ACUS02 KWNS 200549
SWODY2
SPC AC 200547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday.
Potential for severe weather appears low.

... Synopsis ...

Midlevel ridging will be in place from the eastern Great Basin into
the Plains at the start of the forecast period, while persistent
northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Upper Midwest and Ohio
Valley. Farther west, an upper trough will gradually advanced inland
across California into the Great Basin by the end of the period.

At the surface, a broad area of high pressure centered over the
Southeast and adjacent Atlantic will maintain southerly flow across
the central US. This will promote a gradual moisture recovery across
the central Plains into the southern Great Lakes. A weak frontal
boundary pushing south through portions of the central Plains and
Great Lakes will denote the northern edge of the moisture return.

... Lower Great Lakes ...

Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone may be delayed until
later in the day or evening as moisture slowly returns northward.
While relatively cold temperatures aloft should support steep lapse
rates, the quality and depth of the boundary-layer moisture is
expected to be the biggest unknown. The NAM is the most aggressive
with the depth and quality of the moisture return, and if moisture
quality is close to what is shown in the NAM, enough instability
should materialize to take advantage of the stronger vertical shear
to support a few organized cells capable of gusty winds or small
hail. However, most model guidance is less aggressive with the
quality of the moisture return so no probabilities have been added
at this time.

... South-central US ...

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period. Modest vertical shear and elevated instability may support a
couple strong thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds.
However, overall thunderstorm intensity should wane through much of
the period as upper ridging overspreads the region.

... Western US ...

As the upper trough moves inland, ascent will increase across the
Pacific Northwest, northern California, and portions of the Great
Basin. Within the Central Valley and nearby terrain, pockets of
diurnal heating, combined with cool midlevel temperatures may
support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Despite this modest instability, weak vertical shear should limit
any organized severe potential.

..Marsh.. 04/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 230601
SWODY2
SPC AC 230600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scatteed severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from afternoon into
the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/00Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 280529
SWODY2
SPC AC 280527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast
vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong
storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic.

...Discussion...
Models still indicate that mid-level ridging will build inland
across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period,
but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the
Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave
impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia
coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may
accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas,
but models continue to substantively vary concerning this motion.

A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern
Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression,
but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as
southern Texas through Texas Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday
night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is
forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic
Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin
to form near/north of the Great Lakes region.

The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will
likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging
across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake
of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest
that a modest surface low evolving along this front may migrate
from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great
Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a
developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late
Wednesday afternoon into evening, but there is notable spread within
the guidance concerning this evolution.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley into north central Gulf Coast...

Uncertainties abound concerning the convective potential for this
period. The continuing presence of mid-level ridging and warm
elevated mixed-layer air may be inhibitive to more than isolated
sustained thunderstorm development east of the Rio Grande River, to
the south of Del Rio, through much of Deep South Texas. Across the
upper Texas coastal plain through much of the Gulf Coast states,
conglomerate convective outflow from thunderstorm activity today
through tonight may slow destabilization ahead of the southward
advancing cold front, and there is spread concerning where this
outflow may end up by 12Z Wednesday.

Still, subtle short wave perturbations within moderate to strong west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, near/north of the periphery of
the subtropical ridging, may provide support for thunderstorm
initiation with boundary-layer destabilization. Guidance suggests
that this may include at least pockets of moderate CAPE, sufficient
for isolated to widely scattered intense convection which could
evolve into supercells and/or small organized clusters with
potential to produce severe hail and wind.

...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...

Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the
initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and
the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue
Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective
potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede
destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate
boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and
forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet
could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This
may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential
for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of
the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 04/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 030505
SWODY2
SPC AC 030503

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will dig southward across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest on Monday. At the same time, a upper low near CA and
attendant trough will pivot eastward toward the Southwest. At the
surface, low pressure over Ontario will develop northeast toward
James Bay while a trailing cold front moves southeast across the northern/central Plains and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity.
Meanwhile, a second surface low is forecast to deepen in the
vicinity of western KS/OK with a dryline extending southward across
central KS/western OK and west-central TX. Modest southerly return
flow will transport mainly 50s to near 60 F dewpoints northward
across OK/eastern KS into MO. More modest boundary layer moisture is
expected ahead of the cold front across portions of the Midwest.

...Eastern KS toward Lake Michigan and western OH...

