to 157.3.

To get some perspective, I averaged the weekly averages for sunspot number and solar flux from this bulletin and the previous three, then compared them to the bulletins from one year earlier.

A year ago, the averages for 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletins ARLP017 through ARLP020 were 28.9 for sunspot numbers and 75.9 for solar flux.  A year later, the averages are 96.6 for sunspot numbers and 138.4 for solar flux.

This documents a substantial increase in solar activity and is another illustration of how this cycle is progressing faster than the official cycle prediction by the experts. 

Geomagnetic indicators were higher this week. Average daily planetary A index went from 5 to 9, while middle latitude A index increased from 4.6 to 9.6, compared to the previous reporting period, which always runs from Thursday through the following Wednesday. 

Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that big sunspot AR3014 doubled in size, and presented this movie from NASA, showing 24 hours of activity: 

https://bit.ly/3G1m2ff[1] 

On Thursday, Spaceweather.com presented this movie of a massive jet of plasma projecting from our Sun's southwestern limb: 

https://bit.ly/3sOEdQe[2] 

Predicted solar flux in Thursday's prediction begins about 8 points lower than the Wednesday forecast, at 172 on May 20, 170 on May 21-24, then a decline from 168, 166, 150, 136, and 138 on May 25-29, then the predicted values revert back to the Wednesday forecast at 140 on May 30-31, 143 on June 1-3, 140 and 136 on June 4-5, 138 on June 6-7, then 140 and 150 on June 8-9, 154 on June 10-12, 152 on June 13-14, then 150 and 148 on June 15-16, 140 on June 17-18, 145 on June 19, 142 on June 20-21, then 138 on June 22 and 136 on June 23-24. 

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on May 20, 8 on May 21-22, 5 on May 23-26, 15 and 8 on May 27-28, 5 on May 29 through June 9, 8 on June 10, 14 on June 11-12, 8 and 5 on June 13-14, 8 on June 15-16, 5 on June 17-19, 18 on June 20, then 15 on June 21-23, 8 on June 24, and 5 for at least the following ten days. 

The above predictions are from Housseal and Levine of the 557th USAF Weather wing. 

The Sun busts out a trio of flares: 

https://bit.ly/3yOhNlF[3] 

OK1HH wrote: 

"In the last seven days, solar activity has risen monotonously." 

(I thought F.K. Janda's use of the word "monotonously" must be a mistranslation, but now I am not so sure. I thought perhaps he meant "monstrously." -K7RA) 

"Moderate flares have been observed almost daily. Highest level X-rays belonged to an X1.5 class eruption, start 1350 UTC, peak 1355 UTC, end time 1359 UTC on May 10th from NOAA AR 3006 in the southwest quadrant, classified as magnetic type beta-gamma-delta. 

"During the daytime, moderate flares often caused a Short-Wave Fadeout. AR 3007 and AR 3014 also evolved into the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. 

"No fibrous eruption was observed in any of the fibers on the solar disc. Observed coronal holes were relatively small, for this reason too, the geomagnetic activity was mostly low. The expected arrival of a CME, related to the flares of classes X1.5 and C4.7 on 10 May did not arrive on Earth. 

"The decrease in geomagnetic activity together with the increase in the intensity of solar X-rays contributed to the fact that the critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 were above average, increased further since 15 May." 

"Here is the Solar activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022: 

"Activity level: mostly moderate

X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range C1.4-C2.6

Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 145-195

Events: class C (1-10/day), class M (1-8/period), class X

(0-3/period), proton (0-1/period)

Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 140-230


"Jana Hrabalova, RWC Prague Astronomical Institute."


"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 20-26, 2022:


"Quiet: May 21-23

Unsettled: May 19-20, 24-26

Active: May 19, 24

Minor storm: possible May 24

Major storm: 0

Severe storm: 0

"Geomagnetic activity summary:

"Today (Thursday, May 19), unsettled to active conditions are expected. On Friday, May 20, we expect at most unsettled conditions until Saturday, May 21. From this day to Tuesday, May 24, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.

"About Tuesday, May 24, and Wednesday, May 25, the return of the unsettled conditions may be accompanied by a further active event."

"Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics, Department of Geomagnetism, Budkov observatory."

KB1AWM wrote on Sunday, May 15:

"Had a nice short opening to VK6OZ on 12m from Charleston, SC at 0330 UTC tonight. The mode was FT8. What was most amazing was given that late night propagation is usually not conducive to 12m, I switched on the amp and received a +17 dB signal report. If you take out the 7 dB from the amp, that still leaves +10 dB barefoot. I'm enjoying these 10 and 12 meter openings!"

I replied: "I've been seeing interesting stuff on 12 meters as well. Frequently during the day on FT8 I will see my signal from here in Seattle on pskreporter ONLY being received in Florida. Weird!" 

On Tuesday, May 17 on 12 meter FT8 starting at 2130 UTC I was only heard by CX6VM in Uruguay (6,945 miles), WH6S on Kauai (2,723 miles) and 3D2EZ Fiji (5,834 miles). 

This persisted until 2145 UTC when I was heard by WQ6Q in California (713 miles). 

On Thursday, May 19 I used FT8 to observe propagation on 10 meters using pskreporter.info from 1530-1600 UTC. Local sunrise was 1231 UTC. During that half hour I was receiving no signals at all, but my low power signal was being received by many stations, only in the Western United States, all between 700-1200 miles away, with one odd exception, a mysterious WLO in EM50vo, 2149 miles from me in Alabama. 

WLO turned out to be the callsign of an old Coastal Maritime station in Mobile, Alabama. This doesn't mean that they are on the 10 meter band with that callsign, but instead have a receiver monitoring the band and forwarding received info via WSJT-X. 

Check out this web site: 

https://www.radiomarine.org/historic-coast-stations/wlo-mobile[4] 

Interesting web site - the Solar Influences Data Center: 

https://www.sidc.be/LatestSWData/LatestSWData.php[5] 

The Solar Terrestrial Centre of Excellence: 

https://www.stce.be/news/591/welcome.html[6] 

Here is a site that talks about 17 flares: 

https://bit.ly/3NtPaP8[7] 

Here is an article titled "Solar flares: What are they and how do they affect Earth?" with nice graphics: 

https://bit.ly/3G2jgGF[8] 

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net. 

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11]. 

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at, http://k9la.us/[13] . 

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at, http://arrl.org/bulletins . 

Sunspot numbers for May 12 through 18, 2022 were 112, 120, 105, 129, 173, 153, and 147, with a mean of 134.1. 10.7 cm flux was 133, 149.5, 152.7, 153.6, 161.7, 170.8, and 179.9, with a mean of 157.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 7, 12, 10, 12, and 7, with a mean of 9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 9, 10, 11, 15, and 7, with a mean of 9.6.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3G1m2ff
[2] https://bit.ly/3sOEdQe
[3] https://bit.ly/3yOhNlF
[4] https://www.radiomarine.org/historic-coast-stations/wlo-mobile
[5] https://www.sidc.be/LatestSWData/LatestSWData.php
[6] https://www.stce.be/news/591/welcome.html
[7] https://bit.ly/3NtPaP8
[8] https://bit.ly/3G2jgGF
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/27/2022

 

Although our Sun is currently peppered with spots, average daily sunspot number slipped from 134.1 the previous week to 124.7 during this reporting week, May 19 to 25.

Average daily solar flux was actually a tiny bit higher, rising hardly at all from 157.3 to 158.8. Solar flux has been in a slow, steady decline from a peak of 179.9 on May 18.

A new sunspot group emerged on May 19, two more on May 22, another on May 24 and two more on May 25. But a look at the total sunspot area, expressed in millionths of a full solar disc, shows it declining steadily through the week, from 1500 on May 19 down to 870 on May 25.

AR3014 is the biggest sunspot group of the current solar cycle:

https://bit.ly/39UwBVA[1]

There were plenty of solar flares this week, although no significant disturbances to note.

Here is a movie of a flare appearing on May 20:

https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX[2]

Another flare on May 25 at 1824 UTC, emerging from an old dead sunspot group:

https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd[3]

The Thursday prediction from USAF shows average daily solar flux dropping from 158.8 over the recent week to 114.5 for the following reporting week, May 26 through June 1. Also, the Thursday projection for solar flux in the next week was lower than the Wednesday prediction.

Predicted solar flux is 120, 115 and 110 on May 27 to 29, 112 on May 30 to June 1, 115 on June 2, 120 on June 3 and 4, 115 on June 5 and 6, then 130, 140 and 150 on June 7 to 9, 155 on June 10 and 11, then 160 and 165 on June 12 and 13, 175 on June 14 and 15, 165 on June 16 to 19, then 163, 132, and 158 on June 20 to 22, 150, 142 and 138 on June 23 to 25, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on June 26 to 29, 120 on June 30 through July 1, and 115 on July 2 and 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 18, 15, 12 and 10 on May 27 to 31, 5 on June 1 to 9, then 8, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 10 to 14, then 12, 14, 12, 14 and 8 on June 15 to 19, 5 on June 20 to 22, then 10, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 25, and 5 on June 26 through July 6.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - May 26, 2022 from OK1HH.

"The current accelerating growth of solar activity is leading to predictions that the maximum of the current cycle 25 should be comparable to cycle 19. Solar cycle 19 was the nineteenth solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of sunspot activity began. Solar cycle 19 lasted 10.5 years, beginning in April 1954 and ending in October 1964. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the peak of cycle 19 was 285, in March 1958.

In the last 14 days, the solar flux has not fallen below 130. A total of 13 M-class solar flares were registered.

The critical frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 in the same interval corresponded to the effective sunspot number 72 to 116, while drops below 100 occurred exclusively after days with slightly increased geomagnetic activity.

It's already summer in the ionosphere of the Earth's Northern Hemisphere. This corresponds to lower values of the highest usable frequencies with the daily occurrence of sporadic layer E. The optimal frequencies for DX QSOs therefore fell below 20 MHz. With the exception of routes leading above lower latitudes, where they tend to be several MHz higher during the day.

In the coming weeks, the activity of the sporadic layer E in the ionosphere of the northern hemisphere will intensify. Although solar activity should increase again after June 10, the activity of the sporadic layer E will have an even more significant effect on the opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

Recent flare news:

https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc[4]

NN4X wrote:

"There was some amazing propagation on Thursday, 5/26 on 12m to Asia over the north pole. I was called, and worked, in succession:

EX8MLE 1618 UTC 

9V1XX 1619 UTC 

DS4FWI 1620 UTC 

VU2CPL 1627 UTC

Sadly, 6m never opened, but the fun didn't stop with 12m in the morning.

15m was spectacularly open around 0200 UTC on Thursday evening.

The band was literally open ALL OVER THE WORLD."

Steve included a pskreporter map showing spectacular worldwide FT8 coverage for his signal.

From Max White, M0VNG, concerning latitudinal asymmetry in sunspot regions:

https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d[5]

Posted to an email list devoted to propagation beacons on Thursday night:

"Late evening. Only heard one beacon around 0345 UTC:

ZL3TEN, 28.2279 MHz, 579  Path: 7,827 miles

Unbelievable so late at night and signal so strong.

73, Lou  WD5GLO-EM15AH  Oklahoma"

On May 24 I sent this to propagation expert K9LA:

"Over and over recently I do an FT8 test using pskreporter on 10 meters and if no response there, I check 12 meters, usually around 1600 to 1800 UTC.

Every day shows my signals ONLY being received in Florida, the path about 2500 miles. Often there will be an XE station or two, also at 2500 miles.

But that's it, nothing else. But later in the day there will be a few stations elsewhere.

The bearing is 103 to 105 deg.

This is consistent, day after day. I am sure Florida has a large ham population, but cannot for the life of me figure this out.

On 10 meters a half hour ago AG0N in Nebraska reported, 999 miles away and also a 106 degree bearing, but otherwise see a huge concentration of Florida stations.

Any idea why this is happening, other than perhaps a large and enthusiastic concentration of FT8 stations monitoring in Florida?"

Carl replied:

"Tad, your observations remind me of when I've operated on 10m around solar minimum from the Cayman Islands. Most of the QSOs are in the vicinity of MN - which is about 2500 miles (4000 km) from ZF. The openings are very selective in location when there aren't enough sunspots for shorter distances.

The 2500 mile distance (4000 km) is right at the maximum F2 region hop length for 12m and 10m. That means the F2 region MUF is the highest for paths of that length.  Thus your FL and XE paths could be one F2 region hop. Any shorter paths would need more ionization to refract the higher elevation angles for those shorter distances.

As for New England, the midpoint of the path would be farther north, which means a lower MUF.

The Nebraska path might be via sporadic E, as 2000 km is the maximum hop length for the E region. Could the FL and XE paths be 2 hops via sporadic E? Perhaps - it'd be nice to have some data, but there aren't any ionosondes near those paths.

If I had to bet, I'd go with one F2 region hop for FL and XE, and one Es hop for Nebraska."

On May 25th I replied:

"Attached is an image from pskreporter from this morning on 12 meters, with Florida represented by better conditions with coverage up the east coast."

Carl responded:

"That PSKreporter image with the densest reports from along the East Coast suggests that it was one F2 hop, and that the F2 region was better on May 25 at 1942 UTC than the previous days. The day-to-day variation of the F2 region certainly explains it well.

It would be interesting to collect data for the entire day - maybe in 2-hour increments to see the patterns versus time. That may be a way to distinguish between F2 and Es."

I received a link from IL4LZH for a page showing interesting analysis of signals received at his station over the past few years:

"Here at https://ft8.chaos.cc[6].

You can find some data plots that I have collected in recent years.

They are analyzed by ITU zone and hours of days. Horizontally 40 ITU zone inside ITU zone hours from 00 to 23 vertically day of the month green intensity linked to intensity of signal."

Carrington event, https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm[7]

Dr. Tamitha Skov on May 22, https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA[8]

This weekend is the CQ World Wide CW WPX contest. You may be sought after if you have a 2x1 call sign (like my former call, KT7H) because the first few characters of your call may be unique. See https://www.cqwpx.com[9].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for May 19 through 25, 2022 were 154, 109, 110, 138, 132, 137, and 93, with a mean of 124.7. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2, 165.5, 166.7, 164.7, 158.2, 146.9, and 136.5, with a mean of 158.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 12, 10, 11, 5, 4, and 6, with a mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A index was 10, 12, 9, 11, 6, 3, and 7, with a mean of 8.3.

 

 


[1] https://bit.ly/39UwBVA
[2] https://bit.ly/3GlNtAX
[3] https://bit.ly/3PIoRXd
[4] https://bit.ly/3wQWxtc
[5] https://bit.ly/3MVCi4d
[6] https://ft8.chaos.cc
[7] https://bit.ly/3LTeCfm
[8] https://youtu.be/g8t2U4QKABA
[9] https://www.cqwpx.com
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/03/2022

 At 2335 UTC on June 2, the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.

"A solar filament recently erupted from the southwest quadrant of the solar disk. Event modeling suggests a minor impact to the Earth's magnetosphere on late 05 June to early 06 June."

All our measures of solar activity declined in a big way from the last reporting week to the current period, May 26 through June 1.

Average daily sunspot number plummeted from 124.7 to 52.9, and average daily 10.7 cm solar flux receded from 158.8 to 104.3. These are dramatic shifts, although well within expected variations at this point in solar cycle 25.

Predicted solar flux for the next month is 100 on June 3 to 5, 98 on June 6, 95 on June 7 and 8, then 90, 130, 135, and 140 on June 9 to 12, then 145, 150 and 145 on June 13 to 15, 140 on June 16 to 18, then 130, 125, 120 and 110 on June 19 to 22, 100 on June 23 to 29, 98 on June 30 through July 3, then 110, 112, 125, 130, 135, and 140 on July 4 to 9.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 3 and 4, 15 and 12 on June 5 and 6, 5 on June 7 to 9, 8 and 12 on June 10 and 11, 14 on June 12 and 13, then 8 and 12 on June 14 and 15, 14 on June 16 and 17, 12 on June 18, 5 on June 19 to 22, then 16, 22, 12, 10 and 8 on June 23 to 27, and 5 on June 28 to July 6, then 8 and 12 on July 7 and 8, and 14 on July 9 and 10.

OK1HH wrote:

"Last weekly commentary mentioned the possibility that the current 25th solar cycle could resemble the nineteenth, which peaked in 1958. However, it should be recalled that this was before the beginning of the satellite era, so compared to cycles 20 to 24 in fact, we know very little and comparison is difficult. Today's predictions of solar activity, without satellite measurements and observations, cannot even be imagined. The possibility of reaching such a high maximum as we experienced in 1958 applies under the conditions 'if the growth of activity continues with the current speed' and it is not the only condition.

After large active areas sank a week ago, solar activity dropped significantly. No major eruptions were observed.

The surprise was the G1-class geomagnetic storm on May 27th, related to the solar flare on the evening of May 25th. According to most predictions, the CME should have missed the Earth. In the shortwave propagation, we recorded an afternoon improvement on the 27th, followed by a significant degradation in the following days.

The second surprise was the occurrence of reversed magnetic polarity sunspot (AR3027) on June 1st. We commonly encounter this phenomenon around the minimum of the eleven-year cycle, later only exceptionally. The return of higher solar activity can be expected as early as next week. A more significant improvement in shortwave propagation awaits us around mid-June."

Thanks to David Moore, about how the current cycle progress is not exceptional, and definitely not another Cycle 19.

https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS[1]

Interesting.

https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm[2]

https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics[3]

N0JK wrote on May 31:

"There was great propagation to South America from the Midwest for the CQ WPX CW contest last weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday 10 meters was open to Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and other countries. I operated 'fixed mobile' with 10 watts and a quarter wave whip. Made 16 contacts.

I suspect the higher solar flux from Solar Cycle 25 picking up helped with TEP ionization. And sporadic-E set up links to TEP."

KA3JAW reports:

"On Wednesday, June 1, 2022, between 1819 and 1833 UTC I received WM2XEJ in EM83 calling CQ using FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via short-haul sporadic-E. Distance 670 miles, azimuth 220 deg.

The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.660 to 40.700 MHz with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680.

WM2XEJ is an FCC Part 5 Experimental Radio Service station operated by Tom Mills, WB4JWM in Eatonton, Georgia.

Tom is authorized to operate at 400 watts ERP using CW, SSB, FT4, FT8, WSPR, and Q65.

Tom uses an Icom IC-9100 rig into a vertical loop antenna at 300 watts ERP.

This was the second time I received WM2XEJ via sporadic-E. The first time was on Saturday, April 30, 2022, between 1607 and 1632 UTC.

Here is an update to the 8-meter experimental band which happened today, Thursday, June 2, 2022.

Sporadic-E started at 1521 til 1917 UTC.

1521 to 1917 UTC WM2XEJ EM83 3RD time received via FT8, 670 miles, azimuth 220 deg.

1704 to 1718 UTC WM2XAN EN74 1ST time received via FT8, 547 miles, azimuth 298 deg."

More on 8 meter experimental stations:

https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb[4]

Nice images:

https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs[5]

Correction: In last week's bulletin change IL4LZH to Gianluca Mazzini's actual call sign, IK4LZH.

Another important and timely report from Dr. Tamitha Mulligan Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA[6]

Check out her recently updated listing at QRZ.com.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for May 26 through June 1, 2022 were 87, 69, 34, 42, 40, 39, and 59, with a mean of 52.9. 10.7 cm flux was 122.7, 113.6, 101.8, 98.4, 100.6, 98, and 104.2, with a mean of 104.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 17, 24, 15, 9, 9, and 6, with a mean of 12. Middle latitude A index was 6, 14, 19, 14, 8, 8, and 8, with a mean of 11.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3M7YOFS
[2] https://www.sidc.be/silso/predikfcm
[3] https://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics
[4] https://bit.ly/3tcsPhb
[5] https://bit.ly/3NQ6LRs
[6] https://youtu.be/JggsnMpwnrA
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/10/2022

Hard for me to believe, I had to blink to make sure, but on Wednesday, June 8 for the first time this calendar year there were no sunspots, even though two new sunspot regions appeared on June 4.

Average daily sunspot number declined to 44 from 52.9 last week. Average daily solar flux was only 99.4, down from 104.3 last week and 158.8 the week before.

News about the first spotless day can be found here:

https://bit.ly/39cOiQk[1]

I am grateful that on Thursday, June 9, a new sunspot group emerged, bringing the sunspot number for the day to 17.

Predicted solar flux is 105 on June 10, 110 on June 11-16, 115 on June 17, 120 on June 18, 125 on June 19-20, 150 on June 21, 110 on June 22, 100 on June 23 through July 3, 105 on July 4-5, 110 on July 6-10, then 115 on July 11-13, 120 on July 14, and 125 on July 15-16.

Assuming the above prediction is true, this would mean average daily solar flux rising from 99.4 to 109 over the next reporting week and 123 the next.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 10-14, then 8, 12 and 8 on June 15-17, 5 on June 18-22, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on June 23-26, 5 on June 27 through July 9, then 12, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 10-14, and 5 on July 15-19.

Despite the recent downturn, Solar Cycle 25 activity exceeds the official forecast:

https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle[2]

According to Spaceweather.com, May 2022 sunspot activity was the highest it's been in eight years.

OK1HH wrote:

"As during the last solar revolution, solar activity has been low in the last two weeks.

"On June 8, the Sun was even empty - no sunspots - R = 0.

"This is a remarkable development more than 2 years after the beginning of Solar Cycle 25. However, during the last few hours, rapid spots have been observed near the central meridian. In addition, NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft is monitoring a probable group of sunspots approaching beyond the northeastern edge of the Sun:

"https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov[3]

"It should be followed by other groups of spots, which will increase solar activity again.

"The Earth's magnetic field was largely quiet, except for an increase in activity on June 6.

"The result was an improvement in the propagation conditions on June 6 and a degradation on June 7 and the morning of June 8. Gradual improvement can be expected in the coming days."

W9NY wrote:

"Just got a new dipole up on 10 meters on my condo roof which is over 400 feet off the ground overlooking Lake Michigan.

"Made a couple of contacts late this afternoon into Texas and Louisiana S5-S6 and nothing else on the band, until a ZL called me from New Zealand about 6:20 PM local time. He gave me an S9, and he was S5. Just like the good old days on 10 meters!

"The ionosphere has to be working, I think, to get over to New Zealand."

Some observations from K7RA on 6 and 12 meters this week:

On June 4, at 1745 UTC on 6 meter FT8 I worked KB1EFS/2 in Cape Vincent, New York.

On pskreporter.info[4] I saw that my signal was propagating along a very narrow arc at 72-74 degrees received only by a concentration of stations in the northeast USA. No real 6 meter antenna here, just a 32 foot end-fed wire, 4:1 UnUn and autotuner, mostly indoors on the second floor of my 1907 all wood Craftsman home.

Just prior to that at 1730 UTC I seemed to be monitored only by stations 2000-2500 miles from me in an arc with bearings 77-79 degrees with WA9WTK at the south and VE3TTP at the north.

On June 9 at 2300 UTC on 12 meters FT8 I am only heard by N4DB at 91 degrees, 2292 miles and K4BSZ at 94 degrees, 2276 miles. Then at 2320 UTC, WB4EVH at 2326 miles and 103 degrees bearing, at 2330 UTC, VK5PJ at 8306 miles, 250 degrees.

Here is an article about aurora:

https://bit.ly/398hPdM[5]

Mostly good info, except the statement about being halfway through this Solar Cycle. I guess we might be halfway toward the peak.

Here is a link about the K-index:

https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc[6]

Here is a nice solar image, and another interesting link:

https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B[7]

https://bit.ly/3x9WNna[8]

Amateur Astro photographer and his image:

https://bit.ly/3NILWYo[9]

More information here:

https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a[10]

Here is a 3-week movie of sunspot activity:

https://bit.ly/3zqGu87[11]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[12] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for June 2 through 8, 2022 were 59, 52, 75, 57, 45, 23, and 0, with a mean of 44.4. 10.7 cm flux was 100.9, 100.7, 100.9, 98.7, 96.4, 98.4, and 99.9, with a mean of 99.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 4, 4, 10, 8, and 5, with a mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 4, 5, 10, 11, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/39cOiQk
[2] https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle
[3] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov
[4] http://pskreporter.info
[5] https://bit.ly/398hPdM
[6] https://bit.ly/3xnDrLc
[7] https://bit.ly/3xlrB4B
[8] https://bit.ly/3x9WNna
[9] https://bit.ly/3NILWYo
[10] https://bit.ly/3QcuX2a
[11] https://bit.ly/3zqGu87
[12] k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[17] http://k9la.us/
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/17/2022

Solar activity increased this week, which we were happy to see, with average daily sunspot number rising from 44.4 last week to 74.3 during this reporting week, June 9-15. Sunspot numbers rose all week, starting at 17 on Thursday, June 9 to 149 on Wednesday, June 15.

Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux increased from 99.4 to 123.9. Solar flux peaked at 145.5 on Tuesday, June 14, but then on Thursday the noon daily reading at the Penticton observatory was 146.7, an increase from 140 the day before. Also on Thursday, daily sunspot number increased from 149 on Wednesday to 159.

The Penticton observatory does three daily readings of solar flux, but it is the local noon reading that is the official solar flux reading of the day, and the one we report here.

You can see the readings at https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk[1] .

The solar flux outlook appears promising for the next few days. The June 16, 2022 forecast from the USAF Space Weather Squadron shows solar flux at 146 on June 17-18, then 144, 140, and 138 on June 19-21, 136 on June 22-24, 100 on June 25 through July 5, then 105, 110 and 115 on July 6-8, 120 on July 9-11, 125 on July 12-16, 120 on July 17-18, 110 on July 19 and 100 on July 20-31.

Predicted planetary A index, a measure of geomagnetic stability, is 8 on June 17-18, 5 on June 19-24, then 10, and 8 on June 25-26, 5 on June 27 through July 7, 8 on July 8-10, then 5, 8, 12, 10 and 8 on July 11-15, then 5 on July 16-19, then 12, 18, 10 and 8 on July 20-23, and 5 through the end of the month.

You can find daily updates for predicted solar flux and A index at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt[2] . Updates are posted every afternoon, North America time.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity grew. The most significant phenomenon was observed in the southeast quadrant of the solar disk - a long-duration (LDE) M3/1n solar flare, observed at 0407 UTC on June 13, accompanied by type-II and IV radio emissions and radio bursts.

"The associated CME was visible off the east. The arrival of the ejected cloud of particles on Earth was calculated to the afternoon of June 15.

"Interplanetary magnetic field strength increased at 0400 UTC on June 15. Solar wind speed was about 500 km/s until shock arrival, when it escalated to 550 km/s and eventually peaked at 624 km/s at 0556 UTC.  The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with an escalation to G1 (Minor) storm levels during the 1200-1500 UTC in reaction to CME effects.

"The MUF increase caused by the storm was registered on June 15 at two intervals, first after 0600 UTC and second before 1200 UTC. In the afternoon to evening a decrease in MUF followed, an increase in the decline and an overall worsening.

"Solar activity will remain elevated for several days, which will help conditions return to above average levels. However, in the Earth's northern hemisphere, sporadic-E layer will cause very irregular development, from increased attenuation to more frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands."

Here are some solar flare updates:

https://bit.ly/3xvycJO[3]

https://bit.ly/3O0re6B[4]

Thanks to K5EM of the Western Washington DX Club for this study of sporadic-E:

https://bit.ly/39zqIxk[5]

Here is some information about the Maunder Minimum:

https://bit.ly/3QubESn[6]

Go to https://www.spaceweather.com[7] and look for an article that appeared June 15-16 titled "Mapping a Magnetic Superstorm."

Look for this fascinating map:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg[8] .

It purports to show which areas are more vulnerable to effects from geomagnetic storms due to variations in ground and infrastructure conductivity.

Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, a favorite operating activity for many of us. The current outlook shows modest solar flux and perhaps slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. Predicted solar flux for June 24-26 is 136, 100 and 100, with planetary A index at 5, 10 and 8. Field Day starts on Saturday, but it is worth looking at predictions for Friday.

Look for an update in next week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP025. Field Day rules are at, http://www.arrl.org/field-day[9] .

A few days ago, Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this:

https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A[10]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[11].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for June 9 through 15, 2022 were 17, 33, 41, 63, 96,121, and 149, with a mean of 74.3. 10.7 cm flux was 106.4, 110.5, 112.1, 121.3, 131.5, 145.5, and 140, with a mean of 123.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 8, 9, 13, 8, and 20, with a mean of 9.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 10, 12, 14, 10, and 18, with a mean of 10.9.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3b5OBNk
[2] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
[3] https://bit.ly/3xvycJO
[4] https://bit.ly/3O0re6B
[5] https://bit.ly/39zqIxk
[6] https://bit.ly/3QubESn
[7] https://www.spaceweather.com
[8] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/12jun22/resistivity.jpg
[9] http://www.arrl.org/field-day
[10] https://youtu.be/pv4QmVfz95A
[11] k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/24/2022

This past reporting week (June 16-22) began with a bang, when the daily sunspot number was 159. But sunspot numbers declined every day to finally reach 80 on June 22.

One new sunspot group emerged on June 15, another on June 16, one more on June 18, and another on June 21.

Average daily sunspot number over the week was 124.6, up substantially from 74.3 the previous seven days.

Average daily solar flux rose from 123.9 to 140.5.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 9.7 to 11.4, and the middle latitude numbers increased one point to 11.9

It was great to see the Sun covered with spots on Spaceweather.com. Use the Archives feature toward the upper right, and you can see the

daily solar images on the left side of the page for any date in the past. I particularly appreciated the image of June 17, our Sun blanketed with sunspots!

Unfortunately, a California wildfire cut off power to the Solar Dynamics Observatory Data Center at Stanford University, so solar images are not being provided, according to Spaceweather.com.

ARRL Field Day is this weekend. What is the outlook?

The latest from US Air Force forecasters Housseal and King at the USAF 557th Weather Wing shows predicted solar flux at 120, 115 and 110 on June 24-26, and Planetary A index of 8, 12 and 15. Field Day is actually on June 25-26, but it is useful to see the prediction for Friday. The planetary A index shoes a moderate but increasing geomagnetic instability.

Newsweek reported a recent sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB[1]

The latest (Thursday night) forecast from USAF shows solar flux at 120 and 115 on June 24-25, 110 on June 26-27, 100 on June 28-29, 105 on June 30, 100 on July 1-2, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 3-7, 130 on July 8-9, 135 on July 10, 140 on July 11-16, then 138, 134, 125 and 121 on July 17-20, then 114, 118 and 105 on July 21-23, 100 on July 24-29, then 105, 110, 115 and 120 on July 30 through August 2.

The planetary A index prediction is 8, 12, and 15 on June 24-26, 5 on June 27 to July 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8-11, 5 on July 12-13, 12 on July 14-16, 10 on July 17, 5 on July 18-19, then 12, 18, 12 and 10 on July 20-23, then 5 on July 24 through August 3, and 8 on August 4-5.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"The distribution of active areas on the Sun according to heliographic latitudes has changed relatively little during the last three solar rotations, therefore the predictions of the overall solar activity level were quite reliable.

"The parameters of the solar wind, measured around the Earth, and the activity of the geomagnetic field had a similar course.

"The highest usable frequencies of the ionospheric layer F2 (MUF) were increased on June 19-20. The sporadic-E layer played the most important role in the shortwave propagation on June 16-19."

The latest space weather video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY[2]

A story about how "We can't reliably predict solar cycles" can be found at:

https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx[3]

I have no idea what prompted an incredible series of news stories late Thursday. Was it a slow news day? Perhaps an indication of a respite from national tragedies?

The following websites contain stories about our Sun, and the emergence of a big spot. Interesting because on Thursday the sunspot number declined to 69 from 80 the day before, and much lower compared to the 124.6 average for the previous seven days:

https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU[4]

https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP[5]

https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA[6]

https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI[7]

https://bit.ly/39R3SBu[8]

https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c[9]

https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ[10]

https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC[11]

https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs[12]

https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC[13]

https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8[14]

https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun[15]

https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O[16]

https://bit.ly/3OjuY38[17]

https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q[18]

https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO[19]

https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo[20]

https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe[21]

https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/[22]

https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5[23]

https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH[24]

https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb[25]

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net[26] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[27] and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[28] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[29] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[30] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[31] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[32] .

Sunspot numbers for June 16 through 22, 2022 were 159, 152, 145, 120, 112, 104, and 80, with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 146.7, 148.9, 140.2, 143.6, 136.5, 138.8, and 128.7, with a mean of 140.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 13, 14, 12, 10, 8, and 11, with a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 14, 14, 15, 10, 10, 10, and 10, with a mean of 11.9.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3xNdZiB
[2] https://youtu.be/whjz9b0kLhY
[3] https://bit.ly/3NiMbbx
[4] https://bit.ly/3zZ30VU
[5] https://bit.ly/3ODJiTP
[6] https://bit.ly/3OEDgCA
[7] https://bit.ly/3bdRWtI
[8] https://bit.ly/39R3SBu
[9] https://bit.ly/3nf1B6c
[10] https://bit.ly/3NieXsZ
[11] https://bit.ly/3nf1QhC
[12] https://youtu.be/EJj_zseYqQs
[13] https://bit.ly/3HOJOMC
[14] https://bit.ly/3yfrIA8
[15] https://bit.ly/3Ngyiun
[16] https://bit.ly/3QMSw1O
[17] https://bit.ly/3OjuY38
[18] https://bit.ly/3yiUY9q
[19] https://bit.ly/3HNMMAO
[20] https://bit.ly/3tXVlDo
[21] https://bit.ly/3HOhvhe
[22] https://inhabitat.com/massive-sunspot-glares-at-the-earth/
[23] https://bit.ly/3Ngzyh5
[24] https://bit.ly/3yhj2cH
[25] https://bit.ly/3QKwcGb
[26] k7ra@arrl.net
[27] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[28] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[29] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[30] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[31] http://k9la.us/
[32] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/01/2022

Solar activity took a dramatic plunge over the recent reporting week (June 23 to 29) but geomagnetic activity stayed exactly the same. Field Day weekend saw rising geomagnetic numbers, with planetary A index at 8, 16 and 23, Friday through Sunday.

On Sunday the geomagnetic activity was a problem, although not severe, with many stations in Field Day reporting increased absorption.  The planetary K index peaked at 5 (a big number) at the end of the UTC Day on Saturday and continued into the early hours of Sunday, which was early Saturday evening here on the West Coast.

This happened because of a crack in Earth's magnetosphere, detailed here: https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9[1]

Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers declined from 124.6 to 49.1, while average daily solar flux dropped from 140.5 to 105.3.

Planetary and middle latitude A-index averages were both the same as the previous week, all numbers around 11.

The prediction from the USAF 557th Weather Wing is not very optimistic, with solar flux peaking at 140 on July 11 to 16.

The prediction shows 10.7 cm solar flux at 90 on July 1, 95 on July 2, 105 on July 3 to 5, then 110, 120, 130 and 135 on July 7 to 10, 140 on July 11 to 16, then 135, 130, 125 and 120 on July 17 to 20, and 115, 110, 105 and 100 on July 21 to 24, 95 on July 25 and 26, 100 on July 27 to 29, then 105, 110, 115, 120 and 125 on July 30 through August 3, then 130 on August 4 and 5, and back to 140 again on August 7 to 12.

Predicted planetary A-index is 5 on July 1 to 7, then 8, 8, 12 and 8 on July 8 to 11, 5 on July 12 and 13, 12 on July 14 to 16, 10 on July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 15 and 10 on July 22 to 25, and 5 on July 26 through August 4, then 8, 12 and 8 on August 5 to 7.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH writes, "Solar activity has declined over the last seven days.  Geomagnetic activity was highest on June 26(G1-class geomagnetic storm broke out around midnight UT on June 25and 26) and was lower on June 28 and
29.  On June 26, a big, bright CME billowed away from the sun's southern hemisphere.  A slow-moving CME that left the sun could pass close to Earth on June 30.  The near miss, if it occurs, could disturb our planet's magnetic field.

A dark filament of magnetism erupted in the sun's northern hemisphere on June 28, but no CME was observed after the explosion. Shortwave propagation conditions were relatively worse on June 26 and 27.  After that, they began to improve, but only very slowly due to the declining solar activity."

A new space weather report and forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space Weather Woman.

https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk[2]

Tomas Bayer of the Department of Geomagnetism, RWC Prague, at the Budkov Observatory wrote this geomagnetic activity summary:

"After the last active events on June 24 to 26, which without a storm event did not exceed the active level (local K-index = 4), we expect a geomagnetic activity decrease to quiet to unsettled level during the coming seven days.

More unsettled geomagnetic activity can be expected about July 3 and 4, and also at the end of the currently forecast period on July 7. Then we expect geomagnetic activity at a quiet to unsettled level." Here are pictures of the Budkov Observatory:

https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv[3]

https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4[4]

How big is our nearest star?

https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6[5]

Cycle forecasts, wrong or right?

https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF[6]

Storm watch, from the popular press:

https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs[7]

Reader David Moore, a frequent contributor, sent this:

https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g[8]

It hasn't been updated recently, but here is a blog devoted to propagation:

http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com[9]

Send your tips, questions, or comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16].

Sunspot numbers for June 23 through 29, 2022 were 69, 60, 31, 33, 32, 71, and 48, with a mean of 49.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.4, 115.4, 108.1, 102, 98.2, 96.1, and 96.2, with a mean of 105.3.  Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 16, 23, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean of 11.9. Middle latitude A index was 12, 8, 14, 15, 15, 11, and 7, with a mean of 11.7.


[1] https://bit.ly/3ONZdQ9
[2] https://youtu.be/0yAS_FpLTsk
[3] https://bit.ly/3ugnUfv
[4] https://bit.ly/3bH9Pl4
[5] https://bit.ly/3yb6cv6
[6] https://bit.ly/3R3HQfF
[7] https://bit.ly/3bGvXfs
[8] https://bit.ly/3Agoo9g
[9] http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/08/2022

On July 7 Spaceweather.com reported a G-1-class geomagnetic storm underway, with possible increase to G-2 class.  They said it was caused by a co-rotating interaction region.  The storm subsided, but then came back early on July 8.

Late on July 7 Spaceweather.com presented this animation of a large new sunspot AR3053 emerging over the sun's eastern horizon:

https://bit.ly/3bYQImG[1]

Notice that unlike here on Earth, the sun's eastern horizon is on the left?  Perhaps we can explain that in a future bulletin.  Your input would be appreciated.

When I suspect HF conditions are disturbed due to geomagnetic activity, I look at the latest K index on this site:

https://bit.ly/3RiFMAh[2]

The left column of K indices starts at 0300 UTC and repeat every three hours.  At the end of the UTC day, an A index number is assigned.

For an even more up to date indicator, I check here: https://bit.ly/3IpOUiQ[3]. Note the 6 hour, 1-day, 3-day and 7 day options in the upper left corner.

Sunspot activity increased this week, with average daily sunspot numbers going from 49.1 to 62.6.  But oddly, average daily solar flux was down slightly from 105.3 to 103.5.

Taking a longer view, solar activity is stronger than it was a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was 34.7 and average solar flux was 86.9 as reported in ARLP027 in 2021.

Spaceweather.com reported that a CME missed Earth on July 1, but it pushed dense solar wind plasma toward us, causing a G1 class geomagnetic storm.  In the few hours past midnight UTC planetary K index was 4, then 5.  Alaska's high latitude college A index was 25 on July 2.

Predicted solar flux for the next month is 128 on July 8, 130 on July 9 and 10, then 128 and 125 on July 11 and 12, 120 on July 13 and 14, then 115, 110, 100, 95 and 98 on July 15 to 19, 95 on July 20 and 21, 98 on July 22 and 23, 100 on July 24 and 25, 102 on July 26, 105 on July 27 and 28, 100 on July 29, 110 on July 30 and 31, 112 on August 1 and 2, 115 on August 3 to 6, 112 on August 7 and 8, 110 on August 9, 108 on August 10 and 11, then 110, 100, 95 and 98 on August 12 to 15.

Predicted planetary A index 15 on July 8, 5 on July 9 to 12, 12 and 15 on July 13 and 14, 12 on July 15 and 16, 10 on July 17, 8 on July 18 to 21, then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on July 22 to 25, 5 on July 26 to 31, then 8, 25, 12 and 8 on August 1 to 4, and 5 on August 5 to 9,then 10, 15, 12 and 10 on August 10 to 13.

The above forecast is from Sadovsky and Thompson at the USAF 557th Weather Wing.  See https://bit.ly/3PcPNNC[4] for an article about their operation.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports: "A slow-moving CME that left the Sun on June 26 finally hit Earth on July 1 and triggered a positive phase of the disturbance with improved ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions.  This was followed by a slight worsening.  Then we observed a slow improvement thanks to increasing activity of the sporadic E layer since 6 July.  There was an even greater chance for so-called short skips in the early hours of July 7.

A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field on July 7th, sparking a G1-class (maybe G2) geomagnetic storm." Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, presents a new video, 108 minutes long:

https://youtu.be/HX0gyP5dqR4[5]

Earthsky update: 

https://bit.ly/3OSNX4V[6]

Thanks to Max White for this:

https://bit.ly/3RgmZpt[7]

https://bit.ly/3nOYBO0[8]

Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net [9].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14].

Sunspot numbers for June 30 through July 6, 2022 were 40, 30, 57, 42, 79, 92, and 98, with a mean of 62.6.  10.7 cm flux was 95.7, 98, 100.2, 102.2, 104.4, 109.4, and 114.6, with a mean of 103.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 7, 19, 8, 21, 4, and 5, with a mean of 9.8.  Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 17, 11, 18, 4, and 5, with a mean of 9.7.


[1] https://bit.ly/3bYQImG
[2] https://bit.ly/3RiFMAh
[3] https://bit.ly/3IpOUiQ
[4] https://bit.ly/3PcPNNC
[5] https://youtu.be/HX0gyP5dqR4
[6] https://bit.ly/3OSNX4V
[7] https://bit.ly/3RgmZpt
[8] https://bit.ly/3nOYBO0
[9] http://arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/15/2022

Rising solar activity over the past reporting week (July 7 to 13) was reflected in increased sunspot numbers and solar flux and rising geomagnetic activity as well.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 62.6 to 102.1, with the peak value at 134 on Monday, July 11.  Average daily solar flux rose from 103.5 to 147.4, with peak values at 164.9 and 164.8 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

A new sunspot emerged on July 7, another on July 10, and one more on July 11.  Total sunspot area peaked on July 11.

Planetary A index averaged out at 12.4 (up from 9.8 last week) while the middle-latitude A index went from 9.7 to 10.6.

Toward the end of the UTC day on July 7, Alaska's college A index was 46, a very high value, while the last four K index readings of the day and the next two were 6, 6, 7, 5, 5 and 5.

This was caused by a co-rotating interaction region, sparking a G-1 class geomagnetic storm.

Look here for info on co-rotating interaction regions:

https://bit.ly/3P91Xrp[1]

https://bit.ly/3IBOtlm[2]

https://bit.ly/3yDwxlU[3]

The Thursday night prediction from USAF shows improvement from the Wednesday outlook, with solar flux at 170 on July 15 and 16, 165 on July 17 and 18, 160 on July 19 and 20, then 155 and 145 on July 21 and 22, 135 on July 23 and 24, then 138 and 148 on July 25 and 26, 150 on July 27 to 29, 160 on July 30 clear out to August 7, then 155, 145 and 135 on August 8 to 10, 138 on August 11 and 12, then 128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, then 130 on August 15 to 17, and 135 on August 18 to 20.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on July 15 to 21, then 10, 20 and 12 on July 22 to 24, 8 again on July 25 through August 2, then 12 and 10 on August 3 and 4, and 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12 on August 8 to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on August 18 to 20, and 8 on August 21 through the end of the month.

OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity continued to rise as predicted, a little faster than we anticipated.  The area of sunspots increased significantly. We observed several long and large filaments, especially on July 11 and 12. Geomagnetically calmer days 9 and 10 and 13 and 14 July were replaced by G1-Minor Geomagnetic Storm conditions on July 8 and 12. The influx of protons of solar origin intensified after the July 9 eruption (with a maximum at 1348 UT) lasted until July 12. Shortwave propagation conditions varied erratically, worst on 8 July, better starting on 11 July."

W5CTD wrote on July 9 that the previous Saturday he was playing around with a 20 meter Hustler mobile antenna mag-mounted on his car.

He was puzzled at first when he heard stations calling "CQ Contest", til he looked it up and found out it was the IARU DX Contest.

Chuck did not mention what mode he used, so I will assume it was SSB.  He was surprised to work many European stations, in fact, the list seemed to include all the European countries.

Signals were strong, and he noted that his antenna was non-directional, and on his car parked on the street.

The opening lasted from 0200 to 0400 UTC, but by 0430 the opening was over. "One improbable and amazing night."

KS7T in Montana, who I worked recently on 17 meter FT8, sent me this in an email, which I edited:

"I accidentally came across condx on 15 meter CW during the IARU contest that I haven't experienced there since the ARRL CW contest back in February 2000 when I was working Europe from Montana at 2 am local MST.

20 started showing some signs of fading to EU right before 11 a.m. local and when that happens my instinct usually switches me to 40 but not this time.  My subconscious was begging me to check out 15. So I did.  First I heard a B4 (China?), so tuned around expecting to hear JAs.  There were none, but what I did hear was many headquarters signals from all over EU.  Had been on 15 earlier in the daytime and heard and worked two of those plus CR3DX, but that was it.

I wasn't expecting to work any of those EU stns I just heard because a lot of them were weak, a few were S9 but fired up on 15 and just had to give 'em a call.  Well, not only did I work all 19 of them, but on first call, too.  Had 22 qs in all between 11pm and midnight on 15.

The other 3 were two VK stns and the B4 who was a struggle.  He got my call OK but took several minutes to get the 06 through to him.

Last night got on 6 and it had a bit of an opening to the east coast but just a few 4s and 2 1s were seen.  Worked some 9s and K4RW in SC.

I have 44 states and one JA on 6 meters since 2020 either with my tribander or a homebrew 6 el vertical beam on the ground running 50w.

I don't think I have ever seen a year like this one propagation wise in my 66 years in ham radio.  It has been quite frustrating at times but also very surprising, too."

New video a few days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:

https://youtu.be/zd2MQhPmMwM[4]

Next week I hope to get reports from N2CG about his WM2XCS 8 meter (49 MHz) beacon.

Send your tips, reports, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

Sunspot numbers for July 7 through 13, 2022 were 80, 81, 89, 113, 134, 117, and 101, with a mean of 102.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.3, 129.6, 136.9, 153, 161, 164.9, and 164.8, with a mean of 147.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 20, 19, 6, 7, 12, 18, and 5, with a mean of 12.4.  Middle latitude A index was 15, 14, 6, 8, 10, 16, and 5, with a mean of 10.6.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3P91Xrp
[2] https://bit.ly/3IBOtlm
[3] https://bit.ly/3yDwxlU
[4] https://youtu.be/zd2MQhPmMwM/
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/22/2022

Solar activity increased over this reporting week, July 14 to 20, with average daily sunspot number rising from 102.1 to 137.3, and average daily solar flux from 147.4 to 157.6.

Peak sunspot number was 166 on July 17, and peak solar flux was 171.4 on July 15.

Geomagnetic activity peaked on July 19 when planetary A index was 26 and middle latitude A index at 19.  Alaska's high latitude college A index was 43, with the K index at 6, 5, 5, 6 and 5 at 0900 to 2000 UTC.

Average daily planetary A index decreased this week from 12.4 to 9.4.

A crack opened in the earth's magnetic field on July 19, allowing

solar wind to stream in.  It is documented here:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/19jul22/data.jpg[1]

At 2241 UTC on July 20 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic warning.  An increase in geomagnetic activity is expected over 22 to 24 July due to the onset of coronal hole high speed wind streams."

Here is the latest forecast from USAF.  Predicted solar flux seems promising with flux values peaking around 160 on July 30 through August 7 and again from August 26 through early September. Predicted flux values are 120 on July 22, then 118 on July 23 to 25, then 116, 114, 110 and 120 on July 26 to 29, 160 on July 30 through August 7, then 155, 145 and 138 on August 8 to 10, then 138 on August 11 and 12, then 128 and 125 on August 13 and 14, 130 on August 15 to 17, 135 on August 18 to 20, 138 and 148 on August 21 and 22, 150 on August 23 to 25, and 160 on August 26 to September 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 40, 14 and 10 on July 22 to 25, 5 on July 26 to 28, 8 on July 29 through August 2, then 12 and 10 on August 3 and 4, 8 on August 5 to 7, then 15, 28 and 12 on August 8 to 10, 8 on August 11 to 17, then 15, 20 and 12 on August 18 to 20, and 8 again on August 21 to 29.

OK1HH wrote:

"A week ago we commemorated the BASTILLE DAY EVENT.  Twenty-two years ago (on the French national holiday of July 14, 2000), the Sun sent out a shock wave that reached the edge of the solar system. The subatomic particles accelerated by the eruption showered satellites and penetrated deep into the Earth's atmosphere. Radiation sensors on the Earth's surface detected a rare GLE - a ground-level event.  And if solar activity continues to grow as it is now, we will see something similar in the years to come.

