936
FXUS64 KMRX 140631
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into
the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible.

- There are limited chances precipitation through the forecast
period, with little relief from the worsening drought and fire
weather conditions.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A large ridge of high pressure will remain over the Gulf and SE
CONUS at least into the first half of the weekend, keeping moisture
very limited over our area and temperatures well above normal for
this time of year.

Significant cloud cover Monday helped to hold temperatures down a
bit, but today and Wednesday will bring fewer clouds, more
insolation, and higher temperatures as highs make a run at records
both days. Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather
interests, bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and
Wednesday for most locations, but for the most part SW winds will
not be higher than the 5-15 mph range.

Models show the ridge being suppressed on Thursday/Thursday night as
a mid/upper level short wave trough crosses the region, although it
will still be very warm. The NBM has been trending higher with rain
chances, which are now in the chance range for all but the far
southern portions of the area in the late Thu/early Thu night time
frame. The NAM is more aggressive as is often the case, but overall model/ensemble data suggests moisture will be limited and the better convective energy will be to our west. Some weakening convection
will likely approach from the west, but it is still questionable how
much will make it into our area. Tempering any expectations for
significant rainfall with this system looks prudent for now.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the short wave. High
temperatures will be at least approaching records both Friday and
Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday night into
Sunday as models show a deeper trough developing over the Plains
that could push a cold front through our area as it moves east, but
these details are still in flux so uncertainty is high for how much precipitation we may see. It does look a bit cooler at the end of
the period as highs should be back closer to normal for Sunday and
Monday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Southwesterly winds around 10kts will
return late morning into tomorrow afternoon. Gusts near 20kts possible
at TYS. Mid to high level CIGS through the first 2/3rds of the TAF
cycle. Skies will clear with light winds returning in the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 59 86 60 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 85 57 86 58 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 55 84 58 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

108
FXUS64 KMRX 141717
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into
the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible.

- Chance of showers Thursday evening, but light amounts will mean
little relief from the worsening drought and fire weather
conditions.

- Increasing confidence of showers with a cold front passage
Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by cooler temperatues next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather story for the
area, thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the Gulf and SE
CONUS.

Today and Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs
with a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover.
Low RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests,
bottoming out in the 25-35% range both today and Wednesday for most
locations, but for the most part SW winds will not be higher than
the 5-15 mph range.

The mid/upper ridge axis gets pushed east on Thrusday as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west. This system brings a chance of
showers Thursday evening, but weak dynaimc forcing and limited
moisture will result in light QPF amounts (< 0.1 on average) and
little impact on the ongoing drought conditions and wildfires. There
is some elevated instability that will support some thunderstorms,
mainly in our Plateau counties.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the exiting shortwave
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday
night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the
Plains that could push a cold front through our area. Model
agreement, run-to-run consistency, and jet-induced dynamic forcing
lead to increasing confidence of rain chances. Behind the front,
cooler temperatures are expected as highs should be closer to
normal, or slightly below, for Sunday and Monday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-14 87(2010) 86(1887) 85(1938) 88(2017)
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Winds through the afternoon will be 10-15 kt with some gusts up to
20 kt, decreasing around 23-00Z. Southwest winds tomorrow will be
lighter, mainly 5-10 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

761
FXUS64 KMRX 151059
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 656 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Well above normal temperatures expected through this week into
the first half of the weekend. Record highs are possible.

- Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts
will generally be light providing little relief from the
worsening drought and fire weather conditions

- A better chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning,
followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Unseasonably hot and dry conditions continue to be the main weather
story for the area, thanks to a persistent large ridge of high
pressure over the Gulf and SE CONUS.

For Wednesday, high temperatures will be close to record highs with
a SW flow, subsidence under the ridge, and limited cloud cover. Low
RH values will be of concern for fire weather interests, bottoming
out in the 25-35% range Wednesday for most locations, but for the
most part SW winds will not be higher than the 5-15 mph range.

The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave
trough approaching from the west late Thursday that will move across
our area Thursday night. The late arrival of increased cloud cover
and precip chances Thursday will allow for another very warm day
with high temperatures not far off the records. RH values will again
bottom out in the 25 to 35% range during the afternoon and winds
will be slightly stronger. As the short wave moves in it will bring
a chance of showers late Thursday into Thursday night, but weak
forcing and limited moisture will generally result in light rainfall
amounts, and little overall impact on the ongoing drought conditions
and wildfires (ensemble data has chances for 24 hour precipitation
amounts exceeding a quarter inch ranging from around 10% to 30%,
with the higher values across our northwest counties). Models show
some limited instability that may support a few thunderstorms, with
the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday
night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the
Plains that will drag a cold front through our area as the trough
moves east. Models are in decent agreement on this scenario,
although differ more in the details that will be important in
determining how much precipitation we will see. Ensemble data
currently shows around a 50% chance of seeing over a quarter inch of
rain and closer to a 20% chance of seeing more than a half inch (24
hour period). What is more certain than the precip amounts is that
we will see cooler temperatures moving in with high temperatures
near or even a bit below normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will begin to trend warmer again Tuesday.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions continue among a diurnal wind pattern persistent
with previous days. Breezy southwest winds in the afternoon.
becoming light overnight. Amplified low-level flow may result in
a period of LLWS tomorrow night as well. But confidence too low to
include this far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 20 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 61 85 61 / 0 0 20 40
Oak Ridge, TN 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 30 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 57 83 59 / 0 0 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

510
FXUS64 KMRX 151716
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
116 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday. Record
highs are possible.

- Chance of showers Thursday evening, but precipitation amounts will
generally be light, providing little relief from the worsening
drought and fire weather conditions.

- A cold front brings a chance of showers Saturday night/Sunday
morning, followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Hot and dry conditions continue for the next 24 hours, thanks to a
persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over FL today.
Thursday will be similar to today, with highs in the 80s under
mostly sunny skies. Afternoon RH values will drop to between 25-35%,
with SW winds in the 10-15 mph range. This will be borderline for a
Fire Danger Statement, and will reevlaute the need for that tomorrow
morning after coordination with forestry.

The ridge axis will shift eastward Thursday afternoon as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west and cross our area Thursday night.
Showers should be showing a decreasing trend as they move across
Middle TN Thursday afternoon, but what remains of them will enter
our area late Thursday afternoon, likely between 4 and 6 PM EDT.
Weak forcing and limited moisture will generally result in scattered
coverage and light rainfall amounts (mainly a tenth to a quater inch
in the Plateau/SW VA/NE TN). Models show some elevated instability
(~800-900 MUCAPE in the NAM) that may support a few thunderstorms,
with the highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau
counties. Shear is too weak to support any severe threat.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may arrive for Saturday
night into Sunday as models show a deep trough developing over the
Plains that will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in
decent agreement on this scenario, although differ more in the
details that will be important in determining how much precipitation
we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 50% chance of
seeing over a quarter inch of rain and closer to a 20% chance of
seeing more than a half inch (24 hour period). A severe threat looks
unlikely at this time given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler
temperatures move in on Sunday, with highs near or even a bit below
normal both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend
warmer again Tuesday.


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-15 87(2006) 87(1936) 85(1945) 86(2024)
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)
04-19 91(2002) 90(1941) 90(1941) 90(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Winds will be generally 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt at TYS
through the afternoon, dropping off around sunset. LLWS will be
mentioned in the TAFs as surface winds decouple from winds aloft,
which will be around 25 kt. With daytime mixing, gusty winds will
develop again late in this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 87 62 90 / 0 20 20 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 85 61 86 / 0 20 40 10
Oak Ridge, TN 59 85 60 87 / 0 30 40 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 83 59 82 / 0 10 40 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

329
FXUS64 KMRX 160636
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.
Record highs are possible.

- Chance of showers late today into tonight but precipitation
amounts will generally be light, providing little relief from
the worsening drought and fire weather conditions.

- A cold front will bring a chance of showers/storms Saturday
and Saturday night, followed by cooler temperatures early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The persistent large ridge of high pressure centered over the
southeastern CONUS will sponsor hot and dry conditions through much
of the day today. High temperatures will once again be in the 80s
and will not be far off of record highs. Afternoon RH values will be
low but not quite as low as recent days, dropping into the 30s
across much of the area. However, winds will be a bit stronger with
SW winds generally in the 10-15 mph range with higher gusts. It
still looks borderline for any fire danger statement, but if one is
deemed to be needed it will be issued during the morning hours when coordination with the forestry folks can occur.

The mid/upper ridge will briefly be interrupted by a shortwave
trough approaching from the west late today that will move across
our area during the night. We will see showers approaching from the
west later today and these may move into at least western areas
later in the afternoon with showers moving across the remainder of
the area overnight. Weak forcing and limited moisture will
generally result in scattered coverage and light rainfall amounts,
providing little relief from the ongoing drought conditions and
wildfires. Right now, QPF values generally range from just a few
hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch. Models show some
limited instability (HREF mean MUCAPE values are generally around or
less than 500 J/kg) that may support a few thunderstorms, with the
highest chance for thunder being across our Plateau counties. Shear
looks too weak to suggest a severe threat.

The ridge will build back Friday behind the departing shortwave
trough. High temperatures will be approaching records again on
Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances will arrive by Saturday
night as models show a deep trough developing over the Plains that
will drag a cold front through our area. Models are in decent
agreement on this scenario, although differ a bit more in the
details that will be important in determining how much precipitation
we will see. Ensemble data currently shows around a 20% (south) to
50% (north/west) chance of seeing over a half inch of rain in a 24
hour period. A significant severe threat looks unlikely at this time
given the generally weak dynamics and limited moisture/instability
ahead of the system on Saturday. Cooler temperatures move in on
Sunday behind the front, with highs near or even a bit below normal
both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will begin to trend warmer
again Tuesday and Wednesday.


Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-16 89(2002) 87(1896) 87(2002) 88(2002)
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

KMRX VAD Wind Profile shows winds near 2kft approaching 30kts once
again this morning. Have included a period of LLWS for TYS and
TRI. KHTX data is slightly less so LLWS has been left out of KCHA
at this time. Another round of breezy southwest winds this
afternoon, though, this afternoon will favor gusts at all three
sites. Late tomorrow afternoon & evening some scattered showers
will move across the area, especially the north. Have included
some VCSH at TYS/TRI, with a prob30 including some TSRA at TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 61 89 61 / 20 20 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 60 85 59 / 30 50 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 84 58 85 58 / 40 60 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 81 54 / 10 60 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

394
FXUS64 KMRX 161835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.
Record highs are possible.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late this
afternoon into this evening. Another round of isolated to
widely scattered showers and storms possible early Friday
morning. Isolated storms could produce strong and gusty winds
and small hail.

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and possibly a
thunderstorm late Saturday and especially Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again
next week. Low afternoon relative humidity early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

SPC meso analysis shows a well mixed boundary layer this afternoon
producing breezy conditions. Instability is increasing especially
over the Plateau with MLCAPEs of 500-100. DCAPEs of 800-900 with dry
mid-level and sub-cloud layers will likely produce strong and gusty
winds with the storms. There is a marginal risk of severe storms.

A weak wave over west TN/AR/MO will approach the region by early
Friday morning. Currently strong convection has developed with this
feature. Some of the CAM models show isolate to widely scattered
storms moving into the area late tonight. Due to the colder air
aloft with the upper trough, mid-level lapse rates steepen. There is
a low end confidence of isolated storms producing hail up to one-
half inch. Greatest potential north of interstate 40.

After this wave moves east early Friday, a return to dry and
unseasonably warm conditions tomorrow with low afternoon relative
humidity.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

For Saturday (especially late) into Saturday night, a strong upper
trough will dig into the Great Lakes into the Tennessee valley. The
jet dynamics with this system will enhance the fronto-genetic
forcing along this incoming cold front producing widespread showers
and possible a thunderstorm. Instability ahead of this system is
quite limited over the Tennessee valley. Ensemble analysis shows QPF
of 0.25 to 0.40 inch with this system. Much needed rainfall but
still will not too much for our ongoing drought conditions.

For much of next week, dry conditions return with a dry surface
ridge producing low afternoon humidities into the 20s and 30s.
Cooler temperatures for early week but quickly moderate to above
normal temperatures by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Main concerns through the forecast is the expected scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing late today through the night
especially across TRI and TYS. First round of scattered convection
will develop near the Plateau counties and move east into east
Tennessee. This is in response to low-level convergence into that
region and approaching upper trough. Instability is limited with
CAPES of 500-1000 but due to dry air aloft and below cloud base,
strong and gusty winds are anticipated.

As the upper trough approaches overnight, another round of
isolated showers and storms are possible mainly for TRI and TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 89 63 88 / 20 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 85 60 86 / 50 0 0 30
Oak Ridge, TN 58 85 59 86 / 50 0 0 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 81 55 84 / 50 0 0 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

847
FXUS64 KMRX 170700
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
300 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue through Saturday.
Record highs are possible.

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and possibly a
thunderstorm late Saturday and especially Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Not too many changes this morning. Hot weather again today and
Saturday, with the expected cold front likely to sweep through early
Sunday morning. Ahead of the front will be another batch of rain
showers, with possibly a thunderstorm or two, which will bring
another round of much needed rainfall to the region, though
certainly not a drought buster. A few showers may start encroaching
on the area Saturday afternoon, but the more likely bulk of the rain
will fall overnight into early Sunday morning. CAPE profiles from
longer range CAM models don't look overly promising for storm
development at this time. Depending on how much rainfall any one
location got from the first round of rain a few hours ago, the
totals for the week will be close to average or still below average
for a week of April. Unfortunately, more substantive relief from the
drought will remain on hold.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge
04-17 91(1955) 90(1896) 85(2002) 88(1955)
04-18 90(2002) 90(1896) 87(2002) 89(2002)

Following the front, another disgustingly dry airmass will deposit
down onto the region, and with the H85 southeastern ridge being
fairly stagnant, we can expect daily low relative humidity minimums
for much of the following work week. Rain chances don't seem likely
to start creeping in until the end of the work week, with no
interesting disturbances in either model suite. Temperatures behind
the front will take a healthy nose dive, with potential for isolated
frost across northern locations Monday and Tuesday mornings. This is
provided there's enough surface moisture to allow for frost
formation. Temperatures will steadily rebound thanks again to
influence by the H85 ridge, and by late week next week we'll be back
in the 80s across much of the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Calm conditions expected, with possible light showers to move
over CHA in the next 2 hours or so. TYS up to TRI saw the most
measurable rainfall yesterday evening, so fog development could be
possible. Low confidence on occurrence, but a TEMPO was added to
account for the chance. Clearing conditions expected later today
with ridging and SFC high pressure building back in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 64 88 49 / 0 0 20 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 61 86 48 / 0 0 20 80
Oak Ridge, TN 87 60 86 47 / 0 0 30 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 84 46 / 0 0 30 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

334
FXUS64 KMRX 171827
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Well above normal temperatures continue into Saturday.

- A cold front will bring widespread showers and some
thunderstorms late Saturday and especially Saturday night.

- Cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, but warming up again
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Conditions are once again warm and dry across the region this
afternoon. Blended in some NBM10 to the dewpoints for this afternoon
and evening to lower RH values as has been done in recent days. Dry
conditions continue overnight and into the midday or early afternoon
hours tomorrow before rain chances increase tomorrow night due to an
an approaching cold front from the west.

Frontal passage looks to fall between 8pm and maybe 11pm tomorrow
evening. Most precipitation will fall in close proximity to the
front but some guidance indicates some possibility of convection
developing out ahead of the front. Model soundings aren't too
impressive with respect to severe chances. However, there is
supporting evidence of a very low end damaging wind threat. Model
soundings show several hundred Joules of downdraft CAPE in the late
afternoon and early evening hours just ahead of the front. Using
HREF ensemble max wind gusts as a proxy for convective wind gust
potential, it shows some areas exceeding 40-45 mph tomorrow evening
as well, mainly in the south where it will be warmer and more deeply
mixed. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a few reports of some
downed trees. I also wouldn't be surprised if there are no strong
storms whatsoever and it's just a breezy, convective frontal passage
given the marginal environment.

Otherwise, behind the front temperatures cool significantly and
another very dry air mass will move in. Freezing levels do fall
quickly behind the front, but it appears precip will wrap up before
they're low enough to mention any sort of chance of snow showers in
the higher terrain. We'll be much cooler Sunday through Monday
night. Could see some potential frost in the north on Sunday and
Monday nights if it's not too dry. After the cooldown, temperatures
steadily rebound through next week with dry conditions expected to
continue as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR flight categories are expected through the end of the 18z TAF
period. Low level winds will begin to increase towards the tail
end of the period, such that some gusts of 15-20kt could occur at
KTYS, but would expect that after 16z so no plan to include that
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 87 49 68 / 0 20 90 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 85 47 64 / 0 30 90 20
Oak Ridge, TN 59 85 46 65 / 0 40 100 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 84 45 61 / 0 30 90 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

397
FXUS64 KMRX 180655
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 254 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Showers and storms will move into the area through this evening with
some strong to marginally severe storms possible. Damaging
winds and hail are the main concerns, especially along and north
of Interstate 40.

- Drier and much cooler conditions are expected Sunday into Monday
with low RH's in the 20s and lower 30s returning.

- Dry conditions will continue through the week, along with a
gradual warming trend. Low RH's continue to be of concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Currently, a trough/upper jet is centered to our northwest with a
surface low moving into Ontario, Canada. This setup has produced a
broad warm sector and large-scale severe weather event with a cold
front extending along and west of the Mississippi River. This cold
front will approach the area throughout the day today with
increasing southerly flow out ahead. Showers and storms, some
discrete, are expected during the evening hours ahead of this front.
The focus for strong to marginally severe storms continues to be in
the northern half of the region where MLCAPE of near 1,000 J/kg is
suggested due to better height falls. While stronger flow is
expected aloft, 850mb winds will remain generally 30 kts or less
with limited low-level shear. CAPE within the -10 to -30 Celsius
region is indicated to be near 400 J/kg with WBZ heights around
10,000 feet. This continues to suggest low-end threats for damaging
winds and hail, as shown in the outlook. The cold front will move
through the area after midnight, leading to decreasing rain coverage.

