ACUS11 KWNS 192037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192037=20
INZ000-ILZ000-192230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Areas affected...eastern Illinois into far western Indiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 57...

Valid 192037Z - 192230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development is likely to
continue to increase during the next few hours, including the
potential for supercells with tornadoes across much of east central
Illinois into the Indiana state border vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Aided by stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and
cooling, within the exit region of the intense mid-level jet nosing
through the middle Mississippi Valley, an intensifying and evolving
broken line of thunderstorms appears likely to spread across and
east of the Interstate 55 corridor of central Illinois through
21-22Z. This is where 20Z surface observations indicate that rapid
(2-hourly in excess of 4 mb) surface pressure falls are maximized,
and lower 50s surface dew points are being maintained with perhaps
some further increase ongoing farther east, into the vicinity of the
Indiana state border vicinity.

More discrete thunderstorms are now initiating farther south,
between Taylorville and Salem, which are likely to continue rapidly
moving north-northeastward within 50-60 kt south-southwesterly
deep-layer mean flow. Rapid Refresh forecast soundings continue to
suggest that this will coincide with enlarging clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs near/east of Kankakee, Champaign, Decatur
vicinities, where south to southwesterly flow is forecast to
intensify within the 850-700 mb layer through 22-00Z. And it still
appears the low-level thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to
supercell tornadoes, perhaps including a strong tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 03/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xWbPXa1SeAudbnK3DEoLE_4u325U2zoQae-ePkPjBNsho5dtGCV_iPAY_ZxjaL9IsZ9KVgwZ= QRO9zuYxNzyLENj5Ao$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 41618831 41418744 38798741 38288815 38388861 40008935
41618831=20


=3D =3D =3D
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