ACUS11 KWNS 030254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030253=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-030500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...parts of wrn and middle TN...wrn and central
KY...adjacent sern IN...swrn OH

Concerning...Tornado Watch 102...98...

Valid 030253Z - 030500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 102, 98 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for strong, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps
a few tornadoes, appears likely to persist with a line of storms
overspreading the Ohio River vicinity, including the Greater
Louisville into Cincinnati vicinities, through midnight-1 AM EDT.=20
Trends are being monitored for the possibility of additional watches
to the east of Tornado Watches 102 and 103.

DISCUSSION...Northeast of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio
Rivers, through the lower Ohio River vicinity, boundary-layer
instability remains weaker due to more marginal boundary-layer dew
points and weak mid/upper-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings
suggest that CAPE (perhaps on the order of 500-1000 J/kg) may be
largely confined to the 850-500 mb layer, perhaps aided by steeper
lapse rates associated with a remnant elevated mixed-layer. Given
the intense lower/mid-tropospheric jet streak (including 60-80+ kt southwesterly within this layer) now overspreading this region,
profiles still appear conducive to the downward transfer of damaging
gusts to the surface in the heavier rain cores.

Continuing tornadic potential remains more unclear with stronger
convection becoming undercut by the surface cold pool. However,
given a saturated near surface-layer with at least moist adiabatic
lapse rates, and the strong to extreme nature of the low-level
shear, meso-vortices with enhanced wind damage, and perhaps tornado,
potential may persist into the 04-06Z time frame.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7jh2lbrT-waRpVEPKo647OkWBJhHQj1mlF-rC6kSBhOYzCIJJiWdJM03vVFlTaJIl-QnrAyww= mqrEOOJCmz7E1aINiI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 37508739 38628634 39158547 39048393 37078553 35028891
35478959 37508739=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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