208
FXUS64 KMRX 291059 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- Moisture returns today, with periods of showers/storms tonight
and Saturday, some of which may produce heavy rainfall and
flooding.

- A dry weather pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

A surface front sits south of our area, with a mid/upper level ridge
extending SE to NW across the region. Through the night, 850 mb
winds will shift from NE to S in response to an approaching low
pressure system over AR/MS. Low level moisture will be increasing
through the day, but the mid/upper ridge will keep rain chances
mainly in our southern sections. Forecast soundings show quite a
pronounced gradient of PW across the area this afternoon, from 1.9
at CHA to 1.1 at TRI. By tonight, the mid/upper ridge will have
retreated and convection should blossom as a shortwave trough moves
into the TN Valley. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles suggest efficient
warm cloud processes, and a surface front in the area will help
focus and sustain convective development. The main concern with this
precip will be locally heavy rainfall and training cells that could
dump 1-2 inches in an hour. The main period for this threat is
expected to be from midnight to noon Saturday. By Saturday
afternoon/evening, a closed low over New England and the Mid-
Atlantic region will rotate southward and push drier air into our
area, lowering rain chances through Sunday. The NBM's likely PoPs on
Sunday will be cut back to a chance/slight chance.

An East Coast trough and a building ridge over the MS River to Great
Lakes region will result in mainly dry conditions in East TN for
most of next week, with temperatures staying fairly close to normal.
Rain chances may return late in the week as the ridge aloft breaks
down and Gulf moisture advances northward into the lower MS region
and western TN Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

A band of SHRA/TSRA should break out INVOF KCHA between roughly
19z-22z this afternoon, slowly moving north through late tonight.
Confidence in them affecting a terminal is highest at KCHA so have
gone with a TEMPO group there. Maintained PROB30 groups elsewhere
where confidence in coverage is a little less. The other forecast
item of note is that low-end MVFR CIGS should move north up the
TN valley after midnight tonight. TAFs will be out shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 66 82 65 / 40 80 80 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 67 79 63 / 20 70 60 10
Oak Ridge, TN 85 66 79 61 / 20 70 70 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 62 81 57 / 0 30 40 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

810
FXUS64 KMRX 291828
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

- Moisture returning today with showers and a few storms tonight
into Saturday, some of which may produce very heavy rainfall
and isolated flash flooding.

- A drier weather pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

A nearly stationary surface front sits south of our area, with a
mid/upper level ridge extending SE to NW across the region and a
shortwave trough just to our southwest. This shortwave will lift NE
and the frontal boundary will nudge back north into our area
tonight.

Deep moisture is spreading back north into our area, and PW Values
will be around the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range for much of the area
overnight into Saturday. Cape values do not look high but the tall
skinny CAPE profiles suggest efficient warm cloud processes and the possibility of high rainfall rates, and the surface boundary lifting
back into our area will act to focus and sustain convective
development as well. Localized flooding will be a concern tonight
into at least Saturday morning, especially where any training
cells develop. While flooding issues are likely to be isolated,
there is enough potential for significant flash flooding to
warrant a flash flood watch for tonight into Sunday. The highest
threat looks to be in a swath across and near the northern Plateau
across the central Valley into the central TN mountains, but
there is enough of a threat further south to include those areas
as well.

By later Saturday into Saturday night an upper low over the NE CONUS
will rotate southward and push the frontal boundary back south.
Surface high pressure building in from the north will bring drier
air into the area. Sunday looks drier, although there still may be
some convection especially south closer to the front. Sunday night
into Monday the upper trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen as
additional energy dives south out of Canada. A cold front will
move south across our area Monday, along with scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

Drier air and high pressure will move in behind the front, setting
up a drier period for Tuesday through at least Thursday along with temperatures near seasonal normals. Rain chances may tick back up
by Friday as moisture begins to increase again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Will see showers and a few thunderstorms spreading from south to
north, but it is still questionable how much makes it to TRI
before the precipitation shifts back south. Will try to time
highest probability periods with prob30 and/or tempo groups. No
mention of thunder at TRI as probability there is lower. Also
expect cigs to drop to MVFR (and possibly lower) at CHA and TYS
for period later tonight into early Saturday. Improvement back to
VFR is likely by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 82 64 79 / 80 70 20 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 80 61 81 / 90 80 10 50
Oak Ridge, TN 65 80 60 80 / 90 80 0 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 82 56 81 / 60 40 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
afternoon for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening through
Saturday afternoon for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky
Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-
Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North
Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier
Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-
Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

013
FXUS64 KMRX 301046 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
646 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Periods of showers/storms continue through Saturday morning,
some of which may produce heavy rainfall and flooding.

