ACUS02 KWNS 240651
SWODY2
SPC AC 240649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday across portions of the
central Plains southeast into the Ozarks and east into the Tennessee Valley.

... Discussion ...

A fast moving shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Pacific
Northwest into the central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley on Wednesday.
At the surface, a low will develop across the Texas Panhandle within
a deepening lee trough before moving southeast then east overnight
near the Red River.

Ahead of this trough/surface low, southerly winds will continue
moistening the boundary layer, with dewpoints reaching the mid 50Fs
across far southeast Oklahoma, Arkansas and northern Mississippi by
Thursday morning. Warm temperatures aloft should inhibit deep
convection during the day on Wednesday across the warm sector.
However, strengthening southwesterly low-to-mid-level flow
throughout the warm sector should result in enough moist isentropic
ascent across the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley that showers and
a few thunderstorms will be possible, especially late Wednesday
night as cooling midlevel temperatures overspread the area.

Farther west, thunderstorms may develop in associate with the
aforementioned shortwave trough itself as it traverses the central
Plains during the day on Wednesday. Here, cold mid-level
temperatures overspreading a slowly moistening boundary layer may
yield enough instability to support a few showers and thunderstorms.

..Marsh.. 02/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 250634
SWODY2
SPC AC 250632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Southeast on
Thursday, the strongest of which may be capable of producing a
couple of strong wind gusts.

... Discussion ...

A mid-level shortwave trough over the Central Plains is forecast to
weaken as it tracks southwest toward the Gulf Coast states during
the day Thursday. At the surface, a low initially located across
central Texas will shift southward during the day, leaving an
elongated area of low pressure stretching east-northeast along a
residual surface front. This boundary is expected to sag slowly
southward through the day, though low-level convergence along the
front appears weak.

... Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast ...

Boundary-layer moisture will be characterized by dewpoints perhaps
as high as mid 60Fs across the northern Gulf Coast decreasing to mid
50Fs across northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia. The strongest
instability is expected across Louisiana, where MUCAPE may approach
1000 J/kg. However, forecast soundings across this region indicate a
notable capping inversion between 850 and 700 mb. Further north and
east, the airmass will be characterized by lesser instability but
much weaker capping inversion.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop along and
ahead of the sagging surface front. The overall severe threat should
be limited owing to the meager instability and the weakening nature
of the primary forcing mechanism. Additionally, low-level shear is
notably weaker than previous model runs -- continuing the trend
started yesterday.

Nevertheless, sufficient deep-layer shear persists to support
organized linear modes, especially with the stronger convective
elements. While the lack of stronger low-level forcing and meager
low-level buoyancy should prevent a widespread event, the more
robust convective segments will be capable of producing isolated strong/damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 02/25/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 260651
SWODY2
SPC AC 260650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are likely over parts of the Southeast on
Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast.

... Discussion ...

A deamplifying shortwave tough is forecast to move across the
Southeast through the period, embedded within a broader regime of
mid-level toughing across the eastern US. This large-scale setup
will maintain modest ascent across the Gulf States and South
Atlantic coast. At the surface, a weak cold front will continue to
sag slowly south toward the Gulf Coast and northern Florida Peninsula.

Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover at the start of the period
across central Alabama and Georgia are expected to persist,
gradually shifting south and east through the period. While
thermodynamic conditions support thunderstorms, the overall severe
threat should remain low due to weak low-level convergence and
limited instability.

... Southern Alabama/Georgia and the Florida Panhandle ...

Seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by dewpoints in the
low 60Fs will be in place ahead of the sagging surface boundary.
Despite surface temperatures warming into the low 70Fs, widespread
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will likely limit overall
diurnal heating.

Modified soundings suggest a marginally unstable environments with
MLCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg. These buoyancy profiles appear
tall and skinny, which, combined with the lack of stronger forcing,
will limit the potential for robust updrafts. While hodographs are
notably elongated, suggesting deep-layer shear should be sufficient
for some storm organization, weak low-level kinematic fields and
poor low-level convergence should preclude a sustained, organized
severe threat.

... Florida Peninsula ...

South of the primary frontal zone, additional thunderstorm
development appears possible during the day on Friday across the
Florida peninsula. Forecast soundings across the peninsula indicate
the presence of a CAPE robbing capping inversion around 700 mb,
although this inversion lifts during the day in response to subtle
height falls associated with the synoptic trough. The associated
warmer mid-level temperatures associated with the capping inversion
will limit MLCAPE to between 500-1000 J/kg. Additionally, hodograph
lengths decrease with southward extent, indicative of weakening
deep-layer shear. Given this type of environment and the lack of
focused forcing, any thunderstorm should remain disorganized and
below severe limits.

..Marsh.. 02/26/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 270658
SWODY2
SPC AC 270656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the Florida Peninsula, and
from parts of northern California into southern Oregon on Saturday.
Additional thunderstorms will be possible across the Southern Plains
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.

