ACUS02 KWNS 160559
SWODY2
SPC AC 160557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

A potent upper trough from is expected to eject over the Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the region early in the forecast period, with 850-700 mb
flow around 40-50 kt common from parts of OK/KS into WI. At the
surface, forecast guidance has trended a bit further north with the
position of a surface low Friday morning. This low is expected to be
located along the MO River near the SD/IA/NE border, and will
develop northeast into northern WI/MI U.P. by late afternoon. A
trailing cold front will push southeast across Upper MS/Mid-MO
Valley as this occur, becoming oriented from central MI to northwest
MO and southeast KS by 00z. Meanwhile, a second low is forecast to
develop over the TX Panhandle/western OK within strong heating near
a dryline extending southwest from western OK into
west-central/western TX. Ahead of these surface features, a
seasonally moist airmass will be in place, or, in the case of the
Upper Midwest, rapidly advect northward during the morning hours.

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, supported by cool to cold
temperatures aloft (near -16 C at 500 MB across portions of IA/MN/WI
at 21z, and -14 to -12 C further southwest) will overspread the
moist boundary layer. This will result in strong destabilization,
with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg expected across the warm sector.
This kinematic and thermodynamic environment will support robust
convective development near the Upper Midwest surface low
southwestward along the cold front into KS by midday. Initial
supercells are possible, especially closer to the surface low in the
Upper Midwest, and near the triple point/dryline in northwest
OK/south-central KS. More rapid upscale growth into a robust
line/LEWP is expected along the cold front from parts of IA into MO
and eastern KS. Given robust instability and very steep lapse rates, significant damaging wind swaths will be possible. Additionally,
large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete
supercells, and possibly within line-embedded supercells. Low-level
wind profiles will also support a aerially extensive tornado risk,
both with QLCS mesovortex circulations, and with discrete
supercells. A corridor of perhaps greater tornado risk/coverage may
develop near the surface low from northeast IA into central WI.
Low-level SRH will be maximized in this area and forecast soundings
indicate large, curved hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km.
Furthermore, mixing ratios near 14 g/kg and very steep lapse rates
should support robust updrafts with low cloud bases. This are may
become a focused corridor for stronger tornadoes.

Linear convection should continue east across the MS River and Lake
Michigan during the evening and overnight hours, with a gradually
waning severe risk into portions of central/southern IL, Lower MI
and IN. Additional convection may develop during the evening and/or
overnight across parts of TX near the dryline, though this scenario
is more conditional. If storms do develop, large will be the main
risk.

..Leitman.. 04/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 240535
SWODY2
SPC AC 240534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk
for large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of
the southeastern Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
Downstream of an initially amplified, but becoming increasingly
suppressed, blocking ridge, models indicate that the center of a
deep mid-level low now forming over southern Saskatchewan may only
move subtly northward or northwestward through this period. It
appears that the broader cyclonic circulation will continue to
elongate Saturday through Saturday night, with one notable emerging
short wave perturbation accelerating north of the international
border through northwestern Quebec. To the southwest of the
residual mid-level low, a couple of additional emerging
perturbations are forecast to contribute to south-southwestward
digging troughing along and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.

In response to the latter development, a fairly significant short
wave impulse is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, inland of the Pacific coast
through the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley by 12Z
Sunday. Downstream, mid-level heights are forecast to generally
rise with large-scale ridging building across the southern Rockies
through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Models
continue to suggest that this may be slowed a bit by subtle
mid-level height falls associated with a weak short wave
perturbation progressing east of the southern Rockies, through
portions of Kansas and Oklahoma during the day Saturday.

In lower levels, seasonably moist air, supportive of moderate to
strong potential instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
appears likely to remain confined beneath the larger-scale mid-level
ridging. Initially this will be south of the Red River through the
lower Mississippi Valley, along and south of a convectively enhanced
surface front which may become increasingly diffuse through the day.
Models vary with the extent to which this occurs across and north
of the Red River through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but
a dryline is generally forecast to sharpen roughly from the Wichita
Falls TX through Del Rio TX vicinity by late Saturday afternoon,
near the southeastern periphery of broad weak surface troughing.

...Central/Southern Great Plains...

Model disparity concerning the evolution of surface boundaries and boundary-layer moistening/destabilization to the north of the Red
River add uncertainty to this forecast. Stronger mid-level ridging
and capping will remain present to the south of the Red River, as
subtle mid-level height falls overspread parts of Kansas/Oklahoma
through the day.

At some point, it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent aided
by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support increasing
thunderstorm development within elevated moisture return and
destabilization. Latest convection allowing guidance suggests
highest probabilities for this to occur may be well to the north and
east of the dryline, across parts of north central Oklahoma by mid
to late afternoon, when it appears that at least elevated
destabilization may support the risk for large hail, perhaps
occasionally in excess of 2 inches in diameter, in the presence of
strong cloud-bearing layer shear.

Even if the near-surface inflow for this activity begins to emanate
from a more unstable boundary-layer, rather modest to weak low-level
hodographs probably will limit tornadic potential. However,
increasing and consolidating convective development could gradually
organize and become capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts
late Saturday afternoon and evening, while tending to propagate
southeastward across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Arkansas.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 271746
SWODY2
SPC AC 271744

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Large to very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...Southeastern Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley...

Within broad southwesterly flow aloft, a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough is forecast to move from the south-central Rockies toward the
mid MS Valley on Tuesday. Other low-amplitude vorticity maxima may
move from TX toward the TN Valley and Southeast, to the south of the
primary shortwave trough. These features will impinge upon a
reservoir of strong instability extending from the southern Plains
into the lower MS Valley, resulting in a potentially active severe
weather episode Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Elevated convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the
region Tuesday morning, which could pose a threat for large hail and
locally gusty winds, especially within the more favorable lapse
rate/buoyancy environment across the southern Plains into the
ArkLaTex. Strong diurnal destabilization will be possible by Tuesday
afternoon, to the east of a dryline across TX, and along and to the
warm side of an outflow-influenced front extending from southeast OK
toward the mid MS Valley. Evolution of storm development remains
uncertain, but initiation will be possible along the dryline/front
and any other outflow boundaries in place by afternoon.

Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg across TX, and 2000 J/kg
as far east as the ArkLaMiss) and favorable deep-layer shear will
support supercell development, with an attendant threat of very
large hail initially. Modestly enhanced low-level flow from east TX
into the ArkLaMiss will also support some tornado potential, with
some conditional risk of a strong tornado with any sustained
supercell. An increase in storm coverage should lead to development
of storm clusters and potentially an MCS that would spread eastward
into the evening, with one or more swaths of damaging wind possible.
Storms should eventually weaken late in the period as they encounter
weaker instability with eastward extent, but the severe threat could
persist through much of the night with any organized storm structures.

..Dean.. 04/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)