ACUS11 KWNS 152318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152318=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-160215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...southern Mississippi into central and southern
Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 46...

Valid 152318Z - 160215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 46 continues.

SUMMARY...The environment remains quite favorable for strong
tornadoes, but will depend on storm mode going into the evening and
early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...Supercells moving out of eastern MS have transitioned
into more of a small MCS this evening, from west-central AL into
parts of eastern MS. Farther south, more discrete cell mode was
noted across far southern MS to the LA border.

While storm mode is currently a bit disorganized, shear, moisture
and instability all remain favorable for conditionally strong
tornadoes at any point this evening and through early morning. In
addition, dewpoints and thus instability will also increase across
the remainder of eastern AL and toward GA late tonight as the
low-level jet persists. It is possible that reorganization may take
place later this evening as we transition out of the daytime/diurnal
regime. Any robust, discrete cells will have a high conditional risk
of being tornadic supercells. Any linear structures may still
produce tornadoes and swaths of damaging wind as well as effective
SRH remains at or above 500 m2/s2.

..Jewell.. 03/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9oA7zDV38ec5pK5QYaG1R995CPn6nXpSn8xBYEYCfUPFiI197hghIyzoMXcDZUAcBBecevUUF= U4y72zUWiRZYzvFJNc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30318979 30628951 31458910 31998846 32308814 32658781
32878771 33188745 33408693 33428620 33228596 32858582
32268597 31668640 31168676 30288732 30068936 30318979=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)