Throughout the day on Sunday, the cold front will have pushed well
off to the east with high pressure expanding from the southwest.
This will lead to cooler and drier conditions with high temperatures
remaining in the 60s for most. Low RH's in the 20s will come back
into view, along with northwesterly winds. Sunday night will be
notably cooler following recent subsidence with some places dropping
into the 30s. By Monday, high pressure will be centered nearby,
leading to a weaker MSLP gradient/winds but continued dry
conditions. Even cooler low temperatures can be expected Monday
night, potentially cold enough for frost in some areas. By Tuesday,
recent troughing and surface high pressure will shift off to the
east, producing a shift to southerly flow and height rises. This
will begin another warming trend with highs rising back above
normal. Ridging will lead to further height rises through the end of
the week with most places rising back into the 80s. Low RH's will
continue to be of concern with generally southerly to southwesterly
flow. With a fairly weak MSLP gradient and 850mb flow, wind gusts
will be generally 15 to 20 mph or less for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR and dry can generally be expected for the first three quarters
of the TAF period. SW winds will increase out ahead of a frontal
passage later this morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25KT
possible at TYS.

Wx and wind direction change expected around the last 6 hours of
the TAF. Wind direction to eventually turn out of the NW. Showers
with the front will approach and cross the area this evening and
part of the overnight hours. Low chances for TS, so do not have
anything mentioned, although it's a non zero chance. Degradation
to MVFR CIG and VSBY possible with the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 48 69 43 / 20 90 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 47 64 43 / 20 90 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 85 45 66 42 / 40 90 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 45 61 39 / 20 90 20 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

476
FXUS64 KMRX 181846
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Showers and storms expected this evening primary threat will be
damaging winds and small hail, especially along and north of
Interstate 40.

- Drier and much cooler conditions are expected Sunday into Monday
with low RH's in the 20s and lower 30s returning.

- Dry conditions will continue through the week, along with a
gradual warming trend. Low RH's continue to be of concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A cold front is approaching the area today with increasing
southerly flow out ahead. Showers and storms, some discrete, are
ongoing ahead of this front. However... the focus for strong to
marginally severe storms continues to be in the northern half of
the region where CAPE up to 1,000 J/kg is possible. While
stronger flow is expected in the mid levels, the 850mb winds will
remain generally light to moderate with limited low-level shear.
CAPE hail growth zone is could grow to 400 J/kg. So there remains
a low end threat for damaging winds and hail during the evening
hours. The cold front will move through the area after midnight,
leading to decreasing rain coverage.

Tomorrow the cold front will moved well to the east with high
pressure expanding from the southwest. This will lead to cooler
and drier conditions with high temperatures remaining in the 60s
for most. Low relative humidities in the 20s will return, along
with northwesterly winds. Tomorrow night will be cooler following
the front with some places dropping into the 30s. Next week, high
pressure will be centered overhead, leading to a lighter winds,
but dry conditions will continue. Cold low temperatures can be
expected again Monday night, potentially cold enough for frost in
some areas. By Tuesday, high pressure will shift off to the east,
turning winds more to southerly. This will begin another warming
trend with highs rising back above normal. Ridging will lead to
further strengthening pressure through the end of the week with
most places rising back into the 80s. Unfortunately low relative
humidities will continue next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

ISOLD SHRA will move into the TN valley in the next 2-4 hours, with
VCSH possible at all terminals for a few hours thereafter.
Increasing coverage in SHRA and embedded TSRA expected later
tonight. FROPA should occur around or shortly after 08z tonight,
with low-end VFR or possibly some MVFR CIGS lingering until daybreak
or thereabouts. Post-frontal winds should be fairly gusty tomorrow
so have gusts of 20-22kt at all sites to account for that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 48 68 44 75 / 90 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 64 43 68 / 100 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 46 65 41 69 / 100 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 61 38 62 / 100 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

188
FXUS64 KMRX 190703
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
303 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 301 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Drier and cooler conditions are expected today into early next
week.

- A warming trend will continue through much of the week with rain
chances returning Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Currently, a trough is approaching from the west with a cold front
moving through the region. With this cold front, showers and
embedded storms are gradually exiting to our east with high pressure
expanding from the southwest. This will increase northerly to
northwesterly winds with cooler temperatures this morning and into
the day. Significantly drier conditions are expected through the day
with RH values dropping well into the 20s area-wide. Tonight, high
pressure will become set up almost directly over the region, leading
to stronger subsidence, lighter winds, and cooler temperatures. Some
places in the northeast will drop into the 30s with patchy frost
possible. A similar pattern will continue on Monday, keeping
seasonally cool and dry conditions in place. Stronger subsidence
will allow for a further drop in temperatures Monday night with
frost more likely, especially in northeast Tennessee and southwest
Virginia. By Tuesday, a warming trend will continue with height
rises as ridging approaches from the west. Notably dry conditions
will remain in place.

Wednesday and Thursday, ridging will move into the region from the
west with high pressure keeping the region dry. Another trough will
approach from the west late in the week and into the weekend. There
is still uncertainty as to how this will evolve, but rain chances
will return at a minimum.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Cold front moving through the area very early this morning. RA has
just started at TRI as precip moves north and east. Light to mod
rain with MVFR CIG and VSBY will continue the next 3 to 4 hours
or so. No threat for TS. Conditions forecast to improve and dry
out close to sunrise. N to NW winds following the frontal passage
may be gusty at times today at all terminals. High pressure will
move in later today, promoting clearing skies and calm winds
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 44 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 43 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 65 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 38 62 35 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

402
FXUS64 KMRX 191825
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
225 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Drier and cooler conditions are expected today into early next
week.

- A warming trend will continue through much of the week with rain
chances returning Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The sunny skies have returned after the overnight rain. Most
locations in the valley saw around 0.5 inches of rain with some
places getting a bit more, and others getting a bit less. Not enough
to bust the drought, but hopefully will help even just a little with
fuel moisture. Winds out of the north to northwest behind the front
have helped keep temperatures down, running 20+ degrees cooler
compared to pre-frontal conditions yesterday. This cooler
temperature trend will continue overnight with places in northeast
TN, southwest VA, and elevations above 2,000 feet looking to dip
below 40 degrees. Cannot completely rule out frost, especially in
southwest VA with the coldest temperatures expected in that area.
Tomorrow will see a slight uptick in temperatures, but then we drop
again Tuesday morning with some parts of southwest VA and the
Appalachians looking to hit the freezing mark for a few hours
overnight. The Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings at WFO MRX do
not officially begin until May 1 based on climatology, but with how
warm we've been recently anyone with outdoor plants they planted
early due to the warm weather should take note for the cold temps.

Other than the cold morning temperatures coming up there is little
weather of note for the region as the generally dry trend continues
for much of the work week. A warming trend can be expected with each
day a bit warmer than the last, culminating in our hottest day of
the forecast looking to occur on Friday.

Over the weekend we'll have a couple of weaker disturbances move
through the Tennessee Valley which could bring additional rounds of
rain. As of this writing the synoptics look fairly mild and QPF
amounts look limited for the weekend. Of higher confidence is that
it will put a damper on the temperatures, dropping most places back
into the 70's with the increased cloud coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

High clouds are slow to move out this afternoon. Northwesterly
winds will remain slightly gusty, up to 20 knots, through early
evening. Clearing skies this evening. Winds will be lighter
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 75 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 69 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 41 70 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 37 61 35 71 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

297
FXUS64 KMRX 200659
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
259 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 257 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Slightly elevated fire weather conditions today.

- Patchy frost possible northeast TN and southwest VA tonight into
Tuesday morning.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend through the week. Increasing
chances of rain and storms Friday night and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

We begin the period with the backside of an upper-level trough still
in place across the area. Northwest flow continues and will allow a
dry airmass to persist across the region. As we further dry out from
Saturday night's rainfall, combined with the low RH and breezy winds
today, slightly elevated fire weather conditions will be in place.
The risk will be a little higher across Cherokee and Clay County NC,
and portions of northeast TN and southwest VA. These areas received
lesser rainfall compared to the rest of our area. It doesn't quite
look like Red Flag warning criteria will be met today but an
enhanced fire danger statement will likely be needed for potions of
the area. The day shift will coordinate with forestry partners later
this morning to determine issuance.


Otherwise, dry conditions and a warming trend continue through the
week as high pressure builds in across our area. A weak cold front
approaches on Wednesday and may bring a few light showers into
southwest VA, but chances are very low. By the end of the week,
models are showing a deepening trough across the western U.S. This
will break down of ridge of high pressure and put our region within
zonal flow. This zonal flow pattern will open the door for a series
of systems from Friday night and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Calm and clear under high pressure the rest of the night. W-NWly
winds will develop later today with possible gusts up to 20KT. Mid
to high clouds during the day, followed by a return to calm and
clear later tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 47 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 42 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 70 42 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 34 72 47 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Fire Weather Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
Cherokee-Clay.

TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

402
FXUS64 KMRX 201727
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
127 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Elevated fire danger continues through early this evening mainly
in Southwest North Carolina where fuels are still dry and winds are
slightly stronger.

- Patchy frost possible northeast TN and southwest VA tonight into
Tuesday morning.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend through the week. Increasing
chances of rain and storms Friday night and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. At the
surface, high pressure is currently centered over the Great Lakes.
With good mixing expected this afternoon due to clearing clouds,
relative humidity is expected to drop into the 25 to 35 percent
range for most of the region. Elevated fire danger this afternoon
and evening will be mainly in Southwest North Carolina and maybe the
East Tennessee mountains where fuels are still dry and winds are
slightly stronger.

Dry weather will continue through Friday. One possible exception is
a very low chance for a light shower in Southwest Virginia on
Wednesday afternoon as a system moves to our north. Patchy frost is
possible in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia late tonight
into Tuesday morning with clear, calm conditions expected with
cooler temperatures.

Otherwise, warm and sunny until the next system approaches the
region on Friday with the best chance of rain Friday night into
Saturday. A weak ridge will be over the Southeast this weekend. A
series of weak impulses moving through the pattern could bring
showers and storms off and on into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Westerly winds will continue to gust around 20 knots at times this
afternoon. Some clouds are lingering mainly near TRI. Clouds will
clear out overnight into tomorrow. Winds will be lighter tomorrow
and more southwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 42 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 34 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

379
FXUS64 KMRX 210648
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- After a cool morning, a gradual warming trend is expected with dry
conditions through much of the week.

- Showers and possibly a few storms are increasingly likely this
weekend with Saturday having the best chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Currently, mid/upper troughing has pushed off into the Atlantic with
surface high pressure to the northeast. This has led to another dry
and seasonally cool morning with patchy frost in northeast Tennessee
and southwest Virginia. Throughout the day, troughing will lift
further east, leading to height rises and warmer temperatures than
yesterday. Low RH's are expected again, but southerly flow will
slightly increase moisture. On Wednesday, a very weak shortwave will
pass to our northeast, bringing low-end rain chances close to
southwest Virginia. However, our area is expected to remain dry with
similarly mild temperatures.

By Thursday, a trough and deepening surface low will eject out of
the Rockies leading to increasing ridging and southerly flow in the
eastern U.S. Our area will remain dry during this time with most
places rising into the 80s. The ridge becomes more suppressed on
Friday, but continued southerly flow will lead to temperatures
further into the 80s. On Saturday, a shortwave is expected to move
into the region from the northwest with moisture having increased
further. Showers and possibly some storms are increasingly likely
across the area. Overall, winds aloft remain fairly light, but
instability could maybe support some stronger storms as indicated by
the CIPS Analogs. Hopefully, this provides some needed rainfall as
the southern half of the area is anywhere from 4 to 8 inches below
normal for the year so far. By Sunday, models differ on how much
moisture will remain in the region, so rain chances are lessened.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR and dry through the forecast period with light winds
developing out of the SW later today. Clear skies at this time may
lead to mid to high clouds during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 77 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

845
FXUS64 KMRX 211831
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
231 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
Friday. Highs will be around 10 degrees above normal. Low
afternoon relative humidity each day with 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing moisture and instability this weekend with likely
chances of showers and possibly storms, especially Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated for Monday and Tuesday. There
is a threat for strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

For Tonight and Wednesday, a short-wave will move across the upper
Ohio valley into the central Appalachians. This wave will produce an
area of showers and thunderstorms that will approach southwest
Virginia toward Wednesday morning. At this time, the dynamics and
moisture will stay north of the region with surface ridging, so dry
conditions are anticipated. Low afternoon relative humidity will
with values in the 20s.

For Thursday and Friday, upper ridge builds over the area producing
mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions. Highs will be around 10
degrees above normal. Low afternoon relative humidity will continue
with values in the 20s/30s.

For Friday night through Saturday, a northern stream (Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley) and southern stream waves (central Gulf coast
states) produce an area of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Since limited phasing is expected with these waves, and instability
and dynamics are limited, confidence is low on QPF amounts.
Currently expecting from 0.25 to 0.50 inch but ensemble
probabilities suggest lesser amounts.

Another system moves into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians early next week. The short-wave and jet dynamics will
this wave is stronger and taps into Gulf moisture. Joint ensemble
probability of CAPE/SHEAR suggest a great threat of strong to severe
storms possible. Will need to watch the evolution of this system
close as we move into the weekend for possible messaging of severe
storms. CIPS Analog also suggest the potential of severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours at all TAF
sites. Increasing low level jet overnight with 850mb winds of
30-35 knots will produce a chance of LLWS at TRI but confidence is
not high enough to include. Westerly winds will increase at TRI
tomorrow morning to 12-14 knots and gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 81 54 82 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 50 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

467
FXUS64 KMRX 220652
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
252 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in
the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing moisture and instability this weekend with likely
chances of showers and possibly storms, especially Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with
potential for some strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

An mid/upper level short-wave will move across the upper Ohio valley
into the central Appalachians later tonight into Wednesday. This
wave will produce an area of convection that may approach southwest
Virginia Wednesday. However, at this time, the dynamics and moisture
look likely to stay to our north with surface ridging holding over
our area, so dry conditions are anticipated to persist. Fire weather
concerns will continue to be elevated with low afternoon relative
humidity values in the 20s common across the area, and afternoon
winds will generally be in the 5 to 15 mph range with the higher
values across the north along with some higher gusts.

For Thursday and Friday, an upper ridge will build over the area
producing mostly dry and unseasonably warm conditions. High
temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal both days. Low
afternoon relative humidity values will continue with values mainly
in the 20s and 30s.

For Friday night through Saturday, a northern stream short wave over
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region and a southern stream wave moving
across the Gulf coast states will flatten out the upper ridge, but
models generally indicate limited phasing with these waves and
instability and dynamics look limited for our area. Some showers
and possibly thunderstorms can be expected Friday night into
Saturday, but confidence is low on QPF amounts. Current QPF shows
around a quarter to three quarters of an inch of rainfall, but
ensemble data suggests it may be less.

Another wave will move into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians early next week, bringing another chance for showers
and thunderstorms sometime in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Models
indicate the dynamics are likely to be stronger with this system,
and it may tap into Gulf moisture as well. Ensemble joint
probabilities of CAPE and Shear currently suggest a greater threat
of strong to severe storms with this system. Models still do not
agree on details such as timing, but this will bear watching as we
get closer and the details become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The area will be situated under high pressure to the SE and a
disturbance moving overhead to our north. A pressure gradient will
create westerly winds and gusts, primarily the strongest at TRI
later this afternoon. Prior to, a LLJ may create LLWS conditions
at TRI the next few hours. Otherwise, dry weather, VFR, and either
SKC or high clouds expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 55 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 53 83 56 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 82 52 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 46 80 52 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

543
FXUS64 KMRX 221901
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 252 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in
the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday
night into Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with
potential for some strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A mid/upr level shortwave is currently progressing into the central Appalachians this afternoon. Associated precipitation will remain
just to our north and east, with just an increase in mid-level
clouds occurring across southwest Virginia. Main impact is the FDS
that goes through the afternoon due to expected breezy conditions
and low afternoon RH. The best alignment of strongest gusts and
lowest RH are expected in far NE TN and SW VA.

An upper ridge and sfc high pressure takes greater control tomorrow.
While low afternoon humidity is expected once more, winds will be
light. Plenty of sunshine will accompany well above normal
temperatures. A slight improvement in RH is expected Friday as
southwesterly winds increase moisture advection ahead of a northern
stream trough spreading into the western Great Lakes and a southern
stream wave translating across the Gulf.

An associated cold front will increase the chance for showers and
and storms as we head into Saturday. Latest NAM solution depicts a
diminishing LLJ as convection spreads into our region, which will
help limit availability instability as well as low-level shear. GFS probabilities of CAPE greater 500 J/kg range from 40-70%, but when
looking at probabilities of greater than 1000J/kg probabilities
sharply fall to 30% or lower. The most likely solution for Saturday
seems to be general showers and thunderstorms, but we will continue
to monitor as hi-res models become available.

A more amplified system is expected to bring another round of
showers and storms late Monday night into Tuesday. Long range
guidance suggest the more dynamic system will have better potential
for LLJ to tap into Gulf moisture while persisting in strength as it
swing through the Tennessee Valley. This leads to greater joint
probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30kts relative to
the weekend system. Though the best severe chances still look to be
to our south and west, this system will bear watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions persist. Wind gusts around 15kts, up to 25kts at
TRI, will continue for a few more hours this afternoon. Winds will
calm in diurnal fashion this evening but increasing high pressure
influence will keep winds light tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 51 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

961
FXUS64 KMRX 230710
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
310 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
Friday. Low afternoon relative humidity each day with values in
the 20s and 30s expected.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday
night into Saturday.