- A drier weather pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper low spinning over Middle/West
TN, with a negatively-tilted trough extending SE across AL/GA.
This is producing upper divergence over East TN, which will
maintain convective activity through the night in a moist air mass
of PW values near 2 inches. The HRRR shows showers and storms
increasing in coverage and intensity later tonight, around 09Z in
the northern and central TN Valley, between TYS and TRI. Rain
rates of 1-3 inches per hour will be possible where storms move
slowly or train over the same locations. Flash flooding will
continue to be a concern, especially for areas that had heavy rain
this afternoon, such as Blount/Sevier counties and
Morgan/Scott/Campbell counties. The Flood Watch will continue.

Through Saturday morning, precip will shift southward as the large
closed low over New England moves south and establishes a NW flow
across the region. This will bring drier air into the area that will
keep dry conditions into Sunday. Chance PoPs return late Sunday with
a weak shortwave trough in the NW flow. Another disturbance in the
NW flow and a southward-moving cold front brings better rain chances
on Monday.

Drier air and high pressure will move in behind the front, setting
up a drier period for Tuesday through at least Thursday, along with temperatures near seasonal normals. Rain chances may tick back up
by Friday as moisture begins to increase again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Widespread SHRA/TSRA continue across East Tennessee this morning
along a stationary front that will shift south through the morning
and early afternoon hours. KTRI may already be on the northern
edge of the activity expected the rest of the day so have them out
of the rain by 15z. It will be a few hours later before rain
shifts south of KTYS, and between 20z and 00z before SHRA move
back to KCHA and points south. Categories will be a mixed back
in/around rainfall, then VFR after SHRA wrap up. Not expecting fog
or low clouds tonight due to dry northerly surface flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 66 80 64 / 70 10 40 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 61 82 63 / 80 10 50 60
Oak Ridge, TN 81 60 81 63 / 70 0 50 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 56 82 60 / 40 0 10 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-
Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-
McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest
Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-
Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

414
FXUS64 KMRX 301823
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
223 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 221 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish this
afternoon.

- Additional showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected at
times Sunday afternoon into Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible which may lead to localized flooding, and a
few storms may bring strong gusty winds mainly Monday into
Monday evening.

- A drier weather pattern develops during the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

The flooding threat continues to decrease this afternoon as drier
air works north to south across the area and the weak frontal
boundary still over northern portions of our area slowly sags
further south. The flash flood watch has been allowed to expire on
schedule. Isolated convection may linger south into early
tonight, but for the most part tonight will be dry across the
area.

A weak impulse in the flow will bring an increase in showers and a
few storms again later Sunday into Sunday night especially near the
nearly stationary front, with the highest chances currently looking
to be across the south and central areas Sunday afternoon and then
across central areas Sunday night although these details are still
in flux. Models disagree on the details, but they generally show
the deeper moisture spreading back north with model PWAT values
reaching the 1.5 to 1.8 inches across much of the area and what
limited CAPE is available looks to be again distributed in a tall
skinny profile. Given the weak boundary still over the area to act
as a potential focus for convection and given that some areas are
already rather wet, there is a threat of very heavy rain rates and
localized flooding. This will bear watching, and will be added to
the HWO for now.

For Monday and Monday night heights will be falling as an upper
trough digs south, and a stronger cold front will drop into and then
through our area. Model CAPE values approaching or exceeding 1500
J/kg and an increase in bulk shear suggest the possibility of a few
storms becoming strong to marginally severe especially across
southern and central portions of our area on Monday or Monday
evening with damaging winds the primary threat. This threat will be
mentioned in the HWO as well.

