ACUS02 KWNS 140557
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave upper trough will eject from the central Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. A swath of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will extend from the southern/central Plains to the
Great Lakes/Midwest ahead of this feature. The southern extent of
the upper trough will move more slowly east, from the southern
Rockies to the southern High Plains. At the surface, low pressure is
forecast to be in the vicinity of the Mid-MO Valley/southeast NE
Wednesday morning, and will shift east/northeast along a warm front
across IA/southern WI/northern IL through evening. A trailing cold
front will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity
during the nighttime hours as the surface low continue to progress
northeast into Ontario. Further south, a dryline will extend
south/southwest across eastern KS into western OK and west-central
TX. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead
of these surface features, focusing severe thunderstorm potential
during the afternoon and evening. A warm moist and unstable airmass
will extend eastward across portions of the upper Ohio Valley/Northeast.

...MO Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity...

Convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of the region
Wednesday morning. As a result, uncertainty exists regarding airmass
recovery and evolution of severe potential Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Persistent southwesterly flow and warm advection
ahead of the surface low will maintain a moist airmass. Convection
should redevelop by late afternoon/evening near the surface low and
along a surface boundary extending from eastern IA to near the IL/WI
border. Where heating can occur in the wake of early day convection,
MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop. Supercell wind profiles
are evident in forecast soundings, especially near the surface low
where SRH will be enhanced. Initial cells may pose a risk for hail.
Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given aforementioned
concerns about boundary-layer impacts from early day convection.
However, at least low potential should exist near the surface low
and warm front/outflow. A corridor of higher tornado probabilities
may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in mesoscale
details and boundary layer recovery increases. During the evening,
upscale growth into an eastward-advancing line is expected as a
surface cold front begins to move east across the region, and
damaging winds will be possible.

...Southern Plains...

Isolated supercells are forecast to develop along the dryline in OK
into eastern KS/ and eventually portions of MO. Mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) will
support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Some weak capping is
noted around 850 mb, which may limit storm coverage in the absence
of stronger large-scale ascent. Nevertheless, elongated/straight
hodographs above 2-3 km within a favorable thermodynamic environment
suggests large to very large hail will be possible with storms that
develop. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible given modestly
enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs and around 150
m2/s2 SRH within a narrow corridor near the dryline.

...Upper Ohio Valley toward the Northeast...

Fast deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening
low-level boundary layer. Strong heating will support steepening
low-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support
midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will foster moderate
destabilization during the afternoon, promoting isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development. Damaging wind gusts and isolated
hail will be possible with this activity into the evening.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 141740
SWODY2
SPC AC 141738

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will be located over the central Plains
on Wednesday and will move across the MS Valley and toward the Great
Lakes late. Moderate to strong mid to high level southwesterlies
will exist over much of the central and southern Plains, along with
cool temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will hold over
the Southeast, with moderate winds aloft along the periphery of the
upper ridge extending from the OH Valley into the Northeast.

At the surface, low pressure will develop into IA as the upper wave
moves out of NE and KS. A front/dryline will extend south across
eastern KS, western OK and west central TX during the day.
Meanwhile, an elongated stationary front will extend from IA into
southern WI/MI and into the lower Great Lakes, with more of a warm
front into NY and southern New England. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
will remain roughly from TX into IA, with lower 60s F dewpoints
along the length of the stationary front.

...TX/OK/KS/IA/MO/IL...

A focused area of severe storm potential will develop south of the
developing low and along the dryline during the afternoon. Although
the wave will be moving away from OK/TX, the dryline should stall
with strong instability developing and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg.
Minimal lift will be required near the dryline to initiate afternoon
storms, possibly before 21Z. Cells should develop from northwest TX
across OK and into southeast KS, and gain strength as 50-60 kt
effective shear acts upon them. Both supercells and bowing
structures will be possible, with areas of very large hail and
damaging winds expected. A few tornadoes may occur given the strong
instability and midlevel lapse rates, despite marginal low-level
wind fields.