Modest boundary layer moisture and uncertainty in timing/location of
the surface front contribute to uncertainty in severe potential for
Monday. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft will support steep
midlevel lapse rates and a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE appears
likely ahead of the front. A lead shortwave impulse will migrate
across the OH Valley during the day. This may provide sufficient
forcing for ascent for isolated thunderstorm development within an
uncapped and modestly sheared airmass. Strong storms could produce
small hail and gusty winds. Additional strong storms are possible
during the afternoon further to the northwest near the surface front
from eastern IA toward Lake Michigan. However, boundary layer
moisture will likely be even more limited across this area, leading
to weaker instability. Nevertheless, a well mixed boundary layer
could support strong wind gusts.

Stronger ascent will arrive after 00z across the central Plains and
Mid-MS Valley vicinity in tandem with an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple
points in central/eastern KS and into MO as the surface cold front
drops southward. This activity may pose a risk for hail and strong gusts.

...Southwest OK vicinity...

Some forecast guidance develops thunderstorms near the dryline late afternoon/early evening across the southwest OK vicinity. Large
scale ascent will remain nebulous across the region and capping may
preclude thunderstorm development. However, strong heating west of
the dryline and strong convergence in model guidance are noted. If a
storm could break the cap, a severe risk could develop. However, coverage/temporal risk would likely be limited and confidence in
this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 101722
SWODY2
SPC AC 101720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.

... Overview ...

As a western midlevel ridge amplifies, a midlevel shortwave trough
will slowly progress southeast across eastern Texas into Louisiana
on Monday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly sag
south across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent associated with the
midlevel vorticity maximum will interact with the trailing portion
of a surface front allowing the development of a surface trough/low
that will move east along the front.

... Southeast US ...

Along and ahead of the surface front, temperatures will warm into
the upper-70Fs to low-80Fs with dewpoint temperatures rising into
the upper-60Fs to low-70Fs. Convergence along the front will result
in scattered thunderstorm development, perhaps by late morning.
Strong cloud-layer shear, tall, skinny buoyancy profiles, and
precipitable water values around 1.75 inches will support a
marginally severe wind threat. Depending on the degree of heating of
the airmass ahead of the front, a marginal hail risk may also
develop. The most likely area for a concentration of wind and hail
occurrence will be where the surface front intersects any inland
moving sea breeze across southern South Carolina, Georgia, and
northern Florida.

Farther west across southeast Louisiana, convective coverage is less
certain. Although scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the
sagging front, additional thunderstorms may develop in response to
the deep-layer ascent with the midlevel vorticity maximum and
inverted trough/surface low. However, there is significant
disagreement within the 20260510/12Z HREF guidance as to the
coverage of any convection. Given the presence of a midlevel
vorticity maximum and a surface boundary, will lean toward the
wetter solutions. A similar kinematic and thermodynamic environment
will exist here as farther east, supporting primarily a marginal
wind threat.

..Marsh.. 05/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 110555
SWODY2
SPC AC 110553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas and far
northeastern Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois,
northwest Indiana and far southeast Wisconsin.

...Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwest Great Lakes...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move southeastward through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the
surface, a low will move southeastward across Wisconsin as a cold
front advances southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front in the
afternoon as surface heating takes place and low-level convergence
becomes more focused. The storms are forecast to move toward an
instability axis located from southeast Kansas to north-central
Illinois. Along this axis of instability, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 500 to 1500 J/kg range by late afternoon with 0-6
km shear mostly in the 45 to 55 knot range. Low-level lapse rates
are also forecast to become steep just ahead of the front. This
environment should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat, with
hail and strong wind gusts possible. The strongest instability and
steepest mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be further southwest
into parts of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas, where a
locally greater hail threat will be possible in the late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 120541
SWODY2
SPC AC 120539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts are expected on
Wednesday across parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians,
northern Rockies and Great Basin. Hail will also be possible in
parts of western Montana.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...

An upper-level trough will move east-southeastward across the Great
Lakes on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet streak translates southeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a low will move
eastward across southwestern Ontario as a cold front advances east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will contribute
to weak instability as surface temperatures warm during the day.
Increasing low-level convergence near the front will lead to
scattered thunderstorm development, with additional storms forming
due to topographic forcing in the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to become steep in
the afternoon peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range, which should
support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Northern Rockies/Great Basin...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move through the northwestern
U.S. on Wednesday as a 60 to 80 knot jet streak passes eastward into
the northern Rockies. At the surface, a trough will develop from
western Montana southward into Idaho and Utah, ahead of a cold front
passing through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface trough, an
axis of instability will be in place by afternoon as surface
temperatures warm into the 80s F. In response, thunderstorms will
form in the higher terrain from western Montana southward into the
deserts of eastern Idaho and northern Utah. Near the instability
axis, low to mid-level lapse rates will be very steep likely
exceeding 9 C/km. This will support a threat for isolated severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur in the northern Rockies.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)