MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH

ACUS11 KWNS 160008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160007
KYZ000-INZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...Central/Southern Indiana into south central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 160007Z - 160100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch will likely be issued by 01z from
portions of central Indiana, south into south central Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line, with embedded bows and
circulations, is propagating steadily east toward western Indiana.
This LEWP appears to have increased its eastward movement to around
35-40kt, and should exit the current watch into west central Indiana
by 01z. In advance of the squall line, a roughly 50mi wide band of
weak elevated convection has evolved across southeast Illinois into
western Indiana. This activity has struggled to attain intensity,
but is likely a reflection of the adjusting lapse rates in response
to the strong large-scale ascent that is spreading into this region.
New Tornado watch will be issued by 01z.

..Darrow/Smith.. 03/16/2026

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 36978684 40108724 39858508 37038492 36978684

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH

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