ACUS03 KWNS 250729
SWODY3
SPC AC 250728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...A PORTION OF
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Monday afternoon and evening. At least initially, this may
include several evolving supercells potentially capable of producing
strong tornadoes across parts of southeastern Iowa into central
through southern Illinois and adjacent east central and southeast Missouri.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that significant surface cyclogenesis will proceed
across the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes region during this
period, as a notable short wave perturbation and associated 50-70 kt
cyclonic 500 mb jet streak progress northeast of the middle/lower
Missouri Valley region. Beneath a plume of warm/capping elevated
mixed-layer air nosing northeastward across the middle Mississippi
Valley, low-level warm sector moistening is generally forecast to
contribute to moderate to strong potential instability. Although
the details of the potential convective evolution remain unclear,
the environment appears likely to become supportive of organized
severe thunderstorm development, including supercells. Even if
convection grows quickly upscale into one or more clusters/lines,
embedded supercell structures will probably still pose potential for
producing strong tornadoes. If an initially discrete supercell mode
is maintained for a sustained period, tornadic potential could
maximize, with a few long track, particularly damaging tornadoes possible.

At this time, it appears that strongest thunderstorm development may
initially focus in forcing for ascent associated with
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the nose of the
initially capping elevated mixed-layer across parts of southeastern
Iowa into central Illinois. Enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs along this corridor, perhaps coinciding with a zone of
stronger differential surface heating associated with a modifying
outflow boundary, may become conducive to several strong tornadic
supercells before convection tends to grow upscale while propagating southeastward into Monday evening.

A dryline structure extending southwestward through portions of
eastern Missouri may also support initially discrete supercell
development, before activity tends to grow upscale ahead of an
advancing cold front while spreading into the lower Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys through Monday evening.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

$$

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