A few showers or storms may linger especially north and east Tuesday
as additional short wave energy moves through the upper trough, then
drier and cooler air will move in and the dry conditions will then
persist at least through Friday along with a slow warming trend. By
late in the period, shower and thunderstorm chances may increase as
we move into the weekend, although model trends have been to delay
the moisture return and confidence is not high for the details that
far out.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

A few showers or thunderstorms around mainly CHA early, and will
include a tempo thunder group at CHA . Outside of any
showers/storms, conditions should generally be VFR. However, late
in the period some low VFR or MVFR cigs will move back in at CHA,
and a few showers will be around as well. Winds will generally be
light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 80 64 84 / 20 40 40 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 82 63 81 / 10 30 50 70
Oak Ridge, TN 60 82 63 82 / 10 40 50 70
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 82 60 80 / 0 0 50 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

198
FXUS64 KMRX 311056 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 648 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected at times Sunday
afternoon into Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible which may lead to localized flooding, and a few storms
may bring strong gusty winds mainly Monday afternoon.

- A drier weather pattern develops during the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A front is currently pushing south through the area, marked by a
dewpoint gradient from around 70 south to around 50 north. It will
be south of our area by sunrise, and a drier low level air mass will
be in place for most of today. A ridge building along the eastern
slopes of the Appalachians will keep the eastern portions of front
across GA, but the western portions will lift northward from AL into
Middle TN and near our Plateau counties with a NW-SE orientation. As
a midlevel shortwave trough approaches, convection will likely
initiate near the front this afternoon. In the NW flow, this
activity will track across mainly our southern sections through the
evening. Surface CAPE isn't very impressive, only 500-800 J/kg, so a
severe threat is unlikely.

The next round of showers and storms arrives on Monday afternoon in
the form of an upstream MCS. This round of convection appears to
have a potential to reach severe levels, with MLCAPE on the order of
2000 J/kg, effective shear of 40-50 kt, and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg.
Low level winds from the NW and fairly weak do not favor adequate
SRH for a tornado threat. Wind/hail appear to be the main threats
with storms. The caveat is that there is poor agreement on how the
CAMS are depicting this activity, with the HRRR being the most
aggressive to bring it in our area, while the HiRes-ARW keeps it
farther west in Middle TN into northern AL. The FV3 has a later
arrival time than the HRRR. The wording in the HWO will be beefed up
for this potential threat.

On Tuesday, we will see a deep northerly flow as the closed low over
the Mid Atlantic region becomes dominant. There could be some
scattered to isolated showers/storms in our eastern sections Tuesday afternoon. Beyond that, A large blocking ridge will be over the
region, keeping dry conditions with a warming trend for the rest of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

The latest high resolution guidance has a later arrival time of
ISOLD to SCT SHRA/TSRA in East Tennessee than previously forecast.
Expect convection to initiate near the Cumberland plateau between
20z-22z, then shift east into the TN valley. Still expect
coverage to be scattered enough to preclude going with more than a
PROB30 at KTYS and KCHA, with lower confidence at KTRI. Regarding
flight categories, MVFR is expected this afternoon with
approaching SHRA/TSRA. Low confidence in whether MVFR CIGS linger
overnight, so will stick with a return to VFR levels after showers
dissipate late this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 64 85 65 / 40 30 30 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 64 82 61 / 40 40 50 20
Oak Ridge, TN 82 63 82 60 / 30 40 60 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 61 81 56 / 0 10 50 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

487
FXUS64 KMRX 311841
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
241 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected through this
evening. A low-end risk for isolated flooding remains due to recent
heavy rainfall.

- Additional storms expected on Monday, a few of which could be
strong to severe. If all things line up, the environment is
supportive of winds up to 65 mph and 1 to 1.5 inch hail.

- A drier weather pattern develops beyond Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A weak midlevel shortwave will allow for isolated to scattered
showers and storms across the area through this evening. Sounding
profiles show long and skinny CAPE this afternoon, efficient heavy
rain environment, but PW values aren't as high as yesterday.
However, PWs are still enough to support some moderate to locally
heavy rainfall. Combine this with the recent flooding and heavy
rains, and a low-end risk for isolated flooding will be in place
through this evening.

