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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2265

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 13 01:52:57 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 130152
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130152=20
    NYZ000-130545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2265
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0752 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

    Areas affected...portions of western NY State and Lake Erie Coast

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 130152Z - 130545Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy lake-effect snow is likely to continue for a few
    more hours across parts of western NY downstream from lake Erie. The
    heaviest snow rates ~ 2-3 in/hr are expected before 4z before the
    band begins to weaken and shift south.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0145Z, composite radar imagery shows a
    well-developed band of heavy lake-effect snow ongoing across
    portions of western NY downstream from Lake Erie. After slight
    weakening earlier this afternoon, a notable uptick in reflectivity
    and band organization has been noted this evening. The axis of
    heaviest snow has shifted north with rates of 1-3 in/hr moving into
    the southern suburbs of BUF. This should continue for a a few more
    hours this evening as flow in the lowest 2-3 km remains
    west/southwesterly as observed from the 00Z KBUF RAOB. Peak snowfall
    rates of 2-3 in/hr are likely in the next 1-2 hours while low-level
    flow is best aligned with the lake fetch and remains fairly strong.

    Snowfall rates will begin to decrease later this evening and
    overnight as the stronger westerly flow weakens with the departing
    upper cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, low-level
    winds are also expected to veer to northwesterly, supporting a
    southward shift in the band as it weakens. While lake-effect snow
    showers are likely to continue through the overnight, snowfall rates
    should decrease below 1 in/hr after 6-8z.

    ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9upM3Jyt2A_OUFiEYGP71dsoJzPJWMqv737w6pHArsNBhAt_lbzsxxPFRsAoX_FirkklgGoC3= CTCvsq2h-LrvOLLLKg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...

    LAT...LON 42887906 42977873 42967841 42857834 42767830 42457896
    42347938 42327960 42327968 42657953 42887906=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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