ACUS03 KWNS 160707
SWODY3
SPC AC 160705

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across part of the Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley...

A large-scale upper trough oriented over the Upper Midwest and
Plains will shift east over the Great Lakes, Midwest and TN Valley
on Saturday/Saturday night. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
will overspread the Ohio Valley ahead of an eastward-advancing cold
front. This front should be located from Lower MI into southeast MO
Saturday morning, moving across the Ohio Valley through early
evening. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of
the front. Daytime heating into the 70s and modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates will support weak destabilization (generally less than
1000 J/kg MLCAPE). While instability will be modest, strong low and
midlevel flow will support organized cells and/or line segments
capable of strong gusts. Any discrete cellular activity also may
produce marginally severe hail. These severe risk should gradually
wane during the evening with eastward extent.

...TX to the Lower MS Valley...

Thunderstorms are expected along a southeast-advancing cold front
Saturday afternoon and evening. Deep-layer flow will be oriented
parallel to the front, and convection may largely be anafrontal or
quickly undercut by the front. While weak MUCAPE is noted in
forecast soundings, severe potential is not expected at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 220722
SWODY3
SPC AC 220721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts should be the primary threats.

... Synopsis ...

A persistent longwave trough will remain situated across the
northern US on Friday, maintaining a broad regime of cyclonic
midlevel flow over the western two-thirds of the country. Within
this broad flow, neutral to modest midlevel height rises are likely
across the Southern Plains. This evolution suggests a lack of robust large-scale forcing for ascent, with subtle subsidence potentially
acting as a limiting factor for widespread convective coverage.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

At the start of the forecast period, convective activity may be
ongoing across portions of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas,
southern Missouri, or northern Arkansas along a consolidated outflow boundary/cold front. These storms should slowly weaken during the
morning with the loss of large-scale ascent and a weakening
low-level jet. The outflow boundary/cold front should slowly sag
south through the morning before stalling somewhere in the vicinity
of the I40 corridor. This feature will serve as the primary focus
for subsequent development later in the afternoon, with residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries being a secondary source
of initiation.

South of the frontal boundary, a highly unstable airmass will remain
in place across the warm sector. Strong diabatic heating of a moist
boundary layer will yield pockets of moderate-to-strong instability,
with MUCAPE values potentially in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively modest (30-35
knots), the degree of instability will be sufficient to support
robust updrafts.

Given the modest shear and lack of stronger synoptic support, storm
modes will likely be multicell clusters or transient supercells. Any
persistent cell will be capable of producing large hail and
localized damaging wind gusts

... Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection that develops across Oklahoma and Arkansas during the
afternoon is expected to persist into the evening as it moves slowly east-southeast toward Mississippi and Tennessee. Although
instability is not as great with eastward extent, it should remain
sufficient enough to support some potential for sporadic wind and
hail through the overnight hours.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 030647
SWODY3
SPC AC 030646

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ARKANSAS...

CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...

Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase across the southern
Plains to the Ohio Valley and Northeast as the upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and northern/central Plains and an upper trough over
the Southwest begin to phase. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from southern Lower MI to northern OK Tuesday
morning. This boundary will develop slowly southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from NY to the Mid-South to north-central
TX by Wednesday morning. During the afternoon, a dryline will be
oriented across central TX. Ahead of the surface front and east of
the dryline, increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley into AR. The surface front and
dryline will serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm
development during the afternoon/evening.

...OK/TX to the Mid-South...

Convective development is likely near the surface triple point and
cold front by 00z as forcing for ascent impinges on the moist and
moderately unstable airmass in the eastern OK/AR vicinity.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase through the evening as a
modest low-level jet develops. Any discrete convection that develops
will pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.
However, convection may become linear along the surface front rather
quickly, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Severe potential along the dryline across parts of OK/TX is more uncertain/conditional. Capping and nebulous large-scale ascent
(especially with southwest extent across TX) may suppress
convection. However, if a storm can develop within the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, large hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 040620
SWODY3
SPC AC 040619

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Texas to the Lower MS and TN Valleys...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern
Rockies to the southern Plains on Wednesday. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains into much of the
southern and eastern U.S. ahead of this feature. At the surface, a
cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley southwestward to
southern AR Wednesday morning, with the western extent of the front
sloped across northeast to southwest TX. Ahead of the front, rich
Gulf moisture will be in place with dewpoints generally in the mid
60s to near 70 across TX into the Lower MS Valley, decreasing with
northeast extent. This will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization ahead of the front from parts of TX into MS where
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg is possible. Instability will be
somewhat less with northeast extent across the TN Valley.

Storm mode is somewhat uncertain Wednesday afternoon. If discrete
cells can develop, steep lapse rates, favorable thermodynamic, elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes
suggest supercells with an all-hazards risk will be possible.
However, given deep layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
southward progressing front, convection may tend to become linear
quickly. This would increase damaging wind potential. Given
uncertainty in storm mode, declined introducing a CIG 1 area for
hail. In general, convection should develop during the afternoon and
spread east/southeast with time through the overnight hours, with an
accompany severe risk.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS03 KWNS 080729
SWODY3
SPC AC 080728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west Texas
east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat is
expected to develop over parts of the eastern Gulf Coast.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
through the central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances
southward across the southern Plains. South of the front, surface
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will contribute to moderate
instability by afternoon from a dryline in west Texas
east-northeastward across much of north-central and northeast Texas.
As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases
near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the moist airmass during the afternoon
and evening.

Forecast soundings across parts of west and north-central Texas late
Sunday afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range with 0-6 shear around 35 knots. This, combined with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, should be favorable for a
large-hail threat. In addition, steep 0-3 km lapse rates should
support an isolated wind-damage threat, especially if a cold pool
can organize. The cold front position is expected to be a bit
further south than is currently forecast. This projected position is
in relatively good agreement with the most reliable guidance, which
adds confidence in a potential severe threat area in west,
north-central and northeast Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast...

Westerly mid-level flow is forecast on Sunday across the Gulf Coast
region. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the
central Gulf Coast eastward to Florida. Some solutions move a subtle
shortwave trough eastward across the Southeast on Sunday. This would
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the
afternoon near the coast from southeast Louisiana eastward to
southern Georgia and northern Florida. Instability and deep-layer
shear is expected to be strong enough for a marginal severe threat
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS03 KWNS 130730
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys...

Mid-level flow will be westerly over the central U.S. on Friday.
Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the central Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture
advection will result in a pocket of moist air from the central
Plains eastward into the lower Missouri Valley, where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F. Within this
moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by
afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop on the western edge of
the low-level moisture, from north-central Oklahoma into central
Kansas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening.
Additional storms are expected to form further east into eastern
Kansas and Missouri, along the northern edge of a low-level jet.

Late Friday afternoon, forecast soundings in the Kansas City area
show a favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms. MLCAPE
is forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and wind damage. An isolated severe
threat may also develop eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestward into north-central Oklahoma. Instability is expected
to be somewhat weaker in these two areas, which should keep any
severe threat more isolated and marginal.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)