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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0509

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 23 22:50:05 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 232250
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232249=20
    TXZ000-240045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0509
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0549 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of Northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132...

    Valid 232249Z - 240045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe storm risk should increase across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 132 during the next few hours. Isolated large
    hail (some possibly up to 2.5 inches) and severe gusts to 70 mph are
    the main concerns.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of semi-discrete thunderstorms have developed
    along a cold front draped across The Rolling Plains this afternoon,
    where surface convergence is maximized. So far, these storms have
    struggled to maintain organization and intensity as they attempt to
    get off the boundary. As of 2240Z, these storms are now tracking east-southeastward off the boundary, into an environment with richer boundary-layer moisture (upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints) beneath
    steep midlevel lapse rates. Here, a long/mostly straight hodograph (characterized by 30-40 kt of effective shear) should support
    supercells (with a tendency for splitting). Weak large-scale ascent
    and warm/dry air at the base of the EML have limited storm
    intensity/sustenance so far. However, continued storm splits and
    related merging may allow for a larger storm structure or two to
    evolve with time. If this convective evolution can occur, isolated
    large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts up to 70
    mph will be an increasing concern during the next few hours.

    ..Weinman.. 04/23/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5C8zwpCUdfPfF8-yhF4vOZ0zKUfi8Be0wCZqa-QiVrP1PnnfvSyMc_IMONhHZ2QfJXA7c2SHX= lAE1sUh2zmhU3HyDjM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32910124 33020136 33230134 33370114 33480090 33550058
    33539989 33409949 33159920 32729914 32369937 32179992
    32210038 32300061 32710100 32910124=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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