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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0343

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 2 01:57:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 020157
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020156=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-020300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0343
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0856 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Northeast Kansas...Southwest Iowa...Northwest Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92...

    Valid 020156Z - 020300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across the eastern portions of the
    central Plains. Hail should be the primary risk.

    DISCUSSION...LLJ is strengthening across eastern OK into eastern KS
    where 1km speeds are now in excess of 50-60kt. Convection has been
    slow to mature along the cold front, but thunderstorms are gradually
    increasing along a zone of low-level confluence from Barton to
    Ottawa County KS. This activity should continue to increase as this
    corridor is shunted southeast into an increasingly moist
    environment.

    A secondary cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is noted across
    the northwestern portion of ww92. This elevated convection will
    shift east into a zone of strong low-level warm advection and its
    longevity appears likely. Overall, a gradual uptick in frontal
    convection, and elevated warm advection storms, will be noted into
    the early-morning hours.

    With time, some southward expansion of the severe thunderstorm watch
    may be warranted.

    ..Darrow.. 04/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8DAS-D0vugL4DSf0QfchBmeGSrdmwS3ekwWlBwTJ49x2eLwtusyQRPO25rwAO_flnMv_1cf7t= 8E-9dNB9uLwvswupHw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

    LAT...LON 38899865 41689747 41699476 38899605 38899865=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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