Farther north, another zone of supercell potential is evident from
northern MO into IA and western IL late in the day ahead of the
shortwave trough. Here, deep-layer shear vector orientation will be
quite favorable for discrete cells, with hail likely. Any early day
storms may affect warm sector quality, but conditionally, a tornado
will be possible.

...From WI/IL eastward into PA...

Areas of heating and warm advection toward the frontal zone will
result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms erupting over IL,
IN, southern WI, northern OH and into western PA by 21Z. Favorable
deep-layer shear averaging near 40 kt and at least 1500 J/kg MUCAPE
along this zone will favor storms producing hail and locally
damaging gusts. Storm modes may be mixed.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 150518
SWODY2
SPC AC 150516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into
parts of New York.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will spread east across the Midwest on
Thursday, becoming oriented from the Lower Great Lakes to the
central/southern Appalachians by Friday morning. At the surface, a
front will sag south/southeast across the Great Lakes. Modest
southwesterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints from the Mid-South into New York/southern New England.
This should be sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization given
modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.

... New York vicinity...

Modest height falls are forecast across the region during the
afternoon and evening within a low-level warm advection regime.
Moderate to strong deep-layer mid/upper flow will overspread the
moistening boundary layer, supporting effective shear magnitudes of
30+ kt. Heating into the mid/upper 70s will lead to steepening
low-level lapse rates, while cool temperatures aloft (near -12 C at
500 mb) will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. An accompanying
risk of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts is expected.

...Mid-South and Ohio Valley...

Convection posing a risk for marginal hail may be going across parts
of the MO Bootheel vicinity Thursday morning. Persistent warm
advection should allow for airmass recovery by afternoon across this
area and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop during the
afternoon with a continued risk for isolated hail and strong wind
gusts. Additional isolated convection also develop into the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, though the thermodynamic environment
may be more marginal due to possible morning showers and cloud cover
lingering, limiting destabilization. However, if storms are able to
develop, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 170526
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great
Lakes on Friday. A surface cold front will move from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. In its wake, high pressure
will build into the Intermountain West and Plains.

Remnant showers/storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period ahead of the cold front. The extensive cloudcover and
potential outflow from Day 1 storms has resulted in considerable
uncertainty for the Saturday forecast. Most 00Z guidance shows
extensive outflow moving across Ohio during the morning. If this
occurs, additional storm development is not anticipated until
farther east across western Pennsylvania and southwest New York. If
these morning storms/outflow are less progressive, some moisture
advection ahead of the cold front is expected to bring somewhat
greater instability. This could result in some stronger storms, and
potentially sufficient instability for some transient supercell structures.

Some 00Z CAM guidance (NAM/NSSL WRF) depicts low to mid 60s
dewpoints across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Saturday
afternoon. This seems to be the outlier, but if this does occur, a
more substantial severe weather threat, and a greater tornado threat
would exist across western Pennsylvania into southwest New York.
However, only weak instability seems most likely within this zone of
strong shear and therefore, expect damaging wind gusts as the
primary hazard.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 220601
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

... Synopsis ...

A shortwave trough will move northeast along the eastern periphery
of a western US longwave trough. This shortwave will help maintain a
surface cyclone in southern Canada, while a secondary surface low
may develop across southern Minnesota late in the period. A
secondary shortwave will approach the southern Plains late in the
forecast period.

As the shortwave trough lifts northeast, a cold front will
accelerate east across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the
surface front southerly winds will support mid 50F dewpoints as far
north as northern Minnesota and pockets of 60F dewpoints perhaps as
far north as southern-to-central Minnesota.

... Central and Northern Plains ...

Diurnal heating of the moist airmass ahead of the advancing surface
front will yield an increasingly unstable atmosphere during the
afternoon with the 20260422/00Z HREF showing ensemble mean SBCAPE
values approaching 2000 J/kg as far north as the greater Omaha, NE,
vicinity by 20Z. Interrogation of forecast soundings ahead of the
frontal boundary shows a strong cap stretching from Oklahoma
northward into Nebraska and Iowa. This cap does lift during the day
in response to increasing large-scale ascent from the approaching
trough, but thunderstorm initiation will likely require convergence
along the surface front.