...Florida...
A mid-level trough will be located in the eastern Gulf at the start
of the period. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to be ongoing over parts of the southern and central
Florida Peninsula, ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range may
support a few strong thunderstorms during the early to mid
afternoon. Convective coverage is expected to gradually decrease by
early evening as the trough passes through the southern Florida
Peninsula.

...Oklahoma/Northern Texas...
Northwesterly flow at mid-levels will be in place over the southern
Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a low will be present over
northwest Texas, as a cold front moves southeastward across parts of
Oklahoma into the Ozarks. To the south of the front, flow will be
southerly from central and east Texas into southern Oklahoma. As
moisture advection occurs during the afternoon and evening, surface
dewpoints will increase into the lower to mid 50s F across a narrow
corridor from north-central Texas into central and northeast
Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
front along the moist axis during the late evening in northeast
Oklahoma. As a subtle shortwave trough moves across the southern
Plains overnight, a few storms may also develop further south across
central and southern Oklahoma. Although hail will be possible with
the stronger updrafts, the convection appears likely to remain below
severe limits.

...Northern California/Southern Oregon...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move eastward toward
the West Coast on Saturday. At the surface, surface dewpoints across
the Sacramento Valley will be in the mid 50s F. Warming surface
temperatures during the day should result in MLCAPE peaking around
500 J/kg. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
trough over northern California, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible in parts of the Sacramento Valley in the afternoon.
The instability combined with steepening low-level lapse rates could
support a strong thunderstorm or two.

..Broyles.. 02/27/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 280639
SWODY2
SPC AC 280638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of south
Florida, the southern and central Plains, and in northern California.

...DISCUSSION...
A subtle shortwave trough will approach the Florida Peninsula on
Sunday. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms will be
possible across south Florida Sunday afternoon near a
quasi-stationary front. Further west into the southern and central
Plains, elevated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening into
the overnight within west-northwesterly mid-level flow, from
southeast Kansas southwestward across parts of Oklahoma. Finally,
isolated thunderstorms may also develop Sunday afternoon as a
shortwave trough moves inland across northern California. No severe
threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 02/28/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 010635
SWODY2
SPC AC 010634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Monday night across
parts of the central U.S., in south Florida, and from the
Intermountain West into the central High Plains.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the Great
Plains on Monday. At the surface, a front will become
quasi-stationary across north-central Texas, as a ridge of high
pressure remains over Kansas and western Oklahoma. To the south of
the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. Over the
top of the post-frontal airmass, south to south-southwest flow will
result in moisture advection. As low-level flow strengthens in the
evening, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop from
northwest Texas to central Kansas. After midnight on the northern
edge of a consolidating low-level jet, scattered thunderstorms will
be possible from north-central and northeast Kansas eastward into
northern Missouri.

Further to the west, additional storms will be possible in the
vicinity of a mid-level trough from the Intermountain West into the
central High Plains. Isolated storms may also develop in south
Florida during the day. No severe threat is expected across the
continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 03/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 020658
SWODY2
SPC AC 020657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail will be possible Tuesday and
Tuesday night from parts of western Oklahoma into south-central and
eastern Kansas.

...Southern and Central Plains...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward into the
southern Rockies as flow remains southwesterly over the southern and
central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across Kansas during the day and into western and northern Oklahoma
during the evening. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching trough will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development near the front and across the post-frontal airmass
during the evening and overnight. NAM forecast soundings from
western Oklahoma into south-central Kansas around midnight have
effective shear of 40 to 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates in
the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This suggests that isolated large hail will
be possible with rotating storms. The threat is expected to remain
marginal and could persist into the early morning hours on
Wednesday.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 070606
SWODY2
SPC AC 070604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.

...Carolinas into southeast VA...

An upper shortwave trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes and
across the Northeast by Sunday evening. Another weaker shortwave
impulse will move across the TN Valley during the afternoon before
emerging over VA/NC by early Monday. A belt of enhanced
southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern extent of
a warm sector across southeast VA into NC/SC. Modest surface
troughing is forecast across the Piedmont, but low-level convergence
is expected to remain weak. A surface front will not move much
through afternoon, but with time will begin to develop
south/southeast across the region during the evening.

Modest midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoint in the 60s will
foster weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorm development is
expected during the afternoon into evening ahead of the surface
boundary. While low-level flow will remain weak, southwesterly flow
aloft will increase rapidly, leading to around 25-30 kt effective
shear magnitudes (somewhat higher across southeast VA/far northeast
NC). A couple of organized cells could develop and pose a risk for
locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 100602
SWODY2
SPC AC 100600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley vicinity.

...ArkLaTex to Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...

A messy scenario is evident heading into Wednesday from east Texas
northeast into PA/MD/VA. A northern stream upper trough will develop
east across the Great Lakes/Midwest, while a southern stream
shortwave trough moves across TX and the Lower MS Valley. A broad
swath of strong southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread these
areas, with a particularly strong jet max across the Ohio Valley
(80-100 kt at 500 mb). At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
from southern Lower MI into central OK Wednesday morning. A
dryline/Pacific front will then extend southward across east-central
TX. A surface cyclone is expected to deepen as it moves northeast
near the international border and Lower Great Lakes through
Wednesday evening. As this occurs, the surface cold front will
develop southeast, eventually overtaking the TX dryline during the
afternoon. This front will become oriented from the Mid-Atlantic
coast to the central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.