- Another round of storms anticipated early next week, with
potential for some strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Surface high pressure will remain over the area and an upper ridge
will be building in today, providing plenty of sunshine and a very
warm afternoon. For fire weather concerns, relative humidity values
will be quite low again today, with values in the 20s across much of
the area, but winds will be lighter than yesterday. Slight
improvement in minimum RH is expected Friday although values will
still be low, and southwesterly winds pick up to around 10 mph
across much of the area.

The ridge flattens out Friday night into Saturday as short wave
energy moves into the Great Lakes Region while a weaker southern
stream wave approaches our area from the west. An associated weak
cold front will be pushed through our area Saturday. Models do not
agree on the details with this system, but most generally agree that
little or no phasing of the waves occurs and dynamics will not be
strong for our area. Given the poor model run to run consistency and
agreement and the fact that this is expected model behavior with
these types of weaker and somewhat chaotic scenarios, it is best not
to get too caught up in the details until we get closer. However,
right now ensemble data suggests that CAPE will be limited and shear
generally weak. Ensemble joint probabilities for SBCAPE > 500 J/kg
and 0-500mb bulk shear > 30kts is generally around or less than 15%
for our area, and using MUCAPE produces only slightly higher
results. There is still time for things to change, but right now it
appears that while a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, the
probability of severe storms is quite low for Friday night into
Saturday. Current total QPF shows around a quarter to three quarters
of an inch of rainfall with this system.

There is potential for a more significant system to bring another
round of showers and storms early in the week, with the highest
chance Monday night into Tuesday. Guidance suggests this more
dynamic system will have better potential for a stronger LLJ that
will tap into Gulf moisture. This leads to significantly greater
joint probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg and bulk shear > 30kts
relative to the weekend system. Right now the higher severe chances
still look to be to our south and west, but this system will bear
watching.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Clear and calm overnight under high pressure. Dry and mostly sunny
skies during the day with light W to SW winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 57 85 63 / 0 0 10 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 56 83 60 / 10 0 10 70
Oak Ridge, TN 83 54 83 60 / 0 0 10 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 50 81 57 / 0 0 10 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

474
FXUS64 KMRX 231847
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday,
along with another day of low afternoon relative humidity.

- Increasing chances of showers and possibly storms late Friday
night into Saturday. Severe weather does not seem likely.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated early next week,
with at least some potential for some strong to severe storms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Calm, clear, and mild tonight with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
With high pressured centered over the region, Friday temps will be
continue to be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Most areas stay dry but some isolated diurnal convection
is possible across the east TN mountains and Cumberland Plateau
during the afternoon hours.

Friday night into Saturday, precip chances sharply on the rise as a
shortwave and frontal boundary approach and move through the area.
Most areas should see some rainfall at some point during this
timeframe. Average QPF amounts will likely range between 0.25 and
0.75 inches. Some low-end/moderate instability is expected but with
very weak shear in place, do not anticipate any severe weather at
this time. With the rain and clouds around, temps will be cooler and
in the mid 70s for most places. Rain and storms exit east Saturday
night as the short wave pushes east into the Carolinas.

A short stint of high pressure returns Saturday night into Sunday
ahead of our next system. This should keep us mostly dry on Sunday
with temps climbing back into the upper 70s to low 80s.


Most models try and hold on to ridging for Monday, which would keep
us mostly dry and still unseasonably warm. By Monday night/Tuesday
morning however, rain and storms are likely to move in just ahead of
a cold front. The timing isn't overly conducive to severe weather
but there is a low-end risk in place at the moment. Looking at LREF
joint probabilities of at least 500 J/kg CAPE and 30 kts of bulk
shear, 40 to 60% probs are in place across the Cumberland Plateau.
These probs quickly diminish as you go east into the central valley.
Higher probs exist further west, closer to Nashville. This aligns
well with SPC day 5 outlook where the eastern edge of the 15% risk
area stops in middle TN. We will continue to keep an eye on things,
as a shift in timing will increase/decrease our threat. Aside from
any severe weather, mountain winds look gusty as the 850mb winds
ramp up to around 30 to 40 kts ahead of the front. Wind gusts in the
mountains could be as high as 40 mph. With the prior rain on
Saturday, and additional rain Monday night/Tuesday, these high winds
shouldn't be of too much of a concern fire weather-wise.


The rest of the period will remain unsettled with mostly zonal flow
in place behind the cold front. This zonal flow will keep the door
open for additional systems to move into our area from the west.

With several systems set to move thorugh our area over the next 7
days, probs of at least 1" of rainfall are quite high for most areas
at around 80 to 90%. Probs of at least 1" are a little lower though
across northeast TN and southwest VA, at around 50 to 70% chance.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light
southerly to southwesterly winds, generally less than 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 85 63 80 / 0 10 70 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 83 60 76 / 0 20 60 90
Oak Ridge, TN 54 83 60 76 / 0 20 70 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 80 56 72 / 0 10 30 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

501
FXUS64 KMRX 241057
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
657 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 647 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Isolated mountain showers today, more widespread rain and
scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into
Tuesday, with low potential for some strong to severe storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Rain chances will finally begin to pick up beginning today. The
incoming shortwave is still a day out, so forcing will be weak to
nonexistent, but enough CAPE underneath a 500 mb inversion should
allow for terrain forced showers to develop this afternoon, mainly
in the mountains along the NC border, but I could see an isolated
shower in the Plateau region as well. Won't rule out a lightning
strike, but the inversion digs in right around the -10C layer, so
storm depth into the favored ice crystal zones will be limited.

Shortwave riding in the westerly flow will really start to arrive
for Saturday, unfortunately for those with outdoor activities
planned. CAMs have been all over the place with how this unfolds,
but generally a few steady rain showers will be likely in the mid to
late morning hours. Then in the afternoon with the presence of the
weak trough, the atmosphere really becomes favorable for scattered thunderstorms. There's some shear present, primarily speed shear, so
a strong thunderstorm with breezy winds and small hail is a
potential. Otherwise much needed rainfall will fall.

Sunday looks to be mainly a drying out day. Guidance has thin CAPE
profiles, and with the suppressive midlevel ridge building back in,
expect dry to mostly dry weather. The next shortwave will be moving
across the upper tier of the country to start the week, with a
punching subtropical jet extending across the Southern Plains. This
is the focus of the SPC's extended outlook for Monday, with a large
risk to our west. We're likely to get the sloppy seconds of whatever
comes of that system, which in part depends on what occurs Sunday
over the Southern Plains. Shear, especially low level shear, will be
favorable for strong to severe, but timing is once again aiming to
be in the evening or nighttime hours.

Beyond Tuesday morning, the subtropical jet enhancing westerlies
will stay dominant through the week, possibly coupled with a slow
moving frontal boundary, presenting our region with an unsettled
pattern and keeping low to medium chances for rain in the for the
remainder of the work week. Over the course of the next 7 days, 1
inch probabilities are fairly high area wide, and 2 inch
probabilities are 20% Tri Cities, 40% Knoxville, 60% Chattanooga. If
the heavier amounts can come to fruition that would be very
beneficial for fighting the drought.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Winds will increase from a westerly to southwesterly direction
with increasing clouds around 10,000 feet AGL. Some gusts are
possible, but winds will be fairly light overall. Heading into
tonight, rain chances will increase from the west, but rain was
left out of the TAFs as any potential impacts would likely be
after the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 62 78 57 / 10 70 90 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 60 73 54 / 10 50 100 20
Oak Ridge, TN 83 60 73 54 / 10 60 90 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 55 71 51 / 10 20 90 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

917
FXUS64 KMRX 241835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Isolated mountain showers this afternoon, more widespread rain and
scattered thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into
Tuesday, with low potential for some strong to severe storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Currently, terrain based showers have developed. Meso-analysis shows
limited instability with CAPE 250 or less so will keep only showers
in the forecast.

For Saturday, a short-wave with RRQ upper-level divergence will move
across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. A band of
showers will initially move into the region in the morning hours.
SPC HREF and deterministic models show increasing instability in the
afternoon with ensemble mean CAPES of 750-1000. A broken line of
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. Convective activity will
dissipate around sunset.

For Sunday, short-wave moves east with subsidence behind the system
and building upper ridge producing a 700mb capping inversion. Only
orographic lift over the far east Tennessee mountains will produce
scattered terrain convection. Most locations will be dry and warm.

For Monday, upper ridging will continue to build over the area with
tightening pressure gradient as surface ridging moves east into
the Carolinas. A breezy and very warm day is on tap.

For Monday night through Wednesday, a series of northern and
southern stream waves will produce an unsettled weather pattern.
Confidence is low on how these series of systems will develop and
how phasing is expected. There is a chance of severe storms during
this period and will be monitored for later updates.

For Thursday and Friday, northwest flow aloft will be the dominant
weather story with waves rotating down in this flow possibliy
producing showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Main forecast aviation concern is the incoming band of convection
for Saturday morning. Limited instability in the morning so
thunder chances are low but increasing in the afternoon.

Otherwise, tightening pressure gradients this afternoon will be
gusts in excess of 15+ knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 76 57 83 / 60 90 30 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 72 55 79 / 30 100 40 20
Oak Ridge, TN 59 74 54 80 / 40 90 30 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 74 54 75 / 10 90 60 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

381
FXUS64 KMRX 251055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Scattered rain showers this morning and scattered thunderstorms
this afternoon.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday into
Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
week. Medium to high rain chances on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

With the arrival of a weak shortwave today expecting weak showers
this morning followed by a few scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon, in both the mountains and valley. Been curiously watching
the CAMs flip flop run to run on extent of both the morning showers
and afternoon storms, so I vote for the most widespread rain as
Nature wants to bestow upon us, given the drought. Given the
uncertainty even in the near term spread of guidance, wouldn't be
expecting constant rain all day, a few periods of rain and scattered
storms is a more reasonable expectation. Unfortunately this means
there's bust potential for those who miss out on rain. Fortunately
this isn't the last batch of rain.

With Sunday likely to be dry, we look towards next week for
additional rain chances. Monday night has continued to look
unimpressive, with the AI-IFS guidance indicating a really late
overnight into Tuesday morning arrival times for storms. Long range
NAM has a steep surface inversion should storms arrive that late,
which would significantly alter storm severity and hazard type,
though elevated strong convection could still occur. Still, given
the breadth of convective solutions, it's really just a monitor and
see on timing and CAPE profiles.

Heading into the midweek the upper jet re-strengthens and a slowly
sagging cold front are likely to spur additional convection on
Wednesday. The good news is multiple opportunities should eventually
stack up and lead to decent rainfall results across a wide portion
of the region, even if not every person scores in every round. The
swiss cheese model of trying to escape drought via multiple rounds
of scattered thunderstorms. Even at the end of next week there's
potential for a southern low to go riding along the southeastern
front, yielding continued unsettled weather even if we're on the
north side of the front by then. The longwave trough helping to push
the front south also means cooler weather by the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Increasing rain chances are expected throughout the day with
showers and storms developing in the afternoon hours. Outside of
rain, VFR is expected to persist with MVFR or less likely within
rain showers. Winds will be pretty light and from generally a
southwesterly direction. Rain coverage will decrease overnight
with fog possible in places that receive more rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 76 58 83 58 / 80 30 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 55 80 55 / 70 30 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 81 55 / 70 20 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 52 77 48 / 80 30 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

187
FXUS64 KMRX 251750
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
150 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Warm weather to continue through the next 7 days.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- Another round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday
into Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms.

- Low to medium rain chances to continue through much of next
week. Medium to high rain chances on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Regional radar and satellite imagery shows plenty off low and mid
clouds still around East Tennessee with embedded scattered rain
showers ongoing. Further west however, convective coverage is
increasing fairly rapidly, with some thunder being noted in the
southern Cumberland plateau already. Most of the high resolution
guidance favors additional development in the southern parts of
Middle Tennessee this afternoon in an area of relatively lower
pressure and surface convergence as noted on satellite imagery.
These solutions then show that activity then transitioning ESE
into the southern half of the Tennessee valley into the late
afternoon and evening hours. This seems reasonable to me, but the
current trends also suggest that maintaining rain chances area
wide through late this evening is a reasonable approach too. This
is what the NBM output

Rain chances wrap up tonight, with ridging building overhead on
Sunday into Monday. Expect dry conditions during this time. By
Monday afternoon however, strong cyclogenesis will be occurring in
the upper midwest. This system will push a front through our area
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The overnight arrival time and
the stronger dynamics being displaced to our northwest suggest the
severe threat with this system is not very high for our area. Will
continue to monitor for now, but if these trends in timing,
thermodynamic profiles, etc, continue then the severe threat looks
quite low.

Heading into the midweek the upper jet re-strengthens and a slowly
sagging cold front are likely to spur additional convection on
Wednesday. The good news is multiple opportunities should eventually
stack up and lead to decent rainfall results across a wide portion
of the region, even if not every person scores in every round. The
swiss cheese model of trying to escape drought via multiple rounds
of scattered thunderstorms. Even at the end of next week there's
potential for a southern low to go riding along the southeastern
front, yielding continued unsettled weather even if we're on the
north side of the front by then. The longwave trough helping to push
the front south also means cooler weather by the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

SHRA and TSRA coverage will increase through the afternoon and
evening hours. Will maintain a TEMPO for those conditions at all
terminals to account for this. Winds should remain light through
the period, with variable direction this afternoon becoming
steady northerly this evening and overnight. Fog development
tonight seems likely but confidence in how widespread and how
dense it becomes is not particularly high. KTRI probably has the
best chance for calm winds and fog development, but it could occur
anywhere.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 83 59 82 / 20 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 81 56 83 / 20 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 53 82 56 83 / 10 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 79 49 80 / 30 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

512
FXUS64 KMRX 260655
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 255 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Fog is present this morning, be aware of patchy dense fog
significantly reducing visibilities.

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated early Tuesday, with
low potential for strong storms.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms likely on Wednesday.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather
arriving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Thanks to the earlier rain showers, fog has formed, with nighttime microphysics imagery and airport observations indicating valley fog
has already formed across portions of northern Tennessee into
southwestern Virginia. Where fog is currently prevalent, a Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect. Fog is still possible elsewhere in East
Tennessee and southwest North Carolina, especially in fog prone
locations such as the I-75 corridor near Cleveland.

With the shortwave departing, the midlevel ridge builds back in and
will yield a dry Sunday. Monday is also likely to be dry, as classic
physics based guidance has moved into alignment with the AI-IFS on
pushing off showers and thunderstorms into early Tuesday.
Fortunately the parent surface low will be ejecting to the far
western Great Lakes with this system, keeping a lot of the better
dynamics far to our west. A few strong storms may be possible,
depending on how much CAPE, especially elevated CAPE, can be
realized Tuesday morning. Guidance continues to indicate a stout
inversion between the surface and at least the first km of
atmosphere, so despite the LLJ ramping with storm arrival, not
expecting a tornado threat.

Heading into Wednesday a weaker vorticity lobe in the larger upper
trough over the western Great Lakes will be swinging around, and
coupled with the re-strengthening westerly jet will help fire
another round of showers and thunderstorms. This second system
should result in a cold front pushing from north to south through
Tennessee by Thursday. This airmass change will yield cooler weather thereafter through the weekend. Will have to watch morning
temperatures, guidance is indicating 20-40% chance for frost
friendly temperatures next weekend across northeastern Tennessee
into southwestern Virginia. High uncertainty by next weekend on
whether or not we see any rain by then or a dry spell for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

After recent rainfall, fog has been expanding across the region.
TRI has already seen IFR to LIFR with CHA and TYS expected to see
reductions in the coming hours. MVFR will likely be more common at
these sites, but IFR to even LIFR is possible. After morning fog,
improvements back to VFR are expected. Northeasterly winds and
decreasing cloud cover will continue through the day with no rain
expected at the sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 55 83 58 / 0 0 0 60
Oak Ridge, TN 80 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 77 48 80 52 / 0 0 0 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Marion-Morgan-
Scott TN-Sequatchie-Union.

VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-
Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

867
FXUS64 KMRX 261741
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
141 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated early Tuesday, with
low potential for strong storms.

- An additional round of showers and thunderstorms likely early
Wednesday morning. While chances for severe storms are slightly
higher than Monday night, the overall likelihood of severe
storms remains low.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather
arriving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The main takeaway for the coming week is that we are likely to see
multiple rounds of widespread, and much needed, rainfall across the
entirety of the NWS Morristown forecast area. There could also be
some chances for some severe storms mixed in, mainly Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, but confidence remains low overall.

An upper trough and associated surface low will lift northeast
through the upper midwest on Monday, dragging a front towards East
Tennessee Monday night into Tuesday morning. Showers associated with
this feature arrive in our CWA around or shortly after daybreak
Tuesday morning. I don't believe there to be much support for any
severe storms with this activity. Depending on which model sounding
you look at, there's some elevated instability that could support
thunder and possibly some small hail. But that is about it,
and there's a substantial low level inversion in place so surface-
based convection seems highly unlikely and thus negates any notable
threat of damaging winds or other hazards.

