MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 161404
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161403
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-161630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Central Virginia into Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161403Z - 161630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase through the morning.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection and cooling mid-level
temperatures will continue to destabilize Virginia into Maryland
this morning. Limited capping evident on the RNK and IAD 12Z RAOBs
has resulted in scattered warm sector development ahead of the
primary squall line. These messy-mode storms will continue to limit
heating, but may have some severe threat as above mentioned
destabilization continues within a strong wind profile.

Low-level shear, already strong at 12Z, will continue to strengthen
through the day. Therefore, any stronger/deeper updrafts could have
some tornado threat late this morning into the early afternoon. The
primary threat still appears to be the wind/embedded tornado threat
later this afternoon as the secondary mid-level jet streak ejects
east of the Appalachians and wind fields strengthen rapidly.
However, even this threat is contingent on the evolution of these
morning storms. A tornado watch will likely be needed at some point, potentially by later this morning if the morning storms start to
show more organization/structure.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 03/16/2026

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37357914 37957944 38687939 39507874 39677817 39637606
38697616 37687651 36797746 36587878 37357914

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

$$
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