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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0215

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 16 00:03:20 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 160002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160002=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-160200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0215
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0702 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

    Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into western Georgia and parts of
    the Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 160002Z - 160200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Downstream watch issuance across western Georgia, eastern
    and southeast Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle is
    expected before 01 UTC as severe storms spread east.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show the most intense/organized
    convection across central AL extending southwestward into far
    southeast MS. Per recent MCD #213, the expectation is that this
    activity will continue to pose a severe wind and tornado risk
    heading into the late evening hours as it spreads east/northeast.
    Recent HRRR-based SSCRAM and WoFS guidance suggest that areas of
    eastern AL will see an uptick in the severe threat by 01-03 UTC with
    western GA and parts of the FL Panhandle between 02-05 UTC. These
    solutions also show a convective environment characterized by STP
    values between 2-4 will spread east with time and will continue to
    support the potential for long-track/significant tornadoes, as well
    as damaging/severe wind gusts (possibly as high as 60-70 mph). Watch
    issuance will likely be needed before 01 UTC to address this
    potential and will replace WW 46.

    ..Moore/Bunting.. 03/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!772ArzHN3kglM1Bteo3nFUMlnSZKgFzSrl8knO3NoNAhYLxOAwvUuAT7MoDbL6RQeVJKPqs0S= EoBJtrsp5fgLKdkYpY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

    LAT...LON 34088367 33678355 33148359 32438373 31658400 31238418
    30748454 30378489 30108516 29968534 29928558 30028580
    30178592 30238609 30298633 30318658 30278684 30288700
    30308713 30358741 30518757 30798758 31338745 32028710
    32818669 33388641 33878616 34188598 34428558 34508449
    34408400 34088367=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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