This should occur by mid-afternoon anywhere from northeast Kansas
into southern Minnesota. Initially, deep-layer shear is not
particularly strong across the warm sector, but would still support
a combination of multi-cells and supercells. Given the degree of
instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, large-to-very-large hail
would be possible with any of these initial storms. A tornado or two
would also be possible given some low-level curvature in the
forecast hodographs associated with at least a modest low-level jet.

As the cold front continues to move east into the moist and unstable
airmass, additional thunderstorms should develop along the front,
eventually growing upscale into one or more linear systems and a
transition to a damaging wind threat. Vertical shear should improve
during the late afternoon and evening as the mid-to-upper-level
winds respond to the approach trough, yielding a continued tornado
threat with any persistent discrete cell.

... Oklahoma and Northwest Texas ...

A very unstable airmass will develop across the region to the east
of a dryline across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show varying degrees of a cap across Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas. With the strongest large-scale ascent remaining
largely to the north of the area, forcing for ascent will likely
require strong dryline circulations. Given afternoon temperatures in
the 90Fs to the west of the dryline, there is at least some
potential for dryline circulations to break the cap and initiate at
least a couple of storms. Vertical shear profiles will support
supercells capable of very large hail. A highly conditional tornado
threat could develop with any discrete storm that is able to move
off the dryline and into the increasingly moist and unstable
environment to the east.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 270533
SWODY2
SPC AC 270531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The evolution of a long-lived organized cluster accompanied by
potentially damaging wind gusts appears possible.

...Discussion...
Latest model output still indicates that the center of a fairly
broad surface cyclone may undergo further deepening while migrating
northeast of the upper Great Lakes region during this period,
particularly as it reaches the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity,
near the southeastern periphery of an evolving mid-level low.
Surrounding this low, it appears that larger-scale mid-level
troughing, encompassing much of interior North America to the east
of the northern Rockies, may make slow further progress toward the
northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard, while perhaps undergoing some
amplification along an axis southward through the upper and middle
Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday night. This may support modest
surface wave development along a stalling cold front across the
southeastern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley, and contribute
to suppression of mid-level ridging across northern portions of the
eastern Gulf Coast states.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging to the north of a prominent subtropical
high, still centered over southern Mexico, is likely to build across
the southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, downstream of a low
over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern
Pacific. Only a slow eastward progression of this low is forecast,
to the south of mid/upper ridging building northeastward into
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.

...Southeastern Great Plains into Tennessee Valley...

There is continuing spread within the latest model output, but a
consensus of guidance suggests that pre-cold frontal outflow,
generated by convection today through tonight, will remain a notable
feature into and through this period. It appears that the leading
edge of this air mass may curve from parts of the southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley toward the Ark-La-Tex at 12Z Tuesday.
The extent to which this advances southward through the eastern Gulf
Coast states on its eastern flank, while retreating northeastward
through the lower Mississippi Valley on its western flank, remains
unclear. However, it seems probable that it will become a focus for intensifying thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon in
response to boundary-layer destabilization along and to its south,
and forcing for ascent aided by low-level warm advection.

At the same time, a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating
across parts of northeastern Texas through north central Arkansas
may become the focus for stronger convective development, in the
presence of larger CAPE supported by steeper mid-level lapse rates.
More strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air may continue to
inhibit more than isolated thunderstorm initiation farther to
southwest, along the dryline across central Texas into areas
near/south of Del Rio TX.

Strengthening shear with the approach of digging mid-level troughing
on the southern fringe of the westerlies is likely provide support
for a few supercells across the southeastern Great Plains, and
upscale growing and organizing clusters propagating into the lower
Mississippi Valley. There appears a consensus within the model
output that the intersection of this activity with the preceding
outflow boundary may ultimately provide the focus for the most
prominent evolving cluster, which may pose a risk for widespread
strong to severe gusts across parts of Arkansas through the lower
Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday evening.

Too many uncertainties exist to upgrade the categorical severe
threat at this time, but this remains possible in later outlooks for
this period.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 010501
SWODY2
SPC AC 010500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

...FL vicinity...