The aforementioned front will stall out just to our west on Tuesday.
However it will eventually be pushed through our CWA early Wednesday
by a trailing upper disturbance that moves through the greater
Tennessee river valley in the westerly flow aloft Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. This disturbance will be aided by a strengthening subtropical jet over the I-40 corridor between Arkansas and New
Mexico, firing off another round of convection across Middle
Tennessee Tuesday night that will push into our forecast area
during the morning hours on Wednesday. Once again the early morning
hour arrival time doesn't favor severe chances overall. However the
low level inversion is much weaker Tue night and forecast soundings
do show better shear and slightly more instability, including some
noteworthy DCAPE on the order of a few hundred J/kg in the
Chattanooga area. The current SPC Day 3 Outlook has a Slight Risk
area that extends east into our Cumberland Plateau areas and parts
of the southern TN valley in East Tennessee. Despite the overnight
arrival this seems reasonable, with models favoring a damaging wind
threat should any severe storms occur.

Behind the front, cooler temperatures are on tap through the
weekend. Temperatures could drop low enough for there to be some
frost potential by next weekend in our far northeast Tennessee and southwestern Virginia counties. It is possible we see another
round of rain next weekend, but there is a high degree of
uncertainty there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

All sites should see a return to VFR flight categories in the next
hour or two, either by CIGS lifting or scattering out. By late this
afternoon SKC to FEW250 should be the rule. No fog or low clouds are
expected tonight. With regards to winds, expect gusty winds to
around 15kt to continue at KTYS for another couple of hours
before gradients relax. Otherwise, light and variable conditions are
expected at KTYS and KTRI. Similar conditions will be seen at KCHA
but high pressure east of the Appalchians will switch the winds to a
sustained SELY direction later tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 81 60 77 / 0 0 60 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 83 57 75 / 0 0 60 70
Oak Ridge, TN 54 82 57 75 / 0 0 70 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 80 52 72 / 0 0 40 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

631
FXUS64 KMRX 270646
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Next round of showers and storms anticipated late Monday night
into early Tuesday, with low potential for strong storms. Gusty
winds in the foothills and portions of the Plateau are likely.

- An additional round of showers and thunderstorms likely late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low potential again for strong to
severe storms.

- Low rain chances Thursday into next weekend, with cooler weather
arriving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

At least two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next three days, primarily late tonight into Tuesday morning,
and again late Tuesday night into Wednesday. These should give
healthy amounts of rainfall to much of the region. Environment does
not look overly favorable for severe weather tonight, though we'll
watch it anyways. Late timing arrival for storms, likely past
midnight, means a stout inversion will be allowed to set up. There's
still plenty of MUCAPE available for thunderstorms, but not
confident we'll see a significant threat beyond small hail, gusty
winds, and lightning. Winds on the Plateau, especially northern
Plateau, may be gusting to near wind advisory criteria in advance of
the storms, as winds just above the surface will be 40 knots. Any
strong convective downdraft can also grab a hold of this low level
jet. Meanwhile a strong temperature gradient is likely to fuel
strong winds in the mountain wave prone foothills, with gusts to 40
mph possible.

Second disturbance will bring a second round of showers and
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday along with the cold
front, effecting an airmass change in our area. Once more will have
to watch for strong thunderstorms during this period, although the
LLJ is weaker for this second round of storms. Effective shear is
still strong enough to be favorable for storms, the biggest question
is still the CAPE profile and lapse rates. Current soundings
indicate rather poor lapse rates and low CAPE, likely a big limit
for severe potential. The ideal solution is we get widespread
beneficial rainfall.

Post front, we'll trend a little cooler, with still the potential
for frost each morning from Friday into the weekend in cooler spots
of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. We've also been
trending steadily drier Thursday and onwards, with guidance
indicating large mature troughs far to our north, and active weather
along the Gulf coast, keeping us stuck in the middle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Quiet aviation conditions are expected for the rest of the night
and into the morning hours with light winds and limited cloud
cover. Fog is possible in some areas, but the probability is
limited regarding development at the TAF sites. Throughout the
day, southerly to southeasterly winds will increase with gusts
near 20 kts possible at CHA. Winds will likely continue into the
first part of the night ahead of potential showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 59 78 64 / 0 60 70 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 57 77 62 / 0 60 70 90
Oak Ridge, TN 82 56 76 62 / 0 60 70 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 52 74 57 / 0 60 70 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

291
FXUS64 KMRX 271834
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late tonight/early
Tuesday morning. Isolated strong/severe storm possible mainly
Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Main threat will be strong and
gusty winds.

- Windy conditions for the far east Tennessee mountains/foothills
tonight/early Tuesday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph possible.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Potential of strong to severe storms but timing,
intensity, and extent of the severe thunderstorms remain low.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through
Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Currently, a wedge of high pressure across the eastern seaboard is
slowly pulling drier low-level moisture into east Tennessee,
southwest Virginia, southwest North Carolina. Latest HREF/HRRR model
shows dewpoints dropping into the 40s to lower 50s this evening with
some upper 30s possible over southwest Virginia.

This wedging will east of the Appalachians and low pressure over the mid-west/upper Ohio valley will produce fairly tight pressure
gradients overnight. As the low-level inversion estabilishes itself
this evening. HREF and HRRR shows mountain wave winds developing
with southeast winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
mph possible. A wind advisory has been issued.

Upper divergence will move across the region with strong convection
over the mid-west/western Ohio valley moving east southeast into the
Tennessee valley overnight/early Tuesday morning. This line of
convection will weaken as it moves into the more stable airmass over
the area. However, mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 degrees C will
produce elevated instability allowing for the threat of strong to
severe storms over the Plateau and southeast Tennessee early Tuesday
morning. Main concern will be damaging winds and small hail.

For Tuesday, post short-wave subsidence and developing mid-level cap
will limit convection much of the day. Morning clouds will give way
to more sun in the afternoon.

For Tuesday night, a stronger short-wave and upper jet will produce
good synoptic forcing. Depending on how the airmass can destabilize
ahead of the next system and return flow of southerly winds, a great
threat of severe storms is expected especially for the Plateau and
southeast Tennessee. Main concern will be damaging winds and large
hail.

For Wednesday, there is another potential of severe storms as
frontal boundary will be across the region during the day. Depending
on how much breaks in the clouds, ensembles and latest deterministic
runs show mid-level lapses rates of 7+ degree/C, decent hail growth
CAPE, and effective bulk shear of 40-50 knots to produce
strong/severe storms. Shear and Instability show the greatest
potential of organized severe storms, but confidence remains low of
the intensity and extent of the thunderstorms but will monitor
closely.

For Thursday and part of Friday, surface ridging will produce drier conditions.

For the later half of Friday through Saturday, ensembles and
deterministic models are becoming in better agreement with a
southern stream wave moving across the Gulf Coast states and
Tennessee valley. Strong jet dynamics will produce widespread/much
needed rainfall across the southeast United States, possibly into
the Tennessee valley/southern Appalachians as well. Surface low will
move well south of the region with little to no instability. Expect
mainly shower activity.

Surface ridging and drier conditions for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Main Aviation Forecast concern is the expected showers and
thunderstorms for early Tuesday morning. Some of these storms
could produce strong and gusty winds. Otherwise, as the line of
convection moves across the region ceiling will drop to marginal
MVFR conditions from 10-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 77 64 80 / 60 60 100 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 76 61 76 / 60 60 90 100
Oak Ridge, TN 57 75 60 76 / 70 60 90 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 73 58 71 / 60 70 80 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

064
FXUS64 KMRX 280628
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late
tonight/early Tuesday morning. Isolated strong/severe storm possible
mainly Plateau and southeast Tennessee. Main threat will be strong
and gusty winds.

- Windy conditions for the far east Tennessee mountains/foothills tonight/early Tuesday morning. Gusts up to 50 mph possible.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms likely late Tuesday evening
into Wednesday. Potential of strong to severe storms but timing,
intensity, and extent of the severe thunderstorms remain low.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through
Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the East Coast tonight as a
shortwave moves through the Great Lakes. Nearly zonal flow will be
over the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, a low is moving through
the Great Lakes with a cold front currently over Illinois into
Missouri and Arkansas. A line of showers and storms is along and
ahead of this front. Scattered storms have developed over Middle
Tennessee. CAM guidance has these storms forming a line and falling
apart as it moves into the region. Still some strong to severe
storms will be possible mainly in the Plateau counties and Southern
Tennessee Valley. Gusty winds will be the primary threat as the line
moves through the region late tonight into the early morning hours.

With southerly winds increasing overnight, downslope wind
enhancement is expected in the East Tennessee mountains and
foothills with gusts up to 50 mph expected in downslope prone spots.
Winds will peak overnight and begin decreasing by daybreak. 850 mb
winds will peak around 40 to 45 knots in the Tennessee Valley. Cold
air damming on the North Carolina side of the mountains is enhancing
the pressure gradient between the Tennessee Valley and the North
Carolina mountains and will increase downslope potential to the
Tennessee foothills.

Rain will clear out Tuesday morning as the cold front remains well
to our west. Another round of showers and storms will move into the
region Tuesday evening as a weak low develops in the South. In the
upper levels, a shortwave will move through the pattern Tuesday
evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible mainly in
the Plateau counties and the southern/central Tennessee Valley.
Timing around 8pm to midnight is the best chance for some stronger
storms producing gusty winds. Forecast soundings suggest that
capping maybe a limiting factor.

Showers and storms are possible through the day Wednesday as the
weak low moves through the Southeast. With good effective shear and
decent instability expected on Wednesday, we will have to monitor
for severe potential. By Wednesday evening or night, rain will clear
out as the front moves through with a cooler, drier air mass
expected by Thursday.

Friday night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through
the Southeast bringing widespread showers and rain. With low
instability expected, thunder will be minimal if any. Sunday looks
dry. Temperatures will be cooler this week with highs in the 60s and
70s. The coolest day will be Saturday with highs in the lower 60s
for most of the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Showers and storms will move into the region over the next several
hours with LLWS currently expected in CHA and TYS. During the
storms, strong winds are possible, along with quick reductions to
MVFR or less, mainly from 09Z to 13Z. MVFR conditions will
continue through much of the morning as rain coverage decreases.
Improvements are expected later in the day with continued
southwesterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 64 80 54 / 60 90 90 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 61 76 52 / 50 90 100 30
Oak Ridge, TN 77 61 77 51 / 50 80 100 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 58 72 48 / 60 80 100 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

182
FXUS64 KMRX 282259
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms try to move in this evening
and tonight. Low potential of strong to severe storms, but the
threat cannot be completely ruled out.

- Wednesday morning and possibly again in the afternoon/evening will
see another round of isolated thunderstorms that could bring gusty
winds and hail.

- Another round of mainly rain showers expected Friday through
Saturday. Thunder chances are quite low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Morgan, Scott (TN),
Bledsoe and Sequatchie Counties until 2 AM. A cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms is moving into Middle Tennessee shortly. This
cluster is expected to weaken as it moves into East Tennessee but
there is a chance that the watch may need to be extended eastward
slightly. Timing for the Plateau counties looks to be around 10PM
to midnight. The main threat will be damaging winds if storms can
hold together. Will update with mesoanalysis as storms move
closer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Discussion:

Currently storms have moved well to our south and well to our east,
but are still currently ongoing. This long line of storms is likely
going to influence the atmosphere tonight, so it's worth keeping an
eye on as it's likely inhibiting the atmosphere from recovering and destabilizing. North of this line expect more minor/moderate
destabilization this afternoon into this evening. This hopefully
looks to limit the severe thunderstorm chances this evening/tonight.
Cannot completely say we're in the clear, as we'll have to see how
strong storms to our west (Currently over Arkansas) maintain
strength as they move further east. If they have strong forward
momentum they could bring their own dynamics as they move towards
the Cumberland Plateau. However at this time its looking
increasingly likely that the airmass over the eastern Tennessee
Valley remains fairly stable and really squashes severe convection.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a potentially interesting day with
more synoptic and jet dynamics likely in play in our area. Mid level
jet starts to nose into the region tomorrow and along with it we'll
see an increase in lapse rates, especially in the afternoon as they
climb to 6.5-7.0C/km. The jets also bring with them some very dry
mid level air which dramatically increases the DCAPE as we approach
the afternoon hours. So there are 2 main timeframe for storms on
Wednesday.

1. Wednesday morning around sunrise in northeast TN and southwest VA
as the remnants of overnight storms get affected by better jet and
dynamic forcing they could reinvigorate causing a brief window of
strong storms

2. Later in the day as we destabilize and have stronger forcing
overhead we could see isolated storms develop. These afternoon
storms could bring strong downburst winds and quarter size hail.
This afternoon window is pretty brief, with the highest chances to
see strong storms around 18-22z (4-8pm EDT).

A few lingering showers are possible later in the evening, but the
majority of people will remain rain-free most of the night. Friday
night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through the s
southeast bringing widespread showers and rain. With low instability
expected, thunder will be minimal if any. Sunday looks dry.
Temperatures will be cooler this week with highs in the 60s and 70s.
The coolest day will be Saturday with highs in the lower 60s for
most of the Tennessee Valley.

Yet another front will make a dive at the region early next week
which could be the trigger for another round of showers and
thunderstorms.

With several systems and rain events expected temperatures will stay
fairly moderate for the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Breezy south to southwest winds will persist over the next few
hours. Recent satellite trends suggest a higher probability that CHA
remains socked into MVFR conditions. There is potential the cloud
deck lifts enough for a few hours of low VFR conditions this
evening, but confidence is low. MVFR cigs are expected to return to
the region alongside increasing chances for rain tonight. Scattered
showers and potentially a few isolated thunderstorms will develop
again tomorrow afternoon, especially for TYS/TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 80 55 72 / 90 60 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 76 52 68 / 90 80 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 61 77 50 69 / 90 80 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 72 48 65 / 80 90 40 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...McD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

817
FXUS64 KMRX 290627
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight and into the
morning hours. The potential for severe storms is very low overnight.

- Wednesday afternoon and early evening scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are expected. A few may be strong to severe
with gusty winds and hail mainly in Northeast Tennessee and
Southwest Virginia.

- Rain chances are on a downward trend for the system Friday night
into Saturday as the low shifts farther south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Strong storms over Middle Tennessee this evening dissipated before
reaching East Tennessee. Currently, low pressure at the surface is
centered near Northeast Arkansas with a frontal boundary extending
north and east along the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Strong to
severe storms are over Northern Mississippi. The cold front well to
the west in western Arkansas. In the upper levels, a ridge remains
over the East Coast tonight. A weak shortwave is moving through the
Southeast tonight. CAPE is very low in Middle and East Tennessee.
HREF guidance has CAPE staying below 100 J/kg overnight. Potential
for severe storms will be very low overnight. Showers and storms or
a batch of rain with embedded thunder will move through the region
overnight and lingering into the morning hours.

By early afternoon on Wednesday, nearly zonal flow will be over the
region in the upper levels and the surface low will be near OH/PA. A
cold front will move through the region in the late afternoon or
early evening hours bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms especially in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest
Virginia. A few strong to severe storms are possible ahead of that
front mainly in Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia but
overall the threat is low. Damaging winds and hail around one inch
(quarter) size will be possible with good dynamics in place,
synoptic forcing, CAPE 500-1000 J/kg and Effective shear around 40
knots. The window for strong storms will be brief from about 3 PM
EDT to 7 PM EDT.

By late Wednesday evening or night, rain will clear out as the front
moves through with a cooler, drier air mass expected by Thursday.

Friday night into Saturday, another low is expected to move through
the Southeast. Rain chances are on a downward trend with the low now
projected to track farther south closer to the Gulf. Sunday looks
dry. Early next week looks mostly dry with low rain chances and high
pressure over the Southeast. Temperatures will be cooler with highs
mainly in the 60s starting Thursday through the weekend. The coolest
day will be Saturday with highs in the 60s for all of the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Reductions are already ongoing at CHA and TRI and are expected to
continue for the rest of the night into the morning hours. Rain
with isolated lightning strikes is approaching from the west and
will produce further reductions at CHA with TYs expected to reach
MVFR in the coming hours. This initial rain will move out of CHA
and TYS by after sunrise with slow improvements back to VFR into
the early afternoon. Additional showers and storms are expected to
develop with the best coverage being around TRI. Reductions to at
least MVFR are expected within showers and storms. Also, westerly
winds will increase through the day with gusts above 20 kts likely
by the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 53 72 52 / 70 10 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 50 68 47 / 70 10 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 77 49 69 47 / 70 10 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 47 65 41 / 90 20 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

648
FXUS64 KMRX 291809
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
209 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over
the next few hours. A few may be strong to severe with gusty
winds and hail the main hazard.

- Rain chances are on a downward trend for the system Friday night into
Saturday as the low shifts farther south.

- Overall, near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected
through the weekend. Portions of the area may see temperatures
favorable for frost Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A southwest to northwest wind shift can be noted among surface
observations as a cold front is advecting through central TN/KY.
Latest satellite imagery shows minor to pockets of moderate clearing
across our CWA ahead of this front. SPC meso and CAMs continue to
show agreement in MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg, lapse rates near 6.5-
7.0degC, and DCAPE near 800J/kg as additional scattered activity is
expected to swing across the area. This is all alongside effective
shear near 50kts. Ideally would have liked to see a little bit
better clearing for higher confidence in strong to severe, and
the slower clearing may be resulting in more of a narrow time
window for potential isolated severe - perhaps between 3-6pm, but
still believe the potential for a few stronger storms is there.
One interesting trend to note in the CAMs is an uptick in
convective intensity as the activity approaches the mountains,
suggesting local topography may be what is needed to overcome the
lack of upper level lift. With the strong thermo profile, winds
and hail will be of primary concern with the strongest activity. Unidirectional shear profiles will minimize the threat of any
spin-ups, but cannot say it is zero.

For Thursday and Friday, quasi-zonal flow aloft will promote mostly
dry conditions with near seasonable temperatures. There will be a
vort max advecting through the mid-west with an additional shortwave translating across the southern plains Friday. While a non-impactful
shower cannot be totally ruled out across our CWA fringes, the main
impact will be increasing clouds.