The most notable recent event was a crack that opened in Earth's magnetic field on July 19th, allowing solar wind to enter our planet's magnetosphere.  The result was a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. Starting today, July 21, a slow-moving CME could hit Earth's magnetic field (thrown into space by the July 15 solar flare).  The high-speed stream of the solar wind should follow closely behind the CME.  Its arrival on July 22nd could intensify any storm the CME creates, possibly extending the disturbance until July 23rd.

In addition, solar activity will decrease in the coming days, which combined with G1 is not good for shortwave propagation conditions."

Rich, K1HTV wrote:

"Yesterday evening, July 19, 2022 there was an incredible 6 Meter DX opening between VK4 and many lucky stations in the U.S. as well as the Ontario area.

At 2311 UTC I decoded VK4MA completing a QSO with KD3CQ in southern MD. I was next in line, and quickly worked VK4MA from my FM18ap Virginia QTH.  I was followed by W3UR, W3LPL, AB3CV, N3OC and W3KX, all in MD and KF2T and K4SO in VA.

Two minutes after working VK4MA I also worked VK4WTN, I also copied but did not work VK4HJ.

I continued to decode the VK4 stations until 2358 UTC. I copied VK4MA working K8SIX in MI, W7XU in SD, N0TB in MD, VE3EDY and as far northeast as NZ3M in PA, N2OO, W2XI and W2IRT in NJ, W1VD in CT, WA1EAZ in MA and K1TOL in Maine, which was Paul's longest ever 6 Meter DX contact.  VK4MA reported logging 27 stations during his almost one hour long DX opening to North America.

To say the least, it was a very memorable opening on the Magic Band. The solar flux was near 180 a few days earlier and a K index of 5 earlier in the day of the opening.  Was it F2 skip?  Was it TEP? Was it SSSP?  (Short Path Summer Solstice Propagation, see https://bit.ly/3oswSD3[2]).

It was some kind of chordal propagation, probably linked to the Es opening from the East to Mid-America at the time.  I'll leave it up to the propagation experts to figure out what mode it was."

I assume he was using FT8, as Rich said "decoded."

Jon Jones, N0JK responded:

"A great report from Rich. I was monitoring at the time.  Saw many people north and east of Kansas calling VK, but no decodes of VK stations.  What a great opening!

As for the propagation mode - my theory is the opening yesterday was a "mirror image" of the December-January USA-VK openings.  So sporadic-E on each end of the path connecting to TEP to cross the geomagnetic equator.  I have seen K0GU work VK stations in past summers on 6 in a similar fashion.  The high solar flux helped the TEP part of the path.  But sporadic-E created the magic."

George, N2CG has been operating on the 8 meter band with special permission from the FCC.  Below is an edited version of some of the notes he sent me.

"Back in October 2021 I received from the FCC an experimental radio station construction permit and license to operate on 40.66 to 40.7 MHz and issued the call sign WM2XCS.

On 26 January 2022 WM2XCS began transmitting as a CW beacon on 40.685 MHz at 10 Watts output into a vertical ground plane antenna.

On 26 May I made some changes by removing the vertical antenna and in its place installed a 4 element 7 dBd gain Yagi mounted 30 feet above ground beaming toward Europe and increased the beacon output power from 10 Watts to 20 Watts.

Now using shorter ID message at 12 WPM, 'VVV DE WM2XCS/B FN20WV NNJ AR'.  I also increased the output power from 20 Watts to 30 Watts that equates to 150 Watts ERP which is the maximum power allowed on my experimental license.

I recently learned that Borut S50B located in Vipava, Slovenia heard the WM2XCS CW beacon on 40.685 MHz on 13 June 2022 at 2054 UTC RST 539."

WM2XCS/B currently operates daily from 1000 to 0300 UTC.

You can send reception reports to n2cg@verizon.net[3].

I will reply via postal mail with my unique WM2XCS QSL card. Indicate in your reception report the date, UTC time, frequency, RST report, mode and any remarks.

If you hear me in QSO with another authorized 8m station, please indicate the call sign of that station I was in QSO with.  As 8m propagation allows I will be looking to have CW and SSB QSOs with stations in Ireland, Slovenia and South Africa who currently are allowed to operate on 8m.

I also encouraged reception of WM2XCS/B or WM2XCS to be spotted on DXMAPS www.dxmaps.com which lists 40 MHz reception reports."

George hopes that the FCC might allocate an 8 meter segment for radio amateurs, but there may be objections from operators of a nationwide network of automated high elevation stations that use meteor scatter to report mountain snow pack data.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8-meter_band[4] for some surprising history of amateur radio on 8 meters.

Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW reports:

https://youtu.be/8wy9TmC9LqY[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for July 14 through 20, 2022 were 133, 141, 153, 166, 125, 114, and 129, with a mean of 137.3.  10.7 cm flux was 169, 171.4, 176.2, 161.2, 149.4, 144.1, and 132.2, with a mean of 157.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 8, 7, 5, 8, 26, and 7, with a mean of 9.4.  Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 9, 6, 10, 19, and 7,with a mean of 9.


[1] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2022/19jul22/data.jpg
[2] https://bit.ly/3oswSD3
[3] http://verizon.net
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8-meter_band
[5] https://youtu.be/8wy9TmC9LqY
[6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/29/2022

Although images of the sun this reporting week, July 21 to 27, showed plenty of sunspots, only two new spots emerged, one on July 21, and another on July 25.

Another new sunspot appeared on July 28, but the sunspot number declined to 50 from 52 the day before.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 137.3 to 91.1, and average daily solar flux softened by 50 points to 107.6.

The headline on spaceweather.com on July 28 said, "Quiet Sun."

Geomagnetic indicators began this reporting week fairly active, with planetary A index at 22, then it quickly quieted down to an average of 11.7 for the week, higher than the 9.4 average reported last week.  Average middle-latitude A index increased from 9 to 10.4.

A look back a year ago shows this cycle is progressing nicely.  In ARLP030 in 2021 average daily sunspot number was just 48.9, and average daily solar flux only 81.3.

A year prior the average daily sunspot number in 2020 was just 3.1! That is because there were five days with no sunspots, then two days with a sunspot number of only 11, which is the minimum non-zero sunspot number.

A sunspot number of 11 does not mean 11 sunspots.  It means there was just 1 sunspot group (which counts for 10 points) and one sunspot in that group, counting for 1, producing a total of 11, because of the arcane historical method of counting sunspots.

Predicted solar flux shows it peaking at 130 on August 11.

Predicted flux is 92 on July 29 to 31, 90 on August 1, 88 on August 2 to 4, 92 on August 5, 115 on August 6, 113 on August 7 and 8, then 120, 125, 130 and 125 on August 9 to 12, 120 on August 13 to 15, 118 on August 16 and 17, then 114 and 110 on August 18 and 19, 108 on August 20 and 21, then 106 and 102 on August 22 and 23, 100 on August 24 to 27, 108 on August 28 and 29, 110 on August 30 and 31, 115 on September 1 and 2, and 113 on September 3 and 4.  Solar flux peaks again at 130 on September 7.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 and 12 on July 29 and 30, 8 on July 31 and August 1, 5 on August 2, 8 on August 3 and 4, 5 on August 5 to 10, 8 on August 11 and 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, 22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25, 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, and 5 on September 1 to 6.

USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report, 2200 UTC on 28 Jul 2022

https://bit.ly/3votD3A[1]

OK1HH wrote on July 28:

"Over the last seven days, solar activity has been steadily decreasing.  From some class C flares to the 'almost no chance of flares' announcement today.  But we observed some interesting anomalies.  For example, geomagnetic disturbance on July 21 caused two improvements in ionospheric shortwave propagation conditions around 1400 and 1930 UTC. A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on July 23rd at 0259 UTC.  The impact triggered a G1-class geomagnetic storm and in the early hours of the morning UTC, 6-meter band users were able to establish a series of contacts between central Europe and the US East Coast.

The proton density in the solar wind, which suddenly rose on 27 July between 2000 and 2100 UTC, was accompanied by a significant improvement in shortwave propagation between Europe and the Caribbean, while closed at the same time the path between Europe and North America.

A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north of the solar equator that crossed the central meridian on July 26 is expected to influence solar wind starting July 29.  Geomagnetic activity will increase again."

KD6JUI wrote:

"I go out in my kayak once per week to operate QRP.  Today, Thursday, July 28, I set out on Lake Solano (northern CA) not expecting much action due to a low solar flux (93.4) and predicted MUF of about 14 MHz.

When I first checked 17m I heard a CW pileup apparently going after a Swiss station.  I had a couple contacts on 17 and 20m.  A couple hours later, I moved from the middle of the lake to the shade of a tree along the bank (temps were in the high 90s).  My loop antenna was half surrounded by foliage, which I figured would interfere with my signal.  Nonetheless, I gave 17m CW a try again, and contacted F8IHE almost immediately.  All he could copy was my call sign, but that was enough for me!

Always a surprise."

What are sunspots?

https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW[2]

Fun Morse Code app:

https://morsle.fun/help/[3]

A fun one-hour twice weekly relaxed CW activity, the Slow Speed Test, every Friday and Sunday:

http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11].

Sunspot numbers for July 21 through 27, 2022 were 124, 107, 96, 80, 100, 78, and 53, with a mean of 91.1.  10.7 cm flux was 121.7, 114.7, 110.5, 107.1, 102.3, 98.8, and 98, with a mean of 107.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 11, 17, 9, 6, 8, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.  Middle latitude A index was 14, 11, 15, 9, 8, 7, and 9, with a mean of 10.4.


[1] https://bit.ly/3votD3A
[2] https://bit.ly/3vk6GhW
[3] https://morsle.fun/help/
[4] http://www.k1usn.com/sst.html
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/05/2022

Solar activity continued to decline this week, with average daily sunspot number dropping from 91.1 to 36.6 and average solar flux at 95.7, down from 107.6 the week prior.

Thursday's sunspot number was above the average for the previous seven days at 52.  Solar flux on Thursday was above the previous seven day average at 108.8.  The 2300 UTC flux was 111.3.

We've not seen lower values since mid-April in bulletin ARLP015 with average sunspot number at 34.4, and the end of February in ARLP008 with average solar flux at 95.4.

To track solar cycle 25 progress, I like to compare current averages against the same numbers from last year.  In the 2021 version of ARLP031, average daily sunspot numbers were 33.1 (lower by 3.5 from this week's report), and average solar flux was 83, down 12.7 from the current average.

The lower activity was quite noticeable over the past week on 10 and 12 meters, but there must still be some daily sporadic-E, from what I've seen on an email list devoted to 10 meter propagation beacons. I have one myself, K7RA/B transmitting CW from CN87uq on 28.2833 MHz.  The outlook from the USAF space weather group shows a meager forecast for solar flux, this one from forecasters Hoseth and Strandness on Thursday. The latest forecast is a bit more optimistic than the Wednesday version, with solar flux at 112 instead of 100 for the next few days.

Predicted solar flux is 112 on August 5 to 7, 110 on August 8 and 9, 112 on August 10, 114 on August 11 and 12, 98 on August 13 and 14, 100 on August 15 and 16, 98 on August 17 and 18, then 96, 96 and 98 on August 19 to 21, 96 again on August 22 and 23, 92 on August 24 to 28, 90 and 92 on August 29 and 30, 94 on August 31 through September 1, 96 on September 2 and 3, then 98 on September 4 to 10, and 100 on September 11 and 12.

Predicted planetary A index 5 on August 5, 8 on August 6 and 7, then 5, 14, 12, 18 and 12 on August 8 to 12, 5 on August 13 to 16, then 22 on August 17, 15 on August 18 and 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 25, then 10 and 12 on August 26 and 27, 5 on August 28 and 29, then 12 and 10 on August 30 and 31, 5 on September 1 to 6, 8 on September 7 to 8, and 5 on September 9 to 12. OK1HH wrote:

"Throughout the period, solar activity was low, the Earth's magnetic field quiet to unsettled.  Shortwave propagation conditions were average to slightly below average.

An interesting phenomenon for observers may have been a giant solar prominence - a loop of plasma on the sun's eastern limb. But even more interesting was the report of a farside sunspot.  So big it is changing the way the sun vibrates.  Helioseismic maps reveal its acoustic echo not far behind the sun's southeastern limb! The sunspot will turn to face Earth a few days from now."

Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW put out a new forecast on July 29.

https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc[1]

Recently Dr. Skov sent this out (I edited) to her Patreon subscribers:

"This week the Sun is a mixed bag of active regions, coronal holes

and solar eye candy.  Although we aren't expecting any strong storming at Earth, we do have a big-flare player in view and are expecting some fast solar wind over the next few days (and then again sporadically next week).  This might give aurora photographers at high latitudes a brief show, but it likely wont be much, if any better than the weak shows we got this past week.

Solar flux is finally back into the triple digits, which means decent radio propagation again on Earth's day side and along with the reasonably low risk for radio blackouts, amateur radio operators as well as GPS users should enjoy better than average signal reception (and transmission)."

I like to watch this link to see what might be coming over the next few days on our Sun:

https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[2]

On Thursday night over on the left I am seeing lots of white splotches, perhaps indicating areas of magnetic complexity and maybe sunspots arriving soon.  The horizon is at -90 degrees.

Although the STEREO mission has survived way past the initial design life, one of the probes has been gone for a few years, leaving us a very limited view of the sun.

I would love to see a replacement probe, which I have heard might cost twenty-million dollars.  Or perhaps a brand new advanced design?  Perhaps one of our domestic billionaires fascinated by space flight could make this happen.

Newsweek has solar news:

https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB[3]

Large sunspot emerging:

https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ[4]

Ginormous:

https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to: k7ra@arrl.net[6].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for July 28 through August 3, 2022 were 50, 40, 27, 39, 32, 31, and 37, with a mean of 36.6.  10.7 cm flux was 93, 90.8, 94.3, 95.4, 97.8, 98.8, and 99.9, with a mean of 95.7.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 7, 11, 8, 9, and 8, with a mean of 7.7.  Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 12, 8, 10, and 7, with a mean of 8.6.


[1] https://youtu.be/F3T4VI1VSPc
[2] https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[3] https://bit.ly/3oZmYcB
[4] https://bit.ly/3oXVMuQ
[5] https://bit.ly/3QpmU1A
[6] http://arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/12/2022

Solar activity did a rebound this week, back to more active levels.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 36.6 to 65.4.

Average daily 10.7 cm solar flux rose from 95.7 to 111.9.

Solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to rise, with average planetary A index going from 7.7 to 14.4, and middle latitude numbers from 8.6 to 12.1.

An improved outlook shows solar flux over the next month peaking at 116 on September 2 to 4.  The forecast from USAF/NOAA on Thursday evening was improved from Wednesday.

A look at ARLP032 from 2021 gives a perspective on solar cycle progress.  A year ago, average sunspot number was 6 and average solar flux was just 74.8.  Quite a difference from 65.4 and 111.9 during the past week.

Predicted flux values are 115 on August 12 to 14, 110 on August 15 to 18, 108 on August 19, 104 on August 20 and 21, then 98, 100, 102, 100, 102, and 100 on August 22 to 27, then 102 on August 28 to 30, then 108 and 114 on August 31 and September 1, 116 on September 2 to 4, 112 on September 5 to 7.  110 on September 8 and 9, then 108 on September 10 to 12, 106 on September 13, then 104 on September 14 to 16, 102 on September 17 and 98 on September 18.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on August 12, 5 on August 13 to 16 then 10, 12 and 15 on August 17 to 19, 8 on August 20 and 21, 5 on August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August 31 through September 2, then 14, 18, 14, 10 and 8 on September 3 to 7, and 5 on September 8 to 12, then 22 on September 13, 15 on September 14 and 15, 8 on September 16, and 5 on September 17 to 22.

OK1HH commented:

"A geomagnetic disturbance rarely comes completely unexpectedly. And even more so in a situation where its source cannot be located (or selected from several locations).  Moreover, lasting five days. All this happened between August 7th and 11th.

At higher latitudes, the 'STEVE' phenomenon was sighted on August 7 (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement).  STEVE is a recent discovery.  It looks like an aurora, but it's not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE[1]

It all started with a positive phase of disturbance in the ionosphere, when shortwave propagation improved.  The development continued with a deterioration of propagation in the negative phase on August 8, followed by generally below average conditions in the following days.  With a strong influence of sporadic layer E, whose activity usually increases as the Perseids meteor shower approaches maximum (expected on 12 and 13 August).  They are also called the 'Tears of St. Lawrence'.

Starting August 12 onward, we expect a longer mostly quiet period."

NASA expects increasing activity:

https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5[2]

Always appreciate The Sun Now page from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[3]

Yet another cycle prediction method:

https://bit.ly/3SKm29J[4]

Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW has a 200 minute part 2 of a course on ground effects:

https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10]. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for August 4 through 10, 2022 were 52, 69, 69, 87, 63, 58, and 60, with a mean of 65.4.  10.7 cm flux was 108.8, 112.2, 116.3, 116.1, 113, 109.4, and 107.6, with a mean of 111.9.  Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 4, 24, 31, 19, and 11, with a mean of 14.4.  Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 20, 21, 15, and 10, with a mean of 12.1.


[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEVE
[2] https://bit.ly/3QjOLk5
[3] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[4] https://bit.ly/3SKm29J
[5] https://youtu.be/cOom5LQ_LBY
[6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/19/2022

At 2334 UTC on August 17, the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

"Periods of G1 conditions expected during 19 and 20 Aug due to the combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream and several coronal mass ejections observed in the last few days.  There is a chance of isolated periods of G2 over 19 and 20 Aug."

Local TV newscasts here in Seattle noted the possibility of aurora Thursday night, although observers would need to travel to dark areas away from the city for any chance of successful viewing.  They recommended using a tripod mounted camera pointed north with a long exposure time.  This is good advice, as often the dramatic aurora photos are done this way and viewing with the naked eye you see a much less dramatic image.

Last week we noted increasing solar activity, and it continued. Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 36.6 to 65.4 last week, to 95.6 in the current reporting period, August 11 to 17.  Average daily solar flux went from 95.7 to 111.9 last week, and 123.7 this week.

But solar flux values have pulled back in recent days, with a peak of 134.3 at 1700 UTC on August 15, followed by the standard 2000 UTC local noon readings of 128.5, 122.7, and 116.5 on August 16 to 18.

Predicted solar flux is 125 and 120 August 19 and 20, 115 on August 21 to 23, then 110 on August 24 and 25, then 100, 94, 96 and 98 on August 26 to 29, then 100, 108 and 114 on August 30 through September 1, then 116 on September 2 and 3, 112 on September 4, 108 on September 5 and 6, then 115, 120, 124 and 126 on September 7 to 10, 124 on September 11 and 12, then 122, 118, 112, 108 and 102 on September 13 to 17, then 100 on September 18 and 19, and 94 on September 20 to 23, then climbing to 116 at the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 30, 25 and 8 on August 19 to 21, 5 on August 22 to 26, 12 on August 27, 8 on August 28 to 30, 5 on August 31 through September 2, then 24, 28, 18 and 10 on September 3 to 6, and 14, 8, 10 and 8 on September 7 to 10, then 5, 5, 20 and 15 on September 11 to 14, then 12, 12 and 8 on September 15 to 17, and 5 on September 18 to 22, then 12 on September 23, and 8 on September 24 to 26.

OK1HH writes:

"A week ago (since August 12) solar activity started to increase very slowly.  Since August 13, the eruptive activity in the active sunspot AR3079 in the southwest of the solar disk has increased.  On August 14 it was already possible to predict massive geomagnetic disturbances for August 17 and 18 based on the observed CMEs.  The solar wind speed slowly decreased until August 16.  In the meantime, eruptive activity increased in AR3078, where moderate strength eruptions were observed daily since 15 August.

The sunspot group AR3078 developed a delta-class magnetic field, continued to grow, and continued to produce medium-sized flares that caused minor shortwave radio blackouts.  The strongest eruption to date, an M5 category burst on August 16 at 0758 UTC caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Indian Ocean.

A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) added their effect to a possible 'cannibal CME event' (if a second CME could overtake and engulf the first, creating a mishmash of the two).  The forecast for a massive geomagnetic disturbance has been extended to August 17 to 19.

Active sunspot AR3078 is producing strong solar flares of class M for the third consecutive day.  The most recent, an M2 explosion on 17 August (1345 UT), hurled a plume of cool dark plasma into space.

But like the other CMEs produced by AR3078 this week, this one will pass through the southern edge of Earth's impact zone.  So the disturbance won't be as widespread as if the CME had hit Earth directly.

The increased activity on 15 to 17 August caused improved shortwave propagation conditions and a noticeable increase in MUF.  The best day was August 17.  A significant deterioration and decrease in MUF occurred on 18 August.  In the following days, the solar flare activity and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances start to decrease.  A calming trend can be expected after about 22 August."

Tamitha Skov says "Don't worry, this is not a Carrington Event", in an 84 minute video titled "Incoming Solar Storm Crush":

https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo[1]

Even Newsweek is reporting it:

https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw[2]

https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg[3]

And of course, British tabloids:

https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc[4]

And NOAA:

https://bit.ly/3A537Ob[5]

Violent solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw[6]

Strong storm:

https://bit.ly/3c998kT[7]

Aurora in Montana:

https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK[8]

Radiation storm!

https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR[9]

John Kludt, K7SYS asked, "I recently moved from the Atlanta, Georgia, area to Sandpoint, Idaho. My question is that in geomagnetic forecasts they make a distinction between 'mid-latitudes' and 'high-latitudes.'   Where do 'mid-latitudes' stop and 'high-latitudes' begin?

The other mystery to me is looking at my logbook since moving here two years ago, it would seem I was working more Dx at solar cycle minimum than I am now.  The station is the same for the entire period and all of the numbers I track on my antennas are stable.

One of the conclusions I have come to, maybe incorrectly, is 'The good news is the sun is more active and the bad news is the sun is more active.'   As with so many things, there is no free lunch."

My response: I don't know of any standards specifying what defines high latitude or low latitude, except for North America, Atlanta at 33.8 degrees north would be low latitude, Sandpoint at 48.3 degrees would be moderately high for North America, and Fairbanks, Alaska at 64.8 degrees would be high.

I remember years ago K7VV was living in Alaska and reported to me that during a particularly long period of high geomagnetic activity, there just was no HF propagation, due to the concentration of the disturbance closer to the poles.

You might notice better propagation from Atlanta.  I've noticed using PSKreporter.info on 10 meters FT8, looking at the "country of callsign" setting, often it shows lots of propagation from the SE states and nothing here in the northwest.  Don't know why that is, but gradually the propagation will drift out this way.  So Atlanta being 3 hours earlier will show 10 meter propagation before we get it here.  It seems to me that often HF propagation from southern states is better than it is here for us in the Pacific Northwest, what Jack Bock, K7ZR (SK) referred to as the "sufferin' sevens".

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12]

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13].

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14]

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15].

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16].

Sunspot numbers for August 11 through 17, 2022 were 58, 97, 116, 104, 92, 119, and 83, with a mean of 95.6.  10.7 cm flux was 114.8, 119.5, 124.2, 125.5, 130.6, 128.5, and 122.7, with a mean of 123.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 7, 10, 7, 6, 5, and 31, with a mean of 11.7.  Middle latitude A index was 12, 6, 10, 9, 6, 5, and 22, with a mean of 10.


[1] https://youtu.be/TCypTeodMYo
[2] https://bit.ly/3K0S5hw
[3] https://bit.ly/3PzcTOg
[4] https://bit.ly/3wb0zgc
[5] https://bit.ly/3A537Ob
[6] https://bit.ly/3K3uQDw
[7] https://bit.ly/3c998kT
[8] https://bit.ly/3QCbzeK
[9] https://bit.ly/3AwWuFR
[10] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/26/2022

On August 18 a new sunspot group emerged, another on August 21, then two more on August 23, and three more on August 25, when the sunspot number jumped to 94 from 46 the previous day.  Total sunspot area more than doubled from Wednesday to Thursday.

Solar activity overall was down slightly for the reporting week, August 18-24, with average daily sunspot number declining from 60.8 during the previous seven days to 58.7, and average solar flux from 123.7 to 104.5.

Planetary A index changed from an average of 11.7 to 12.6, and middle latitude A index measured at a single magnetometer in Virginia was 11, after an average of 10 last week.

As an indicator of rising solar activity, a year ago this bulletin reported average daily sunspot number at 17.7, 41 points below this week's report.

The Thursday night forecast from the 557th weather wing at Offut Air Force Base shows a probable peak of solar flux for the near term at 130 on September 11 and again on October 8.

