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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0338

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 1 23:35:22 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 012335
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012334=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-020100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0338
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0634 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

    Areas affected...Far north-central Oklahoma into far south-central
    Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 91...

    Valid 012334Z - 020100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 91 continues.

    SUMMARY...Initial supercells will pose a risk for very large hail
    and locally severe gusts. The tornado threat should gradually
    increase with northeastward extent.

    DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has developed along the
    northwestern edge of the partially modified Gulf moisture (dewpoints
    in the upper 50s to near 60 F). The VNX VWP depicts a long hodograph
    (around 80 kt of 0-6 km shear) with modest low-level clockwise curvature/streamwise vorticity. This will support isolated/discrete (potentially splitting) supercells with a risk of very large hail
    and locally severe gusts initially, given fairly weak large-scale
    forcing for ascent. With time, a strengthening low-level jet will
    yield very large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (effective
    SRH upwards of 600 m2/s2) -- highly supportive of a transition to
    dominant right-moving supercells. While low-level moisture is
    somewhat modest, the aforementioned wind profile and
    discrete/semi-discrete mode would certainly favor an increase in
    tornado potential, some of which may be strong.

    ..Weinman.. 04/01/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-1T0Zly04R6nXUo3eh1dfFnbcJOIuK2R150hOLRrz7JjX4r3If3PqOwdSTxDvw7_RsFa-NFJN= XXWcbPLrbx5qjK_DT4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36369812 36609820 36959810 37299785 37509750 37559685
    37399647 37089631 36739639 36349721 36259777 36369812=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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