These synoptic features will promote a trough axis swinging through
the area late Friday night/early Saturday morning and through the
day Saturday. We will see a return of precip chances during this
time frame, especially for areas along and east of an imaginary line
from CHA to TRI, in closer proximity to a southwesterly H5 jet core
near 75-85kts across the Carolinas. High pressure builds into the
region Sunday as drier and cooler conditions end the weekend.
Depending on how quickly clouds clear out Saturday night, there is
potential for temperatures supportive of areas of frost in portions
of northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia Sunday morning.

Reinforcement of the eastern CONUS trough is expected in the Mon/Tue
time frame. A frontal boundary moving southward through the Ohio
Valley will bring a return of shower/storm chances but weaker upper
forcing suggest no standout threat of strong/svr during this time
frame. A brief dry period is expected mid-week before a more
pronounced trough brings additional showers and storms in the Wed
Night/Thu time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Low VFR to MVFR conditions will continue over the next few hours
as a cold front begins traverses the region. Most likely time to
have a potential shower or storm impact a terminal has been
covered with prob30s, with the best chance for lightning activity
at TYS/TRI. Predominant VFR conditions with a shift to
NWly/Nly winds is expected behind the front this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 72 52 70 / 10 0 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 50 68 47 69 / 10 0 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 49 69 47 70 / 10 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 47 65 41 66 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

430
FXUS64 KMRX 300627
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Rain chances are increasing for Southeast Tennessee and Southwest
North Carolina late tonight. Elsewhere may see some light rain.

- A system will move through the Southeast bringing rain chances to
Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina Friday night and
Saturday.

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost
Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The cold front has moved through the region and is currently over
North GA/AL. Showers are starting to develop along the boundary in
Northwest GA. The HRRR has a blob of rain moving into Southeast
Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina late tonight which suggests
the boundary is stalling. The surface low is currently near the
Central AL/MS border, the movement of this low overnight may help
bring the boundary and moisture closer to the southernmost counties
late tonight. Light spotty showers are developing in Middle
Tennessee and will move into the rest of the region overnight.

Today will be dry with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s for the
Tennessee Valley, cooler than recent days. Rain chances are also
very low on Friday, afternoon highs a bit warmer in the upper 60s
and lower 70s.

Friday night into Saturday, a stalled boundary near the Gulf coast
will bring rain to the Southeast as a surface low develops off the
coast of GA/SC and moves up the coast. The best chance for rain
locally will be in Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina
but the bulk of the rain will be farther south. With dew points
expected to be in the 40s there will not be any thunder. Saturday
still looks like the coolest day with highs in the 60s in the
Tennessee Valley which is 10 degrees below normal. Sunday morning
may bring some frost to Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and
the higher elevations.

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday look mostly dry with high pressure over
the Southeast. A warming trend begins early next week. Rain chances
are expected to increase by Wednesday with a possible cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Showers and possibly an isolated lightning strike will move into
CHA by the early morning hours. Occasional reductions to MVFR are
included in a TEMPO group, but primarily VFR is anticipated. At
TRI, conditions have remained just above MVFR, which is expected
for the rest of the night. Throughout the day, clearing conditions
are expected with persistent northerly to northwesterly winds.
Gusts will be more limited with the best chances being at CHA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 51 72 50 / 0 10 10 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 48 71 48 / 0 0 10 40
Oak Ridge, TN 69 47 72 48 / 0 0 10 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 41 68 46 / 0 0 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

806
FXUS64 KMRX 301800
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
200 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 147 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- A system will move through the southeast bringing rain chances
to southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina Friday
night and Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend, with a warming
trend early next week.

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost
Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The upper level pattern has become quasi-zonal with a trough
flattening the ridge which previously brought above normal
temperatures to the region. Near to slightly below normal temps and
dry conditions will continue today and through most of tomorrow.

A shortwave will dive through the Ozarks and into the Gulf States
Friday night into Saturday. Surface cyclogenesis will take place
beneath the strongest upper divergence along the Gulf and Carolina
coastlines, bringing a return of precipitation chances to our south
and eastern areas. If you can imagine an invisible line drawn from
Chattanooga to Bristol, the greatest chances for precipitation will
generally be along and south/east of said line. Probability for
precip 0.5" or greater is around 30-50% in SW NC and along the spine
of the Appalachians. Elsewhere, probabilities are generally 25% or
less.

The enhanced troughing and H5 heights 2 to 3 standard deviations
below normal will also translate to our coolest temperatures
Saturday into Sunday morning. With clouds expected to quickly clear
out overnight Saturday, Sunday morning temperatures look to be
supportive of frost for portions of northeast Tennessee, southwest
Virginia, and southwest North Carolina.

Very patchy chances for frost may linger in high elevations Monday
morning as well, however, minor H5 height rises and a shift to more southeasterly flow in the low-levels will promote a warming trend
back into the mid 70s early next week. Latest guidance trends have
been towards a mostly dry Monday and Tuesday as a front stalls in
the Ohio Valley.

A stronger shortwave is expected to reinforce the Great Lakes region
troughing mid-week, with better chances of showers and storms for
the whole area. Latest NBM probabilities for rain accums greater
than 0.5" is around 50-60%. Will also be worth keeping an eye on
this system for strong/severe chances, but model discrepancies leave
for plenty of uncertainty this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Northerly winds between 7 to 12 kts and
occasional gusts around 20kts continue for a few more hours this
afternoon, lightening tonight. We will also see an increase in
high to mid-level clouds during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 72 50 66 / 10 10 50 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 71 48 63 / 0 10 40 30
Oak Ridge, TN 47 72 48 64 / 0 10 30 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 41 68 46 60 / 0 10 30 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

197
FXUS64 KMRX 010517
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

- A system will move through the southeast, bringing rain chances
to southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina tonight and
tomorrow.

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost
Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend, with a warming
trend early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Temperatures are expected to run below normal through the weekend
before we warm back up to near normal Monday afternoon. Later
today may end up a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, but a
moisture starved cold front is expected to cross the area later
today. A system along the Gulf, trapped mostly to our south due to
the trough, will move towards the Mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow.
This will skirt the south and southeast portion of the forecast
area, bringing increased rain chances later tonight into tomorrow.
The forecast currently calls for no more than a quarter of an
inch, at least over Clay County, closest to the system. The bulk
of the moisture will remain out of our area. Given the stable
conditions and essentially no CAPE, thunderstorms not expected.

Following the exit of the aforementioned system and previously
mentioned cold front, troughing and lower heights aloft will move
into the area later tomorrow into Sunday, with strengthening surface
high pressure. Cooler highs tomorrow as a result, as well as cold
Sunday morning lows anticipated. Areas of and possibly, widespread
frost Sunday morning for portions of northeast TN, southwest VA, the
plateau, and the Southern Appalachians. Temperatures nearest or
below freezing appear most likely for the highest elevations of the
Smokies and Cherokee National Forest where the TN, NC, and VA state
lines meet. Since we are now well into the growing season, a Frost
Advisory for parts of the forecast area Sunday morning could be
likely. Winds will be light, but the limiting factor could be just
how close the temperatures can actually reach the dewpoint that
morning, given the dry air moving in. Either way, very cold
temperatures for early May, where lows at the three climate sites
average 20 degrees warmer than what is forecast.

A corner is turned come Monday, where high pressure moves to the
E/SE, providing southwesterly return flow to the area, thus, warming temperatures. Highs generally around normal Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday, with valley highs in the mid to upper 70s. Tuesday into
Wednesday timeframe, a cold front with possible areawide rain will
impact the region. Too soon to know for certain if this will bring a
threat of strong to severe storms. However, cooler temperatures will
follow this system to finish out the first full week of May

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. A light rain
shower may be around CHA near the end of the period, but for now
the probability looks too low to include in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 50 68 43 / 10 40 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 49 65 40 / 0 20 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 72 47 65 39 / 0 10 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 45 61 35 / 10 10 20 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

410
FXUS64 KMRX 011827
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost
Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend, with a warming
trend early next week.

- Increasing chances of widespread rain in the Tue/Wed/Thu
timeframe of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Biggest weather concern in the near term is the possible frost
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Areas of and possibly,
widespread frost for portions of northeast TN, southwest VA, the
plateau, and the Southern Appalachians. Temperatures nearest or
below freezing appear most likely for the highest elevations of the
Smokies and Cherokee National Forest where the TN, NC, and VA state
lines meet. Since we are now well into the growing season, a Frost
Advisory for parts of the forecast area Sunday morning could be
likely. Winds will be light, but the limiting factor could be just
how close the temperatures can actually reach the dewpoint that
morning, given the dry air moving in. Either way, very cold
temperatures for early May, where lows at the three climate sites
average 20 degrees warmer than what is forecast.


NBM still advertising some slight chance to low-end chance POPs
across the southern TN Valley, east TN mountains, and southwest NC
tonight into tomorrow. However, the majority of deterministic
models keep us mostly dry with the precip just south of our area.
Will lower NBM chance POPs to slight chance for just a few isolated
areas as I think we stay mostly dry.


Temperatures moderate the first of the week as the upper trough
exits and the flow becomes more zonal. Highs next week will mostly
be in the 70s. Chances of rain and storms return to the forecast
Tue/Wed/Thu as another front approaches and moves through our area.
LREF means show moderate/high shear values during this time but very
low MUCAPE values. As of now, not overly concerned for severe
weather but will continue to monitor. Cooler temperatures will
follow this system at the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the period at all sites. Winds
are expected to become gusty at CHA late in period, with winds out
of the north gusting to 20kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 69 44 71 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 65 42 68 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 47 66 41 69 / 0 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 62 37 64 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

385
FXUS64 KMRX 020519
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
119 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 117 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- Portions of the area may see temperatures favorable for frost
Sunday morning.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend, with a
warming trend early next week.

- Next best chance for widespread showers and storms will be the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

Currently, a shortwave is diving through the Ozarks and will
continue into the southern Appalachians through the day. Regional
radar paints a precip shield beneath a southern stream jet core atop
southern portions of the Gulf States. This activity will progress
eastward through the overnight/day. Latest hi-resolution guidance
has remained consistent in holding the bulk of this precipitation to
our south and east. The best chance for minimal light precip is in
southwest NC and the mountains.

H5 heights falling to around -2 to -3 standard deviations this
afternoon into Sunday will translate to below normal sfc
temperatures. With clouds expected to mostly clear Saturday night,
Sunday morning temperatures look supportive of frost for portions of
northeast Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North
Carolina. Some of highest peaks in the SW VA/TN mtns may see
isolated temperatures at or just below freezing, but don't believe
this will be widespread enough to warrant a freeze warning. Portions
of the Cumberland Plateau may also see some patchy frost, but temps
seem a tad more borderline at this time.

Minor H5 height rises and a shift to more amplified southwesterly
flow in the low-levels will promote a warming trend back into the
70s early next week. Most will remain dry into the early week as
well, though slight chance PoPs exist in our far north as a weak
vort max translates through the southern Ohio Valley Monday.

A stronger shortwave is expected to reinforce the Great Lakes region
troughing mid-week, with precip chances ramping up Wednesday/Wed
Night. Latest NBM probabilities for rain accums 1.0" or greater are
around 40-60%. Will also be worth keeping an eye on this system for strong/severe chances. Strong shear is all but certain, but
instability may be a limiting factor, especially in the event of a
nocturnal passage. There will also be potential for some late season mtn/foothill gusty winds with a southwesterly LLJ and tightening
pressure gradient. Cooler and drier conditions end the week post
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will
generally be north and northwest around 10kts or less, and some
higher gusts can be expected during the day especially CHA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 44 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 43 68 47 / 10 10 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 66 40 69 46 / 10 10 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 38 64 42 / 10 10 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

258
FXUS64 KMRX 021722
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
122 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

- A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory have been issued for
portions of the NWS Morristown forecast area for tonight.

- Cooler temperatures continue on Sunday, but a warming trend then
begins heading into next week.

- Some isolated showers may occur over the plateau this afternoon
and evening. Otherwise the next chance for widespread showers
and storms will be the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

An anomalously deep trough will swing through the region later
today, with upper heights and H85 temps some 2-3 standard
deviations below normal for this time of year. Regional radar
imagery shows some showers associated with this trough over
southern IL and western KY this afternoon. With dry air in place
across the MRX forecast area, and the trough axis arriving well
after peak heating, the odds of rainfall in our area seem low.
However, I would not be surprised to see some spotty showers over
parts of the plateau later this afternoon and evening. Surface
high pressure then builds in from the west tonight, leading to
light winds and good radiational conditions. This should allow for
some freezing temperatures in sheltered areas of our Virginia
counties, as well as some near- freezing temperatures and areas of
frost in parts of the northern plateau, far northeast TN
counties, and even our east TN mountain zones and the valley areas
of our NC counties. Freeze warnings and frost advisories have
been hoisted to account for this. Temperatures will be a touch
warmer on Sun and Sun night, though still cooler than normal.
Frost doesn't appear to be a concern for Sunday night.

Broad cyclonic upper flow continues into early next week, but low
level flow becomes increasingly southwesterly with time. As such,
we should see temperatures rebound back into the 70s to near 80
by Mon and Tue. A weak impulse embedded in the WNW upper flow
looks to spark off some nocturnal convection over southern
Illinois late Sunday night into Monday. Looking at deterministic
guidance, there's a mixed bag of rain chances. Current NBM places
some 20-40% rain chances north of the I-40 corridor during the
daytime hours on Mon, favoring our VA counties and some of our
northern TN mountain areas for the highest odds of seeing
rainfall. Given the pattern and orientation of the low level jet
and associated isentropic ascent, it is certainly plausible that
our northern areas could see some rainfall Monday. Am inclined to
leave this as-is primarily because I don't have enough confidence
in exactly where this rainfall will occur. It could be displaced
further north or south than currently advertised, but it seems
reasonable to have some rain chances in there.

A stronger shortwave is expected to reinforce the Great Lakes
region troughing mid-week. NBM currently ramps up pops during the
day Wednesday but ensemble guidance really suggests it will be
more of a Wednesday evening/overnight rainfall event.
Nevertheless, the latest NBM probabilities for 24 hour rainfall of
1.0" or greater have increased since yesterday and now stand at
around 60-70% for a large chunk of our CWA - highest over the most
drought stricken areas in the south. Other ensemble guidance has
similar odds, and even some deterministic guidance like the ECMWF-
AIFS shows over 0.70" of QPF across a large swath of the CWA. In
other words, it looks like a good rain event is on the horizon.
Will also be worth keeping an eye on this system for strong/severe
storm chances. Strong shear is all but certain, but instability
may be a limiting factor, especially in the event of a nocturnal
passage. There will also be potential for some late season
mtn/foothill gusty winds with a southwesterly LLJ and tightening
pressure gradient. Cooler and drier conditions end the week post
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. An incoming
disturbance aloft will likely spread some ISOLD SHRA into the
plateau region this afternoon and evening, but they should not
persist long enough or be widespread enough to impact any
terminals. Gusty north winds at KTYS and KCHA will give way to
near calm conditions overnight as high pressure builds in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 71 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 42 68 47 79 / 10 0 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 40 68 45 79 / 10 0 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 64 42 75 / 0 0 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky
Mountains-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-Scott TN-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-
Sullivan-Unicoi-Washington TN.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
Johnson-Southeast Carter.

VA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for Lee-
Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

823
FXUS64 KMRX 030519
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
119 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory remain in effect for
portions of the NWS Morristown forecast area through this
morning.

- Cooler temperatures continue this afternoon, with a warming
trend heading into next week.

- Isolated to scattered showers possible in northern areas Monday
morning, otherwise, the next chance for widespread showers and
storms will be mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Weak vort max is beginning to depart the southern Appalachians as
light shower activity has diminished. Clouds will continue to
clear into the morning and promote favorable radiational cooling
conditions that will lead to frost/freeze for northern portions of
the area. Dry weather with continued cool temperatures expected
this afternoon.

Minor H5 height rises and a shift to more amplified southwesterly
flow in the low-levels will promote a warming trend into the 70s or
near 80 early next week. Monday will feature a weak impulse
traversing mean flow aloft. CAMs have come into a little better
agreement with scattered showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder
impacting northern locations Monday morning into the early
afternoon.

A stronger shortwave is expected to reinforce the Great Lakes region
troughing mid-week. Can't rule out some precip Tuesday night but
deterministic models are in fairly good agreement that the more
widespread precip chances ramp up Wednesday/Wed Night. Latest NBM probabilities for rain accums > 1.0" have stayed steady around 60-
70% this forecast cycle. However, a slight uptick in joint
probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and Bulk Shear > 40kts can be
noted in LREF probabilities. These probabilities generally range
between 40-50% along and south of interstate 40. Some deterministic
guidance hints at jet coupling that could possibly enhance lift
enough to help overcome a low CAPE environment. Biggest concern
would be locally gusty winds and heavy downpours with any stronger
storms. There may also be potential for some late season
mtn/foothill gusty winds with a southwesterly LLJ and tightening
pressure gradient. Cooler and drier conditions end the week post
FROPA, with the potential for another quick shot of light rain next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 46 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 46 78 55 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 68 43 79 54 / 0 10 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 40 75 49 / 0 10 30 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-
Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan-Northwest Carter-Northwest
Greene-Scott TN-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-
Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for Johnson-Southeast
Carter.

VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-Scott
VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

338
FXUS64 KMRX 031909
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
309 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 305 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

- Temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight. No frost or freeze
products expected.

- Slight chance of rain tomorrow morning across southwest VA and
slight chance thunder in afternoon.

- Warming trend this week.

- Chances for widespread showers and storms late tuesday night
through Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Temperatures will be around 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight across
the area. Therefore, no frost/freeze products are expected to be
issued. However, there is a low-end chance that a few sheltered
valley locations across the east TN mountains, northeast TN and
southwest VA may see some patchy frost.