The next round of showers and storms arrives on Monday
afternoon/evening in the form of an upstream MCS. As the previous
forecast mentioned, this round of convection appears to have the
potential to reach severe levels. MLCAPE values still show around
2000 J/kg, effective shear around 35 kts, and DCAPE over 1000
J/kg.

Low level winds profiles do not look supportive of a tornado threat.
Straight line wind damage up to 65 mph and 1 to 1.5 inch hail appear
to be the main threats with these storms. However, as the previous
forecast mentioned, CAMS are still in disagreement on where this MCS
tracks. Some are still showing it impacting portions of our area
(mainly south of I-40), while others are showing it missing us
entirely, due to the MCS being further to our west. We should
have a much better idea on timing and potential downstream
location impacts once this system has actually formed tomorrow
morning across Missouri and how it evolves thorugh the day. Stay
tuned!


On Tuesday, we still may see some scattered showers/storms across
the area due to moisture on the backside of a deep trough. Beyond
that, A large blocking ridge will be over the region, keeping dry
conditions with a warming trend for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

A few showers and storms may impact CHA and TYS this afternoon and
evening but not confident enough to include TEMPO so going with
PROB30. Otherwise, mostly VFR overnight but MVFR is certainly
possible across portions of the area. It really depends on how
much convection we get this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 85 64 81 / 40 50 40 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 82 60 80 / 60 60 30 10
Oak Ridge, TN 63 83 59 80 / 60 60 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 81 56 78 / 60 40 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

246
FXUS64 KMRX 010600
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Storms may bring strong gusty winds and large hail this
afternoon in southern sections, but the threat is conditional
on upstream storms moving into our area.

- After a chance of showers Tuesday, a dry weather pattern will
set up across the region during the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

The main focus of this forecast period will be the threat of storms
this afternoon, associated with an upstream MCS that is expected to
develop in the Mid MS Valley later tonight. The track of the MCS is
in question, which will determine its impacts in our area in the
afternoon. CAMS are still not in great agreement on whether it will
enter our CWA or not - the FV3 and NAM-Nest keep it to our SW, while
the HRRR develops storms along its NE outflow that track across
the central and southern TN Valley. It is notable that the most
recent HRRR runs are keeping the strongest convection in West and
Middle TN/MS/AL. Confidence is low that we will get storms, but
the atmosphere will support severe storms with damaging winds and
large hail if they do happen. At CHA, MLCAPE values in NAM
soundings are around 1800 J/kg, effective shear values are around
40 kt, DCAPE values are around 1100 J/kg, and WBZ heights are
around 10 kft. Timing of this potential threat appears to be
between 18-22Z. Low level wind profiles will not support a tornado
threat. Hopefully the CAMS will come into better agreement on the
track of this MCS with later runs when it has formed.

On Tuesday, we will see a deep northerly flow as the closed low over
the Mid Atlantic region becomes dominant. There could be some
scattered to isolated showers/storms in our eastern sections Tuesday
afternoon as a shortwave trough extending from the close low rotates
across the Appalachians. The cold temps aloft under this trough will
generate scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm.
Some small hail cannot be ruled out either, given the cold temps
aloft creating midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km and WBZ heights
around 8 kft.

For Wednesday and beyond, a large blocking ridge will be over the
region, keeping dry conditions with a warming trend for the rest of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A thunderstorm complex is expected to push southeast through
TN and into northern AL/GA this afternoon and evening. There is
uncertainty in the exact track but confidence is high enough to
include a PROB30 for TSRA at both KCHA and KTYS. Chances are
higher at KCHA but will wait for better agreement in guidance
before including any TEMPO or prevailing TSRA at either site.
Otherwise, MVFR CIGS will prevail through mid morning before
lifting to VFR. Guidance also indicates that VFR will prevail
after the passing of any convection later today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 66 81 59 / 70 40 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 61 80 56 / 30 20 20 10
Oak Ridge, TN 83 60 80 55 / 30 20 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 77 51 / 10 10 30 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

934
FXUS64 KMRX 011737
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
137 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Severe threat across southern areas this afternoon has greatly
diminished. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers and storms
possible across the area through this evening. A few storms may
be strong to severe.