Ahead of the surface boundaries, a broad warm sector will be in
place, with surface dewpoints into the 60s F as far north as PA. The
strongest instability will likely be focused across the Lower MS
Valley where dewpoints into the mid/upper 60s F are possible and at
least some stronger surface heating will be possible. With northward
extent, instability will decrease, but MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg
will be common across the Ohio Valley into VA. One of the main
concerns/points of uncertainty precluding higher probabilities
across the Ohio Valley vicinity is possible ongoing convection
during the morning, and multiple rounds of convection within the
broad warm advection regime limiting lapse rates/instability and
greater severe potential. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer
southwesterly flow will support damaging wind potential across a
broad area and an outlook upgrade was considered for parts of
southeast OH/northeast KY/southwest PA and western/northern WV. If
enough destabilization occurs and a strongly forced line of
convection develops, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes could occur.

Further south into the ArkLaTex and Lower MS Valley vicinity, a line
of convection is expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning.
Deep-layer flow will not be as strong compared to further north, but
still more than adequate for organized convection. Lapse rates are
forecast to remain modest, but linear convection along the surging
cold front will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Some forecast
guidance suggests discrete convection could develop ahead of the
line. If this occurs, some increased risk for tornadoes will
develop, especially as storms merge with the line. However,
confidence in this scenario is low. Depending on forecast trends,
outlook upgrades could become necessary in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130510
SWODY2
SPC AC 130508

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Saturday, a strong upper trough will dig into the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies during the day, and into the northern
and central High Plains by 12Z Sunday. To the east, an upper trough
will exit New England, with rapid height rises across much of the
Northeast overnight.

At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain relatively stable for
much of the period with high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes
into the Southeast, and extending across the northern Gulf of
America. The exception during the day will be over the FL Peninsula,
where weak east to southeast winds will maintain mid to upper 60s F dewpoints.

...FL...
Daytime heating and surface convergence will lead to a few
thunderstorms by afternoon over the interior Peninsula and along the
Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings show relatively warm and dry
midlevels, with lightly veering winds with height. The end result
should be non-severe thunderstorms, though locally gusty winds are
always possible.

...Elsewhere...
Though little thunderstorm activity is expected through Sunday
morning, a powerful upper trough will develop across the Rockies and
into the High Plains into Sunday. Sporadic lightning cannot be ruled
out over western WY and vicinity as the left-exit region of the
midlevel jet moves overhead. A surface low will then develop
overnight into the central Plains, and this will bring a warm front
north into southern IA. Overall moisture at this time appears
meager, but isolated lightning cannot totally be ruled out with any
highly elevated convective showers Sunday morning across northern IA
into MN and WI well north of the warm front.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 190528
SWODY2
SPC AC 190526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the
Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida coast.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain over the Southwest on Friday, with strong
northwest flow aloft along the Canadian border. A low-amplitude
upper wave will move from northern MN across the upper Great Lakes
late in the day and overnight, with a weak surface low moving from
the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A cold front will extend from
southwest Ontario into MO by 18Z, with southwesterly surface winds
helping to bring a plume of low to mid 50s F dewpoints as far north
as OH and western PA.

Marginal low-level moistening and daytime heating will lead to weak instability, which may support isolated thunderstorms developing
within the warm advection zone into the Upper OH Valley and
vicinity. Severe storms are not forecast due to the weak
instability, however, veering winds with height and good deep-layer
shear will support cellular activity, perhaps with very
small/non-severe hail.

Elsewhere, the tail-end of the western Atlantic trough will maintain
cool temperatures aloft over FL. This will support afternoon
destabilization, with isolated activity near the eastern shores
where localized surface convergence may develop.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 200556
SWODY2
SPC AC 200555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from
the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians. Thunderstorms
will also be possible in Wisconsin and Lower Michigan Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Saturday, as
northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the
Eastern Seaboard. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough will
move through the Tennessee Valley. Ahead of this feature, scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day from southern Kentucky
and Tennessee southeastward across northern Georgia and South
Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible Saturday
night from Wisconsin into western Michigan, as a mid-level jet
streak moves eastward across the Great Lakes. No severe
thunderstorms are forecast Saturday and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 220553
SWODY2
SPC AC 220552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday across parts
of the Carolinas and Georgia.

...Carolinas/Georgia...

An upper-level trough will move eastward to the Eastern Seaboard on
Monday, as a cold front advances southward through the Carolinas.
Surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F ahead of the front will
contribute to weak destabilization. As surface temperatures warm and
low-level convergence increases along the front, isolated
thunderstorms are expected to form. These cells will move
southeastward toward the coast during the afternoon. Moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates may be enough for a
marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 03/22/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)