ACUS01 KWNS 151247
SWODY1
SPC AC 151246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail to very large
hail, severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible
across portions of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes this
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the
eastern Dakotas south-southwestward into the southern Rockies. A
few disturbances will migrate eastward coincident with the trough
with the most notable being over the central High Plains this
morning. The aforementioned disturbance will move east reaching the
mid-upper MS Valley with the trailing southern extent of the wave
moving into the MO Ozarks and OK by daybreak Thursday. A weak
diffuse low will move from northern KS to the southwest Great Lakes
by late tonight. Farther east, an MCV near MO-IL will translate
east and become perhaps a focus for storm activity later this
afternoon across OH-PA. A rather complex forecast is apparent due
in large part to considerable convection and related outflow
permeating the warm sector overnight across much of the Slight-Risk area.

...Iowa into the mid MS Valley...

In the wake of showers/storms this morning from IA southward into
MO, a moist and weakly capped airmass will destabilize through early
afternoon. The eastward approach of the mid-level disturbance will
likely contribute towards scattered thunderstorms developing 19-21z
from near the weak low eastward along the composite outflow/frontal
zone into IL-WI and southward into MO within a weakly capped warm
sector. Forecast soundings show straight-line hodographs over IA
with sizable CAPE in the hail growth zone. The potential for
splitting supercells appears evident with the stronger storms
capable of very large hail and perhaps some tornado risk across IA
and northern MO.

...Ozarks into Oklahoma and north Texas...

Morning raobs showed steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7.5-8 deg C/km)
atop a seasonably very moist return-flow airmass. Models generally
show storm development near the dryline by mid afternoon with
initial development becoming supercellular. Large to very large
hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts. Residual outflow
from overnight convection moving into the Ozarks may play a role in
enhancing low-level shear later today. Forecast soundings show
somewhat limited low-level hodographs with a tendency for a
veer-back-veer signature. Additional storms will favor some
clustering and upscale growth with time due in part to the forecast
hodographs. Nonetheless, all hazards will be possible at least
through the early convective life cycle before the possibility for
wind damage and linear structures perhaps evolve during the evening.

...Southern Great Lakes into the Northeast...

The remnants of an overnight squall line are moving east across
NY-PA this morning with a trailing outflow boundary extending
westward into OH and northeast IN. Moist low levels and the
eastward advection of steeper mid-level lapse rates will act to
destabilize the southern Great Lakes into western PA through midday
and into the afternoon. Forcing for ascent and enhancement of flow
associated with the MCV will potentially focus thunderstorms and aid
in their organization potential beginning this afternoon.
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding this scenario and whether
a mesoscale corridor of higher tornado probabilities is needed
(i.e., northeast OH). Will defer to later outlooks to where perhaps
mesoscale corridors of greater wind/hail threat and an isolated risk
for a couple of tornadoes could develop.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/15/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 161236
SWODY1
SPC AC 161234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New
York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible
with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas.

...Northeast southward into the central Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
mid/upper MS Valley moving east towards the Northeast. A belt of
strong west-southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-65 kt) will overspread
much of the Northeast today in conjunction with the
eastward-migrating shortwave trough. Visible-satellite imagery
shows scattered to broken cloud cover to the south of a west-east
oriented frontal zone extending east from a surface low analyzed
over Lake Huron. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer
(surface dewpoints in the 56-62 deg F range) will result in weak to
locally moderate buoyancy by midday into the mid afternoon (500-1250
J/kg MLCAPE). Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching
disturbance and convergence in the vicinity of the frontal zone will
lead to scattered storm development this afternoon. Ample mid to
high-level flow will favor storm organization, including the
possibility for a few supercells and an organized band of storms. A
risk for large hail and a tornado could accompany the more intense
cells, whereas the wind risk will tend to focus with linear
structures that evolve. An isolated threat for wind damage and
perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland
Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards.

...Mid South...

Satellite imagery shows the trailing portion of the upper shortwave
trough over the western Great Lakes is moving east across OK this
morning. This upper feature and associated mid-level cold pocket
(-16 to -18 deg C at 500 mb) will move across the MO Ozarks and AR
this afternoon. A reservoir of lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints
and strong heating in wake of early day showers and isolated
thunderstorms will favor robust CAPE profiles and elongated mid to
upper portions of the hodograph. Latest guidance shows several
cells developing within a weakly capped airmass by mid afternoon.
The stronger storms will likely become supercells yielding a risk
for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Modest
low-level flow will tend to limit low-level mesocyclone intensity
and the lessen the overall tornado risk. A couple of smaller
clusters may evolve during the early evening with an isolated wind
threat potentially ensuing before this activity weakens by mid
evening.

...Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX...

Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop
beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline. Although
neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected today, some of the
latest model guidance shows isolated to widely scattered storm
development by late afternoon on the northwestern rim of richer
low-level moisture arcing from the Edwards Plateau into western
north TX. Strong heating will likely erode appreciable remaining
convective inhibition by 20-22 UTC. Strong west-southwesterly
100-kt 200-mb flow will elongate hodographs amidst a moderately
buoyant airmass. Widely spaced/isolated supercells will mainly
yield a large hail threat late this afternoon into the early
evening.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 181233
SWODY1
SPC AC 181232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable mainly of damaging
winds will be possible today across the upper Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a large-scale upper trough
over the Upper Midwest into the south-central Plains. An elongated
mid-level vorticity lobe and associated speed max will quickly move
eastward across the Midwest today and reach the Lower Great Lakes
and upper OH Valley late tonight. Farther south, a belt of strong west-southwesterly flow associated with a subtropical jet will
reside over TX.

A cold front extending from a low near James Bay southward through
the Great Lakes and into TX will continue to push east and southeast
through the period. Convective outflow over the OH Valley to the
east of the front will eventually be overtaken by the front later
today as a band of showers/thunderstorms develops over the upper OH
Valley by early afternoon.

...OH Valley into the Appalachians...

Some heating combined with a gradually moistening airmass (55-60 deg
F surface dewpoints) will result in weak destabilization by midday
as convective development ensues near the preceding outflow/wind
shift and front. Ample mid to high-level flow will aid in some
potential for storm organization, mainly in the form of a few
stronger cells and linear bands. Widely scattered strong to severe
gusts capable of wind damage will likely be the primary hazard, but
an isolated risk for hail or a brief tornado is possible with the
strongest cells. This activity will likely weaken by early evening
as it encounters a slightly drier and less unstable airmass with east extent.

...Central Texas...

Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected throughout
much of the day as the cold front rapidly undercuts a moist and
unstable air mass. The 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob shows an 8.2 deg
C/km 700-500 mb lapse rate. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE parcels
rooted in the 850-700 mb layer, with effective deep-layer shear of
50-60 kt. Although an isolated risk for large hail appears to be
the main hazard with the stronger cells, there has been some
indication that a localized risk for severe gusts could accompany
the strongest cores. For short-term details regarding a risk for
hail/wind with a few stronger thunderstorms this morning extending
from the Concho Valley east-northeast towards DFW, reference MCD #490.

..Smith/Dean.. 04/18/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into
tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very
large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a large upper low off the
central CA coast, with an extensive fetch of southwesterly flow
aloft from the base of this low through northern Mexico and the
Southwest States into the southern High Plains. A deep cyclone
exists over central Canada as well. Between these two primary
features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving
southeastward across NE.

Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the Canadian
cyclone, contributing to some deepening and eastward progression. An
associated surface low, currently over northwestern Ontario, will
move eastward as well. The deepening of the upper trough across the
northern Plains and progression of the surface low will force a cold
front southward/southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Middle MO
Valley by this evening, and through the central Plains, and Lower MO
and Mid MS Valleys by early tomorrow. Increasing low-level moisture
is anticipated ahead of this cold front, supporting the potential
for thunderstorms as this front interacts with this moisture and
associated buoyancy.

...Eastern KS into Mid MS Valley and Lower MI...

Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon, both
along the front, which should extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA, and within the warm-air advection regime ahead
of the front. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large hail is the primary risk.

Any thunderstorms that develop within the warm-air advection regime
ahead of the front during the afternoon and early evening should
interact with greater buoyancy (particularly from northeast IL,
northern IL and southern Lower MI where less boundary-layer mixing
could result in slightly higher dewpoints) and moderate vertical
shear. A few stronger, more organized storms are possible in this
area, although weaker upper flow could limit discreteness and result
in a trend towards a more clustered storm mode.

...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...

A sharp dryline is expected to develop from central KS
south-southwestward into northwest TX. Given the veering surface
winds, convergence along the dryline will likely be modest
throughout much of the afternoon. However, some backing is possible
during the evening as a surface low moves eastward across southwest
KS towards northwest OK. Strong diurnal heating will likely erode
most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep lapse
rates contribute to moderate buoyancy. These factors could be enough
to force isolated initiation on the dryline from central KS into
northwest TX. Upper-level flow will be strengthening across the
region throughout the period, and any storms that do form will have
ample deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large to very large
hail would be the primary risk early in the convective cycle, with
dry mid-levels also supporting strong downdrafts as storms begin to
weaken and collapse.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 051253
SWODY1
SPC AC 051252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the
main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More
isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...

Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
moving across central/northeast AR. Outflow associated with this
cluster stretches from north of LIT northwestward between FSM and
FYV into northeast OK. Surface analysis also places a low over
western OK. A cold front extends east-northeastward from this low
through far northeast OK and southern MO, and a dryline extends
southwestward from the low through the Permian Basin. These
boundaries, particularly the cold front and outflow boundary, could
act as a focal points for redevelopment as the airmass across the
region destabilizes amid heating and low-level moisture advection
this afternoon.

A combination of afternoon temperatures in the low 80s, dewpoints in
the mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg) within the warm
sector this afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest
and large-scale height rises are anticipated. Some weak capping may
prevail as well, particularly if the current cloudiness persists.
These factors introduce notable uncertainty into the forecast,
particularly regarding overall storm coverage. Seemingly, these
factors should contribute to a widely scattered, but discrete, storm
mode. The placement and evolution of the outflow may become apparent
as heating begins, with observable trends in cloud cover possible as
well. These factors could potentially reveal a corridor of higher
storm coverage. However, confidence in the placement of such a
corridor is currently low, precluding the introduction of any higher probabilities.

That being said, the kinematic environment should be very supportive
of supercells this afternoon/evening, with strong upper flow
resulting in bulk shear around 60 kt. Any storms that do mature
should be severe and capable of all hazards. Large to very large
hail (i.e. 2"+) is possible early in each storm's convective cycle.
Tornadoes are also possible, particularly from central AR into
western TN where the low/mid-level flow will be strongest. A strong
tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Storms may
eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds
would become the primary severe risk.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...

Early morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast Lower MI,
along a cold front that extends from central Quebec southwestward
through southern IL. This low is forecast to progress northeastward
along the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity as the cold front also
progresses eastward in response to an eastward shift of the parent
cyclone from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. Modest low-level
moisture will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and
Northeast ahead of this cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely
reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with
afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy,
despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and
ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the
destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storm structures. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with a bowing linear mode expected to be dominant (as
shown by much of the convection-allowing guidance). Damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient
updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity
modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well.
Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although
a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 071251
SWODY1
SPC AC 071249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
Deep South Texas.

...Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL...

Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from
far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are
occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a
surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf.
The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and
strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These
conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts
embedded within the predominately linear structures.

This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours
before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the
western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually
shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will
exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress
southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL.

...Carolinas...

Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest,
with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally
less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to
shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind
fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and
associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in
occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold
front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind
fields across the region will support the potential for damaging
gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...

A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where
steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a
stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This
elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining
with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear
from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures
capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms
farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment
remains supportive of large hail.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 081230
SWODY1
SPC AC 081228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More
sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible
across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Central Plains...

Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over western KS
tracking southeastward. Full sunshine will lead to strong heating/destabilization ahead of the associated cold front over
eastern KS and much of OK. Dewpoints in the 50s, coupled with steep
low/mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and the development of scattered thunderstorms along
the front. These storms will track southeastward through the
evening across much of OK and into north TX. Forecast soundings
indicate favorable vertical shear profiles for supercell structures
capable of large hail.

Eventual upscale organization into linear/bowing structures will aid
in a risk of damaging winds as storms persist into the overnight
period across the ArkLaTex. While the overall severe threat should
diminish by this time, storms may occasionally result in damaging
wind gusts and hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. Gusty winds are the primary concern.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 131215
SWODY1
SPC AC 131214

Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this
afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail
risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

...WV/PA/NY...

A large upper trough is deepening as it tracks southeastward across
the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley. The
associated surface cold front is sweeping across OH, and will extend
from central NY into western PA and northern WV later today. Clouds
are currently prevalent across this region, but some
clearing/heating is expected as low-level moisture is transported
into the area. The result will be narrow corridor of sufficient
CAPE for thunderstorm development along the front from NY into WV.
Given the strength of the upper trough and winds aloft, there is
concern for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and
perhaps hail...mainly in the 18-00z period.

...Great Basin...

A second strong and progressive upper trough has moved ashore over
OR/WA and will spread mid-level height falls and large scale ascent
across much of the Great Basin and Rockies today and tonight.
Low-level moisture is very sparse ahead of the system, but pockets
of strong heating from northern UT into eastern ID/western WY and
central MT will result in inverted-v profiles and sufficient CAPE
for isolated charge separation and robust updrafts. CAM solutions
suggest a risk of high-based fast-moving showers and occasional
thunderstorms affecting the region, with the risk of severe wind gusts.

...TX Panhandle...

A surface dryline will become established over the TX panhandle
later today, where temperatures will climb well into the 90s.
Forecast soundings show only modest CAPE and limited risk of
convective initiation over this area. However, any storm that can
persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL
risk for this conditional risk.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)