An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across
the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow
associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer
flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast
to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for
much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the
FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place.

Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front
Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm
mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a
notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across
the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the
CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet
will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear
system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period
convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may
increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain
parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting
convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the
strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid
sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging
wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop,
isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain
given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm
mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 040535
SWODY2
SPC AC 040533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South. Additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...

Upper troughing centered on the north-central U.S. will phase with
an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest on Tuesday. As this
occurs, strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will develop
across the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from
southern Lower MI to a surface low over central OK. A dryline will
extend southwestward from the central OK low into central/southwest
TX. The cold front is expected to develop east/southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from the Northeast to southern AR and
northern TX by Wednesday morning. Two areas of severe potential are
expected to be focused ahead of the surface cold front, one across
parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South and the second across
the Northeast.

...Southern Plains to the Mid-South...

Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward to
the east of the surface dryline and as far north as the MO Bootheel
vicinity. Some morning convection or cloud cover is expected across
parts of southern MO toward the MO/OH River confluence. Persistent
warm advection may result in scattered cloudiness across much of the
ArkLaTex and Ozarks vicinity as well. Nevertheless, modest cooling
aloft by late afternoon will aid in steepening midlevel lapse rates
atop the moist boundary layer, supporting MLCAPE in the 1000-2000
J/kg range. Instability will decrease with northeast extent into the
Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. Convection may tend to
become linear more quickly across the Mid-South where shear vectors
are parallel to the surface boundary. Further south across parts of
AR into northeast TX closer to the surface triple point, low-level
flow may be less veered and shear vectors supporting initially
discrete cells. Any convection that can remain
semi-discrete/cellular will pose a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a tornado or two. With time, convection will evolve into
linear segments as a low-level jet increases and the front begins to
develop southeastward.

The risk is more conditional along the dryline with southwestward
extent across TX. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this area
and the main initiation mechanism will be mixing/dryline
circulations. If storms can develop, hail and strong gusts will be possible.

...Northeast...

A shortwave upper trough over the Great Lakes will develop
east/northeast across Ontario and Quebec through the evening. Strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Northeast as this
occurs. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, with dewpoints
generally in the 40s to low 50s. However, cold temperatures aloft
will foster steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting modest
destabilization during the afternoon/evening (generally less than
1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Increasing large-scale ascent and the approach of
the surface boundary will result in isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. Strong gusts will be the main risk with
storms given the strength of deep-layer flow and a well mixed
boundary layer. However, isolated hail also will be possible given
35+ kt effective shear and 500 mb temperatures near -18 C.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 050509
SWODY2
SPC AC 050507

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX
TO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...

A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will extend from the Upper
Great Lakes to the Southwest early Wednesday. The southern extent of
the trough will develop east toward the southern High Plains to
northwest Mexico by Thursday morning. Strong mid/upper southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the southern and
eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper
Ohio Valley to central TX during the morning. The front is expected
to develop south/southeast through the period, becoming oriented
from the southern Mid-Atlantic to South TX by Thursday morning.
Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across TX
into the Lower MS and TN Valleys, decreasing with northeast extent
into parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Northern TN Valley and southern Appalachians...

Forecast guidance varies, but some showers/thunderstorms may be
ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of AR into northern parts of
the TN Valley within a warm advection regime on the nose a gradually
weakening low-level jet. This activity will likely play some role in destabilization later in the day across parts of the TN Valley into
the southern Appalachians vicinity. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer
shear and a moist boundary layer will be sufficient for at least
some severe risk, including damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
Some tornado risk could also materialize given favorable low-level
shear and 0-1 km SRH increasing to greater than 250 m2/s2 during the afternoon/evening. However, this is less certain given
aforementioned instability issues and later storm timing into the
southern Appalachians.

...TX to MS/AL...

