Mesoscale Discussion 0149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026
Areas affected...southern Lower Michigan...northern Indiana...and
northeast Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 062010Z - 062215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms are possible through the
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has been gradually
intensifying along a warm front in far southwestern Lower MI this
afternoon, with additional deepening cumulus extending
west-southwestward across northern IN into northeastern IL. Here,
lower 60s dewpoints and diurnal heating has yielded a corridor of
weak surface-based buoyancy along the southern edge of widespread
clouds. Despite the weak buoyancy, strong deep-layer wind field
(sampled by regional VWP) is yielding an elongated hodograph with
enhanced low-level curvature. This environment may promote some
storm organization this afternoon, including small clusters and
brief/transient supercell structures. Locally damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado risk will accompany the stronger storms that
evolve. The overall severe risk may remain too isolated for a watch,
though trends are being monitored.