Predicted solar flux is 120 on August 26-27 (up from 105 in the previous day's forecast), 115 on August 28, 110 on August 29-31, 115 on September 1-2, 116 on September 3-4, 112 on September 5, 108 on September 6-7, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on September 8-11, then 128, 120, 118, 105 and 102 on September 12-16, 98 on September 17-18, 96 on September 19-21, 94 on September 22-24, then 92, 98 and 100 on September 25-27, then 108, 114, 116 and 116 on September 28 through October 1.

Predicted planetary A index has some surprises in store, at 5 on August 26, 8 on August 27-28, 10 on August 29, 5 on August 30-31, 8 on September 1-2, then jumping way up to 30, 38 and 20 on September 3-5, then 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 6-10, 5 on September 11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on September 18-20, 5 on September 21-22, 12 on September 23, then  8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then back up to 30, 38, 20, 15 and 18 on September 30 through October 4, an apparent echo of the prediction for September 3-7.

The above predictions were from USAF forecasters Easterlin and Sadovsky.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"As in the previous solar rotation, the Sun's activity continued to decline. Geomagnetic activity, however, has increased. More pronounced eruptive activity was mainly in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk.

"The active sunspot, AR3078, produced several M-class solar flares and more than a dozen C-class flares. Most of the eruptions hurled particles into space. The first CME hit Earth's magnetic field on August 20. The next active sunspot group, AR3085, behaved similarly after reaching the same active heliographic longitude as the previous sunspot, AR3078.

"Sunspot AR3085 grew more than ten times larger and turned into a double sunspot group with cores almost as wide as the Earth. Finally, a new sunspot, AR3088, appeared, again in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.

"Attention is now drawn to a large coronal hole in the southeastern solar disk that could affect the solar wind after it appears near the central meridian.

"With the current type of development, predictions of further events are more difficult than usual. Either way, we now expect a quasi-periodic increase in solar activity."

Here is a news article about a large sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj[1]

British tabloid sunspot news:

https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz[2]

Here is an article about a planet-sized sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy[3]

A Nature World News story about a big sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3csY16x[4]

A report about eleven discoveries and the coming solar max, from American Geophysical Union:

https://bit.ly/3R95HcW[5]

From Space.com, the threat of unexpected flares:

https://bit.ly/3AL32AS[6]

Here is a paper on solar rotations:

https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux[7]

I did not include an article titled "Destructive solar storms are possible as Sun approaches height of its terrifying solar cycle." The article claimed that Solar Cycle 25 peak will be a year from now, rather than the consensus prediction of 2025.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for August 18 through 24, 2022 were 83, 74, 56, 56, 44, 52, and 46, with a mean of 58.7. 10.7 cm flux was 116.5, 105.4, 101.5, 97, 102.6, 100.9, and 107.8, with a mean of 104.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 20, 14, 14, 7, 4, and 3, with a mean of 12.6. Middle latitude A index was 19, 15, 16, 13, 7, 3, and 4, with a mean of 11.
 


[1] https://bit.ly/3KhmOHj
[2] https://bit.ly/3CvCdSz
[3] https://bit.ly/3PL6IXy
[4] https://bit.ly/3csY16x
[5] https://bit.ly/3R95HcW
[6] https://bit.ly/3AL32AS
[7] https://bit.ly/3e0p5ux
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/02/2022

The past week saw many interesting events. The DRAO observatory at Penticton, British Columbia (the source of 10.7 cm solar flux measurements) was overwhelmed by solar flares, and at 2000 UTC on August 28 reported a solar flux value of 251.9, and the next day at 1700 UTC, a value of 357.1.

The 2000 UTC local noon numbers are the official solar flux number for each day, so for the August 28 value I chose to report the 2300 UTC number of 133.5 instead.

I checked with astronomer Andrew Gray at Penticton, and he reported, "The high values are indeed because of solar activity, both yesterday and today flares occurred right during our flux measurements."

Solar activity increased this reporting week (August 25-31) with average daily sunspot numbers rising from 58.7 to 74.9 and solar flux from 104.5 to 123.8.

Without that correction for August 28, average daily solar flux would have been 140.8 instead of 123.8.

I have seen these errors in the past, but they are rare. When they occur, there is only 1/3 chance they will happen during the daily 2000 UTC reading, which sends them into the official daily solar flux data.

Note that NOAA did not correct the high false value:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[1]

Average daily A index was a little lower, the planetary values shifting from 12.6 to 10.1 and middle latitude from 11 to 9.4.

Three new sunspot groups appeared on August 25 at the beginning of the reporting week, but none until September 1, with two new sunspot groups. The daily sunspot number rose from 42 on Wednesday to 67 on Thursday. Total sunspot area peaked on August 27.

Predicted solar flux is more optimistic in the Thursday night version, as opposed to the Wednesday forecast reported in the ARRL Letter.

Instead of 110 on September 2, the latest forecast is 116, 118 and 118 on September 2-4, 115 on September 5, 110 on September 6-8, then 118, 124, 130 and 128 on September 9-12, then 120, 117, 105 and 102 on September 13-16, then 98 on September 17-18, then 104, 102 and 108 on September 19-21, 118 on September 22-23, 124 and 125 on September 24-25, 120 on September 26-28, 115 on September 29 to October 1, then 112 on October 2, 108 on October 3-4, then 115, 120, 124 and 130 on October 5-8.

Flux values may briefly dip below 100 in mid-October.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15, 30, 25 and 15 on September 2-6, 10 on September 7-8, 12 and 8 on September 9-10, 5 on September 11-12, then 12, 15 and 10 on September 13-15, 8 on September 16-17, 5 on September 18-23, then 14, 10 and 8 on September 24-26, 5 on September 27-29, then 30, 38, 20, 15, 18, 10, 12 and 8 on September 30 through October 7, and 5 on October 8-9.

At 0209 UTC on September 2 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:  "Disturbed conditions caused by a high speed wind stream in a geoeffective direction are expected September 3-5."

Frantislav K. Janda, OK1HH shares his weekly commentary:

"The recent rise in solar activity, especially during August 27-30, was triggered by two sunspot groups, AR3088, which on 29 August fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, and AR3089, which on 30 August passed through the central meridian, so entered the region of the so-called present active longitudes.

"Both sunspot groups are in the southern hemisphere of the Sun, while in both were daily registered flares of moderate magnitude. CMEs have been registered in four cases. Given the proximity of the coronal hole, we would expect a significant increase in geomagnetic activity, but only at first approach.

"However, there was only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity, confirming the current solar wind path models. We expect it to intensify and then increase in geomagnetic activity since about September 4 onwards. A further gradual increase in total solar activity can be expected a few days later."

I (K7RA) noticed some curious 12 meter propagation, testing the band using FT8 on https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[2]. This way I can see instantly where my signal is heard, and get accurate, objective signal reports.

On August 31 at 2038-2116 UTC my calls were heard nowhere in North America outside my local area, which were stations 4-54 miles away. But all stations hearing me were in a straight line running through Mexico and Central America, then down to Brazil.

XE1GLL, XE1EE, and XE1AQY, down to V31MA, LU6FL and PU3MSR. No 12 meter resonant antenna, just a 32 foot end-fed indoor wire fed with a 4:1 UnUn transformer and automatic antenna tuner.

Other curious 12 meter behavior was on Saturday, August 27 at 2252 UTC when the only stations hearing me (FT8 again) were ZL2OK at 7,120 miles with a strong signal report of +4 dB and WH6FXV at 2,649 miles.

Ten minutes later at 2302 UTC JA1QGI was the only station reporting, from 4,746 miles away. Four minutes later JN4MIV reported. At 2312 UTC ZL2OK was back, this time reporting -4 dB, 8 dB lower than the earlier report.

At 2315 UTC I worked JH6RKI and copied several more Japanese stations.

Newsweek Magazine has been reporting interesting solar news recently:

https://bit.ly/3q5XACl[3]

And Forbes.

https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G[4]

Is "The Independent" one of the UK Fleet Street tabloids? Perhaps a RSGB member could inform us.

https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF[5]

Another wonderful report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, ham radio's own Space Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY[6]

In the following links, many are presented for your amusement only. I do not believe that a huge solar flare will ever engulf the Earth.

A canyon of fire: https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy[7]

EarthSky reports (page down): https://bit.ly/3wRStK1[8]

A report four weeks old, but still relevant: https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4[9]

Growing sunspot a threat: https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt[10]

Our angry Sun: https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm[11]

This one is a bit over the top: https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd[12]

From a few days ago: https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3[13]

Radio blackouts: https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa[14]

Flares and blackouts: https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa[15]

More Flares: https://bit.ly/3e5ninN[16]

Existential threat: https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE[17]

Flare facing Earth: https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv[18]

Sunspot somehow destroys Earth: https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy[19]

The 61st annual All Asian DX Phone contest is this weekend.

Information can be found here: https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa[20]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[21].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[22] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[23] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[24] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[25] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[26] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[27] .

Sunspot numbers for August 25 through 31, 2022 were 94, 88, 84, 79, 87, 50, and 42, with a mean of 74.9. 10.7 cm flux was 117.8, 118.6, 127.5, 133.5, 130.6, 125.6, and 113.3, with a mean of 123.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 14, 7, 14, 13, and 13, with a mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 5, 11, 7, 13, 13, and 12, with a mean of 9.4.


[1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
[2] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[3] https://bit.ly/3q5XACl
[4] https://bit.ly/3AOWD6G
[5] https://bit.ly/3e5kJlF
[6] https://youtu.be/hh_EPRjMmzY
[7] https://bit.ly/3RcWSiy
[8] https://bit.ly/3wRStK1
[9] https://bit.ly/3KH0yH4
[10] https://bit.ly/3cEgFZt
[11] https://bit.ly/3cHMiBm
[12] https://bit.ly/3TzEnqd
[13] https://bit.ly/3CSJFY3
[14] https://bit.ly/3Rwwpwa
[15] https://bit.ly/3KH2jEa
[16] https://bit.ly/3e5ninN
[17] https://bit.ly/3Qc3MDE
[18] https://bit.ly/3q5gzgv
[19] https://bit.ly/3cHGSGy
[20] https://bit.ly/3ALPkwa
[21] k7ra@arrl.net
[22] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[23] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[24] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[25] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[26] http://k9la.us/
[27] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/09/2022

 This week (September 1 to 7) two new sunspot groups emerged on September 1, two more on September 2, one more on September 5, another on September 6 another on September 7 and one more on September 8 when the sunspot number rose to 75, 7 points above the average for the previous seven days.

But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 74.9 to 68, while average daily solar flux rose just two points from 123.8 to 125.8.

On Thursday night the sun is peppered with spots, but none are magnetically complex and solar flux seems listless at 126.6, barely above the average for the previous seven days.

Geomagnetic indicators were way up, average daily planetary A index rose from 10.1 to 24.6, while middle-latitude numbers increased from 9.4 to 17.4.

September 4 was the most active day when planetary A index was 64. On that day the college A index in Fairbanks, Alaska was 91.

Predicted solar flux is 125 on September 9 to 13, 120 on September 14, 115 on September 15 and 16, then 125, 126 and 120 on September 17 to 19, 125 on September 20 and 21, 115 on September 22 to 24, 120 on September 25 to 28, 118 on September 29 and 30, 115 and 125 on October 1 and 2, 120 on October 3 and 4, 122 on October 5, 120 on October 6 and 7, 125 on October 8 to 11, 126 on October 12, 125 on October 13 and 14, and 126 on October 15.

Predicted planetary A index is 50 on October 1.  Otherwise,  8 on September 9 to 11, 5 on September 12, 20 on September 13 and 14, 15 on September 15, 8 on September 16 and 17, 5 on September 18 to 22, then 12 and 10 on September 23 and 24, 14 on September 25 to 27, 8 on September 28 and 29, then 22, 50, 25, 16, 12 and 10 on September 30 through October 5, 8 on October 6 to 8, then 5, 12, 15 and 10 on October 9 to 12, 8 on October 13 and 14, and 5 on October 15 to 19.

OK1HH writes:

"Over the past seven days, a large coronal hole moved from the central meridian to the western limb of the solar disk.  Its position relatively close to sunspot group AR3089 meant a high probability of a geomagnetic disturbance in the following days, since September 4.  Its onset as early as 3 September (class G1) was related to the intensification of the solar wind and the opening of a rift in the Earth's magnetic field.  The solar wind flow from the large coronal hole finally hit Earth's magnetic field on September 4 and triggered a G2 class geomagnetic storm.

At the same time, two sunspot groups so large that they affected the Sun's vibrations developed on the far side of the Sun.  These were AR3088, which had last left the Sun a week earlier and was the source of a large CME heading for Venus on September 5.

On September 7, AR3092 crossed the central meridian and had a really long tail above the surface of the Sun.  It was a filament coming out of the core of the spot and curling up into the solar atmosphere.  Inside the filament was a long tube of relatively cool, dark plasma.

Thereafter the Sun was relatively quiet.  The solar disk was dotted by sunspots, but these have a stable magnetic field, so the chance of flares was low.

Earth's magnetic field was mostly disturbed on the 3rd to the 6th. Thereafter was unsettled to active on the remaining days.  Shortwave propagation was below average, worst at the end of the disturbance on September 6.  An increase in f0F2 occurred at the beginning of the disturbance on September 4.

Now a few quiet days followed by another disturbance on 13 and 14 September is expected."

I (K7RA) have been seeing more strange 12 meter propagation recently.  Over and over for several days using FT8 as a propagation test tool with pskreporter.info, I would call CQ and see that only stations in Florida were receiving my signal.  It looks very odd on the map.  Florida does have a very large ham population, but this just seems so peculiar.

Regarding the recent overloading of the sensors at Penticton, I noted I had seen this before, but didn't realize how rare it was.  I paged back through the DRAO archives, and unless I missed something, the last one was in 2015 on June 22 when the 2000 UTC flux reading was 246.9.  The noon solar flux the following day was only 116.1.

Tamitha Skov's report is a week old, but too late for last week's bulletin:  https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg[1]

Two massive sunspots:  https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI[2]

Longtime contributor David Moore sent this:  https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL[3]

Big explosion:  https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC[4]

Our angry sun:  https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg[5]

So huge:  https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9].  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11].  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13].

Sunspot numbers for September 1 through 7, 2022 were 67, 71, 68, 62, 79, 56, and 73, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 116.3, 129.8, 123.4, 128.3, 130.2, 126.2, and 126.1, with a mean of 125.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 25, 64, 32, 20, and 14, with a mean of 24.6.  Middle latitude A index was 9, 10, 23, 33, 21, 14, and 12, with a mean of 17.4.


[1] https://youtu.be/zggTNrpa8Pg
[2] https://bit.ly/3RKKrKI
[3] https://bit.ly/3qIDfDL
[4] https://bit.ly/3Ddd2EC
[5] https://bit.ly/3B5ZKHg
[6] https://bit.ly/3qlHQLT
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/16/2022

Solar activity bounced back this reporting week, September 8-14, when average daily sunspot numbers jumped from 68 to 92.7, and average solar flux from 125.8 to 141.3.

Fewer CMEs and flares were evident, with average planetary A index declining from 24.6 to 10.7, and middle latitude numbers from 17.4 to 10.6.

New sunspot groups appeared, one on September 8, three on September 10, and one more on September 13. Total sunspot area (in millionths of a solar disc) on September 12-14 rose from 370 to 870 to 1240, the highest value in over a month.

The sunspot number was highest on September 10 at 122.

During this week two years ago, there were no sunspots at all, and average daily solar flux was only 69.7, over 56 points lower than this week, demonstrating the continued progress of Solar Cycle 25.

The latest (Thursday) forecast from space weather folks at Offut AirForce Base shows predicted solar flux peaking at 150 on October 9,but with flux over the next few days following this bulletin less optimistic than the numbers in the bulletin preview in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

Predicted flux values on September 16-17 are 140 and 135, then 125 on September 18-19, 120 on September 20-29, 125 on September 30 through October 6, 130 on October 7-8, then 150, 148, 143 and 140 on October 9-12, then 136, 130, 125 and 120 on October 13-16, 125 on October 17-18, and 120 on October 19-26.

Predicted planetary A index shows moderate levels of geomagnetic activity until October 1-2. The forecast is 15, 18 and 10 on September 16-18, 5 on September 19-23, then 10 on September 24, 14 on September 25-27, 8 on September 28-29, then 22, 50, 30, 20 and 12 on September 30 through October 4, then 15, 12, 10, 8 and 5 on October 5-9, then 10, 8, 5, 15, 20 and 12 on October 10-15, then 5 on October 16-19, then 12 and 10 on October 20-21, and 14 on October 22-24.

The Autumnal Equinox is only a week away!

Nice solar video from last month:

https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm[1]

Here is NOAA's latest forecast discussion:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion[2]

Comments from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Although the Sun was speckled a week ago, all areas were quiet and overall, the Sun's activity was low. After that, activity began to grow rapidly in the northern hemisphere.

"Sunspot group AR3098 grew larger and on September 11, a C6 class flare was registered. The old area AR3088, which was active during the last rotation of the Sun, returned in the southeast solar limb.

"Two solar wind shock waves hit our planet on September 14 at 0630 UTC and 2313 UTC. The second of them significantly expanded the speed of the solar wind, started a disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field and caused very uneven shortwave propagation conditions, especially on routes leading through higher latitudes. Auroral distortion of signals were observed when passing through inhomogeneities in the auroral belt.

"Further similar disturbances can be expected on September 17th, a calm after September 18th and a decrease in solar activity is expected after September 20th."

The following is edited from an email from David Greer, N4KZ in Frankfort, Kentucky:

"With the Sun perking up from its long sleep, one of my favorite bands, 12 meters, is also coming alive. I've worked FT8 DX on 12 meters from time to time for months, but things really came alive for me from 1236-1356 UTC on September 14 when I worked 22 DX stations back-to-back on SSB.

"I called CQ and was answered by a Dutch station and after that, stations just kept calling and calling. I put 22 DX stations in my log. Most were from Europe, but I also worked the Middle East and Northwest Africa, 18 different DX entities all together.

"Some signals were quite strong, mostly because they ran high power with beam antennas but one station was thrilled to make the trip across the pond from Europe because, he said, 'he was running 100 watts to an indoor dipole in his apartment.'

"Some commented it was their first ever 12-meter QSO. I hear that often from stations everywhere. Some say they didn't think anyone ever used 12 meters. Since 2000, I have 12 meter WAS and confirmed 182 DX entities on 12 alone.

"I often call CQ on SSB when the band seems dead, only to have a rare DX station respond, such as VP8LP in the Falkland Islands.

"I was on 12-meter SSB the first night hams in the USA were authorized to use the band in 1985. That night, the band was wild because of a big sporadic-E opening and strong signals were coming from all directions across North America. It was a blast!

"I am fortunate to have a decent station -- 8-element log periodic antenna up 50 feet from a hilltop QTH with a kilowatt amp. But many signals were so strong on September 14 that I am sure others with modest stations could work many DX stations. I had to QRT at 1356 UTC even though others were still calling. I got back on the band later in the day and worked MW0ZZK in Wales. He was 20 over S9.

"Don't forget about 12 meters. When 10 meters is open, 12 is open too. And don't forget about the phone band allocation, which starts at 24.930 MHz in the USA. I've heard some out of band because they didn't know where the band edge was.

"A great propagation tool is the MUF web page operated by KC2G at https://prop.kc2g.com/ [3]. I monitor it constantly. It tells me what bands to check out and where I should aim my antenna. Plus, it has other interesting data in the menu."

Thanks to Dave for mentioning that great web site. I notice it has a section labeled eSSN, which is Effective Sunspot Number, derived from 10.7 cm solar flux. More about eSSN from NorthWest Research Associates, based here in the Seattle area:

https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html[4]

Also, I would like to add that often 12 meters is open when 10 meters seems dead.

Here is more crazy solar news:

https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd[5]

Here is Newsweek again:

https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS[6]

Some solar wind news:

https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i[7]

Lucky us! A brand new video, dated today, from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for September 8 through 14, 2022 were 75, 72, 122, 113, 117, 93, and 57, with a mean of 92.7. 10.7 cm flux was 126.6, 126.2, 135.9, 151.5, 150.4, 154.1, and 144.3, with a mean of 141.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 19, 13, 12, 9, 9, 4, and 9, with a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 17, 14, 10, 9, 9, 5, and 10, with a mean of 10.6.


[1] https://bit.ly/3BH9ZDm
[2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
[3] https://prop.kc2g.com/
[4] https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.html
[5] https://bit.ly/3QIrXKd
[6] https://bit.ly/3UhnuAS
[7] https://bit.ly/3BLjh1i
[8] https://youtu.be/OAOmI-3YxUA
[9] k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/23/2022

Geomagnetic disturbances were down this week, but so were sunspot
numbers and solar flux.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 92.7 to 68, and average
daily solar flux from 141.3 to 134.3.

On September 22 the sunspot number was 99, well above (by 31 points)
the average for the previous seven days, a promising indication. We
hope it may signal a trend.

But Solar Cycle 25 progresses, a bit better than expected. A year
ago, average daily sunspot numbers were about ten points lower, at
58.3, while average solar flux was 87.4, about 47 points lower. Two
years ago there were no sunspots! We still expect an uptrend lasting
until Summer 2025.

Six new sunspot groups appeared this week, the first on September
15, two more on September 19, another on September 20, and two more
on September 21.

Predicted solar flux is 138 on September 23, 130 on September 24-27,
120 and 125 on September 28-29, 122 on September 30 through October
7, then 125, 122 and 120 on October 8-10, 118 on October 11-12, 116
on October 13-15, 138 on October 16, 135 on October 17-18, then 133,
128, 126, 130 and 125 on October 19-23, 120 on October 24-25, and
122 on October 26-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 20 on September 23, 15 on September
24-25, 8 on September 26-28, then 5, 22, 50, 30 and 20 on September
29 through October 3, then 12, 15, 12 and 10 on October 4-7, then 8,
8, 5, and 8 on October 8-11, 5 on October 12-14, then 12, 10, 5, 5,
20, 18 and 12 on October 15-21, and 8 on October 22-26, then 22, 50,
30, 20 and 12, a repeat from the previous solar rotation.

The above predictions were by Dethlesfsen and Ciopasiu at Offut Air
Force Base.

Are sunspots really black?  A report can be found here:

https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black[1]

Pleased to report that the 2022 Autumnal Equinox is today, Friday,
September 23 at 0104 UTC. Both northern and southern hemispheres
will be bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation, which is good
for HF propagation.

Frequent contributor David Moore sent this story about a magnetic
mystery solved with the aid of the Solar Orbiter:

https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX[2]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 22, 2022 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The setting sunspot region AR3098 still managed to produce an
impulsive M8-class solar flare on 16 September at 0949 UT. A sudden
ionospheric disturbance (SWF, or Dellinger effect) affected
frequencies below 25 MHz for an hour after the flare.

"On September 17, we expected the high-speed solar wind flow from
the northern coronal hole to produce a G1-class geomagnetic storm,
but we registered it a day later. Whereupon the old region AR3088
appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk and was given the new
number AR3102. Although it appeared to be in decay, it grew again.

"On September 18, we observed five M-class solar flares in the
setting region of AR3098. However, none of them produced an
earthward CME.

"On September 20, another large group of spots appeared over the
southeastern edge of the Sun, joining the rising and growing AR3105
- which doubled in size the next day.

"On September 21, NOAA predicted a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm
might occur on September 23. A high-speed solar wind stream is
expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field.

"On September 22, we could observe the sunspot group complex
AR3105-3107. The chance of a geoeffective flare should increase in
the coming days as they enter the Earth's impact zone.

"Geomagnetic activity was somewhat lower than expected.

"Shortwave propagation conditions pleasantly surprised us around
September 17. Therefore, we expected them to improve further as the
Autumnal Equinox approached. But it didn't happen.  They remained at
average levels, whereby the explanation for why this happened lies
in the effect of the solar wind on the Earth's ionosphere."

I (K7RA) had more strange pipeline propagation on 10 meters this
week, in which my FT8 signal was only reported by
https://pskreporter.info[3] from stations in Florida.

At 2050 UTC yesterday, AI4FR (2509 miles), N2UJZ (2558 miles),
KD8HTS (2582 miles), and WC3W (2609 miles) were the only stations
anywhere receiving my signal. All were less than 100 miles from each
other.  Later PU5CAC (Brazil, 6847 miles) was added to the mix,
along the same arc as the North America stations.

I was not using any directional antenna, just a random length
end-fed indoor wire fed by a 4:1 UnUn and autotuner. Very curious
results, and it happens often. So, for me, the band was dead, except
to a very specific location.

Here is a space weather report from England's Met Office:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather[4]

On September 22, https://spaceweather.com[5] reported three big
sunspots crossing the solar horizon: AR3105, AR3106 and AR3107.