Further south from northeast TX into MS/AL, strong destabilization
is forecast where deep boundary layer moisture and stronger daytime
heating occurs. MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range appear possible
in particular across northern LA into MS. Midlevel southwesterly
flow is expected to increase by late afternoon into the evening as
early capping will be overcome as the surface front begins to
develop south/southeast. Convection along the cold front may quickly
transition to linear/bowing segments given deep shear parallel to
the surface boundary. However, low-level flow in latest model
guidance does not appear to be overly veered, especially near
northern LA into MS. Forecast hodographs indicate enlarged,
favorably curved hodographs across this area. If open warm sector
supercells develop, a risk for tornadoes (perhaps a couple strong
tornadoes) will be possible. Furthermore, steepening midlevel lapse
rates are evident in forecast soundings, along with
elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes.
This indicates any semi-discrete supercells could pose a risk for
large to very large hail. With time during the evening/nighttime
hours, convection should generally congeal into a line or bowing MCS
and spread eastward across the TN Valley toward the southern
Appalachians, posing a risk for damaging gusts. Higher tornado and
hail probabilities were considered across parts of the Lower MS
Valley, however, given uncertainty in storm mode and coverage of
discrete supercells, will hold at level 2 (Slight) risk for now.

Across portions of central TX overnight, some guidance suggests
convection may develop within low-level warm advection as the
western extent of the surface cold front dives southward across the
Edward Plateau vicinity. If storms develop, they would likely be
elevated. Nevertheless, a hail risk could materialize within the
conditional scenario late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 080603
SWODY2
SPC AC 080601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and a few damaging wind gusts are
expected to develop across parts of the southern Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat is forecast along
parts of the Gulf Coast.

...Southern Plains...

At mid-levels, cyclonically-oriented northwest flow will be in place
over the central U.S. on Saturday. Within the flow, a subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains by
early Saturday evening. Ahead of the approaching trough, low-level
moisture advection is forecast ahead of a cold front moving through
the central Plains. A dryline should be located near a triple point
and surface low extending southward into northwest Texas. By late
afternoon, surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F across most of
Oklahoma and north Texas with moderate instability in place.
Low-level convergence will likely become maximized near the triple
point in southwest Kansas and far northwestern Oklahoma, which
should enable convective initiation. Multiple storms are expected to
develop and move south-southeastward across western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas.

The most favorable environment for severe storms is forecast over
southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP
forecasts soundings at 00Z east of the dryline near Altus have 0-6
km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
around 7.5 C/km. This suggests that supercell development with large
hail will be possible. At the surface, temperature-dewpoint spreads
are forecast to be around 25 degrees F. This will result in
high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts. The severe
threat could persist into the early to mid evening, as convection
moves south-southeastward into northwest Texas.

...Gulf Coast Region...

West-southwest flow at mid-levels is expected on Saturday along the
Gulf Coast. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through south
Texas Saturday afternoon and into the Gulf Saturday evening. Another
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Southeast. Warm-advection related storms are forecast to move southeastward
from southern Mississippi and southern Georgia into northern Florida
during the day. These storms could be associated with a marginal
wind-damage threat. Further west across the central and western Gulf
Coast, onshore flow should result in convection along coastal
convergence boundaries during the afternoon. Moderate instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast for isolated severe wind
gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130600
SWODY2
SPC AC 130559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri
Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks...

A mid-level shortwave ridge will move into the upper Mississippi
Valley and Ozarks on Thursday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much
of the eastern half of Kansas. During the day, the airmass will
become moderately unstable as surface temperatures warm. In the
afternoon, low-level convergence will increase along a dryline in
southern and central Kansas supporting scattered thunderstorm
development. A few storms are expected to increase in intensity and
move eastward across central and eastern Kansas during the late
afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range,
0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rate near 8 C/km
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with any supercell that
can become intense. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible. The storms are expected to move eastward into the lower
Missouri Valley during the evening and overnight period, and should
gradually increase in coverage as a low-level jet strengthens.
Although the storms are expected to become elevated, instability and
effective shear are forecast to be strong enough for a continued
isolated severe threat.

...Southern High Plains...

A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern High
Plains on Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near this trough over parts of west Texas Thursday afternoon. Nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates are evident on forecast soundings. This
environment should support isolated severe wind gusts, as a few of
the developing cells mix the stronger flow down to the surface
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)