- After a chance of showers Tuesday, a dry weather pattern will
set up across the region during the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Early morning low-level clouds, combined with convective debris
clouds from early morning storms across middle tn, have limited
the instability across the southern TN Valley. The severe threat
has greatly diminished across this area through the rest of the
afternoon.

The main severe threat will be further west across Alabama.
Areas along and north of I-40 saw some partial clearing earlier
today. These areas will have the better chances to see some
isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and
evening. With moderate effective shear of around 35 kts and DCAPE
values around 1000 J/kg, an isolated strong to possible severe
storm can't be ruled out. Showers and storms diminish this evening
and overnight with loss of heating. The main threats with any
stronger storm will be isolated damaging wind gusts from 50 to 60
mph and 0.5 to 1 inch hail.


On Tuesday, we will see a deep northerly flow as the closed low over
the Mid Atlantic region becomes dominant. There could be some
scattered to isolated showers/storms in our eastern sections Tuesday
afternoon as a shortwave trough extending from the close low rotates
across the Appalachians. The cold temps aloft under this trough will
generate scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm.
Some small hail cannot be ruled out either, given the cold temps
aloft creating midlevel lapse rates near 7.5-8 C/km and WBZ heights
around 8 kft.

For Wednesday and beyond, a large blocking ridge will be over the
region, keeping dry conditions with a warming trend for the rest of
the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

MVFR conditions likely to move into CHA soon and remain most of
the afternoon. PROB30 for MVFR at TYS and TRI if thunderstorms
pass over the terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions tonight after
the rain and storms have ended. Winds will generally be out of the
west, transitioning to north, 10kts or less through the period,
outside or any thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 81 59 80 / 40 10 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 80 56 79 / 20 20 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 60 80 55 79 / 20 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 77 51 80 / 10 30 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

078
FXUS64 KMRX 020525
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
125 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- A chance of showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon
mainly for the Southern Appalachians, northeast TN, southwest
VA, and southwest NC. Small hail and gusty winds are possible.

- A dry weather pattern will and set up across the region for the
rest of the week. Slightly below normal temperatures through
Thursday with drier air, then a return to near normal
temperatures next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A fairly stout backdoor shortwave trough will swing overhead later
this morning and afternoon. This will support and help fire isolated
to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms, mainly along the
Southern Appalachians. That chance also extends over Southwest NC,
northeast TN, and southwest VA this afternoon until about sunset.
CAPE will be in the neighborhood of a couple of hundred, and lapse
rates will be steepening under colder temps aloft. M-L LRs on a
couple of forecast soundings indicate near 7 C/Km. So, small hail
cannot be ruled out, as well as gusty wind potential with DCAPE in
the 700s. Surface temperatures will be a bit cooler today, as
well as dew points markedly lower.

Wednesday until the middle of the weekend will be a welcomed change
to the weather pattern, especially for areas that have seen copious
amounts of rain lately. Ridging aloft will shift over from the west,
while surface high pressure near the Great Lakes drifts to the Mid-
Atlantic, with time. This will keep the forecast area dry for
multiple days. Slightly below normal temperatures can be expected
today through Thursday, with a return to near normal temperatures
Friday onward. Humidity also won't be as bad as what it has been at
the start of the aforementioned days. A slow return to 60s and some
70s dew points can be expected next weekend when return flow tries
to develop out ahead of increasing chances for precipitation
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Incoming disturbance aloft will spark off ISOLD to SCT SHRA this
afternoon and perhaps a few TSRA as well. This will be primarily
over the mountains and in the northern TN valley. Included a
PROB30 at KTRI to account for this but it doesn't seem necessary
elsewhere. Otherwise, tightening surface pressure gradients will
lead to gusty NE winds at KTYS and KCHA later today. Flight
categories should remain VFR through the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 59 81 59 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 55 80 57 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 80 55 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 51 81 53 / 50 10 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

983
FXUS64 KMRX 021847
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 242 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected for
northeast TN, southwest VA, and southwest NC this afternoon. Any
thunderstorm could lead to gusty winds and small hail.

