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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0235

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 16 20:28:17 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 162027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162026=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-162200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0235
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

    Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania...central Maryland...and
    northern Virginia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...

    Valid 162026Z - 162200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.

    SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible through the
    remainder of the afternoon. No watch is expected downstream of watch
    54.

    DISCUSSION...Skies have cleared across northern Virginia into
    southern Pennsylvania over the past few hours which has allowed
    temperatures to increase into the 70s ahead of the line of storms.
    Despite the warming temperatures, instability has had little change
    as the warming has also started to mix out surface dewpoints with
    some sites across northern Virginia now falling into the mid 50s.
    MLCAPE around 250 J/kg should persist ahead of this line of storms
    for the next 1 to 2 hours which may allow for some sporadic damaging
    wind gusts from the more organized cells. In fact, a few weak
    supercell type structures have developed which will locally increase
    the damaging wind/brief tornado threat. Storm motions should keep
    these storms within watch 54 for the awhile longer. Therefore, by
    the time storms move east of the watch, stabilizing effects of
    early-evening transition should limit the surface-based instability.
    Therefore, no watch is anticipated downstream of watch 54 at this
    time.

    ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-V6HiSdGQ5qlJkDtbN_k8YfCFHlrvsauVBFiM-FNqoDAtnu4jgwoCwnn4EMZNJUw8GJvlsnzg= E0UWgcMEqnszvh6cDQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 38267957 39177900 40497778 41277705 41567682 41577623
    41247533 39927597 38567676 37657788 37607878 37717947
    38267957=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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