Here is always a good reference:

https://solarmonitor.org/[6]

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/[7]

Solar Dynamics Observatory:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/[8]

The SOHO site:

https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/[9]

Hilarious solar warning out of India, an EOTWAWKI existential
threat:

https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation [15]. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for September 15 through 21, 2022 were 71, 64, 76,
51, 74, 70, and 70, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 139.7,
131.1, 131.5, 136.1, 127.9, 137.2, and 136.9, with a mean of 134.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 5, 11, 11, 8, and 5, with a
mean of 7.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 5, 5, 9, 7, 6, and 4,
with a mean of 6.9.

 


[1] https://www.livescience.com/why-are-sunspots-black
[2] https://bit.ly/3DRzhjX
[3] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[4] https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/space-weather
[5] https://spaceweather.com
[6] https://solarmonitor.org/
[7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
[8] https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
[9] https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/
[10] https://bit.ly/3S67DDZ
[11] k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/30/2022

Sunspot activity rose this reporting week, September 22-28, with
average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 68 to 105.1. But solar
flux? Not so much. Average daily solar flux rose from 134.3 to
138.4.

So, the sunspot average rose 55% and solar flux only 3%. I usually
expect the numbers to track more closely.

New sunspots appeared on September 22 and 23, and one more on
September 27. On Thursday night (September 29) NOAA reported the
daily sunspot number at 56, little more than half the average for
the previous seven days, which is 105.1.

Tuesday September 27 had lots of geomagnetic activity, with the
planetary A index at 24 and middle latitude at 33. Spaceweather.com[1]
blamed an unexpected CME. They also report a huge sunspot beyond the
Sun's eastern horizon with a helioseismic image at,
https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN[2] .

The Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic
warning at 2146 UTC on September 28:

"Geomagnetic 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that G1 geomagnetic
activity is likely during the interval 30-Sep to 02-Oct.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
SPEED WIND STREAM."

Predicted solar flux from the Thursday night forecast appears much
more optimistic than the Wednesday numbers, which were in the ARRL
Letter on Thursday.

Instead of 135 and 130 for the next few days, they are 148 on
September 30, 146 on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-7, then 135, 130,
128 and 132 on October 8-11, then 136 on October 12-13, then 138,
140, 138 and 135 on October 14-17, then 132, 130, 128 and 125 on
October 18-21, then 130, 140, 142 and 145 on October 22-25, and 140,
135, 130, 125, 128 and 130 on October 26-31, then 132 on November
1-3, and 135, 130 and 128 on November 4-6.

Planetary A index is predicted at 20, 60 and 40 on September 30
through October 2, then 20, 18, 16 on October 3-5, 12 on October
6-7, then 8 on October 8-14, 10 on October 15-16, 8 on October
17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 8 on October 22-23, 10 on October 24-25,
8 on October 26-27, then in a recurrent disturbance as sunspots
rotate into the same position as weeks earlier, 25, 50, 30, 20, 12
and 10 on October 28 through November 2, and back to 8 on November
3-10.

Of course, a planetary A index of 50 or 60 is huge, indicating an
expected major geomagnetic disturbance.

From OK1HH:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 29, 2022.

"Free continuation of predictions of the Earth's magnetic field
activity, published in the years 1978 - 2021.

"The following text is very brief as I am traveling around Europe
without a computer. I will add more next time.

"An unexpected and unpredicted surprise was the rise of geomagnetic
activity during the night of September 24-25.

"Further developments did not take place according to assumptions.
Which, by the way, is a precursor to the next increase in solar
activity.

"Nevertheless, I present a forecast of further disturbances:
September 30 and especially October 1!

"http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/[3] - F.K. Janda, OK1HH"

Wow, Frantislav manages to submit his report without a computer!
I've never been to Europe (unfortunately), but I imagine him ducking
into some sort of Internet kiosk to file his report.

Here is Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, report
from last weekend:

https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ[4]

An article on solar research:

https://bit.ly/3dPm40p[5]

Newsweek is at it again:

https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e[6]

I continue to see unusual propagation using FT8, such as my signal
only being received in a narrow band 100-200 miles wide on the East
Coast of North America.

You do not need to be an FT8 user to use it to check out the bands.
Just go to the pskreporter map page at
https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[7] and select the band you are
interested in (they even have 11 meters!).

Next, select the default "Signals" and "Sent/Received by" and change
"the callsign" to "grid square," entering your own four-character
grid (or one near you with a larger ham population) and in the
"Using" field select FT8.

Hit "Go!" and you will see where stations in your area are being
received, including signal levels.

You can enter your own call instead of the grid, and select "Country
of Callsign," and you will see activity all over your nation. I find
it interesting early in the day to use this on 10 meters, and what I
usually see is activity all over the East Coast, and especially in
the southeast U.S. but not here on the west coast.

But I know that the 10 meter openings will advance across the
country with the movement of Earth relative to our Sun.

Explore the "Display options" link just to the right of the time
listed in the "over the last" field, and you can customize this
tool. I like to select "Show time text in black always," "Show
connecting lines always," and "Show SNR."

The "Show logbook" link is very useful, once you have done a search.
Often, I will use this, searching for the callsign of an FT8 station
who has mysteriously disappeared after connecting to me. I can sort
the entries by Time to find out if anyone has received that station
since I last saw that station's signal.

The default "over the last" setting is 15 minutes, but when
searching for a callsign you can vary the time over the past 24
hours.

Have fun!

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for September 22 through 28, 2022 were 99, 111, 128,
96, 120, 110, and 72, with a mean of 105.1. 10.7 cm flux was 136.7,
146.3, 146.5, 134.7, 135.1, 134.5, and 134.8, with a mean of 138.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 13, 7, 6, 24, and 5, with
a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 12, 10, 5, 5, 33, and
3, with a mean of 10.4.

 


[1] https://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3ftpTIN
[3] http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
[4] https://youtu.be/A8flrmnAqQQ
[5] https://bit.ly/3dPm40p
[6] https://bit.ly/3CmpW2e
[7] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] https://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/07/2022

Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week (September 29 through October 5), as expected with the solar cycle progressing toward a probable peak in summer 2025.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and average daily 10.7 cm solar flux from 138.4 to 149.2.

Compare this to a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.

This last week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30, one more on October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday, October 6.

I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago and with higher sunspot numbers.

Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9, then 152 and 150 on October 10 and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130 on October 15, 135 on October 16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on October 19 to 21, 150 on October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on October 24 to 26, 145 on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155 on October 30 and 31, 145 on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130 on November 5 and 6, 135 on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130 on November 10 and 11 and 135 on November 12 and 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10, 5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October 14, 10 on October 15 and 16, then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22 to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on October 30 through November 1, then 8 on November 2 to 10 and 10 on November 11 and 12.

On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced "A Big Dangerous Sunspot", AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just rotated over the sun's eastern horizon.  They predict this could produce two weeks of high solar activity.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports, "A week ago it seemed that following conditions would be calmer.  This assumption was shattered after AR3112 sunspot group, with its complex magnetic structure, began to appear on the northeastern edge of the solar disk.

Prior to that, we expected the earth to be hit by a fast solar wind from a CME that left the sun on September 28, but only a slight increase in geomagnetic activity followed on September 28 and October 2.

However, we did get an X1 flare on October 2 at 2025 UTC, which ironically did not originate from the large dangerous AR3112 group, but from the smaller and apparently less threatening AR3110 active region.  It amplified the SWF (shortwave fade out) in the Pacific and parts of North America.  Apparently, it blasted a CME into space.

This development was followed by the introduction of AR3112 with over a dozen dark nuclei scattered over 130,000 km of the solar disk.

It remained the case that most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into space by the AR3110 group of spots, in which we observed a series of strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend.

As a result, several CMEs headed towards Earth.

However, the geomagnetic field was only steady to active in the following days.

Not only does the chance for energetic flares in the AR3112 region persist, but on October 4, a 200,000 km long magnetic filament erupted in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.  The plasma clouds are not heading directly towards Earth, but some could hit on 8 October."

Big filament.

https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC[1]

https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ[2]

The latest from WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov.

https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME[3]

https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
 http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5, 2022 were 56, 74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4.  10.7 cm flux was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a mean of 149.2.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24, 16, and 14, with a mean of 12.7.  Middle latitude A index was 7, 12, 2, 9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.


[1] https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC
[2] https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ
[3] https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME
[4] https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/14/2022

Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week,
with sunspot numbers going from 111.4 to 114.9, and flux values from
149.2 to 155.3.

A feel-good exercise is to compare these numbers with a year ago,
when the sunspot reading in 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin
ARLP041 was only 30.7 and flux was 86.9. Solar Cycle 25 progression
is better than predicted.

October 9 saw a planetary A index reading of 25. On that day Spaceweather.com[1] warned that sunspot AR3112 had a delta-class
magnetic field with energy for strong solar flares.

The next day they posted movies of two flares, seen here, https://bit.ly/3T82fQS[2] and here, https://bit.ly/3evItjp[3] .

Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA shows values peaking during
the first week in November at 160.

The forecast shows flux values of 130, 120, 115 and 117 on October
14-17, 120 on October 18-20, 130 and 138 on October 21-22, 140 on
October 23-25, then 145, 145 and 150 on October 26-28, then 155, 155
and 152 on October 29-31, 160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135
on November 9-11, 130 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on
November 15-17, and 140 on November 18-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-16,
5 on October 17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-26, then
12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on October 31 through
November 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on November 2-4, 20 on November 5-6,
then 8 and 12 on November 7-8, then 5, 5, 12 and 10 on November
9-12, then 5 on November 13-15, 12 on November 16-17, and 5 on
November 18-22.

With increased solar activity and the progression into the Fall
season, I am seeing improved conditions on 10 meters, including more
beacon reports for my K7RA/B CW beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"A greater number of active regions on the Sun, and therefore higher
total solar activity may be interesting for observers who are on the
lookout for remarkable phenomena. Moreover, it will certainly please
those radio amateurs who like to communicate on the shortest
shortwave bands, but that's where the easy part of the prediction
ends.

"Along with more flares, we also saw more CMEs. More accurately: too
many CMEs to make a forecast. The Sun was throwing several plasma
clouds into space nearly every day. Many of the CMEs were weak, some overlapping and heading in different directions. The disturbances
could occur at any time. Their irregular occurrence was observed
between October 3 and 10. Only after that did the Earth's
magnetosphere calm down.

"The CME of 4 October apparently did not hit the Earth. It was not
until the eruption in AR3112 on October 7 that it did. Therefore, we
observed a G1-class geomagnetic storm on October 9. In addition, we
observed eruptive activity that may have affected the Earth from the
smaller AR3116.

"All of this took place in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk,
and as the active regions approached the western limb of the solar
disk, the overall activity slowly decreased.

"Some CMEs took us by surprise and caused unexpected disturbances,
while other CMEs that should have hit Earth did not. We were pleased
to note a quiet development since October 11 with solar activity
still sufficiently high, contributed to improved shortwave
propagation.

"We now expect a gradual decrease in solar activity, but this will
be replaced by an increase later in October."

John, W2QL wrote:

"I decoded HC2FG on 6m FT8, 50.315.143 on 8 October 2022 at 1526
UTC, -18 dB.

"My equipment was a MFJ 6m Moxon in 3rd floor bedroom, SDRPlay
RSPDuo, QTH Fairfax, VA, FM18iu."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Some odd F2 conditions October 8. First, 6 meters was open from the
southeast U.S. to Ecuador in the morning around 1500 UTC. I was on
6M portable with a 5 el Yagi, but nil in Kansas. To me it appeared
to be F2.

"10 meters was wide open to Europe. 9H1TT was 59+++ on SSB, as were
3 stations in Lebanon on 28.647 MHz. No luck with the OD5 stations,
but I worked EA7GAK, 9H1TT on SSB, and HA7TM on FT8 with 50 watts
and a whip antenna 'fixed mobile' from my portable site in northeast
Kansas.

"Solar Cycle 25 appears to be ramping up!

"Also worked IS0/OM2TW on SSB with 50 watts and vertical whip on
car."

Another of the many articles about the scary Carrington Event,
although this is the first time I have seen the claim that the flare
was so powerful, that telegraph messages could be sent through the
aurora! 1859 was long before the invention of radio, and longer
still before radio waves were observed propagating through the
aurora:

https://bit.ly/3CQEveO[4]

Does anyone know how to get rid of that annoying video pop-up? I
cannot kill it.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12, 2022 were 139, 146, 137,
114, 134, 72, and 62, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
159.7, 157.2, 160.5, 163.2, 150.3, and 140.6, with a mean of 155.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 15, 12, 25, 10, 7, and 6,
with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 12, 10, 18, 8,
7, and 4, with a mean of 10.4.


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3T82fQS
[3] https://bit.ly/3evItjp
[4] https://bit.ly/3CQEveO
[5] k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/21/2022

Sunspot activity took quite a plunge over this reporting week
(October 13-19). Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 114.9
to 57.3, while equivalent solar flux values went from 155.3 to
119.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average planetary A
index going from 13.3 to 10.6, and middle latitude A index from 10.4
to 8.1.

A new sunspot group emerged on October 13, two more on October 15,
another on October 16, one more on October 17, another on October 19
and one more on October 20.

I should note that the middle latitude A index for October 18-19 are
my own estimates. The Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetometer was
offline for a 24 hour period spanning both days.

The Wednesday forecast of solar flux shows a peak at 160 during the
first week in November.

Predicted daily flux values are 115 on October 21-22, 120 on October
23-27, 130 on October 28, 155 on October 29-30, 152 on October 31,
160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135 on November 9-11, 130 on
November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on November 15-17, and 140
on November 18-21, 145 on November 22-23, 150 on November 24, 155 on
November 25-26, then 160 from the end of November through the first
week in December.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21-23, 12 on October 24,
15 on October 25-26, then 12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on
October 31 through November 1, then 18, 15, 12, 20, and 8 on
November 2-6, 5 on November 7-9, 18 on November 10-11, then 15 and 8
on November 12-13, 5 on November 14-15, 12 on November 16-17, 8 on
November 18, and 5 on November 19-21, then 15, 12, 15, 12 and 20 on
November 22-26, 15 on November 27-28, and 18 on November 29.

Despite lower solar activity, worldwide 10 meter propagation seems
strong this week, probably boosted by seasonal variations as we head
deeper into the Fall season.

Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28, Kansas) reports from last week:

"A strong several hour F2 opening took place on 6 Meters October 14,
2022. Stations in northern South America and the Caribbean were
strong to the southeast states, Midwest, and eastern Seaboard.

"From eastern Kansas, I logged HC2DR and PJ4MM on 6 Meters via FT8
around 1950 UTC. I was running about 50 watts and a quarter wave
whip on my car 'fixed mobile.'"

"Signals were strong.

"The Solar Flux was 141, K index 4."

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity gradually decreased as active regions fell behind
the northwestern limb of the solar disk.

"Earth's magnetic field was active to disturbed around October 15,
when our planet was moving in a rapid stream of solar wind. A minor
G1-class geomagnetic storm was registered on October 15.

"In the following days, solar activity remained low, and the simple
sunspot configuration indicated a low probability of flares.

"It is only in a few days, after the coronal hole in the southeast
of the solar disk crosses the central meridian, that the solar wind
speed and the probability of geomagnetic disturbances will increase
again.

"We can expect a more pronounced increase in solar activity and more
frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands again, especially
from the last days of October onward."

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4[1]

Angel Santana, WP3GW on October 17 wrote:

"For a month now I've heard (and seen) much activity on 10 meters
more than on any other band on weekends with countries that I've not
heard for a while. On past weeks, have worked 7X, C3, and V51MA
which is very active.

"You can even hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz.

"This past Sunday took time to work some stations from I, EA, T7,
and ON. Then after 1730 UTC began calling on 28.550 MHz and work 22
stations including PA, I, F, CX, W, CE, PY, EA8, and LU. All good
signals. Plus, heard DL for the Work All Germany contest.

"Some EA stations are heard well into the 2100 UTC which is like
11pm their local time.

"So, give it a try, this contest season looks very interesting, you
may call this the 'Rise of Ten.'"

Angel added that with his Yaesu FTDX10 he can see the activity
across 10 meters.

Bob, KB1DK writes:

"I have been using the MUF map from the KC2G website since it was
mentioned by N4KZ in your September 16th bulletin. It is very
accurate and is now my go-to source to know what is actually
happening propagation wise before I turn on the rig.

"The auto refresh MUF map reflects the actual and changing band
conditions. The map has been consistently 'spot on' during my first
month of use. I highly recommend the website.

"Over the past three weeks, both 10 and 12 meter SSB have been great
from my Connecticut QTH. I worked many newcomers to 12 meters who
were impressed with both the propagation and the minimal QRM.

"The first two weeks in October was very busy on 10 meters. Weekends
were like a contest, with solid activity between 28.300 and 28.600
Signals were quite strong and many stations were heard here for
several hours straight. While I was able to make SSB contacts to
Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Australia, I was not able to make contact
with Japan. The signals from Japan were readable and they were
working stations from the west coast."

The site is, https://prop.kc2g.com[2] .

A new photo of a solar flare:

https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19, 2022 were 57, 51, 50, 59,
84, 50, and 50, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 120.5,
115.1, 119.2, 125.6, 113.9, and 113.2, with a mean of 155.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 18, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 5, with
a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 16, 15, 11, 4, 4, and
3, with a mean of 10.4.
 


[1] https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4
[2] https://prop.kc2g.com
[3] https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb
[4] k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/28/2022

Sunspot activity seems listless. Average daily sunspot numbers went
from 57.3 to 58.4 (see note at the end of the bulletin concerning
last week's averages) while solar flux went from 119.6 to 113.2.

On Thursday, the day after the reporting week ended, the sunspot
number was 72, over 13 points above the previous 7 day average.
Perhaps this is a promising sign.

The middle latitude geomagnetic numbers this week are wrong. See
what I mean:

https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB[1]

I emailed a contact at NOAA about this, and here is the reply:

"Mid lat numbers are absolutely NOT correct.

"Fredericksburg magnetometer is undergoing maintenance this week and
has been flaky. I've alerted the individual acting in my absence as
well as our developers to see if we can get that cleaned up."

So, the middle latitude numbers presented here at the end of the
bulletin are my own very rough estimates, trying to correlate with
the high latitude and planetary numbers. My NOAA contact emailed me
the data from the Boulder magnetometer, which can be used in lieu of
the Fredericksburg data, and he noted that my estimates were not far
off.

Here is what he sent me:

A index (Boulder)              7, 4, 22, 13, 6, 5, 4 with a mean of 8.7
A index (K7RA estimate)  5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, 4 with a mean of 9.1

Average daily planetary A index went from 18.6 to 10.4, and middle
latitude numbers from 8.1 to 9.1.

Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 28 to November 3, 112 on
November 4-5, 118 on November 6-9, 115 on November 10-12, 112 on
November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18, 104 on
November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25, 100 on
November 26, then 105 on November 27-28, 110 on November 29, 112 on
November 30 through December 2, and 118 on December 3-6.

The rise in solar flux in the first week in November to 160
presented in the previous two bulletins is gone from the current
prediction. But this Thursday solar flux forecast is more optimistic
for the near term than the Wednesday forecast in yesterday's ARRL
Letter.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 18, 22, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on
October 28 through November 3, 5 on November 4-9, then 18, 18 and 15
on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-17, then 25, 18, 17 and 12 on
November 18-21, 5 on November 22-23, then 8, 15 and 20 on November
24-26, then 15, 15 and 12 on November 27-29, and 5 on November 30
through December 6.

From F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Not much happened on the Sun over the past few days from the point
of view of a terrestrial observer. Overall activity was low. Of
note, the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic
field on October 22, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and
bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

"Earth's magnetic field calmed down and active sunspot regions began
to sink beyond the southwestern edge of the solar disk, while others
emerged in the northeast.

"Although helioseismic maps revealed interesting activity on the
Sun's far side, this will likely end before it emerges on the
eastern edge of the solar disk."

Scott, N7KQ in Fort Meyers, Florida wrote:

"I wish I had sent this earlier. I worked Japan twice lately on 10
meters from Southwest Florida. Once on October 12th (JM7OLW) and on
October 18th (JA1KIH) using an indoor dipole above the garage at 14
feet. Both were weak but 100% copy. They both reported the same for
my signal. These contacts were CW, and I run 500 watts."

10 meters has been much better lately, and for Scott, working
stations in Japan is more difficult than for me in Seattle, where we
have always had a pipeline to Japan. His path length is about 7,000
miles, while mine is only about 5000 miles, and I recall during past
sunspot cycle peaks calling CQ running barefoot into a low dipole
produced huge pileups of JA signals.

My own 10 meter CW beacon (K7RA/B, 28.2833 MHz) has been getting
more reports lately. A couple of listeners even mailed QSL cards.

Thanks to Darrel, AA7FV for a tip that led me to a news item about a
gamma ray burst.

Be sure to visit Spaceweather.com[2] and using the archives feature in
the upper right corner, go to October 18 to read about the October 9
gamma ray burst, and the amateur astronomer who detected it using an
unusual VLF antenna.

This burst of energy happened 2.4 billion years ago and took that
long to reach us.

Here is what stage Earth was in at that time:

https://bit.ly/3znjztv[3]

More info on the event:

https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi[4]

Here is a link to Darrel's own data, labeled Agua Caliente:

https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU[5]

Did you know there is crowd sourced geomagnetic data, using smart
phones? You can participate:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data[6]

Here is a Forbes article on doomsday flares:

https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy[7]

Some tabloid news on flares:

https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL[8]

Something even worse than a Carrington Event?

https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR[9]

In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 the averages
were wrong.

The correct averages for the numbers at the end of the bulletin in
ARLP042 were 57.3, 119.6, 10.6 and 8.1 for sunspot number, solar
flux, planetary A index and middle latitude A index respectively.
The wrong numbers were actually from the previous week.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10] .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26, 2022 were 33, 60, 55, 65,
46, 72, and 78, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 109.4,
105, 108.4, 114.8, 116.3, and 122.4, with a mean of 113.2. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 5, 27, 16, 8, 5, and 5, with a mean of
10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, and 4, with a
mean of 9.1.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB
[2] http://Spaceweather.com
[3] https://bit.ly/3znjztv
[4] https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi
[5] https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU
[6] https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data
[7] https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy
[8] https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL
[9] https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR
[10] k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/04/2022

Solar activity perked up this week. Average daily sunspot number
rose from 58.4 to 70.3, and solar flux averages increased from 113.3
to 129.9.

There are still problems with the Fredericksburg magnetometer, so I
used numbers from the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer for the middle
latitude A index.

At 2318 UTC on November 3, 2022 the Australian Space Weather
Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream from November 4-5."

Planetary A index averages went from 19.4 to 13.7, and middle
latitude numbers changed from 9.1 to 14.3.

The solar flux prediction shows the highest values over the next
week, starting with 130 on November 4, then 135 on November 5-6,
then 130, 135, 130, and 125 on November 7-10, 115 on November 11-12,
112 on November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18,
104 on November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25,
then 100, 105, 105 and 110 on November 26-29, then 112 on November
30 through December 2, then 118 on December 3-6, 115 on December
7-9, and 112 on December 10-11.

Predicted planetary A index is 22. 30, 15, and 8 on November 4-7, 5
on November 8-10, then 18 and 15 on November 11-12, 5 on November
13-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on November 18-20, 5 on November 21-22,
then 8, 15 and 25 on November 23-25, 15 on November 26-27, then 18,
12, 10, 12, 20 and 15 on November 28 through December 3, then 5 on
December 4-6, 18 on December 7-8, 15 on December 9, and 5 on
December 10-14, and 25 on December 15.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"The evolution of solar activity, the Earth's magnetic field and the
state of the ionosphere in recent days has been varied, but not easy
to describe in a concise way (which is my aim).

"The reason for this is the variability of the evolution and the
absence of energetically significant phenomena.

"A week ago, there were five quiet sunspot groups on the Sun. None
of them posed a threat of strong flares. All had stable magnetic
fields that did not look like they would result in an eruption.

"Then, on the far side of the Sun, a sunspot appeared so large that
it changed the way the Sun vibrated.

"Helioseismic maps revealed its acoustic echo several days beyond
the Sun's northeastern edge. What mattered to us was that it was
about to appear at the northeastern limb of the Sun's disk.

"On October 26, we were delighted to see the Solar Dynamics
Observatory (SOD) satellite, which is in geostationary orbit,
studying the Sun's influence on planet Earth and the surrounding
universe.

"Most important for the forecast is the SDO/AIA image of coronal
holes, which may alert us to the possibility of an ionospheric
disturbance. We were cheered up by the fact that the Sun looks like
a jolly smiley face or a Halloween pumpkin, seen on
https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ[1], just days before Halloween!

"A cheerful image, created by coronal holes in the Sun's atmosphere,
but mainly spewing a triple stream of solar wind toward Earth.

"Solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft indicated that a
small, unexpected CME may have impacted Earth's magnetic field on
October 28 around 1400 UTC. A G1-class geomagnetic storm followed
after midnight UTC on October 29 after Earth entered the solar wind
stream flowing from the merry hole in the solar atmosphere.

"(The DSCOVR spacecraft is the Deep Space Climate Observatory. See https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV[2] .)

"Further, there were only four sunspots on the Sun, all of which had
stable magnetic fields that were unlikely to explode.

"Another flare took place on November 1 on the far side of the Sun.
The eruption hurled a CME into space. The blast site will flip to
the Earth side of the Sun in about a week.

"Watch for a larger coronal hole that has since moved to the Sun's
western hemisphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms may result on
November 5, when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's
magnetic field. Which will definitely affect shortwave propagation
conditions. Ideally, and with appropriate timing (daytime, ideally
afternoon), a significant improvement in the positive phase of the
disturbance could follow."

Oleh, KD7WPJ of San Diego, California reported: "On November 1st I
worked 3 Japanese stations on 10 m CW at 2238-2248 UTC from
Dictionary Hill (SOTA W6/SC-366) in San Diego, CA. I used 40 watts
and a homemade vertical with 4 radials."

Solar blasts in the news:

https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v[3]

A Jack-o-Lantern Sun:

https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/[4]

News about radio blackouts!

https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W[5]

A smiley Sun:

https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd[6]

New videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I[7]

Part 3 of her mini-course:

https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk[8]

This weekend is the ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest, in which you work
domestic stations, and unlike ARRL Field Day, you do get multipliers
for sections worked. See https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes[9] for
details.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[11] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[12] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[13] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[14] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[15] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2, 2022 were 72, 87,
97, 68, 56, 63, and 49, with a mean of 70.3. 10.7 cm flux was 129.7,
129.3, 133.9, 130.5, 127.9, 128.1, and 129.7, with a mean of 129.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 16, 26, 12, 11, 8, and 14,
with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 24, 14, 12,
6, and 11, with a mean of 12.6.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ
[2] https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV
[3] https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v
[4] https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/
[5] https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W
[6] https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd
[7] https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I
[8] https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk
[9] https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes
[10] k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[12] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[13] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[14] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[15] http://k9la.us/
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/14/2022

ARRL headquarters was closed on Friday, November 11, so this
bulletin is delayed until Monday, but edited and updated Sunday
night.

Two new sunspots appeared November 1, one more November 3, two more November 4, one more and then another on November 6 and 7, another on November 9 and again on November 10, and one more on November 13. But sunspot numbers and solar flux seem modest lately, and so are the solar flux forecasts.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week, from 70.3 to 78.9, yet
somehow the solar flux averages stayed the same, 129.9 and 129.9.
Our reporting week is Thursday through Wednesday, and in the four
days since, the average rose to 137.9.

Average daily planetary A index went from 13.7 to 13.4, but the
middle latitude numbers changed from 14.3 to 9.6.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on November 14-15, 120 and 110 on
November 16-17, 105 on November 18-19,  then 110, 114, 112 and 114
on November 20-23, 116 on November 24-26, 118 on November 27-28,
then 120, 122, 125, 124 and 122 on November 29 through December 3,
130 on December 4-5, then 125 and 120 on December 6-7, 115 on
December 8-9, then 120, 118, 116, 115 and 114 on December 10-14, 116
on December 15-16, 114 on December 17-18, then 112 and 114 on
December 19-20, and 116 on December 21-23.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 14, 10 on November
15-16, 5 on November 17-19, 15 on November 20,  5 on November 21-22,
then 8, 16, 26, 15 and 12 on November 23-27, then 8, 15, 26, 16 and
12 on November 28 through December 2, then 8 on December 3-4, 12 on
December 5-8, 8 on December 9, then 5 on December 10-14, then 25, 15
and 8 on December 15-17, 5 on December 18-19, then 8, 26 and 15 on
December 20-22.

Angel Santana, WP3GW, wrote:

"10 meters is getting so better, that today on November 9 at 1319 UTC had a contact with 3B9FR on 28.522 MHz up 5. He even answered me in Spanish."

That is Rodrigues Island, in the Indian Ocean, more than 9000 miles
from Puerto Rico.

More on Rodrigues Island:

https://bbc.in/3El5MGS[1]

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ[2]

Articles about solar flares and radio blackouts:

https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu[3]

https://bit.ly/3hkvke8[4]

Paul, K2PMD, asked:

"I am a relatively new ham, so please forgive me if this is a dumb
question. Generally speaking, I understand that a high K index makes
radio communication more difficult. Why is the K index not included
in the weekly propagation report?"

My response:

"The reason is, there are too many of them.  Instead, geomagnetic
indicators are summarized using the A index.

"If we listed all the K indices for both middle-latitude and
planetary, there would be 112 numbers to report.

"K index is quasi-logarithmic, while A index is linear.

"The A index for any day is calculated from the 8 daily K indices.

"https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW[5]

"I've been using this resource more and more lately, when I want to
check for possible geomagnetic disturbances in real time:

"https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[6]

"Notice that the numbers are fractional, and it is easy to spot
trends in real time. K index is always expressed in whole numbers,
but because these are planetary numbers from many magnetometers, you
get a finer resolution."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9, 2022 were 65, 81, 82, 78,
80, 85, and 81, with a mean of 78.8. 10.7 cm flux was 125.3, 117.7,
131.1, 130.8, 134.6, 132.3, and 137.6, with a mean of 129.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 16, 10, 4, 19, 12, and 7,
with a mean of 13.4. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 8, 3, 12,
8, and 8, with a mean of 9.6.

 


[1] https://bbc.in/3El5MGS
[2] https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ
[3] https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu
[4] https://bit.ly/3hkvke8
[5] https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW
[6] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/18/2022

At 0334 UTC on November 18, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"A moderately large coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective
location by 19-Nov. Combined with possible weak glancing interaction
of recent CMEs, geomagnetic activity is expected in the coming days.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2022."

Sunspot numbers and solar flux did not seem to correlate this week.
Flux rose, while spots fell.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 79.8 to 72.3, but average
solar flux rose from 129.9 to 137.2.

This suggests the number and area of sunspots was less, but the 10.7
cm radiation from those spots increased.

A new sunspot emerged on November 10, another on November 13, and
two more on November 16, the last day of our reporting week, which
runs Thursday through the following Wednesday. Another sunspot group
emerged the next day on November 17.

How is this sunspot cycle progressing? One year ago, in our bulletin
average daily sunspot number was only 36.4, solar flux was 89.1, so
if the latest activity seems a bit lackluster, we can see the cycle
making steady progress. Solar Cycle 25 is expected to peak around
July 2025, about 32 months from now.

So why do we care about these numbers? We get better HF propagation
at higher frequencies when x-rays from the Sun are more intense, and
they correlate with sunspot numbers and the 10.7 cm radiation. This
radiation charges the ionosphere, increasing density.

Back in 1957-59 at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 the radiation was so
intense that (I've been told) 10 meters was open worldwide, around
the clock. Solar Cycle 19 had by far the highest sunspot count in
recorded history, with nothing like it before or since.

Here is the prediction for solar flux, from Thursday which has lower
short term numbers than the Wednesday forecast presented in the ARRL
Letter.

Expect 118 on November 18-21, 120, 122 and 122 November 22-24, 115
on November 25-26, then 120 and 125 on November 27-28, 130 on
November 29-30, 135 on December 1-12, 120 and 110 on December 13-14, then 105 on December 15-18, 110 on December 19, and 115 on December 20-23, then back to 135 before the New Year.

Predicted planetary A index, which gives us a clue to possible
geomagnetic unrest, is 10, 18, 28, 12 and 8 on November 18-22, 5 on
November 23-24, then 15, 18, 12 and 8 on November 25-28, 5 on
November 29-30, then 12, 18 and 8 on December 1-3, 5 on December
4-7, 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-11, 10 on December 12-13, 5
on December 14-16, 15 on December 17, then 18 on December 18-19, and 5, 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on December 20-25.

Coming up is the annual ARRL 10 Meter Contest, over the weekend of
December 10-11. Expect better propagation than we saw in 2020 and
2021. Although predicted solar flux is not particularly high, the
prediction above shows the highest solar flux (135) over that
weekend, and planetary A index at a low value of 5, indicating
predicted geomagnetic stability. But of course, things may change.

The comment above about Solar Cycle 19 in the ARRL Letter brought
this response, from a ham who was there, and just in time for
Friday's bulletin.

Roger, K6LMN in Los Angeles, California wrote:

"10 meters SSB and the beacons most days are very good. South
America comes as if over a coax cable terminating here in Los
Angeles.  But I need 6 more countries worked/confirmed on 10M SSB to
make 150.

"Also please wake up the 'magic band' 6m because I need a few more
grids on 6M SSB to make 425 confirmed.

"Solar Cycle 24 was OK on 6M and I'm hoping 6M goes wide open this
Solar Cycle 25, after all I am 84 years old and probably this is my
last solar cycle.

"I need more Euro stations and am sorely lacking on the Middle East
and parts of Africa. I cannot compete with you East Coasters.
Namibia was coming in the other day, but the Midwest and east
coasters fought it out. No luck so I gave up. Ah, but I get even
with you easterners since the Pacific area is a piece of cake here
in Los Angeles.

"About Solar Cycle 19. I was a teenager when licensed in 1955 as a
Novice. I heard stations from all over the world on HF and 6M. I
hurried up and got my Tech license and then my General a few years
later.

"HF and 6M stations were coming in 24/7 from all over the world. I
only had 90 watts and a dipole, all on AM, but WOW the stuff I
worked and heard was just incredible.  Mostly peaking around
1956-1957!"

OK1HH writes:

"Over the past two weeks, several active regions crossed the solar
disk, the most significant was the trio of AR3140, AR3141 and
AR3145, which crossed the central meridian on November 10-11.

"Most attention was drawn to the magnetically complex and almost
daily flare-producing AR3141, which allowed a smaller version of
itself to grow in its northwestern part. The result (see https://bit.ly/3Askfyi[1] ) reminded fans of 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the
Galaxy President Zaphod Beeblebrox.'

"The solar flux has not dropped below 130 sfu since November 5,
while the Earth's magnetic field has been quiet since November 9.
The result has been a relatively long period of above-average
shortwave propagation conditions.

"Beginning November 17, we expected an increase in geomagnetic
activity as a consequence of, among other things, the CME of
November 14. However, there will likely be a delay of a day or two
from the original forecast. Therefore, if the disturbance begins on
November 18 or 19, preferably during the daylight hours, there may
be further improvement in conditions, and deterioration in the next
phase of the disturbance."

ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend. Even if you are not a serious
contest operator, it is easy and fun to give out fresh contacts to
stations on the air, especially toward the end of the event when
participants are eager for new, fresh stations.

A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM[2]

Here is a video that makes it appear there is a Sun serpent:

https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR[3]

Thanks to reader David Moore for the following online stories on
solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3V6jinh[4]

https://bit.ly/3V0isIY[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16, 2022 were 79, 57, 65,
74, 77, 69, and 85, with a mean of 72.3. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7,
137.6, 138.2, 137, 141.5, 134.2, and 132.9, with a mean of 137.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 5, 7, 4, 2, and 2, with a
mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 3, 6, 3, 2, and 2,
with a mean of 3.9.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3Askfyi
[2] https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM
[3] https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR
[4] https://bit.ly/3V6jinh
[5] https://bit.ly/3V0isIY
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/02/2022

No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24 to 30.  But sunspots were visible every day.  Then on December 1 three new sunspot groups emerged.  The sunspot number rose from 12 to 49 and the total sunspot area went from 10 to 330.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined during this reporting week (November 24 to 30), with average daily Sunspot number dropping from 66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.

Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to 18.6,and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.

On Wednesday, November 30 the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska showed the college A index at 54, the highest value over the past month.  No doubt this produced aurora.  The next day the disturbance continued, with collage A index at 51.  These are very large numbers.

The current prediction from Thursday night has solar flux reaching a peak of 130 this weekend, rather than 135 recently predicted.  This is much earlier than the prediction in yesterday's ARRL Letter.  We might also see solar flux below 100 around December 24.

Look for flux values of 120 and 124 on December 2 and 3, 130 on December 4 and 5, 125 on December 6 and 7, then 120, 125, 125, 130, 115 and 110 on December 8 to 13, 105 on December 14 to 17, 100 on December 18 to 23, then 95, 105 and 110 on December 24 to 26, 115 on December 27 to 30, and 120 on December 31, then 125 on January 1 to 6, 2023.

The planetary A index prediction is 20, 10, 18 and 12 on December 2 to 5, 5 on December 6 and 7, 10 and 8 on December 8 and 9, 5 on December 10 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21, then 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 to 25, then 15, 18, 10, 18 and 10 on December 26 to 30, 5 on December 31 through January 3, 2023, 8 on January 4 and 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12.

OK1HH wrote:

"The course of solar and geomagnetic activity and therefore the course of shortwave propagation in the last seven days differed significantly from the week before.

The solar wind speed has increased significantly (from 300 km/s to a fluctuation between 700 and 800 km/s) and the activity of Earth's magnetic field mostly increased.

The changes began on 25 November at 0230 UTC when a shock wave in the solar wind hit the Earth.  In the ionosphere we could first observe an increase in MUF.  Further development of the disturbance continued only by further irregular deterioration of shortwave propagation.

Enhanced solar flaring activity, including Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), did give rise to predictions of higher geomagnetic activity, but without the possibility of more precise timing.

On December 1, a new larger sunspot group appeared over the southeastern limb of the Sun.  So solar activity will not drop but will probably rise again over the next few days.

Shortwave propagation should therefore no longer deteriorate, rather the shortest shortwave bands will gradually open up a little better. In the northern hemisphere of the Earth, however, the opening intervals will be shorter than in recent weeks."

Research: "Iterative Construction of the Optimal Sunspot-Number Series"

https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX[1]

This one is spreading fast, all about hams in Montana on PBS:

https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/[2]

Thanks to K7SS and N7SO for the above.

Solar wind news:

https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . 

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9]
 .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10]  .

Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30, 2022 were 61, 55, 60, 56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46.  10.7 cm flux was 109.7, 108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3.  Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24, with a mean of 18.6.  Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18, 20, and 17, with a mean of 14.


[1] https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX
[2] https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/
[3] https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW
[4] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive.propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/16/2022

Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the
great conditions during last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter contest.

Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from
137.5 to 150.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index decreasing
from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index from 9.1 to 6.

Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators is an ideal
combination for favorable HF propagation.

New sunspots appeared every day except December 12, with one new
sunspot on December 8, another on December 9, and three more on
December 10, another on December 13 and one more on December 14.

N0JK commented on the ARRL 10 Meter contest:

"What a difference a year makes. 10 was wide open this year for the
ARRL 10M contest with strong single hop F2 from Kansas to both
coasts. Europe and Japan in, and I completed WAC (Worked All
Continents). Operated fixed mobile with 1/4 wave whip. Solar flux
this year was 148, last year only 78."

The latest prediction from the USAF via NOAA shows solar flux at
164, 162, 160, 158, 154, 152 and 150 on December 16-22, then 120 on
December 23-28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29-31, 145 on
January 1-8, 2023, then 140, 130, 125 and 120 on January 9-12, and
115 on January 13-18, then 120 on January 19-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-17, 10 on December
18, 8 on December 19-20, then 12, 8, and 15 on December 21-23, 20 on
December 24-28, then 12, 10, 12, 8, 5 and 18 on December 29 through
January 3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, 8 on January 6, 5 on January
7-14, 10 on January 15-16, then 5, 20, 15 and 12 on January 17-20,
and 20 on January 21-24.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Evolving solar activity was erratic over the last seven days,
starting with the Earth entering a high-speed solar wind stream (up
to 600 km/s) on 8 December.

"It came from a canyon-shaped coronal hole that approached the
western limb of the solar disk. The day after, a magnetic filament
erupted in the Sun's southern hemisphere, but the CME was weak.

"We expected a slight increase in solar wind speed around December
12. However, not only did this not occur, but the solar wind slowed
to 350 km/s in the following days. At the same time, the Earth's
magnetic field calmed down.

"On 12 December, nine groups of sunspots were observed on the Sun,
the largest number so far in the 25th Solar Cycle. Two days later
there were eleven sunspot groups.

"Of these, two regions (AR 3163 and 3165, both with the Beta-Gamma
magnetic configuration) had moderately strong flares (the strongest
on 14 December at 1442 UT was M6 class, produced the Dellinger
effect up to a frequency of 15 MHz). The ejected CMEs have missed
the Earth for now, and we can expect a possible hit from AR3163. The
increase in solar radiation caused an increase in MUF and therefore
the shortest shortwave bands opened up regularly.

"Decrease in solar activity, increasing geomagnetic activity and
worsening of short wave disturbances can be expected after December
20."

The Dellinger Effect is an SID, or "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance."

https://bit.ly/3HCHytO[1]

David Moore shares this about our Sun's middle corona:

https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O[2]

Nine new sunspots. I do not agree that they are dangerous:

https://bit.ly/3FuPniB[3]

Interesting speculation. What happens to cryptocurrency during a
Carrington event?

https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR[4]

Newsweek reports on the terminator event:

https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3[5]

More and more news about flares:

https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc[6]

https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK[7]

https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k[8]

Another Solar Cycle 19?

https://bit.ly/3FYgioi[9]

N0JK reports:

"Some sporadic-E to W1 from Kansas December 15. Logged K1SIX FN43."

More 6 meter news from KM0T:

"Well, it took since 1999, but I finally worked my first ZL. In
fact, 8 of them. Opening lasted on and off here for about an hour.
Started hearing them just after 0000 UTC. EN40s were working them
first for about 10 minutes before, which tipped me off. I Then
worked AA7A in Arizona at +25, so there was a link perhaps to TEP F2
hop.

"There was one station calling an FO, but never saw any report of
the monitoring FO station showing up on PSK reporter. FO was on the
exact path to ZL, but I don't think there was a hop there, perhaps a
blind caller to FO. If anyone actually heard them or worked them,
let us know as that would be an interesting path.

"My antennas were as low to the ground as they could be due to the
ice storm.  Bottom antenna about 25 feet.  (Stacked 6el over 6el,
20' apart.)

"Now that I think about it, flux was 151 and SSN 148.

"I'm pretty sure it was E-skip link, just like when I worked Chatham
Island here some months ago.

"The SW had all kinds of storms (as the whole USA did).  I heard snow
and rain and 'thunder snow' in Arizona.

"That would make sense of such a strong E-skip link to the SW. With
the flux only at 151, seems to me this is a good number for TEP if
you're in the right spot, but not enough to make it to the upper
Midwest with true F2.

"I was lucky that our area had ice only in the morning.  It rained
pretty much all day with bouts of ice, but by the time evening came
around, my ice was off the antennas.

"Signals were strong actually. I gave -01 to -17 reports on the ZLs.
+25 and just below given to stateside 7-land stations I worked in
between the ZLs.

"First ZL was at 0003 - ZL3NW with -11 sig - I got a -07 report.
Strongest ZL was at 0033 - ZL3JT with a -01 sig.  He gave me a +00.

"Last ZL was ZL1AKW, where the spotlight moved a bit north.  At 0107
UTC - he had -06 sig and I got a -19 report."

He did not mention a mode but judging from the signal reports it was
probably FT8 or FT4.

W2ZDP reported on December 14:

"There was a great 6 meter opening yesterday. I first noticed it
around 2020Z and worked 12 stations in grid 'EM,' all on FT8.

"I also noticed that a few of them were working ZLs although I
didn't see the response. After the local 2 meter net at 7 PM local
time, I again worked a few stations in 'EM' when I started seeing
both sides of ZLs working stateside stations. After several
attempts, I finally worked ZL1RS at 0100Z from FM04. Not too bad for
100 watts and a 4 element beam at 30 feet!"

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, has an
informative new video:

https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[12] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[13] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[14] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[17] .

Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14, 2022 were 115, 116, 111,
141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of 136.9. 10.7 cm flux was 143,
149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and 164.7, with a mean of 150.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with
a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3,
with a mean of 6.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3HCHytO
[2] https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O
[3] https://bit.ly/3FuPniB
[4] https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR
[5] https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3
[6] https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc
[7] https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK
[8] https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k
[9] https://bit.ly/3FYgioi
[10] https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY
[11] k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[13] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[14] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/10/2023

Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 29, one more on December 30 and another on January 1, then two more on January 5.

Solar activity was a little higher, with average daily sunspot
number rising from 96.1 to 97, and solar flux averages rose 14
points to 157.8.

On Thursday, January 5 the sunspot number rose to 103, above the
average of 96.1 over the previous seven days.

Predicted solar flux is 154 on January 6, 152 on January 7-8, 150 on
January 9, 148 on January 10-11, then 146, 148 and 145 on January
12-14, 140 on January 15-16, 145 on January 17-19, 150 and 155 on
January 20-21, 160 on January 22-23, 165 on January 24-26, then 160,
155, 155, 158 and 155 on January 27-31, 150 and 148 on February 1-2,
145 on February 3-4, 140 on February 5-6, 150 on February 7-9, 145
on February 10, 140 on February 11-12, and 145 on February 13-15.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on January 6-7, 5 on January
8-16, then 8, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on January 17-21, 5 on January
22-24, then 8, 28, 15 and 10 on January 25-28, and 5 on January
29-30, 18 on January 31 through February 1,15 and 10 on February
2-3, and 5 on February 4-12.

OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity increased so rapidly in recent years that earlier
last year it already reached the level predicted for July 2025, the
predicted peak of the current 25th solar cycle. The year 2022 ended
with the highest monthly sunspot count in 7 years.

"Solar flares are already routinely of moderate magnitude (M-class
in X-rays), while geomagnetic disturbances are so far only very
rarely in a higher class than G1 (minor). In the G1 class was also
the disturbance on 30 December, which was triggered by a CIR
(co-rotating interaction region) impact, as predicted.

"This week the Earth is in the impact zone of possible eruptions in
the AR3176 sunspot group directly opposite our planet, which
produces M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, on December 30
at 1938 UTC, was class M3.7, which sent a CME toward Earth with an
expected arrival on January 4 - and the prediction proved correct -
the disturbance began at 0254 UTC.

"The CMEs filled the space between the Sun and Earth, and clouds of
solar plasma shielded the incoming cosmic rays enough to reach a
six-year low.

"Thus, since 26 December, we can observe the 'Forbush Decline,'
named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic
rays in the early 20th century and first noticed the relationship
between them and solar activity. With more CMEs hitting Earth, the
cosmic ray decline will grow.

"On January 3 at 1058 UTC, something exploded on the far side of the
Sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) detected a bright
CME sweeping across the southeastern limb of the Sun. The source of
the outburst was likely the old sunspot AR3163, which has been on
the Sun's far side for the past two weeks. We are now starting to
see it on the solar disk as AR3182, and we might tentatively expect
an X-class flare from it.

"The Geminid meteor shower is coming to Earth these days. On the
first three days of January, the most meteors arrived on January 3
at 2127 UTC when the Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) of 125.3 was
calculated. Also, the activity of the sporadic-E layer in the
ionosphere increased, which we immediately noticed in the fading
shortwave propagation conditions (because sporadic-E is sporadic).

"ZHR (Zenithal Hourly Rate) of a meteor shower is the number of
meteors a single observer would see in an hour of peak activity if
it was at the zenith, assuming the observing conditions are
excellent (when and where stars with apparent magnitudes up to 6.5
are visible to the naked eye)."

OK1HH mentioned sunspot numbers are ahead of the consensus forecast for Solar Cycle 25, so we will compare averages from a year ago with current numbers.

In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP001 for 2022, the average
sunspot number reported was 36.4, and 97 in the current report.
Average solar flux a year ago was 91.4, compared to 157.8 this week.

Reader David Moore sends along this link about our Sun's corona:

https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz[1]

Here is an article on Siberian Radioheliograph:

https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm[2]

Solar outburst:

https://bit.ly/3X6oUio[3]

A record of old sunspot numbers can be found here:

https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2[4]

Solar Terrestrial Activity Report:

http://www.solen.info/solar/[5]

Identifying unknown HF signals:

https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

Sunspot numbers for December 29, 2022 through January 4, 2023 were
113, 121, 82, 94, 94, 89, and 86, with a mean of 97. 10.7 cm flux
was 162.8, 178.3, 164.9, 152.6, 146.4, 148.5, and 151, with a mean
of 157.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 31, 16, 14, 8, 7,
and 21, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 22, 10,
9, 5, 5, and 17, with a mean of 10.9.


[1] https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz
[2] https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm
[3] https://bit.ly/3X6oUio
[4] https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2
[5] http://www.solen.info/solar/
[6] https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/13/2023

Wow! Sunspot numbers up, geomagnetic disturbances down. What could
be better? Okay, maybe Solar Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and
by far the all time largest.