NBM still showing some slight chance and low-end chance POPs across
southwest VA for tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. This is
due to a weak impulse traversing mean flow aloft. Based on latest deterministic models and CAMs, NBM POPs seem reasonable so will
leave them be. Any morning activity that occurs will be rain. Then,
slight chance thunder with any afternoon activity.

Best chance of widespread rain, and some storms, occurs late Tuesday
night through Thursday morning. This is in response to an approaching
cold front and emerging shortwave from out of the Central Plains
states. There are several things we are watching with this system.

Winds: A prolonged period of breezy/gusty winds are expected across
the east TN mountains in response to an increase in the LLJ. From
Tuesday through Thursday, expect mountain winds to be breezy at
times. The highest peaks may see on and off gusts between 30 and
40 mph.

Precip: NBM precip probs haven't changed too much since the last
cycle. They generally show 60 to 80% probs of seeing at least 1" or
greater amounts for this event. The 2" probs between Knoxville and
Chattanooga are around 40/50%. However, there are much lower probs,
around 20%, across northeast TN and southwest VA to see 2" or
greater.

Storms: LREF joint probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and Bulk Shear

40kts are similar this run as well. These probabilities

generally range between 40-60% along and south of interstate 40.
The current day 4 SPC outlook highlights areas just to our
southwest. It's not unreasonable that we could at least see a
marginal risk in place along and south of I-40 on the next update,
new day 3. While CAPE continues to be a limiting factor in the
overall severe threat, wind shear will be plenty. Biggest concern
as of now continues to be locally gusty winds and heavy downpours
with any stronger storms.

Cooler and drier conditions end the week post FROPA, with the
potential for another quick shot of light rain next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period along
with light westerly winds less than 10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 46 80 55 80 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 43 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 76 49 78 / 10 10 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

883
FXUS64 KMRX 040529
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
129 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 126 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- Low chance of rain showers this morning across southwest VA and
slight chance thunder.

- Showers and storms Tuesday night through Thursday morning, with
periods of heavy rain possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Ongoing showers/storms across southern IL/IN will be tracking
E-SE through the night along a weak warm front. CAMS show this
activity expanding in the next few hours, and clipping our SW VA
counties between 6-10 AM. With only weak elevated instability,
this should mainly just be showers with thunderstorms being
isolated at best. Otherwise, it will be a mostly sunny day with
temperatures warmer than we have had recently, in the mid to upper
70s.

An approaching cold front will bring showers into the area Tuesday
night, with an extended wet period expected through Thursday as that
front stalls near the area. There are several things we are watching
with this system:

Winds: A southerly LLJ jet develops Tuesday evening. REFS proability
of winds 40 kt or greater are around 70% in the East TN mountains.
With the slow progression of the front, 850 mb winds continue in
the 35-50 kt range through Wednesday.

Precip: The cold front stalls near the area on Wednesday as it
becomes parallel to the mid/upper flow. Favorable upper jet position
for QG forcing and a wide open Gulf suggest periods of heavy
rainfall, with potential for flooding. NBM precip probs for
Wednesday and Wednesday night generally show 70 to 80% probs of
seeing at least 1" or greater amounts for this event south of I-40,
with 40-60% north.

Thunderstorms: LREF joint probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg and
Bulk Shear > 40kts have dropped from previous runs, and are now
around 25% south of I-40 (previously 40-60%). While CAPE continues
to be a limiting factor in overall severe threat, but wind shear
will be plenty. Biggest concern as of now continues to be locally
gusty winds and heavy downpours with any stronger storms.

Cooler and drier conditions can be expected for the end of the week
as a broad trough develops over the eastern Conus.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Light winds
early will become southwest around 10kts with a few higher gusts,
before becoming light again after sunset.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 54 79 62 / 0 0 10 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 54 79 61 / 0 0 10 60
Oak Ridge, TN 79 53 77 60 / 0 0 20 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 48 77 57 / 10 0 10 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

107
FXUS64 KMRX 041753
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
153 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- Widespread showers and storms Tuesday night through Thursday
morning.

- Periods of heavy rain are likely. Some flooding concerns are
possible given the potential for training showers and storms on
Wednesday.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists on Wednesday if
surface-based instability can develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Main concern for the next 7 days will be the system moving through
the region on Wednesday so the discussion will focus on that. This
will bring with it the possibility of some flash flooding concerns,
as well as a conditional severe weather threat. Gusty winds will be
possible in the mountains Tue night into Wed thanks to a strong low
level jet, but otherwise mostly dry conditions are in store for the
forecast area through the period.

A synoptic scale trough will drop out of central/eastern Canada
into the northern CONUS today and tonight, while a closed upper low
slowly moves ashore over southern California. Eventually the upper
low opens up and anchors the western periphery of the Canadian
trough, allowing the northern and southern stream jets to merge over
the central CONUS Tue into Wed. The result will be widespread
southwesterly flow developing over the deep south and lower
Mississippi river valley tonight through the mid week time frame. At
the surface, cyclogenesis will take place across the southern plains
on Tuesday, with a cold front setting up somewhere from the Arklatex
region ENE into eastern Kentucky by Tue night. All of this will lead
to a plume of Gulf moisture surging northeast from the Texas coast
into the Appalachian region, with PWATS exceeding 1.75" across parts
of the area by Wed afternoon before the cold front pushes through
Wed night into early Thu morning.

Flooding/Flash Flooding concerns:

Low and mid level flow will be parallel to the front as it
approaches, with several waves of surface low pressure forecast to
develop and move northeast along the front Tue night through Wed.
All of this points to a slow moving boundary which, when coupled
with a modest amount of instability, sufficient shear, and high
PWATs will mean a chance of training showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing heavy rains and some flash flooding issues. The
heaviest rain looks to be focused on areas south of the I-40
corridor, which is where drought conditions are the most severe at
the moment. And although rain is needed, heavy rains on drought
stricken soil is not ideal. Currently the forecast calls for 2-3" of
storm total rain across the southern half of the forecast area and
especially in the southern TN mountains, which is supported by
ensemble data showing very high odds of exceeding 1.5" across a
large swath of the southern half of the CWA Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. And given the pattern, I would not be at all
surprised to see this exceeded in spots if there is any decent
training of thunderstorms. Furthermore, WPC has the southern parts
of the CWA highlighted by a Day 3 Excessive Rain Outlook, so this
all seems reasonable.

Severe weather concerns:

Depending on the location of the front Wed afternoon and evening,
and the thermal profiles in place, there could be just elevated
instability with heavy rains and no real threat of severe storms. Or
there could be the potential for damaging winds and even a
conditional tornado risk in the south. Joint probabilities from
ensemble data show about a 30-35 percent chance of having surface-
based instability exceeding 500 J/kg and bulk shear of 40kt or
greater Wed afternoon and evening across the southern TN valley. I
don't have high confidence in exactly how this will play out because
that will depend on mesoscale details that we're not privy to just
yet (e.g. where and when do the waves of surface low pressure
develop along the front and pass by/through our CWA, and what are
the effects on the low level thermal profiles). However, there's
plenty of shear in place and if we can develop surface based
instability then damaging winds and even a tornado can't be ruled
out over the southern valley and plateau areas Wed afternoon and
evening. Currently the far south is outlooked in a Day 3 Marginal
risk area by SPC and that seems reasonable given the uncertainties.
I wouldn't be surprised if there is an increase in severe chances
over the next 24 hours though as the event comes into view of the
CAM guidance.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Aside
from gusty south-southwest winds at TYS this afternoon, winds
should be around 10kts or less through the period and mostly
south-westerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 79 63 77 / 0 20 50 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 79 61 75 / 0 20 70 90
Oak Ridge, TN 52 77 60 73 / 0 20 70 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 78 58 74 / 0 10 60 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

542
FXUS64 KMRX 050530
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 129 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

- Widespread showers and storms Tuesday night through Thursday
morning.

- Periods of heavy rain are likely. Some flooding concerns are
possible given the potential for training showers and storms on
Wednesday.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists on Wednesday if
surface- based instability can develop.

- Southwesterly winds will be gusty today through Wednesday
especially in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf. A trough is over the
northern states. Nearly zonal flow will be over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys today. By Tuesday night, a surface low will
develop near OH/PA with a developing cold front extending southwest
into Texas. Minor waves can be seen moving through the upper level
pattern. This boundary will very slowly sag southward moving into
Middle Tennessee and East Kentucky by Wednesday afternoon/early
evening. This slow moving boundary will bring multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday night through Wednesday night
before activity tapers off on Thursday.

Southwesterly winds will be gusty ahead of this system. A Wind
Advisory may be needed for the East Tennessee mountains and
foothills starting Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. The
850 mb jet will increase Tuesday evening. The wind direction looks
favorable for downslope wind enhancement. Gusts up to 45-50 mph will
be possible in wind prone spots.

Tuesday night:

A few strong storms will be possible Tuesday night. Severe storms
will develop upstream along the boundary in the evening hours. Those
storms will not get to East Tennessee until the overnight hours and
will have plenty of time to weaken. HRRR still shows a few strong
storms possible despite low instability. Dew points will be in the
50s Tuesday night but increasing through the night as low level
southerly flow increases with the low level jet strengthening. The
best chance for a strong storm will be west of I-75 closer to the
boundary.

Wednesday:

Deep layer southwesterly flow continues to pump moisture from the
Gulf into the region. By Wednesday afternoon, Precipitable water
values will reach 1.7 inches in the Tennessee Valley. Exceeding the
90th percentile which is around 1.4 inches for May 6. Multiple
rounds of heavy rain may lead to some flooding issues especially
along and south of I-40 where rain amounts are expected to be
higher. The southern half of the region has been the hardest hit
with drought conditions.

Wednesday afternoon/evening may be the best chance for strong to
severe storms to develop with the cold front in good proximity and
effective shear around 50 knots. Instability may be a limiting factor
with cloud cover lingering all day Wednesday but with CAPE expected
to be around 500 J/kg and dew points in the 60s severe storms cannot
be ruled out. A low end tornado threat may be possible with 0-1 km
shear expected to be near 20 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday:

At the moment, it looks like the cold front will move through the
region overnight Wednesday night. The threat for severe storms and
flash flooding may linger into the overnight hours but late into the
night the threat will decrease as the front passes.

Showers will linger on Thursday morning as the front is still very
slow to move and will likely be just south of the region. The
flooding threat will be over after the front moves through with a
much drier air mass moving in with dew points in the 50s. Thunder is
also not expected. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave will move
through the Tennessee Valley kicking the front out but kicking off
another round of showers. High pressure will be centered over the
region Thursday night.

Friday through Monday:

Another system is possible Sun/Mon, but looks like it will move
through much faster. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Borderline LLWS at TYS/TRI to start the period was added earlier
and will be allowed to continue for now. VFR conditions expected
for the period. Winds will become gusty during the day especially
TYS from the SW. LLWS looks borderline again tonight as surface
winds subside especially CHA/TRI, and it may need to be added
later but will be left out for no as confidence of it meeting
criteria is currently not high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 63 77 61 / 10 50 90 100
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 61 75 58 / 10 70 90 100
Oak Ridge, TN 78 60 73 56 / 20 70 100 90
Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 58 73 56 / 10 70 100 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

662
FXUS64 KMRX 051756
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

- Widespread showers and storms tonight through Thursday morning.

- Periods of heavy rain are likely. Some flooding concerns are
possible given the potential for training showers and storms on
Wednesday. Widespread flooding seems unlikely though.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists on Wednesday if
surface-based instability can develop. If it does, damaging
winds will be possible, and even a tornado risk will be present.

- Southwesterly winds will be gusty today through Wednesday
especially in the East Tennessee mountains and foothills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Northern and southern stream jet energy will phase over the central
CONUS over the next 24 hours as a closed low over Southern
California opens up in response to a synoptic scale dropping south
from Canada into the northern plains and upper midwest. Surface low
pressure develops over the southern plains and will shift northeast
through the Ozarks and into Kentucky, with the associated front
pushing through our forecast area tomorrow. Ahead of the front,
showers and possibly some elevated thunderstorms will spread into
the region tonight, then increase in coverage tomorrow, with
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoon
and evening.

Mountain winds:

Ahead of the front, low level flow ramps up tonight with most
guidance showing at least 30-40 kt of H85 flow, and some showing
slightly more. Given the lack of CAD setup east of the mountains and associated pressure and temperature gradients across the
Appalachians, this seems like a lower end Advisory event. However,
there is enough signal for 40-50mph wind gusts in the Smokies to
warrant issuing a Wind Advisory there. Elsewhere, in our typical
mountain wave wind spots it looks mostly like a breezy night that
will fall short of advisory levels.

Severe storms:

There remains a conditional severe weather threat tomorrow, one that
largely hinges on how early morning convection will affect
instability later in the day I believe. Shear won't be in question,
with guidance showing effective shear north of 50kt across much of
the CWA tomorrow afternoon and evening. Instability on the other
hand, is uncertain. Probabilistic guidance continues to show
respectable (40-60 percent) chances of seeing deep layer sheer of
greater than 40kt and surface-based CAPE exceeding 500 or even 750
J/kg tomorrow afternoon in the southern parts of the CWA. Thus I
believe there will be a limited window ahead of the front tomorrow
afternoon and evening where some severe storms could develop. If
that occurs, damaging winds will be the most likely hazard, but
severe-sized hail and even a tornado risk will be on the table as
well. Again though, this is a conditional situation and it's
possible that cloud cover and rain during the day could keep a
surface inversion in place and limit the outcome to just elevated
showers with heavy rains. And I don't have high confidence in which
scenario becomes a reality.

Flooding rains:

PWATs are forecast to increase to around 1.7-1.8" tomorrow, mainly
south of the I-40 corridor, which is greater than the 90th
percentile for this time of year. Training storms will be a
possibility with steering flow largely parallel to the incoming
front. Given the multiple rounds of rain expected between tonight
and Wednesday night, it's possible that some flooding concerns could
arise. I don't know that the threat is widespread enough to warrant
issuing a watch at this time however, so will just continue to
advertise in the AFD and the HWO.

Wednesday night onward:

At the moment, it looks like the cold front moves through the region
overnight Wednesday night. The threat for severe storms and flash
flooding may linger into the first half of the overnight hours but
late in the night the threat will decrease as the front passes.

Much drier air moves in behind the front with dew points dropping
into the 50s on Thursday. Showers linger on Thursday morning, with
more possible again in the north Thu afternoon and evening as a weak
impulse passes by. High pressure will be centered over the region
Thursday night.

Friday through Monday:

Another system is possible Sun/Mon, but looks like it will move
through much faster. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions through late tonight before rain moves in. SHRA
seem likely at all sites after 12z, with accompanying MVFR flight
categories. TSRA will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning,
but coverage uncertainty precludes mentioning it for now. More
widespread TSRA chances will exist tomorrow afternoon. SWLY flow
through the TN valley likely keep gusts going at KTYS, with
lighter winds elsewhere. Elsewhere, winds may stay elevated enough
to prohibit LLWS so I left that out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 77 61 72 / 60 90 100 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 74 58 68 / 70 100 100 60
Oak Ridge, TN 60 73 56 69 / 80 100 90 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 73 56 65 / 70 100 100 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for
Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

325
FXUS64 KMRX 060523
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
123 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Widespread showers and storms through Thursday morning.

- Periods of heavy rain are likely. Some flooding concerns are
possible given the potential for training showers and storms
this afternoon and evening. Widespread flooding seems unlikely
though.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists this
afternoon/evening if surface-based instability can develop. If
it does, damaging winds will be possible, and even a low end
tornado risk will be present.

- Southwesterly winds will be gusty today especially in the East
Tennessee mountains and foothills. A Wind Advisory is in effect
for the Smoky Mountains through 11 AM EDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf. A trough is over
the Midwest. Nearly zonal flow over the Tennessee Valley will
become more southwesterly today. A surface low is currently near
OH/PA with a cold front extending southwest into Texas. This
boundary will slowly sag southward moving into Middle Tennessee
and East Kentucky by late this morning. This slow moving boundary
will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms from early
this morning through tonight. The cold front will likely move
through the region around midnight tonight or shortly after. Rain
will continue overnight but thunder chances will decrease through
the night as drier air moves into the region. Thursday, showers
will linger across the region as the cold front remains just to
the south in the morning hours. Thursday afternoon showers will
continue as a shortwave moves through the region.

Southwesterly winds are increasing in the East Tennessee mountains
and foothills as the low level jet strengthens. A Wind Advisory is
in effect for the Smoky Mountains through 11 AM EDT this morning.
Gusts up to 45-50 mph will be possible in the Smoky Mountains.

Through early morning:

Currently dew points are low in the 40s throughout East Tennessee.
Dew points will increase overnight as southerly flow continues. The
cold front is currently near the Ohio River in IN/IL/KY stretching
back into Northwest Arkansas. Storm activity along and ahead of the
front is currently weaker than CAMs predicted. Very little
development occurred in Arkansas. The latest HRRR run has a strong
line of storms developing near the Mississippi River near Arkansas
and west Tennessee. The HRRR has this line weakening significantly as
it moves into Middle Tennessee. In East Tennessee, shower and storm
activity will increase overnight with the best chances in the early
morning hours. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible but severe
storms are not likely through the morning hours.

Today:

Deep layer southwesterly flow continues to pump moisture from the
Gulf into the region. By this afternoon, Precipitable water values
will reach 1.7 inches in the Tennessee Valley. Exceeding the 90th
percentile which is around 1.4 inches for May 6. Multiple rounds of
heavy rain may lead to some flooding issues especially along and
south of I-40 where rain amounts are expected to be 1 to 2.5 inches.
The southern half of the region has been the hardest hit with
drought conditions. Overall, widespread flooding is not expected but
maybe some pockets of localized flooding.

