ACUS11 KWNS 162220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162220=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-170015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...Eastern New York into northeast Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...55...

Valid 162220Z - 170015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54, 55
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds remain possible as a line of
storms moves into eastern New York state and northeast Pennsylvania.
However, this line is expected to gradually weaken through the
evening hours. Watch issuance downstream of WW 55 is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional radars across NY and PA continue to show
strong velocities within/behind a broken line of storms as it moves east/northeast and out of WW 55. This broken line continues to move
out of the axis of sustainable buoyancy, and a downtrend in
lightning counts has been noted over the past hour, indicative of an
overall weakening trend. However, recent GOES imagery and lightning
data have shown occasional transient updraft pulses embedded within
the line, likely where storm-scale dynamic pressure perturbations
are contributing to locally stronger updrafts. Surface observations
within the past hour have measured gusts in the vicinity of these
stronger segments between 40-45 knots, and the KBGM VWP recently
sampled 50 knot winds near 1 km with the passage of the line. The
overall weakening trend is expected to continue as the line migrates
into a more stable air mass so watch issuance is not expected, but
sporadic damaging gusts associated with these transient updrafts
pulses will remain possible in the near term (next 1-2 hours) across
eastern NY and northeast PA.

..Moore.. 03/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5v_VqiivSjp-0oUkHXfwpu4mIU23RmuN1EmXTf2L7BTJZgnE9DUA_ii1N8es9lvLz-HM0CtGz= _gFOn0kdXNvgae8yws$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 41207628 41487615 42087556 42467537 43097510 43537486
43877485 44187489 44547501 44707506 44887501 45017486
44987445 44887404 44567366 44207356 43467352 42837373
42137413 41537460 40977514 40957565 41047602 41207628=20


=3D =3D =3D
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