But this is now, we are in Solar Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is
emerging better than the consensus forecast. It is predicted to peak
about 30 months from now in Summer 2025.

Solar cycles tend to ramp up faster than they decline, so we look
forward to great HF propagation for years to come.

There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week,
January 5-11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January
8, another on January 9  two more January 10 and still another on
January 12, when the sunspot number was 151.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and average
daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to the previous seven
days.

On Thursday, January 12 the noon solar flux was huge, 211.6, far
above the 181.2 average for the previous week.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and
middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.

Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago in Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 the average daily sunspot number was only
42.4 (135.9 now) and average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now).
10 and 12 meters now have openings every day.

The solar flux prediction was revised dramatically upward between
the Wednesday numbers in Thursday's ARRL Letter and the Thursday
numbers in this bulletin, from 196 to 210 for January 13.

Predicted solar flux is 210 on January 13 and 14, then 208, 206 and
204 on January 15-17, 200 on January 18-19, then 180, 160, 130 and
135 on January 20-23, 140 on January 24-26, 145 on January 27, then
155, 155 and 160 on January 28-30, 170 on January 31 through
February 2, 175 and 180 on February 3-4, 185 on February 5-6, then
180, 178 and 175 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-12, 145 on
February 13, 140 on February 14-16, 130 on February 17-18 and
increasing to 160 by the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, and 8 on January 13-15, 5 on
January 16-17, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on January 18-21, 5 on January
22-24, then 8, 22, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January 29-31,
then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-5, then 10, 12 and 8
on February 6-8, 5 on February 9-13, then 8, 15, 10 and 7 on
February 14-17, and 5 on February 18-20.

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"There was a 6 meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America
January 6, 2023 around 1530 UTC, mostly between the Southeast United
States and Ecuador. Solar Flux was 172.4.

"Later there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 Meters. I logged W4IMD
(EM84) at 1942 UTC and W7JW (EN82) on 6 meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC
January 6.

"High Solar Activity this week."

N0JK writes "The World Above 50 MHz" column in QST.

https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz[1]

OK1HH wrote:

"Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
helioseismology after the beginning of this year, showed that the
region of active heliographic longitude, gradually approached the
eastern limb of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their
arrival. Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11.
Yet one solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two
turns back (November 18) only 116.

"The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
maximum at 0057 UTC.

Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles never
left the Sun.

"In the following days AR3182 activity was joined by the newly
erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An X-class
flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 at 1850 UTC).

"Since most of the large flares in the last few days occurred when
it was nighttime in Europe, blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
the eruption on January 9 at 1850 UTC that a shortwave blackout was
seen in the western Atlantic, including east coast of the U.S. On
January 10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new
sunspot group AR3186.

"As active regions approach the central meridian, the probability of
Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or more
importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
conditions gradually somewhat worsens during disturbances that are
difficult to predict accurately."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Pennsylvania (FN20jq) reported, "On
Thursday, January 12, 29.6 MHz FM went active with 3-hop sporadic-E transatlantic propagation to England, Spain from 1346 thru 1600 UTC,
then to single hop Es to Puerto Rico at 1813 UTC.

"Readability ranged from (1) unreadable to (4) practically no
difficulty, Strength ranged from (1) faint - signals barely
perceptible to (5) fairly good signals. All signals had deep QSB.

"Time UTC:    Callsign:      Grid:           Miles
1346               G3YPZ        JO02bs      3,494
1354,1528      G4RIE          IO83rn       3,372
1413,1521      2E0PLO       IO91wm     3,511
1600               EA2CCG      IN92ao      3,660
1813               KP4NVX      FK68vl       1,625"

Here is a photo of the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR[2]

One of a Solar flare:

https://bit.ly/3W9EWav[3]

Solar news in the Washington Post:

https://wapo.st/3iul6sN[4]

An article on Radio blackouts:

https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV[5]

The Parker Solar Probe:

https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic[6]

The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8].

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers January 5 through 11, 2023 were 103, 101, 104, 117,
142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. 10.7 cm flux was 154.3,
172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a
mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8,
with a mean of 6.1.
 


[1] https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz
[2] https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR
[3] https://bit.ly/3W9EWav
[4] https://wapo.st/3iul6sN
[5] https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV
[6] https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic
[7] https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

02/24/2023

Solar activity plunged this reporting week, although there was great
the excitement when the solar flux on February 17 was reported as a
record breaking 343.1.

Because it was the noon reading, it is still reported by NOAA as the
solar flux, but this was a false reading when the observatory at
Penticton, British Columbia was swamped by energy from a solar
flare.

So, in this report, I have chosen the 1800 UTC flux value, which was
165.

Average daily sunspot number plunged from 182.4 to 107, while
average solar flux dropped from 196.4 to 162.4. If I had not changed
the 343.1 to 165, solar flux average would have been 187.9, more
than 25 points higher than what we report here.

Six new sunspots emerged over the week, one on February 16, one each
on February 18 and 19, and three more on February 20, then one day
after the end of the reporting week, on February 23, two more
sunspot groups appeared.

The solar flux prediction for the next month shows a peak value of
180 for March 7-13.

Predicted values are 148 on February 24, 146 on February 25-27, 142
on February 28, 140 on March 1-2, 145, 150, 155, and 165 on March
3-6, 180 on March 7-13, then 175 and 170 on March 14-15, 160 on
March 16-17, then 155, 160, 150, 140 and 135 on March 18-22, 125 on
March 23-24, 130 on March 25, then 140 on March 26-28, 145 on March
29-30, then 150, 155 and 165 on March 31 through April 2. Beginning
on April 3, predicted flux values are back to 180, continuing into
the following week.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on February 24-25, then 12, 18,
20, 16 and 10 on February 26 through March 2, 5 on March 3-4, then
15, 18, 15 and 8 on March 5-8, 5 on March 9-14, 15 on March 15, 8 on
March 16-17, 5 on March 18-20, 10 on March 21-23, 5 on March 24-25,
and 8 on March 26-27, then 5, 8, 5, 5, 15, 18, 15 and 8 on March 28
through April 4.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"A week ago, on February 17, we vainly awaited the arrival of a CME,
and at least a weak G1-class geomagnetic storm. Instead, on February
17 at 2016 UTC, we were treated to a strong X2.2-class solar flare
in the newly emerging sunspot group AR3229. X-ray and UV radiation
as well triggered the Dellinger Effect over the Americas.  The
Dellinger Effect is a Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance.

"Frequencies up to 30 MHz were attenuated for more than an hour
after the flare. The arrival of the CME affected the Earth's
magnetic field at 1039 UTC on February 20. However, most of the
particle cloud passed outside the Earth, therefore there was no
geomagnetic storm, but only an increase in geomagnetic activity.

"The new AR3234 produced M-class flares in the following days.
Dellinger events could only affect radio wave propagation up to 20
MHz (as long as we had the Sun overhead, of course).

"Thereafter no significant flares were observed, so no CMEs were
directed toward us. But that may change when AR3234 turns toward
Earth. In other words, when the Sun's rotation moves it to the
central meridian, which will happen by the end of the week.
Primarily, the overall activity of the Sun and most likely the
Earth's magnetic field will depend on its activity."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"There was a nice 6 meter F2 opening on February 16.

"I logged HC1MD/2 in grid FI57 on 50 MHz FT8 at 1916 UTC. I found
this opening by checking the DX Maps website. HC1MD/2 had a strong,
steady signal. I operated from home using an attic dipole antenna.
Also logged HC2FG.

"Other area 6 meter operators such as WQ0P (EM19) and KF0M (EM17)
also worked stations in Chile. The K index was 4, which I suspect
may have helped.

"On February 18 a number of North American stations worked Robert,
3B9FR around 1600 UTC on 6 Meter FT8.

"3B9FR is on Rodriguez Island in the Indian Ocean off the southeast
coast of South Africa.

"Conditions were great in the ARRL International DX CW Contest on 10
meters. I operated a couple of hours Sunday morning running 5 watts
and a quarter wave whip fixed mobile. Worked over a hundred stations
in Europe, the Caribbean, South America and Africa. Many of the
Europeans were over S-9."

Dick, K2KA wrote:

"February 21 at 1544 UTC on 6 meters I worked FR4OO and then at 1558
UTC I worked 3B9FR. Both were FT8. I happened to be at the radio at
the right time. It was an amazing albeit brief opening here. They
were obviously new countries for me on 6 meters. They were #120 and
#121, respectively.

"My station here is IC-7610, ACOM 700s, antenna is a M2 6M7JHV 7el
on 30 ft. boom at 40 ft."

A story about a Solar Tsunami:

https://yhoo.it/3EyYOxJ[1]

A time-lapse video of a Flare:

https://bit.ly/3Ikc0aQ[2]

Aki, JQ2UOZ wrote:

"Last weekend I participated in the ARRL International DX CW Contest
using an output power of 500 mW and a dipole antenna.

"The band conditions on 10m and 15m were amazing. I worked 9 East
Coast stations (VT, ME, DE, CT, NY, NH, PA, VA and FL) on 10m and 6
East Coast stations (MA, 2 NH, 2 PA and MD) on 15m. Usually, the
band conditions on 10m in February are not so good even at the
sunspot cycle maximum. This is the first time I worked East Coast
stations on 10m in the ARRL International DX CW Contest using 0.5W
and a dipole. Thanks to good-ears stations who worked me."

Scott Hower wrote:

"With the exception of Thursday the 16th, 10 meters was hot this
week. On Wednesday February 15th I decoded 3A2MW in Monaco around
1233 to 1300 UTC using FT8 with his signal level as high as -13 dB.
This is the first time I have ever been able to receive Franco's
signal after years of trying on 10 meters. Unfortunately, he could
not receive me. 9N7AA has also been coming in every morning (except
the 16th) with levels as high as -1 dB using FT8 F/H. I finally
logged him on Friday the 17th."

Scott did not mention his call sign, but I think he may be K7KQ.

Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/wm7tXN2EUCY[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for February 16 through 22, 2023 were 101, 86, 109,
112, 135, 106, and 100, with a mean of 107. 10.7 cm flux was 163.2,
165, 167.2, 169, 159.8, 160.9, and 151.9, with a mean of 162.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 6, 6, 7, 8, 17, and 6, with a
mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 21, 4, 5, 4, 6, 15, and 4,
with a mean of 8.4.

 


[1] https://yhoo.it/3EyYOxJ
[2] https://bit.ly/3Ikc0aQ
[3] https://youtu.be/wm7tXN2EUCY
[4] k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/03/2023

This was a busy week for geomagnetic storms. A solar wind stream
from an equatorial hole and a CME blew geomagnetic numbers seemingly
off the scale, with the planetary A index on Monday hitting 94.
Aurora was visible as far south as 40 degrees latitude. Imagine a
line running from Reno, Nevada through Provo, Utah then Denver, then
the Kansas-Nebraska state line, Quincy, Illinois, Dayton, Ohio and Philadelphia.

This week the source of the 10.7 cm solar flux, the DRAO observatory
at Penticton, British Columbia, was again saturated by solar wind on
February 25 and the measurement was 279.3. NOAA corrected this to
152, which I thought was a bit too low. The other recent saturation
was on February 17 at 343.1, but for some reason NOAA let this
stand.

I corrected it in this bulletin to 165, which was that morning's
1800 UTC reading:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt[1]

This week we saw two new sunspot groups appear on February 23,
another on the following day, another on February 27, on February 28
one more, two more on March 1, and another on March 2.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 107 to 126.3, but average
daily solar flux declined from 162.4 to 158.2.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 10.6 to 27.7.

Over the next few weeks it appears that solar flux values should hit
a peak around March 17-18.

Predicted solar flux is 165 March 3-5, 170 and 175 on March 6-7, 180
on March 8-9, 165 on March 10-12, 170 on March 13-15, 175 on March
16, 180 on March 17-18, then 175, 170 and 165 on March 19-21, 160 on
March 22-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on March 27-28, then 145 on
March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155 and 160 on March 31 through
April 4, then 165 on April 5-8, and 170 on April 9-11.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, 20, 18, 16 and 8 on March 3-8,
5 on March 9-14, then 15, 8, 8, 5, 8 and 15 on March 15-20, 5 on
March 21-23, then 12, 16, 56, 32, 16 and 10 on March 24-29, 8 on
March 30-31, then 16, 18, 15 and 8 on April 1-4, and 5 on April
5-10.

Note the predicted A index of 56 and 32 on March 26-27, suggest a
return of this week's disturbance in the next solar rotation.

Here is a Newsweek report about radio blackout:

https://bit.ly/3YsJREJ[2]

A story from Sky & Telescope:

https://bit.ly/3ZbC1As[3]

Click past all the offers and pop-ups to view this article:

https://bit.ly/3ymZrqR[4]

That report is from Western Washington, where I live. Unfortunately
the sky was overcast, but observers in Eastern Washington were able
to see the aurora. Remember that many of the aurora images you see
were from cameras with a long exposure time, which makes them much
brighter than what you see with unassisted vision.

Thanks to spaceweather.com for this NASA movie of sunspot group
AR3234 growing as it comes over our Sun's eastern limb:

https://bit.ly/3J1IIiJ[5]

Spaceweather.com[6] also reported that the average sunspot number for
February was among the highest of the last 10 years.

Here is data on Solar Cycle 25 progress:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[7]

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 3-9, 2023:

"Quiet: March 3-5, 9
Unsettled: March 4-6, 8-9
Active: March 6-7
Minor storm: possible March 6-7

"At February 27, we recorded the highest geomagnetic activity since
2008. At Budkov observatory, the three last K indices of this day
were at level 6. Over the next few days we expect geomagnetic
activity decrease. Until Sunday, March 5, we expect mostly quiet
conditions. More unsettled conditions are expected between Sunday,
March 5, and Thursday, March 9.

"Between March 6-7, active conditions with likely storming event is
possible. Wednesday, March 7, we expect unsettled conditions.

"Tomas Bayer, Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague, Budkov
observatory (BDV)."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere March 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"A week ago, we observed an increase in the size and flare activity
of sunspot group AR3234 in the northeast of the solar disk. But more interesting was the activity in the northwestern quadrant, where a
magnetic filament associated with the relatively little noticeable
sunspot AR3229 erupted on February 24. It set off a chain reaction
in which the filament lifted off and cut through the solar
atmosphere at 1949 UTC.

"In AR3229 a long-duration M3-class solar flare (LDE) at 2030 UTC,
with a CME, partially directed toward Earth. At the same time,
gaseous material flowed from an equatorial coronal hole in the solar atmosphere. Earth was hit by two CMEs on February 27 and 28. The
arrival of the first one was followed by a G1 to G2 class
geomagnetic storm, while the second was followed by a G3 class
storm.

"In the ever-growing sunspot group AR3234, already in the
northwestern solar disk, an M8.6-class solar flare with a possible
weak CME was observed at 1750 UTC on 28 February.

"Simultaneously, the Dellinger effect knocked out shortwave links at frequencies up to 30 MHz around the Pacific Ocean with a duration up
to one hour.

"The CME is expected to arrive at Earth perhaps as late as March 4,
delivering only a glancing blow to the Earth's magnetic field.
Starting on March 4, a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm is likely.
Solar activity will not decrease, as another active region in the
southeastern solar disk will emerge in the meantime."

Here is a conversation about 6 meters:

"Gents, some 6M DX to report here at KM0T.

"Last few days, February 25-27, there was some DX worked locally so
I was trying to keep an eye on things. Then we got some aurora from
some flare impacts, and sure enough on the 27th got a few ZL and VK
decodes, lots of the Midwest worked some, but too scattered for me.
Also decoded FK8CP, who I have been chasing a card from a 2014 CW
contact.

"So Tuesday afternoon the 28th, was at the radio doing other shack
items when I saw a FT8 decode from VK4HJ at 2306 UTC working a W9
station. Proceeded to call him and worked at 2309 UTC with his -10
signal. Worked VK4WTJ at 2315 UTC with him coming in at -15.

"I then started to see decodes from FK8CP and FK8HA on and off for
the next 15 minutes. I worked FK8HA in RG37 with his -18 digs at
2344 UTC, I received a -20 report, took about 4 minutes once I got
his attention.

"During this whole time, I was calling FK8CP on and off between
trying others when they popped up. VK4MA came in at 2351 UTC with
his -09 digs. FK8CP was calling CQ WI all the time, but with FT8 you
can still answer, so I kept thinking why is he calling for
Wisconsin? Then figured that it was 'West Indies' (lol). He finally
relented and I worked him on FT8 around 0009 UTC with -13 sig report
from him.

"The whole thing about New Caledonia is that I worked FK8CP on 6M in
2014 on CW, but forgot back then to try for a card. Going through my
logs for 6M DXCC showed the errors of my ways and I started to send
cards back around 2020 since he was not LoTW. First one got returned
around 6 months later, the post master said he did not know why,
perhaps a typhoon. Then I tried again, but no answer for a long
time. Got returned again, about a year later. I thought perhaps he
was a SK, but his web page on QRZ did not leave any other contact
info other than regular mail.

"I forgot about it for a long time until I decoded him a few days
ago. I checked his QRZ page and it said due to Covid-19, mail has
been an issue for a very long time. So I got my card out and
readdressed a new envelope, went to the post office this morning and
mailed the card again. Wow, then I worked him that same day on FT8!
9 years later - too funny!

"73, Mike, KM0T.

"PS - Definitely F2, Not strong, but in and out. No Es to the SW
that I could tell. I worked VK and ZL on SSB 10 meters earlier,
about 2200 UTC with 80W. That band was in good shape and quiet, had
a 20 minute chat with a ZL with no QSB."

I (K7RA) asked, "When there is a geomagnetic storm and we see
openings on 6 meters, is it always due to auroral propagation?"

The response from Mike King, KM0T, to K7RA:

"Tad, in my experience on 6M, aurora gives your standard aurora
propagation early on during the actual aurora. Northern latitude
Midwest and NE - NW stations, with the typical auroral sound to SSB
and CW.

"Then later that same night we can get auroral-E skip, which may or
may not sound like aurora. Very typical to work Alaska later at
night after an aurora or auroral Es (at least from my location).

"Then after a night of aurora, I have always been on the lookout the
next day for F2/TEP/Chordal hop. When the flux is hovering around
160 or so, and there is really no F2 at 50 MHz from the Midwest, an
Aurora the previous day means that we got hit with a CME and the
whole thing could still be charged up. Thus when we get full
sunlight, I have seen many times F2/TEP propagation from the Midwest
that I would not normally get. It lasts just that one day typically
unless we get hit with more from the Sun.

"From here in the Midwest it's East or West F2 to Caribbean, Africa,
Indian Ocean, South America and Oceania. I don't believe I have seen
it to EU the next day.  (If you're in Texas, SW - SE, even better
for you - but they get that TEP much more than us...location,
location, location.)

"I have worked Scandinavia over the pole path a few times at
nighttime during an aurora via aurora-Es or F2, could never really
tell. So if E-skip it would be multi hop like a summertime day, but
had an auroral quality to those contacts. In my mind I always called
aurora enhanced F2.

"For me, having a decent aurora with flux being around 160, I feel
it's one of the best clues I get for looking for when 6M might do
wild things the next day. Throw this coming summertime auroras in
during the 6M E-skip season, those days after an aurora might be
crazy!

"73 Mike, KM0T"

Here is a response from Jon Jones, N0JK:

"Tad, Mike:

"Agree with Mike's comments and good summary.

"The aurora geomagnetic activity can increase F-layer MUF,
especially when in the sunlight. Sometimes during an aurora F2 can
appear. The more common scenario is the one Mike describes. Aurora
during the night and F2 propagation the next day. That is what
happened Monday February 27.  Tuesday was some left over F2, K still
elevated.

"Yesterday (March 1) the K index around 2. I copied Pipe, CE3SX for
4 FT8 sequences on 50.313 MHz at 2111 UTC. No luck with a contact.
Saw him send K0SIX (EN35) 'RR73.'

"Yes and left over F2 the 2nd day after the aurora like yesterday,
is normally only North South Propagation for me (Midwest) over the
TEP zone, which I worked one CE station for fun, decoded a bunch of
LUs, CX and CE, but had to leave for hockey practice."

Jon Jones added at 2035 UTC on Thursday:

"6 Meters popped open to Ecuador early in the afternoon March 2 on
F2. I was at work, able to take a break around 1910 UTC. Set up from
car - 1/4 wave whip and 10 watt MFJ-9406 radio. Many very loud
decodes on FT8 from Ecuador. Called several stations. At 1925 UTC
HC1DX called me on FT8 and we completed. Received a '-17 dB' report.
N0LL/P was on from rare grid EN01 and worked several in Ecuador.
Around 1900 UTC seems to be a good time frame for 6 Meter F2 to the
south."

The phone portion of the ARRL DX Contest is this weekend.

http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.[9] When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for February 23 through March 1 2023 were 108, 130,
129, 120, 192, 100, and 105, with a mean of 126.3. 10.7 cm flux was
148.2, 164.1, 152, 159, 161.2, 160.9, and 162, with a mean of 158.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 22, 6, 10, 26, 94, 28, and 8,
with a mean of 27.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 4, 9, 18, 60,
19, and 6, with a mean of 18.9.

 


[1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
[2] https://bit.ly/3YsJREJ
[3] https://bit.ly/3ZbC1As
[4] https://bit.ly/3ymZrqR
[5] https://bit.ly/3J1IIiJ
[6] http://Spaceweather.com
[7] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[8] http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx
[9] k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/17/2023

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, two on March 9,
another on March 10, one more on March 12, and another two on March
14.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week.

Average daily sunspot numbers softened from 143.6 to 118.7, and
average daily solar flux from 181.6 to 153.6.

Predicted solar flux is 135, 140, 138, and 135 on March 17-20, then
132, 132 and 130 on March 21-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on March
27-28, 145 on March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March
31 through April 4, 165 on April 5-8, 170 on April 9-11, then 175,
180, 180, 175, 170 and 165 on April 12-17, 160 on April 18-19, 155
on April 20-21, then 140, 150, 150 and 145 on April 22-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 5, 12 and 8 on March 17-21,
then 5, 5, 12, 16 and 26 on March 22-26, then 18, 10, 8, 24 and 22
on March 27-31, then 16 on April 1-2, then 14, 12, 8 and 10 on April
3-6, 8 on April 7-8, then 5, 8, 22 and 8 on April 9-12, 5 on April
13-14, then 8 and 16 on April 15-16, 5 on April 17-19, then 12, 16,
26 and 18 on April 20-23.

Check out this propagation modeling site, sent from WB6MPH.

https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/[1]

Jon, N0JK wrote:

"On March 15 there was a CME impact. The Kp peaked at 6. 6 meters
opened to South America. I logged HK3O in FJ24 at 2042 UTC on FT8.
Decoded many stations in Argentina and Ecuador."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 16, 2023 from OK1HH, F.K. Janda.

"The level of solar activity is only slightly lower than during the
last solar rotation, but this is especially true below the Sun's
equator. There is higher activity on the far side of the Sun.

"There was exceptional phenomenon recorded by coronagraphs on
satellites on March 13. It was a 'halo CME' that apparently left the
Sun at more than 3,000 km/s. Although the plasma cloud was not
heading towards Earth, it still touched it. We can't pinpoint its
source, but helioseismic maps show a pair of large active regions on
the far side of the Sun. Both will emerge within days on the eastern
limb of the solar disk.

"The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was recorded from the morning
of the 13th and ended on the 15th. In the next two days, the CME
impact triggered a geomagnetic storm at G1 and G2 levels. In doing
so, the attenuation in the polar cap - PCA - increased
significantly.

"Geomagnetic observatories recorded a high K index value of 6 on 15
March at 2322 UTC. Note: this CME was ejected into space by the
eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun almost 4 days earlier.

"Shortwave propagation conditions were above average until 14 March
and deteriorated significantly on 15 March. However, due to
sufficiently high solar activity there was an improvement from 16
March onwards."

KM0T wrote:

"Finally got VP8 on 6M - Wednesday March 15.

"Been getting at least one and maybe two decodes from VP8NO and
VP8LP almost every day over the last week, but not enough to work,
seems always east coast, SE and Texas, some 6 land.

"Today, waiting in the wings, decoded a VP8 around 1700 UTC, kept
the beam that way and VP8LP came in at 1856 with -04 sigs.  I got a
-20 report. I missed his initial CQ at 1854 which was +18!  He
dropped down to -15 right after I worked him and then was gone. He
was in from 1854 to 1858, 4-minute window. Then one more single
decode him calling CQ at 1900 at -10, then gone.