The severe threat for late this afternoon and early evening is still complicated. The HRRR has strong to severe storms along and south of
the GA/TN border. Some of the other CAMs have a line of strong
storms all the way into the Central Tennessee Valley. Effective
shear will be favorable around 50 knots. Instability may be a
limiting factor with cloud cover lingering all day but with CAPE
expected to be around 500 J/kg and dew points in the 60s severe
storms will be possible mainly south of I-40. A low end tornado
threat will be possible if storms are able to organize with 0-1 km
shear expected to be near 20 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday:

It looks like the cold front will move through the region around
midnight tonight or shortly after. The threat for severe storms will
be over by midnight. The localized flooding threat may linger into
the overnight hours but late into the night the threat will decrease
as drier air moves in.

Showers will linger on Thursday morning as the front is still slow
to move and will likely be just south of the region. The flooding
threat will be over by morning with a much drier air mass moving in
with dew points in the 50s. Thunder is also not expected on
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave will move through the
Tennessee Valley kicking the front out but kicking off another round
of showers. High pressure will be centered over the region Thursday
night.

Friday through Tuesday:

Friday and Saturday look mostly dry with weak troughing and high
pressure. Another system is likely Sun/Mon and may have some good
upper level support. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Will see showers and thundestorms around at times through the
period, and will try to time best chances for thunder with prob30
groups. VFR conditions to start, but will see more MVFR/IFR
conditions as the precipitation increases. Still looks borderline
for LLWS early in the period, so will monitor but leave out for
now.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 59 73 50 / 100 100 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 74 56 69 46 / 100 90 30 0
Oak Ridge, TN 72 54 70 45 / 100 90 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 72 53 65 42 / 100 100 50 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky
Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

950
FXUS64 KMRX 061810
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
210 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Widespread showers and storms through tonight.

- A conditional severe weather threat exists this afternoon and
evening near the TN/GA border. Overall the odds are low, but the
risk of damaging winds or even a tornado aren't zero.

- Heavy rains and an isolated risk of flooding could occur in the
far south this afternoon and evening as well. But again, like
the severe risk, the overall odds are low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

An upper jet will strengthen over the Ozarks and Ohio valley this
afternoon and evening, with shortwave energy moving ENE overtop a
cold front situated from Kentucky, southwest over Middle Tennessee
and northern Mississippi. Regional radar imagery show the CWA in a
lull between morning convection and additional storms to our west,
with visible satellite imagery showing some sun breaks and thinning
of cloud cover across East Tennessee as well. And temperatures are
responding in kind, with a nearly 10 degree increase in surface
temps at Chattanooga the last couple of hours. All of this to say
that model forecasts showing surface based CAPE values climbing into
the 500-1,000 J/kg range later this afternoon in the south seem
very reasonable, and with the shear (upwards of 50kt effective
bulk shear), the conditional threat of severe storms remains in
place there. Further north I think the odds are quite low.

The southern severe threat is not without uncertainty though.
Current regional radar imagery matches the 12z NAM Nest fairly
well for this hour. This model shows this cluster of storms over
the WFO Huntsville forecast area moving east along the TN/GA
border over the coming few hours, followed by additional
development later this afternoon and evening in those same general
areas. The questions I have are, does this activity become severe
as it moves through our far southern areas here shortly...does
this activity clear to the east quick enough that we can regain
some surface instability later on...or finally, does it
effectively stabilize the far southern areas heading into the late
afternoon and evening. If the latter, then our severe threat is
quite low, if it exists at all. The other two scenarios are less
clear. It would seem reasonable to assume that the thermal
profiles along the TN/GA border show greater instability and an
environment that would support stronger wind gusts making it to
the surface. As for the tornado threat right now, it seems low as
the VAD wind profile off HUN's radar doesn't show favorable
conditions. That likely doesn't change in the near term in the
southern TN valley either. Later this afternoon, forecast
soundings show slightly better conditions but there's still
uncertainty. The threat seems to be confined along or just south
of the TN/GA border. Further north perhaps some damaging winds
could occur but CAM guidance doesn't show much in the way of
stronger activity so the thought is that severe chances are
limited to the south.

As far as chances for flooding problems, most guidance has shifted
the heaviest rain south of our area. It's not out of the question we
could see some isolated flooding issues due to training storms,
especially from the far southern TN valley eastward into our NC
counties where QPF is forecast to be highest. But overall it seems
the threat is less than the last few days.

The cold front behind all of this will push through the area late
tonight. Rainfall should largely be wrapping up between 06z and 12z,
but the upper jet doesn't pull off to the east until Thu afternoon
so I wouldn't be surprised to see some showers lingering in mainly
the mountains through midday or early afternoon as we transition to
a NW flow region just off the surface.

Dry conditions are expected late Thursday through Friday. Zonal flow
aloft then brings another disturbance through the area Friday night
into Saturday, but rain chances are questionable with that period as
we're beneath confluent upper jet energy. Current NBM guidance
doesn't have much in the way of rain chances and I'm inclined to
think that's reasonable for now. But some guidance does bring some
quick hitting rain to the area early Sat morning. Better rain
chances exist later in the weekend as a synoptic scale trough works
through the eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Widespread SHRA and embedded TSRA (most likely at KCHA) will
spread across East Tennessee this afternoon and evening. Expect
most activity will wrap up around or shortly after 06z tonight,
but some showers may linger into the morning hours. As for flight
categories, expect a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions overnight as
the front moves in from the west. A return to VFR categories
doesn't seem likely until after 18z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 72 47 74 / 100 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 69 44 72 / 90 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 53 70 43 72 / 90 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 65 40 69 / 90 40 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

439
FXUS64 KMRX 070521
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
121 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- The severe storm threat has ended.

- Light to moderate rain will continue overnight. Flooding
potential if any is low.

- Rain showers will decrease in the morning hours and end
completely by mid afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

The cold front is currently stalled near the Cumberland Plateau
at the western edge of our forecast area. Rain showers are still
developing along, ahead of and behind this boundary. Thunderstorms
and heavy rain have moved out of the region. The highest rainfall
amounts have been south of I-40 with many locations receiving one
to two inches. North of I-40, rain amounts have been much lower
with most locations receiving less than half an inch.

Light to moderate rain showers will continue overnight. The highest
rain amounts are expected over the Southern Tennessee Valley and
Southwest North Carolina with half an inch to one inch additional
rainfall expected through the morning hours. The severe storm threat
has ended. Instability has eroded from multiple rounds of rain. The
flooding threat peaked in the evening hours and has been declining.
I can't completely rule out some flooding issues in the southernmost
counties as repeated showers and storms will continue until the
front moves through but that area seems to be doing well with the
rain due to the drought conditions and rain rates haven't been too
high. The cold front will move through the region by morning.

Showers will linger this morning as the front is still slow to move
and will likely be just south of the region. Showers will be light
and spotty with a much drier air mass moving in with dew points in
the 50s. By Thursday afternoon, a shortwave will move through the
Tennessee Valley kicking the front out of the region. Most of the
region will be dry through the afternoon hours. High pressure will
be centered over the region Thursday night.

Friday night/Saturday morning another shortwave will move through
the region but rain chances look low. A Gulf Low will bring rain
chances to the Southeast Saturday/Sunday but the higher rain chances
will likely stay south of the Tennessee Valley. Sunday and Sunday
night will bring a better chance for showers and storms as a system
with good upper level support moves through the region. Otherwise,
early next week looks mostly dry. Highs will be mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Some showers around early with mainly MVFR/IFR conditions, then
will see improvement to VFR during the day. Light winds will
become north and west around 10kts or less during the day, then
light again late.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 71 47 74 52 / 20 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 44 72 51 / 40 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 69 43 72 50 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 40 69 46 / 50 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

689
FXUS64 KMRX 071742
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
142 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- Dry and significantly cooler conditions expected tonight. Patchy
frost will be possible in the north and also at higher
elevations.

- Friday should be dry, but a couple of systems will bring chances
of light rain to the region between Saturday and Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

A strong jet atop a moist boundary layer trapped in the
Tennessee valley continued to produce occasional light rain and
drizzle for areas near or east of the I-81 corridor late this
morning. The upper jet will remain overhead through this afternoon
and evening but we shift into the left entrance region by mid/late
afternoon, losing any lift associated with the jet streak and thus
our support for continued light rainfall.

For tonight, the cold front continues to push southeast away from
the region, allowing high pressure and drier air to move in from the northwest. Temperatures will drop into the 30s tonight across
sheltered areas north of the I-40 corridor and also places with
notable elevation. Suspect we have a chance of seeing some frost in
places, although confidence in how widespread that will be is pretty
low. Blended the NBM 10th percentile and HREF for temperatures and
dewpoints tonight, which yields some patchy frost over portions of
the northern Cumberland plateau, and some scattered areas from the
far northern TN valley into southwest Virginia, as well as elevated
places in our TN mountains. Will forego headlines at the moment due
to uncertainties in coverage, and just highlight here and also in
the HWO.

Looking ahead, zonal flow is in place across the region on Friday,
with a shortwave moving through the Ohio and Tennessee valley areas
early Saturday as the eastern CONUS transitions to synoptic scale
troughing. There's not much phasing of southern and northern stream
energy with this Saturday impulse, with the forecast area largely
shown to be beneath confluent upper level flow and a dry region
between two areas of precip associated with the northern/southern
stream jets for Saturday. We have some slight chance PoPs over a
large chunk of the CWA on Saturday morning and that looks perfectly
reasonable to me at this time.

Additional upper level energy and another cold front will sweep
through the region Sunday and Sunday night, for more chances of
widespread rainfall. There doesn't appear to be any severe storms or
flooding concerns with this system, just some much needed widespread
rainfall.

First half of next week looks largely dry, but upper troughing
continues over the eastern CONUS next week so additional systems and
rainfall are at least possible the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Areas of -RADZ continue across East Tennessee but should move away
from TAF sites by 19z or 20z at the latest. Afterwards, expect
VFR conditions to last through late tonight before fog development
becomes a possibility. Currently have some VSBY restrictions
mentioned at KTYS and KTRI where fog appears most likely. There
was quite a bit of rain at KCHA too, and temperatures will be cool
tonight, but think there will be enough high clouds to prohibit
fog there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 47 74 52 79 / 0 0 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 72 51 77 / 0 0 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 42 72 50 77 / 0 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

061
FXUS64 KMRX 081051 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- Cold temperatures expected this morning. Areas to the north and
sheltered valleys in higher terrain may see patchy frost. See
Special Weather Statement for details.

- Generally low rain chances through the forecast period, with the best
chance early next week with a frontal system.

- Temperatures will range from just below normal to near normal through
the period. Possible return of cold morning lows Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

The forecast period through next week can be characterized by
longwave troughing dominating the east and ridging locked to the
west. Our area will almost be smack dab in the middle of northern
and southern stream disturbances, and that is evident looking at the
sum of days 1 through 7 WPC QPF. The greatest moisture will remain
to our south over the Gulf states and southeast. For the week, our
area will generally exhibit zonal to northwesterly flow. It'll be
dry today with a possible brush of isolated showers Saturday. Area
wide rain tries to set up late Sunday into Monday, with the arrival
of a frontal system. Thereafter, the forecast dries out with a
potential northern system mid week or so.

Due to drier conditions and high pressure overhead this morning,
clear skies, calm winds, and temperatures near or below 40 degrees,
patchy frost development is possible across portions of the northeast
and southwest Virginia. A Special Weather Statement through 9 am ET
covers the counties we think may have the best shot. Much of the
rest of the forecast area may be too warm, or not get the drier air
in time. And clouds are actually streaming in across southern
portions of the CWA, which would further inhibit stout decoupling.
Under peak mixing later today, minimum RHs could sink into the 30s
and 40s percent. Shouldn't be any increased fire weather threat due
to recent rain and winds will be light this afternoon.

Once we warm later today, temperatures will be on an incline through
Sunday. The aforementioned frontal system will send temperatures
downward again Monday and especially early Tuesday, where lows that
morning could return to the 30s and 40s again. Then a gradual
recovery of temperatures until the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Fog at TRI will lift in the next couple hours, with VFR conditions
and light winds expected for the rest of the period at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 53 80 57 / 0 10 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 51 77 55 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 72 50 78 53 / 0 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 46 74 50 / 0 0 20 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

156
FXUS64 KMRX 081839
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- Another cold front by Monday, but only light rainfall amounts
expected. Potential for patchy frost into Tuesday morning.

- No significant weather concerns otherwise over the next week,
more low to medium rain chances next Wednesday, mild
temperatures for mid May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Not a lot of rain in the next 7 days in total QPF, so good news for
those who love drought. The HRRR is sporting a few low-topped
showers on Saturday, but overall ensemble blends aren't as
supportive. Could see a lucky isolated shower or two. As we head
into the weekend, yet another longwave trough over the Eastern US
helps to kick a cold front down into the Mid South. Showers, and
potentially a couple thunderstorms, will traverse the area Sunday
night into Monday morning. Unfortunately, while PWATs will be
elevated as expected ahead of the front, there's no real steady
surge of moisture laden air northwards, and relatively weak dynamics
will combine to only bring light rainfall to the whole of the
region. For those that didn't receive a lot of rain (Knoxville and
north), don't expect anything truly beneficial. Marginal shear and
even more marginal CAPE profiles aren't supportive of any strong
thunderstorm threat, either.

Temperatures through all of this are generally mild to cool to mild
again. Patchy frost is possible across northern TN into southwestern
VA and the mountains Tuesday morning after the cold front brings
cooler air in. A gentle warming trend takes place thereafter.

By mid to late next week, another longwave trough enters the Great
Lakes region of the Eastern US, with a vorticity lobe orbiting
through the southern extent passing through. This is a northern
system, and overall light QPF fields in the deterministic guidance
lends credence to the NBM's pitiful rainfall amounts. A longer range
outlook from our national center depicts continued below average
precipitation outlooks in the 6-10 day range and extended periods.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR likely through the next 24 hours. There's a low probability for
more fog tomorrow morning, but not confident enough to include it in
any TAF site, even KTRI. A few gusts across the area tomorrow
midday, up to 15 to 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 80 58 83 / 10 10 0 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 78 55 82 / 0 10 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 50 79 54 82 / 0 10 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 74 50 79 / 0 10 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

322
FXUS64 KMRX 091054 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Mostly dry weekend, with increasing rain chances associated with
a cold front late Sunday into Monday. Not expecting strong or
even severe storms.

- Another potential frontal passage brings a chance of rain
around mid to late next week.

- Possible patchy frost for parts of the higher terrain and
southwest Virginia Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

The forecast period through next week can be characterized by
longwave troughing dominating the east and ridging locked to the
west. Towards the end of the forecast period though, synoptics
appear to change with ridging moving back in from the west. Just
outside of the forecast period, temperatures potentially warming
above normal at the beginning of next weekend. For the forecast
period, our area will generally exhibit quasizonal to northwesterly
flow. It'll be mostly dry today with a very low outside chance of a
shower for the southern CWA this morning and SW Virginia this
afternoon.

After a brief recovery of temperatures expected this weekend, a cold
front will barrel through sometime early Monday. This looks like
just a low-end rainfall with maybe a quarter of an inch, at best.
QPF trends have turned downward. Some may not even see rainfall at
all. The only real thing going for this system will be the bulk
shear in place, everything else is either too weak or non-existent
for any strong to severe storm potential. We won't really get much
moisture return before the arrival of the system and the timing
doesn't really allow anything surface based. The area with the best
chance of thunder will be the southern plateau and valley, closer to
the better dynamics, as depicted by the SPC Outlook.

Temperatures markedly cooler Monday into Tuesday morning. Parts of
the higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians and SW Virginia may
see possible frost Tuesday morning, where temperatures are forecast
to be in the upper 30s so far. An element that may work against it
will be winds possibly still coming down from somewhat breezy
northerly winds earlier in the day Monday.

Much of the rest of the week will be dry with temperatures warming
Tuesday and afterward. Although, a low pressure center under a
shortwave trough traversing from central Canada, may bring some
light rain to northern portions of the area around mid to late week.
Dry after with northwesterly flow and a ridge on our doorstep from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Clouds at CHA will be near the MVFR/VFR margins this morning, but
are expected to lift/scatter by the afternoon. Some broken VFR
cigs will be around TYS and TRI today, with winds around 10 kt.
Mostly clear conditions and light/calm winds will return tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 57 84 60 / 0 0 10 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 50
Oak Ridge, TN 78 53 82 56 / 10 0 0 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 50 79 53 / 0 0 0 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

749
FXUS64 KMRX 091855
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
255 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

- Morning fog possible for Mother's Day. Very low chance of a
shower tomorrow evening, meager rainfall tomorrow night into
Monday morning.

- Possible patchy frost for parts of the higher terrain and
southwest Virginia Tuesday morning.

- Another potential frontal passage brings medium chances for
additional meager rainfall on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

Both HRRR and the NAM have some steep inversions near or at the
surface tomorrow morning, so tacked in some mentions of patchy fog
for the early morning hours.

Well, the trend is not our friend to bust the drought. Vertical
profiles for tomorrow have gotten more inhospitable to hydrometeor
production, with hardly any CAPE around on guidance, and mostly
sunny skies helping to mix the afternoon RHs fairly low. It'll be a
slightly above normal day temperature wise, but should be great
weather for anyone with surprise plans. When the front and upper jet
get here late Sunday night, we'll get enough divergence to power
light rain showers for much of the area, but the lack of quality
moisture advection means resulting QPF is extremely low.

