756
AXNT20 KNHC 160957
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pres system is expected to
develop in the central Atlantic tonight. As the system
intensifies, gale- force winds are expected by this evening across
the northern semicircle of the low, mainly N of 25N between 45W
and 55W. Rough to very rough seas are forecast with these winds.
The low will move NW through mid-week while weakening.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N15W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N22W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection within 300 nm on either
side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters, analyzed from
30N88W to 21N97W. Recent satellite derived wind data confirm the
presence of fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front.
Combined seas are estimated to be 8 to 11 ft across the east-central
Gulf. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are
noted in the wake of the front. Scattered thunderstorms ahead of
the front are noted N of 27N and E of 87W.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move southeast
and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche by
this morning, and move E of the Gulf tonight. Fresh to strong
southerly winds ahead of the front will prevail today across the
eastern Gulf waters, then fresh to strong northerly winds behind
the front will develop today though Mon night. Looking ahead, high
pressure will settle over the basin Mon through mid week. As the
high pressure moves toward N Florida fresh to strong southerly
return flow will set-up over the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue.
Looking ahead, another cold front is slated to enter the Gulf
region by mid-week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends across the Bahamas and Cuba into the NW
Caribbean, while low pressure dominates most of the Gulf of
Mexico. This pattern is allowing for fresh to strong SE to S
winds over the the NW Caribbean, particularly N of 15N and W of
83W, including the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within
these winds. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed per
scatterometer data in the Windward Passage as well as over the
south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to
moderate trade winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are
3 to 5 ft with the strongest winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong southerly winds over the NW
Caribbean will diminish later today as the cold front currently
moving across the Gulf of Mexico reaches the Yucatan Channel by
tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will
follow the front forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras by Mon night, and from the Windward Passage to near
Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua on Tue before dissipating Tue night
into Wed. High pressure over the central Atlantic combined with
the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to fresh to strong
speeds at night offshore Colombia through early this week.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Windward
Passage and south of the Dominican Republic today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic associated
with a developing low pressure. Refer to the Special Features
section for more details.

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N21W and
continues southwestward to near 22N40W, where it transitions into
a stationary front that extends to 22N61W. Farther north, 1032 mb
high pressure centered near 36N47W dominates the western
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the
frontal boundary supports an area of fresh to strong E winds N of
the stationary front between 40W and 70W, where seas are in the 8
to 11 ft range. Fresh NE to E winds and large northerly swell of
8 to 14 ft is noted elsewhere north of the front. Moderate winds
and 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. A short wave trough in the
mid/upper levels is interacting with the frontal boundary to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly N of 20N
between 44W and 56W.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb high pressure center is
analyzed at 27N17W, extending a weak ridge across much of the
remaining subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Moderate trade winds
and moderate seas are noted across the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a developing low pressure will
support gale-force winds east of 55W by tonight. These conditions
will likely last through Mon night, then diminishing to fresh to
strong winds through Tue morning. This pattern will also support
rough to very seas east of 70W through mid week. Farther west, a
strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast tonight
preceded and followed by fresh to near-gale force winds and rough
seas. The front will reach from 31N68W to the Turks and Caicos
and eastern Cuba Tue morning, and from Bermuda to Puerto Rico Wed
morning.

$$
ERA
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835
AXNT20 KNHC 181039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Mar 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1035 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends 31N71W to E Cuba. A
low pressure system is forecast to develop along this front tonight,
which will support the development of gale-force winds and very
rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through Wed.
Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the
region through Thu night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone
near 07.5N12.5W and continues southwestward to 04N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N18W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02S45W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04N and west of 15W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh
northerly winds east of 87W and seas of 6-11 ft. An altimeter pass
from a few hours ago showed seas to 11 ft in the Loop Current,
west of the Dry Tortugas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas are found west of 94W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh N winds and rough seas in the SE Gulf will
continue to diminish today. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure
gradient in the western half of the basin will result in fresh to
strong S winds today and tonight ahead of the next cold front
forecast to come off the coast of Texas Wed morning. The front
will reach from southern Alabama to Veracruz Wed night, from Cape
Coral to the Yucatan Peninsula Thu afternoon, and exit the basin
Thu night into Fri. The front will be followed by fresh to strong
N winds and rough seas. Winds may approach gale force Thu
afternoon off Veracruz. Winds and seas will diminish across the
basin on Fri morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from SE Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are behind the front
spilling in through the Yucatan Channel. A few showers are noted
near the boundary. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and
moderate seas are noted in the south-central Caribbean. In the
remainder of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas follow a
cold front that extends from SE Cuba to Cabo Gracias a Dios,
Honduras. The weakening frontal boundary will continue eastward
before dissipating tonight into Wed. Building high pressure in the
wake of the front N of the area will lead to the development of
pulsing fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and the
Windward Passage late today through Wed evening. In the central
and portions of the SW Caribbean, fresh to strong NE-E winds will
prevail through early next week. High pressure will build near the
Bahamas over the weekend and trade winds will increase across the
region, with near gale-force winds developing offshore Colombia.
Rough to very rough seas will build off Colombia and into the SW
Caribbean Wed night into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1007 mb low pressure is located near 25N58W. Strong to
near gale-force E-SE winds are occurring north of 26N and between
43W and 61W. Rough to very rough seas are found in the area
described. The center is devoid of deep convection but scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident north of 20N and
between 43W and 52W. Additional development of this low is not
expected as it moves northwestward into an environment of strong
upper-level winds and dry air on Tuesday. A surface trough extends
from the low center to the northern Leeward Islands.

As previously mentioned, cold front extends 31N71W to SE Cuba.
Scattered showers are ahead of the front but mainly N of 24N.
Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted in the wake of the front.
Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the front with seas of 8 to 11
ft. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are across the waters
from 12N to 24N between the coast of Africa and 35W, including
through the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
across the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Rough to very
rough seas in long period NW swell are affecting the Madeira and
Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas associated with the
aforementioned low pressure will persist in the northern
semicircle as the low moves north and exits the forecast waters by
Wed morning. Strong to near gale-force winds will precede and
continue to follow a cold front that extends from 31N71W to E
Cuba. The front will reach from near Bermuda to N Hispaniola this
afternoon, and from 31N60W to Puerto Rico Wed morning. A low
pressure system is forecast to develop along this front tonight,
which will support the development of gale-force winds and very
rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas tonight through Wed
evening. Afterward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across
the region through Thu night. Looking ahead, a third strong front
is forecast to come off the Florida NE coast Thu.

$$
Delgado
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