"Anyway, it was short lived, then a few minutes later at 1909 UTC
VP8NO came in with +4 to -10 sigs till about 1918 UTC. I apparently
got his attention as Greg, W0LGQ in Council Bluffs EN21, south of me
told me on the phone that VP8NO was calling me back with a -12
report for a number of sequences, but I was getting no decodes by
then from him.

"Greg indicated as we compared notes, that WSJT FT8 signal reports
from VP8NO were consistently +10 dB better at EN21 then EN13 - 167
miles as the crow flies.  We both run 6 over 6 so it's somewhat a
good comparison.

"Definitely short lived F2.  From here, seems that TEP always ends
up dropping off mid country LU or CE, CX.  Never that far south to
VP8.

"Well, now that I look at the DX Maps snapshot, it appears there may
have been an Es to TEP link on my side."

Tony, WA4JQS sent a message about working some New Zealand stations on 29.6 MHz FM.

"Rich, N8UX and I have talked about this ever since FT8 came out. We
are seeing a lot of skewed path QSOs over the past few years. Today
the SFI was 157. I am thinking we have some prop paths or types we
did not know about until FT8. Of course, I could be wrong, but I
have seen some really strange paths the past few years with FT8. I
listened for 10 mins after I signed with the ZL2, and I was the only
one to hear and work him other than the VK3 and they were having
trouble getting the calls correct. While I had a pipeline, into the
South Island but then I find it strange that I heard no other VK or
ZL."

WB6MPH sent this very interesting link, providing an animated visual
rendering of predicted propagation:

https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/[2]

He also is interested in possible effects of planetary positions on
the Sun. Years ago I heard about J.H. Nelson of RCA and his work on
this subject, but thought that this article showed his conclusions
were affected by statistical artifacts, as outlined here:

https://bit.ly/42mbEtg[3]

Greg Glenn sent this:

"Check out Frank Stefani's work.  He is one of many who I read up
on. Stefani was a peer reviewer on my paper.

"https://www.hzdr.de/db/Cms?pOid=63352&pNid=0&pLang=en[4]

"Recent Stefani technical paper:

"https://bit.ly/3ZUXm18[5]

"Basically, Stefani suggests that even a very small gravitational
force exerted by the planets on the Sun can have an effect through
billions of years of resonance.

"I personally think that both gravitational, as well as
electromagnetic forces are at play.  It's a solar 'system' and there
are multiple forces transferred between the orbiting planets and the
Sun.

"I write, along with Astronomer Gerald Pease, about the
gravitational force exerted by transfer of angular momentum here:

"https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03553[6]

"I then wrote about the possible Electromagnetic Connections here:

"https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.10574[7]

"A prediction I made that came about:

"https://bit.ly/42kvVzp[8]

"Thanks, Greg!"

Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/gjrvLY-RU5Q
[9]
Solar explosions:

https://bit.ly/3liDO85[10]

From news in India:

https://bit.ly/3JMJHnu[11]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12]. When reporting observations, don't forget to
tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[16] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[17] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15, 2023 were 155, 135, 126,
135, 87, 97, and 96, with a mean of 118.7. 10.7 cm flux was 178.8,
171.2, 157.4, 150, 143.3, 138.5, and 135.7, with a mean of 153.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 11, 7, 8, 3, 17, and 29, with
a mean of 13.1. Middle latitude A index was 14, 10, 5, 6, 2, 12, and
19, with a mean of 9.9.

 


[1] https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
[2] https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
[3] https://bit.ly/42mbEtg
[4] https://www.hzdr.de/db/Cms?pOid=63352&pNid=0&pLang=en
[5] https://bit.ly/3ZUXm18
[6] https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03553
[7] https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.10574
[8] https://bit.ly/42kvVzp
[9] https://youtu.be/gjrvLY-RU5Q
[10] https://bit.ly/3liDO85
[11] https://bit.ly/3JMJHnu
[12] k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[17] http://k9la.us/
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/24/2023

Sunspot numbers were lower again this week, with the average
declining from 143.6 two weeks ago to 118.7 last week and now 68
this week. Average daily solar flux sank 8 points from 153.6 last
week to 145.6.

Six new sunspot groups emerged over the week, one on March 17,
another March 18, three more on March 19, one more on March 21 and
another on March 22.

Predicted solar flux is 150, 145 and 145 on March 24-26, 150 on
March 27-28, 145 and 150 on March 29-30, 138 on March 31 through
April 1, then 136, 136 and 134 on April 2-4, 132 on April 5-7, 130
on April 8-9, then 132, 135, 138, and 140 on April 10-13, 142 on
April 14-15, 143 on April 16, 140 on April 17-18, 142 on April
19-21, and 144 on April 22, 146 on April 23-24, 142 and 140 on April
25-26, 138 on April 27-28, and 136 on April 29-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 35, 30, 20, 15 and 10 on March 24-28,
8 on March 29-30, then 18, 12, 12, 10 and 8 on March 31 through
April 5, 5 on April 6-9, then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April 10-13, 8 on
April 14-15, then 12, 10, 5 and 5 on April 16-19, then geomagnetic
unrest returns with 10, 36, 20, 10, 8 and 5 April 20-25, then 20,
18, 12, 12 and 10 on April 26-30.

On Thursday, Spaceweather.com reported, "The forecast did not call
for this. During the early hours of March 23rd, a crack opened in
Earth's magnetic field, and stayed open for more than 8 hours. Solar
wind poured through the gap to fuel a strong G3-class geomagnetic
storm."

I watch this site frequently looking for disturbances when
propagation seems odd:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[1]

On Thursday it showed estimated planetary K index at 7, then
dipping, and at 2100 UTC above 7. I noticed some very odd
propagation. At 1900 UTC I called CQ on 10 meter FT8, and
pskreporter.info showed I was only being heard in a small area in
east Texas. Stations were concentrated between 1739 and 1892 miles
in an area between Houston, San Antonio, Killeen and Nacogdoches.
That was it! Heard nowhere else. I was running low power, using a
simple end-fed one wavelength wire that is mostly indoors.

Over the next half hour coverage extended east to Louisiana, then
Alabama, then Georgia and South Caroline.

At 1950 UTC I went to 15 meters, and noticed a similar oddity, this
time with stations in an arc between 1510-2680 miles, bordered by
N1AC in Florida, NT5EE in Texas, KI5WKB in Oklahoma and a station in
North Carolina.

A check again at 0050 UTC last night on 15 meter FT8 and
pskreporter.info[2] showed for over and hour the only stations I was
receiving were two Cubans, and the only stations hearing me were in
an arc from Arizona to Alabama.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 23, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"If we were to assess solar activity in the last seven days by the
number and size of sunspots, or by the number of energetic flares,
it would not seem significant. Yet it was, but we only know that
because of satellite observations. For example, NASA's SDO
observatory recorded a dark plasma eruption at 0630 UTC on 17 March.

"The speed of the solar wind began to increase on 21 March. Far more
noticeable was a large coronal hole in the southern hemisphere of
the Sun near the central meridian. The assumption of a strong solar
plasma flow from its borders pointed to a probable disturbance on
March 24.

"But the flow was faster. We saw a really strong geomagnetic storm a
day earlier, on March 23. During the morning hours, the
concentration of free particles around the Earth began to rise
rapidly, as a reliable precursor of the coming storm. The
geomagnetic disturbance reached a planetary K index of 7 in the
afternoon, so its intensity was rated G3.

"Earth's ionosphere responded to the storm with an increase in MUF
during 23 March. Since the disturbance should continue, albeit with
less intensity, we expect initially below-average shortwave
propagation conditions and then a slow return to average."

Another great video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/bG0zCbXukm4[3]

This weekend is the CQ World-Wide SSB WPX Contest. See
https://cqwpx.com[4] for info and rules. This is a big, fun contest in
which callsign prefixes are the multiplier.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for March 16 through 22, 2023 were 84, 58, 35, 73,
75, 70, and 81, with a mean of 68. 10.7 cm flux was 135.4, 134.2,
140.3, 142.7, 156.1, 151.6, and 158.9, with a mean of 145.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 7, 8, 10, 13, 8, and 17, with
a mean of 10.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 7, 6, 8, 10, 8, and
14, with a mean of 8.4.

 


[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
[2] http://pskreporter.info
[3] https://youtu.be/bG0zCbXukm4
[4] https://cqwpx.com
[5] k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

03/31/2023

Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number
rose from 68 to 112.6, and average daily solar flux changed from
145.6 to 156.1.

A new sunspot group emerged on March 24, two more on March 26 and
27, and three on March 29.

Due to solar wind and a geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of
the reporting week, average daily planetary A index increased from
10.6 to 23.3, while average middle latitude A index went from 8.4 to
13.7. Many reports of aurora came in this week, some down to lower
latitudes in North America.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on March 31, 130 on April 1-6, 132 on
April 7-8, then 130, 132, 135 and 135 on April 9-12, then 140, 145
and 148 on April 13-15, then 150, 150, 155, 155 and 158 on April
16-20, 160 on April 21-23, then 155, 145 and 145 on April 24-26, and
135 on April 27 through May 1, then 132 on May 2-5, then 130, 132,
135 and 135 on May 6-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 16, 12, 10 and 8 on March 31
through April 4, then 5 on April 5-9, then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April
10-13, 8 on April 14-15, then 12, 20, 15 and 5 on April 16-19, then
20, 15 and 10 on April 20-22, 8 on April 23-24, 5 on April 25-26,
then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 27-30, and 5 on May 1-6, then 15, 12
and 8 on May 7-9.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 30, 2023 from OK1HH.

"The strong geomagnetic storm on 23-24 March was not expected.
Moreover, it was classified as a G4, making it the most intense in
almost 6 years. The source of the solar wind was not identified with
certainty, but a large coronal hole in the south, near the central
meridian, could not be missed.

"As a consequence of the disturbance, the ionosphere first
experienced a rise in the critical frequencies of the F2 layer on 23
March, followed by a significant drop on 24-25 March. Their normal
values started to be registered again only after 26 March.

"Energetic flares are a reliable indicator of the increase in solar
activity. On March 29, the seventh X-class flare of the year was
registered. Yet a total of seven were registered in 2022 and only
two in 2021.

"Most of the sunspots are now on the western half of the solar disk.
As they gradually set, total solar activity will first decrease over
the next week before rising again."

Here are articles about solar activity as an existential threat:

https://bit.ly/3M28RQv[1]

https://bit.ly/42W7xo4[2]

https://bit.ly/40Qf6Lc[3]

Nice sunspot video, before the aurora:

https://bit.ly/3K2alHX[4]

AA7FV wrote on March 25:

"There was a 6-meter opening from Arizona to VK on March 24.  I
received VK7HH in Tasmania at 2028 UTC on WSPR; he was using just
0.2 watts (200 mW)."

VK7HH responded:

"Yes, that WSPR spot was from my remote station running 200 mW from
a Zacktek WSPR TX into a 1/2 wave vertical antenna. HASL 931m."

AA7FV wrote:

"For reference, my 50 MHz antenna is a Cushcraft 1/2-wave vertical,
the Ringo AR6, with its base at about 10 feet above ground. The
location here is 870m asl but I'm in the valley, just outside
Tucson. The receiver is an ancient Icom PCR1000, but with a preamp.
I monitor 6m 24/7, but rarely hear any signals at all, and when I do
hear something it's usually from someone else in Arizona."

On March 25, Jon, N0JK wrote:

"Worked VP8NO in GD18 today on 6 Meter FT8 at 1905 UTC.  de N0JK
EM28 in Kansas."

Jon was using a portable 2 element Yagi and running 50 watts.

Here is an article about a "Hole" in the Sun:

https://www.space.com/solar-flare-coronal-hole-space-weather[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for March 23 through 29, 2023 were 73, 108, 105,
125, 128, 114, and 135, with a mean of 112.6. 10.7 cm flux was 151,
157.5, 160.3, 159.4, 158.2, 158.7, and 147.8, with a mean of 156.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 60, 66, 15, 8, 3, 5, and 6, with
a mean of 23.3. Middle latitude A index was 28, 40, 12, 6, 2, 4, and
4, with a mean of 13.7.

 


[1] https://bit.ly/3M28RQv
[2] https://bit.ly/42W7xo4
[3] https://bit.ly/40Qf6Lc
[4] https://bit.ly/3K2alHX
[5] https://www.space.com/solar-flare-coronal-hole-space-weather
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/07/2023

 Average solar flux and sunspot numbers were way down this week. Sunspot numbers were down by half, from 112.6 last week to 53.4.  Average daily solar flux declined from 156.1 to 132.5. 

Geomagnetic indicators were lower too.  Average daily planetary A index from 23.3 last week to 15 in this bulletin, and average daily middle latitude A index from 13.7 to 11.7.

The April 1 middle latitude A index of 11 is my guess.  The middle latitude A index for April 1 was not available.

Predicted solar flux is 140 on April 7 and 8, 135 on April 9 to 11, 140, 145 and 130 on on April 12 to 14, 130 on April 14, 135 on April 15 to 17, 140 on April 18 to 20, 135 on April 21 to 23, then 130, 125 and 120 on April 24 to 26, 115 on April 27 to 29, 125 on April 30, 120 on May 1 and 2, 115 on May 3 and 4, then 110 on May 5 to 7, and 115, 120, 125 and 130 on May 8 to 11, then 135 on May 12 to 14, and 140 on May 15 to 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 7 to 10, then 8, 8 and 5 on April 11 to 13, 8 on April 14 and 15, then 12, 10 and 15 on April 16 to 18, then 5, 20, 15 and 10 on April 19 to 22, 5 on April 23 to 25, then 15 and 18 on April 26 and 27, 15 on April 28 and 29, 8 on April 30, 10 on May 1 and 2, 8 on May 3, then 5 on May 4 to 6, then 12, 10, 8 and 5 on May 7 to 10, 8 on May 11 and 12, then 10, 12, 15, 5 and 20 on May 13 to 17.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- April 6, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"On March 29, another solar flare of category X1.2 was observed.  It came from the AR3256 sunspot group near the southwestern limb of the Sun.

This year, in just three months, we've already seen seven X-class flares, the same as all of last year.  There are still about two years to go before the cycle peak.

On the morning of March 31, a solar wind stream hit Earth, triggering a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm.  A relatively quiet weekend followed.

Then new sunspot group AR3270 emerged in the southern part of the solar disk.  It grew rapidly, its two dark cores, larger than Earth, indicating an unstable magnetic field.  If they merge an eruption would likely follow.  It would probably be a geoeffective eruption because the sunspot was directly opposite the Earth.

After the AR3270 sunspot group dips behind the southwestern limb of the solar disk this weekend, there should be a temporary drop in overall solar activity, accompanied by a string of geomagnetically quieter days.

As the irregular occurrence of higher geomagnetic activity results in irregular changes in shortwave propagation conditions, the subsequent evolution should be more regular and predictable."

This video from Tamitha Skov came out right after last week's bulletin:

https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88[1]

More sun fun:  

https://youtu.be/VWhhSWjDJtw[2]  

https://bit.ly/41aolq2[3]  

Don't worry:  

https://bit.ly/3zCtg74[4]

On April 5 from 1723 to 1746 UTC, Tom, WA1LBK in Fall River, Massachusetts copied HC1MD/2 in Ecuador on 6 meter FT8.  Check HC1MD on QRZ.com for some beautiful photos by Rick, NE8Z.

https://bit.ly/3zBm5wa[5]  

This weekend is the CW portion of the Japan International DX Contest.

See http://jidx.org/[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7] .  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] .  For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] .  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]  

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 30 through April 5, 2023 were 99, 61, 23, 54, 56, 44, and 37, with a mean of 53.4.  10.7 cm flux was 140.3, 129.3, 125.3, 126.9, 133.6, 135.7, and 136.6, with a mean of 132.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 21, 13, 15, 15, 13, and 11, with a mean of 15.  Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 11, 13, 11, 10, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.


[1] https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88
[2] https://youtu.be/VWhhSWjDJtw
[3] https://bit.ly/41aolq2
[4] https://bit.ly/3zCtg74
[5] https://bit.ly/3zBm5wa
[6] http://jidx.org/
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/14/2023

Solar activity was up for this reporting week, April 6-12.

Seven new sunspot groups appeared, one on April 6, another on April
9, two more on April 10, another on April 11, and two more on April
12. Then on Thursday, April 13, three new sunspot groups emerged.
The sunspot number rose to 154, the highest value in the past month.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 53.4 to 70.6, and average
daily solar flux increased from 132.5 to 141.

On Thursday, the noon solar flux reading was 159.5 and was well
above the average for the previous seven days, perhaps indicating an
upward trend.

Geomagnetic conditions were calm, with average daily planetary A
index dropping from 15 to 7.6, and the middle latitude average from
11.7 to 6.4.
 
Predicted solar flux was 155 and 160 on April 13-14, and 165 on
April 15-16.

The Thursday prediction was well above that.

Predicted solar flux is 168 on April 14-16, 165 and 160 on April
17-18, 155 on April 19-22, 158 on April 23, 155 on April 24-25, then
152, 148, 145 and 142 on April 26-29, 140 on April 30 and May 1, 142
and 140 on May 2-3, 135 on May 4-5, then 130, 140, 145, 150, 152,
155 and 158 on May 6-12, then 160 on May 13-15, and 150 and 152 on
May 16-17, 155 on May 18-19, then 158, 155 and 155 on May 20-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 10 and 8 on April 14-17, 5 on
April 18-20, then 8 and 10 on April 21-22, 5 on April 23-25, then 15
and 18 on April 26-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2,
8 on May 3-4, 5 on May 5-6, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 7-9, and 5 on
May 10-13, then 10, 15 and 5 on May 14-16, 20, 15 and 10 on May
17-19, and 5 on May 20-23.

Spaceweather.com[1] released this news on Wednesday:

"Evidence is mounting that Solar Cycle 25 might peak much earlier
than expected. New research by a leading group of solar physicists
predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024 with a
peak that could be twice as strong as the previous solar cycle."

Look in the Spaceweather archive for April 12-13 to read more.  It
is all explained in this scientific paper:

https://bit.ly/41gZnW4[2]

I noticed some very odd 10 meter propagation at 2000 UTC on April
11. Running FT8 and a one wavelength end fed wire at my home in
Seattle, the only stations that heard me according to
pskreporter.info were one in New Zealand, another in Hawaii, and in
North America, only 5 stations (NK5B, AD4ES, K4RMM, KB4FB and AA4CB)
in Florida, all within a 200 mile strip from 2,512 to 2,712 miles
from me. Checking again at 2015 UTC, it was still the same. It
looked quite dramatic on the pskreporter.info map.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 13, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Relatively frequent C-class solar flares, sporadic M-class flares
in one or two sunspot groups, and the appearance of two or three
relatively small coronal holes - that's how the Sun looked between
April 6 and 13.

"The solar wind speed dropped to 340 km/s by April 9, rose
significantly to 550 km/s on April 10, and then slowly dropped
again. The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled on April 10, then
mostly calm on the other days.

"MUF values were slightly higher on 10 April. This was followed by
11 April with irregular daily MUF and irregular occurrences of
attenuation. Since 12 April onward there was a transition to a
regular daily course of ionospheric parameters.

"Now we can expect higher solar activity in the southern hemisphere.
The rise should continue in the coming days at first. A slight
decrease will follow after the weekend.

"A slight increase in geomagnetic activity with consequent
fluctuations in shortwave propagation conditions can be expected
rather since the middle of next week."

Here is a video about the Termination Event:

https://youtu.be/wcJdNBow_5s[3]

A story on NASA using AI to predict geomagnetic storms:

https://bit.ly/3mws16y[4]

Here is a story about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/3UCz8ar[5]

Mike Mason, WB4MM in Daytona Beach, Florida wrote:

"On April 9 2023 FT8 mode 12 meters beginning at 2254 UTC and ending
at 2328 UTC I worked 12 JA stations plus 2 South Korean stations in
a row. I was calling CQ AS WB4MM EL99.

"My station has 100 watts to an attic 15M dipole. I believe the SFI
at the time was 135. Not sure of the type of prop. This occurred
within an hour of sunset at my QTH."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[7] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[9] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for April 6 through 12, 2023 were 33, 38, 49, 52,
92, 103, and 127, with a mean of 70.6. 10.7 cm flux was 137.1,
136.3, 135.9, 140.3, 139.8, 143.4, and 154, with a mean of 141.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 6, 6, 14, 6, and 4, with a
mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 5, 11, 6, and 4,
with a mean of 6.4.
 


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/41gZnW4
[3] https://youtu.be/wcJdNBow_5s
[4] https://bit.ly/3mws16y
[5] https://bit.ly/3UCz8ar
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

04/21/2023

Again this week sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher than the
week before.

Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled, from 70.6 to 146.9,
and average daily solar flux increased from 141 to 164.5. Both
figures represent a substantial increase in solar activity.

Planetary A index averages went from 7.6 to 8.1, while middle
latitude A index advanced from 6.4 to 7.3.

Three new sunspot groups emerged on April 13, one more on April 16,
and another on April 17.

Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks is 145, 140 and 135 on
April 21-23, 130 on April 24-25, 125 on April 26-27, 160 on April
28-29, 165 on April 30, 172 on May 1-3, 170 on May 4, 172 on May
5-7, 178 on May 8, 182 on May 9-12, then 175, 178 and 170 on May
13-15, 168 on May 16-17, 175 on May 18, then 172 on May 19-21, then
168 and 162 on May 22-23, 160 on May 24-26, 165 on May 27, and 172
on May 28-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 16, 12 and 8 on April 21-24, 5 on
April 25-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2, 8 on May
3-4, 5 on May 5-6, 12 on May 7, 5 on May 8-10, then 8 on May 11-12,
5 on May 13-18, then 10, 8, 5 and 5 on May 19-22, 15 and 18 on May
23-24, 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

"Of the fifteen sunspot groups observed over the past week, AR3272
and AR3282 were the source of most of the flares. Both had a
beta-gamma magnitude configuration. 61 C-class flares and 4 M-class
flares were observed.

"The partial halo CMEs on 15 and 16 April were the source of
particles that reached Earth on 18 April, when the solar wind speed
increased abruptly at 1308 UTC and a geomagnetic disturbance
developed.

"A positive phase of the ionospheric disturbance was recorded on the
afternoon of 18 April, followed by a negative phase on 19 April.
This was followed on 20 April with a significant increase in f0F2
and improved shortwave propagation conditions before noon UTC.

"The outlook looks promising for the first half of May, when solar
activity should increase further."

Dan Handa, W7WA commented on the news last week about the current
solar cycle reaching a peak earlier than predicted, perhaps by the
end of this year.

I told him I hoped it would not peak early, because I wanted to see
several more years of increasing activity.

Dan sent a very detailed graph of Solar Cycle 19 from 1954 to 1966,
and wrote: "I have read, and more than once, a slow rise means a low
sunspot max. The previous Solar Cycle 24 took five years to reach a
relatively low maximum. A rapid increase can mean a high sunspot
maximum. The granddaddy of our lifetime, Solar Cycle 19 peaked in
three years!"

I did not know this.

In a subsequent message, Dan further commented:

"There was a lot of short term variation in the Solar Cycle 19
sunspot number, just like we're seeing now. From the graph the
timing of the Solar Cycle 19 peak can be defined three different
ways: the daily peak, the smoothed monthly peak or the smoothed
yearly peak, take your pick."

Another Solar Cycle 19? Many hams have dreamed of this for the past
six decades.

Dale, WB6MMQ reported that the solar images in the ARRL Letter with
a preview of our Friday bulletin show a blank Sun. I wasn't sure
what he was talking about, but now I realize this must be a stock
image (not from me!) used in the Letter.

I sent Dale links to some recent images from Spaceweather.com[1]:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20apr23/hmi1898.gif[2]

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/19apr23/hmi1898.gif[3]

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/18apr23/hmi1898.gif[4]

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17apr23/hmi1898.gif[5]

I hope this clears up the confusion.

An odd correlation between an ancient epidemic and solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3Lsqfxf[6]

A story about a possible early Solar peak:

https://www.space.com/sun-solar-maximum-may-arrive-early[7]

A story about possible M-class solar flares:

https://bit.ly/3KVc1n1[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for April 13 through 19, 2023 were 154, 153, 151,
155, 162, 140, and 113, with a mean of 146.9. 10.7 cm flux was
159.5, 171.3, 175.8, 177.8, 166.6, 153.2, and 147, with a mean of
164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 9, 4, 6, 13, and 12,
with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 10, 8, 4, 6, 9,
and 9, with a mean of 7.3.
 


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20apr23/hmi1898.gif
[3] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/19apr23/hmi1898.gif
[4] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/18apr23/hmi1898.gif
[5] https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17apr23/hmi1898.gif
[6] https://bit.ly/3Lsqfxf
[7] https://www.space.com/sun-solar-maximum-may-arrive-early
[8] https://bit.ly/3KVc1n1
[9] k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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