Arguably the biggest obvious impact (other than the potential for
fog in the morning) is the potential for more patchy frost Tuesday
morning as temperatures again drop into the 30s across portions of
northern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia, along with the
mountains of East Tennessee. Beyond Tuesday we'll enter another
rebound to warmer weather. A weak upper disturbance attempts to give
rainfall on Wednesday, but much like Monday morning ensemble QPF
with this system is also really poor, if any.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR TAFs through the period. A few gusty winds this afternoon
before winds once again relax following the diurnal trend. Very
low chance for fog tomorrow morning at the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 85 60 76 / 0 10 30 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 82 58 72 / 0 0 50 30
Oak Ridge, TN 52 83 56 72 / 0 0 40 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 49 79 53 68 / 0 0 60 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

816
FXUS64 KMRX 101039 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
639 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

- Patchy dense fog possible early this morning. Be careful on your
morning commute.

- Mostly dry today, with increasing rain chances tonight
associated with a cold front. Overall, light accumulation with
nothing strong expected.

- Another cold front around Wednesday to bring the next potential
round of light rainfall.

- The heat gets turned up next weekend with 80s to near 90 degree
highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

There is the possibilty of some patchy dense fog this morning, so if
you will be commuting early on this Mother's Day, take caution.

Troughiness will continue to hold strong for much of the week with
quasizonal to northwesterly flow across the area. Due to such, the
lack of moisture return and southwesterly flow will result in a
fairly weak cold frontal passage later today and late tonight. In
fact, it will be quite dry much of the day with minimum RHs falling
into the 30s and 40s percent range. Total QPF from the system
continues to shift more north and generally light, with amounts in
the hundredth to tenth range. Before the system's exit,
northwesterly flow induced showers may keep the chances going,
especially across the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures markedly cooler tomorrow into Tuesday morning. The
potential for frost Tuesday morning has lessened with this latest
forecast. Lows may be near 40 or warmer now instead of in the upper
30s. Still perhaps a chance in the highest elevations of SW Virginia
and NE Tennessee.

A low pressure system that will shift down from central Canada
and traverse the Great Lakes will bring the next cold front to
the area around Wednesday. The core of the moisture of this system
appears it will stay well north. So, another chance of possible
light accumulation mid-week.

After cooler temperatures Thursday, a noticeable warming trend will
begin and bring some hot temperatures next weekend. The locked in
troughing will finally shift east and be replaced by ridging from
the west. Above average temperatures will continue a week beyond the
forecast, according to the CPC. Mostly dry weather can be expected
the end of the week and into the weekend with possible light rain
chances the middle of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Fog at TRI will lift in the next hour or two. VFR conditions will
pervail at all sites through the rest of the period. Broken VFR
cigs will increase tonight, with a chance of showers arriving near
12Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 60 76 52 / 0 20 30 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 57 73 48 / 0 20 50 0
Oak Ridge, TN 83 56 73 47 / 0 40 50 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 52 69 42 / 0 40 60 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

074
FXUS64 KMRX 101912
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
312 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 308 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

- Meager rainfall late tonight into midday Monday.

- Another system on Wednesday may bring light rain to primarily
locations north of Knoxville.

- Summer-like heat arrives next weekend with 80s to near 90
degree highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Only real change over the last several forecast iterations has been
the timing of the rain gradually shifting further into the day on
Monday. Could still see some light showers/sprinkles late tonight,
but the vast bulk of hardly anything is now expected Monday morning
into around early afternoon. The HRRR has a few locations in our far northeastern counties getting slightly over a quarter of an inch,
though REFS probabilities at that threshold aren't even over 40%.
Locations Knoxville and south can expect even less to zero.

Temperatures for Tuesday morning incremented slightly warmer, though
given clear skies I still would be wary of some patchy frost in
portions of the high elevations and southwest Virginia. Fog is also
possible thanks to the light rain. Additional light rain chances,
and maybe (maybe!) a rumble of thunder in northeastern TN and north
on Wednesday as a second upper trough pivots through. Upper heights
rise thereafter and we start to see a more significant return flow
from the Deep South, the combination of which means we enter a more
legitimate warm up next weekend with a potential arrival of 90F
weather for the southern valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Clouds will gradually increase in advance of an approaching cold
front. TAFs to remain VFR and dry until roughly 12z, when
uncertainty over MVFR potential increases while light rain showers
cross from west to east through the end of the TAF period. Not
confident if any terminal will drop to MVFR conditions, but some
potential is present region wide. Winds to remain light with a
northerly pivot with the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 76 50 80 / 10 30 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 73 46 77 / 20 60 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 56 73 45 77 / 30 50 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 68 41 73 / 40 60 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

221
FXUS64 KMRX 111052 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
652 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 650 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

- Increasing rain chances today associated with a cold front.
Overall, light accumulation north of the southern valley and
plateau, and SW North Carolina.

- A 2nd cold front around Wednesday will bring the next potential
round of light rainfall, primarily to our northern areas.

- The heat gets turned up next weekend with upper 80s to low 90
degree highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Not much rain had fallen yesterday up until this very time. A few
sites recorded a few hundredths of an inch from afternoon showers.
The rain potential with the anticipated cold front has shifted later
and continues to change on amounts. Totals have increased for some,
with the possibility of just over a quarter of an inch.
Unfortunately, the southern plateau, valley, and SW NC may not see
anything. According to surface analysis, the cold front currently
slices diagonally across our area. The majority of the rain will
fall early in the day with low chances for thunder. Upslope induced
terrain showers may fire some thunderstorms later this afternoon
before the complete exit of the system. HREF probs doesn't even
depict CAPE of 500 J/kg or above.

The much drier air behind the front doesn't arrive until later in
the day today. Tomorrow morning lows are continuing to show
temperatures generally above 40 degrees. Wind over the highest
terrain may prevent full decoupling. That said, the frost potential
is very low from where it was 48 hours ago. Tomorrow and Wednesday
we warm a little compared to today, but another cold front will
sweep through from the north. Yet another shot at light
precipitation sometime Wednesday from this next system. The core of
the moisture appears it'll stay well north. Currently, QPF totals
much lighter compared to today's system, with again, favorability
for the northern parts of the forecast area.

Much cooler temperatures again Thursday and into Friday morning,
where it appears 40s for lows just don't want to leave us quite yet.
Only a very short lived dip, because we will turn a hard corner
going into the weekend. The locked in troughing will finally shift
east and be replaced by ridging from the west. Low 90s are possible
for the southern valley next Sunday. True southwesterly flow will
also return, where dew points may even crack into the 60s. Hot and
humid may actually finally arrive. Above average temperatures
expected to continue a week beyond the forecast, according to the
CPC. As far as precipitation is concerned, mostly dry weather can be
expected the end of the week and into the weekend with possible
outside chances of diurnal showers and storms through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Rain showers are spreading across the northern half of the area
this morning, affecting TYS and TRI in the next few hours, and
exiting around 18Z. TYS should stay mainly VFR with the light
rain, but a brief drop to MVFR vis cannot be ruled out. TRI will
likely have some heavier showers that produce MVFR vis/cigs for a
few hours this morning. CHA is expected to stay dry. Winds will
be from a N direction today behind a cold front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 52 79 57 / 20 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 48 77 55 / 60 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 74 47 77 53 / 60 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 43 73 49 / 90 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

449
FXUS64 KMRX 111830
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

- Colder tonight, with some patchy fog expected across areas that
received rainfall earlier today.

- A 2nd cold front around Wednesday will bring the next potential
round of light rainfall, primarily to our northern areas. Gusty
winds across the higher peaks of the east TN mountains through
the day are also expected.

- The heat gets turned up this weekend/early next week with upper
80s to low 90 degree highs in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Colder tonight. Clearing conditions may lead to patchy fog,
especially across areas that received measurable rainfall.

A pleasant day is expected on Tuesday with drier air in place, sunny
skies, and near normal temps.

Our next shot at rain, and perhaps a few storms, arrives on
Wednesday ahead of a cold front. QPF is still expected to be on the
lighter side and continues to favor our northern areas. There is a
marginal risk for severe storms in place just to our north/northeast
and east in portions of WV/VA. There will be plenty of shear but
little to no instability. Current LREF joint-probs show around a 30
to 50% chance to see a few hundred Joules of MUCAPE and at least
30kts of bulk shear. Much higher probs are in place to our
north/northeast and east, which is where the current day 3 marginal
exists. It's not out of the question that a few strong storms clip
our most northern areas but the risk is quite low as of now. Stay
tuned. Additionally, due to the increase in the 850mb jet, wind
gusts from 30 to 40 mph will be possible across the highest peaks
of the east TN mountains. Some 20 to 30 mph gusts are also
expected across valley locations.


Colder on Thursday behind the front, followed up a quick warmup on
Friday. Temperatures continue to climb into the weekend as ridging
returns. Low 90s are possible for the southern valley by Sunday. The
low 90s then creep into the central TN Valley by Monday. Latest
models are showing better chances for some showers/storms on
Saturday with new NBM POPs coming in around 30% chance.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Rain showers have pushed east of the area. Forecasting VFR
through the period at our TAF sites but some of our other sites
are currently reporting MVFR conditions. It's not out of the
question that TRI sees a brief period of MVFR this afternoon but
not confident enough to include in TAFS. Additionally, some patchy
fog is expected tonight, but will omit fog from TAFS for now due
to low confidence in coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 52 80 58 82 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 48 78 54 79 / 0 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 43 74 50 74 / 0 0 10 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

437
FXUS64 KMRX 121019 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
619 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Cool start today, with patchy morning fog possible. Otherwise
sunny and pleasant.

- Another cold front moves through on Wednesday with chances for
light rain highest north of the I-40 corridor. Gusty winds across
the higher peaks of the east TN mountains through the day are also
expected.

- If you've been waiting on summer, it arrives next weekend. Highs
in the upper 80s to low 90s appear likely for the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Today will be pleasant, with dry conditions across the board and
plenty of sun thanks to surface high pressure and some slight height
rises aloft. Despite the cool start to the day, temperatures will
rebound into the 70s for low elevation areas and possibly near 80
for the southern TN valley.

The next shortwave will drop out of the midwest and into the Ohio
valley tonight into Wednesday, with the cold front moving through
the southern Appalachians Wednesday afternoon and evening. Rain
chances ramp up during the day Wednesday, but primarily north of the
I-40 corridor which is closer to the stronger upper support to our
north. Lesser rain chances exist in the south. Regardless, QPF with
this event will be quite light, with well less than 0.10" expected.
There remains an outside chance of a stronger storm impacting our
far northern areas on Wednesday. Ensemble data continues to show
joint probabilities in the 30-50 percent range for at least 300 J/kg
worth of instability along with 30kt of shear for Wed afternoon and
evening. However, the odds of seeing strong to severe storms on Wed
seem pretty low overall. Additionally, H85 winds increase Wed which
should be sufficient for some wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range
for the highest peaks of the east TN mountains. Some 20 to 30 mph
gusts are also expected across valley locations.

Colder on Thursday behind the front, followed up a quick warmup on
Friday. Temperatures continue to climb into the weekend as ridging
returns. Low 90s are possible for the southern valley by Sunday. The
low 90s then creep into the central TN Valley by Monday. Latest
models are showing better chances for some showers/storms on
Saturday with new NBM POPs coming in around 30% chance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast this period, with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 57 82 54 / 0 0 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 55 79 51 / 0 0 50 0
Oak Ridge, TN 79 55 79 49 / 0 0 50 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 50 74 45 / 0 0 60 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

228
FXUS64 KMRX 121840
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
240 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 236 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

- Increasing chances of rain, and a few storms, on Wednesday. Low
confidence, but a few strong storms possible across northeast TN
into southwest VA. Gusty winds across the higher peaks of the
east TN mountains are also expected.

- If you've been waiting on summer, it arrives this coming
weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s appear likely for the
valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected overnight, with
most areas in the mid to upper 40s. Tomorrow, a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Showers and a few storms are expected
to develop along and just ahead of the front. Though the risk is
low, there is still the potential to see a few strong storms across
northeast TN into southwest VA. The marginal risk for severe storms
has shifted south and now include these aforementioned areas. The
main driver for this marginal risk is still primarily due to the
shear that will be in place with 40 to 50kts of bulk shear. The
main limiting factor continues to be instability. Like the LREF in
previous days, the HREF retains the roughly 40 to 60% probs of
seeing at least 500 J/kg CAPE. The driver of this lower
instability are the dewpoints, models generally show dewpoints in
the lower 50s. It's hard to get severe weather with dewpoints
this low. If we do see any strong stronger storms, isolated
damaging winds is the primary hazard.

Aside from the showers and storms, winds across the east TN
mountains still look breezy/gusty with this system. Wind gusts from
20 to 30 mph are expected across the higher elevations during the
afternoon and possibly up to 40 mph Wednesday evening into early
Thursday morning. Some 20 to 30 mph gusts are also expected
across valley locations.


We see a brief cooldown on Thursday behind the front, but with
plenty of dry air and sunshine returning. Thursday night will be a
tad chilly again with lows back down into the low to mid 40s for
most areas.


Temperatures ramp up this coming weekend and into early next week as
ridging returns. Temps in the upper 80s to low 90s look likely by
Sunday through early next week. There are still some chances for
showers and storms in the forecast on Saturday but models have
shifted the precip a little further north due to the strength of the
ridge. We may end up with a situation where our northern areas see
some precip but we are dry across the southern TN Valley.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Light winds expected during
the near term but southwesterly winds pickup toward the end of the
period and will continue into Wednesday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 82 53 76 / 0 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 79 49 72 / 0 40 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 55 79 48 72 / 0 40 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 74 45 67 / 0 70 30 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

007
FXUS64 KMRX 131034 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
634 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 633 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

- Increasing chances of rain, and a few storms, this afternoon and
evening from a cold front. Low confidence on if any storms can
become strong across northeast TN into southwest VA. Damaging winds
the primary threat.

- Summer-like temperatures arrive this weekend, persisting into
next week, with highs ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A cold front is expected to arrive this afternoon and evening. Areas
with possibly the best accumulation from this system will be the
north and east. Very southern reaches of the valley and plateau may
miss out this round. Perhaps a heavier storm may provide a bit more
QPF than what the forecast shows, but amounts are generally a
quarter of an inch or less. SPC places some of SW Virginia and a
little part of NE Tennessee within the marginal risk for later
today. The primary hazard will be gusty winds. A point forecast
sounding in the middle of the SW Virginia counties around 18Z
outputs a marginal severe threat with a bit over 40KT westerly bulk
shear and CAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Dew points rising into
the low to mid 50s with convergence along the front, and topographic
forcing, will lead to some storm development. Steepening lapse rates
may also contribute to the damaging wind potential. Gusty day-time
winds in the valley and over higher elevations can be expected today
as well.

Much cooler tomorrow into Friday morning with highs in the 60s and
70s and lows Friday morning returning to the 40s, with possible
upper 30s across the highest terrain. An outside chance of frost
possible for the coldest spots of the Southern Appalachians.

Thereafter, cold mornings may just become a thing of the past when
the heat switch gets flipped for this weekend and into next week.
Stout ridging expanding into Canada will be shifting eastward. Flow
becomes flattened but not before another amplification of the ridge
early next week. The warming trend begins Friday afternoon, but the
80s and 90s begin Saturday afternoon. Any precipitation chances the
rest of the forecast period following today's front, will generally
be low. A shortwave Saturday may bring some low-end shower and storm
chances. Our next frontal system appears it won't be until the
middle of next week, just outside of this forecast period.&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Some broken VFR cigs are building overnight, but will remain VFR
through the morning. Showers ahead of a cold front will enter the
TN Valley this afternoon, mainly affecting TYS and TRI. Chances of
MVFR vis look around 30% at both sites. Winds increase and become
gusty this afternoon. Winds shift to NW behind the front in the
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Broken clouds today will remain at VFR levels for the majority of
the day, but a line of showers will cross the area this
afternoon/evening. A PROB30 will mention these showers with MVFR
vis, and TS at TRI. Winds will be gusty at TYS and TRI today, from
the SW, then shift to W-NW in the evening behind a cold front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 53 75 48 / 10 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 49 72 45 / 40 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 78 49 72 44 / 40 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 45 67 41 / 60 40 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

613
FXUS64 KMRX 131821
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
221 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 220 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

- Will see a few showers and possibly thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Still low confidence on if any storms can
become strong to severe mainly northeast TN into southwest VA,
but if so damaging winds will be the primary threat.

- Big warm up for the weekend into early next week.

- Next significant chance for showers and storms expected to
arrive by next Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

The cold front on our doorstep will sweep through this
afternoon/early evening along with a few showers and possibly
thunderstorms. Convective energy continues to look quite limited
but given the significant shear and a brief uptick in DCAPE, if
any stronger storms are able to develop there continues to be a
marginal threat of damaging winds especially across portions of SW
VA and NE TN.

Cooler and drier air will push in behind the front for Thursday and
Thursday night. Lows Thursday night will be in the lower to mid 40s
for most folks, but a few may see upper 30s.

Upper level ridging will build in Friday, setting the stage for a
strong warm up. Temperatures by the weekend into early next week
will be well above normal, and high temperatures will flirt with 90
across portions of the valley during the Sunday through Tuesday time
frame. It looks mostly dry for Friday through early next week. Weak
short wave energy does slide by to our north and this may bring a
few showers or storms Saturday mainly northern areas, although
models continue to trend drier for our area.

The next front is forecast to be approaching by the end of the
period although timing is quite uncertain that far out. With the
expected approach of the front, chances for showers and storms will
increase a bit for Tuesday and more significantly for Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Some broken VFR cigs are building overnight, but will remain VFR
through the morning. Showers ahead of a cold front will enter the
TN Valley this afternoon, mainly affecting TYS and TRI. Chances of
MVFR vis look around 30% at both sites. Winds increase and become
gusty this afternoon. Winds shift to NW behind the front in the
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 74 47 81 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 49 71 45 78 / 20 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 49 71 44 78 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 45 66 41 74 / 30 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)