ACUS11 KWNS 161540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161539=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-161715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...far southeastern Georgia into the northern and
central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...

Valid 161539Z - 161715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 52.
Damaging gusts should be the main threat, though a couple of
tornadoes still cannot be ruled out through at least early
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm clusters and transient supercells
continue to progress across far southeast GA into the northern and
central FL Peninsula, with additional storms over the eastern Gulf
poised to move ashore over the next few hours. These storms are
progressing toward a heated airmass, with surface temperatures
already exceeding 80 F in multiple locales. Given 70+ F surface
dewpoints, 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE is already in place. While strong flow
aloft is contributing to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, the
northward advancement of the upper trough is resulting in deep-layer
ascent and the accompanying low-level jet to drift away from the FL
peninsula. Regional VADs show a slight decreasing trend in low-level
shear. However, these VADs still show adequate hodograph elongation
and curvature near the GA/FL border to support a couple of
tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging gusts should remain the primary
severe threat this afternoon.

..Squitieri.. 03/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7gsSPhobjnjLvsZARNO-dhq1LlpDsH6mkuMuBBgXOARLjqlnor8FGZJUK5trzgWxQtB4qaEJu= ITItaHy3IqNO4F_cDE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 28638324 29368322 30928265 31348230 31518170 31508147
31368138 30468137 29828119 29408125 28838180 28648229
28588279 28638324=20


=3D =3D =3D
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