ACUS11 KWNS 192334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192334=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-200130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

Areas affected...Western and middle Tennessee into northern
Mississippi and northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192334Z - 200130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected between 7-9 PM CDT
across western Tennessee and northern to central Mississippi with a
downstream risk for severe hail and damaging winds. The risk is
expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery shows gradually deepening cumulus
along and just ahead of a diffuse dryline/Pacific front from western
TN southward into MS. This trend is expected to continue as
mid-level temperatures continue to cool with the eastward
progression of the primary trough axis, resulting in improving
700-500 mb lapse rates that will be more favorable for sustained
convection. This trend is already being observed further north
across the lower OH River Valley, suggesting that thunderstorm
development is becoming more likely for areas further south. Modest
surface moisture (mid 50s dewpoints) will continue to limit overall
buoyancy values (MLCAPE should be maximized around 500-750 J/kg),
but wind fields over the region are supporting elongated hodographs
that will promote organization of the more intense updrafts. Weak
off-boundary storm motions/deep-layer shear vectors suggest that a
combination of semi-discrete cells and clusters is likely later this
evening as storms move into middle TN and northwest AL. Given the
convective environment and trends in latest CAM guidance, a few of
the more intense cells/clusters may pose a severe hail/wind threat
through the late evening.

..Moore/Hart.. 03/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-4a91vl7-33IG3AAb1DpP_azlhUbxXyR-_B-HAE8BaVYLfqA42OZr9F74MBBMTU73ZW48y_R1= P54WLguVSKJ23w7t3Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32909031 35998919 36458887 36538846 36628750 36588700
36448652 36178623 35758610 35048619 34208674 33358759
32638848 32468899 32458937 32478982 32549002 32679022
32909031=20


=3D =3D =3D
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