- A dry weather pattern will and set up across the region for the
rest of the week. Near to slightly below normal temperatures
through Thursday, then a return to slightly above normal
temperatures Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

An impulse traversing mean flow aloft will allow for a deepening
upper trough to swing through the southern Appalachians this
afternoon and tonight. Latest radar mosaic depicts scattered showers
with isolated thunderstorms developing as this happens. Convection
will remain primarily focused around the higher terrain and far
northeast Tennessee into southwest Virginia as we head into the
evening. Most valley locations and the Cumberland Plateau will
remain dry.

Latest RAP soundings depict mid-level lapse rates increasing to 6.5-
7.0 C/km and wet-bulb zero levels falling to near 8kft. Small hail
will be the main concern with isolated thunderstorms. DCAPE between
700-1000 J/kg suggest evaporative cooling could also contribute to
locally gusty winds, though, MLCAPE 500J/kg or less will limit
severe concerns. Overall, quiet weather is expected overnight. Drier
air and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the
50s. Patchy fog is also possible in and near river valleys.

We finally see a pattern shift to drier weather and near normal
temperatures as an upper level ridge and high pressure settle in
tomorrow. The dry pattern will continue through much of the week and
even into the weekend, though a gradual warming trend is expected as
H5 heights increase Friday. Southerly flow will enhance moisture
advection into the region Sunday and into the new week. This will
bring a return of precip chances as the northeast trough axis makes
an attempt to extend further southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Predominant VFR conditions for the period. Breezy northerly winds
are expected at CHA/TYS this afternoon, becoming light at 5kts or
less tonight into Wednesday as high pressure settles in. There
will be scattered showers with isolated thunder in vicinity of
TRI for a few hours this afternoon. Reduced visibility may occur
if a storm directly impacts a terminal. A brief PROB30 is used to
highlight the time of greatest probability.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 81 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 55 80 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 80 53 84 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

996
FXUS64 KMRX 030517
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- A dry weather pattern will set up across the region for the
rest of the week. Slightly below normal temperatures through
tomorrow with drier air, then a return to near normal
temperatures into the weekend.

- Precipitation doesn't return to the area until around Sunday,
with unsettled weather sticking around through the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

From today until the middle of the weekend, will be a welcomed
change to the weather pattern, especially for areas that have seen
copious amounts of rain lately. Ridging aloft will shift over
from the west, while surface high pressure near the Great Lakes
drifts to the Mid-Atlantic, with time. The blocking high will keep
the forecast area dry for multiple days. Slightly below normal
temperatures can be expected through tomorrow, with a return to
near normal temperatures Friday onward. Humidity also won't be as
bad as what it has been at the start of the forecast period. A
slow return to 60s and some 70s dew points can be expected this
weekend when return flow tries to develop out ahead of increasing
chances for precipitation Sunday until the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Only forecast concern for the 06z TAF package is whether fog will
affect any terminals through the morning hours. Otherwise, light
winds and VFR categories with FEW-SCT250 at best for cloud cover
are expected through the period at all sites. Going back to the
fog potential, KTRI seems like the only site it might affect.
Satellite imagery shows some present in the river valleys of far
southwest VA and northeast TN. Pattern wise, I think there's
potential for it to affect KTRI so I've added some TEMPO 1/2SM
there.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 57 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 80 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

788
FXUS64 KMRX 031747
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
147 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 146 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- A dry weather pattern will set up across the region for the rest
of the week. Low dew points will keep weather generally pleasant.

- Rain chances return as we head into next week, but certainty is
lower due to model discrepancies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Currently a sunny afternoon across the region with temperatures
remaining a bit below seasonal normals and dew points in the 40/50's
keeping any mugginess at bay. Quiet weather pattern remains in place
through the back half of the week and into the weekend as high
pressure sits over the region and the higher dew points stay off
west of the Mississippi River. Moderate temperatures and lower dew
points will remain in place as well through much of the weekend
allowing overnight lows to drop into the 50/60's most mornings.

Late in the weekend the pattern tries to get broken up by a low
trying to strengthen over Texas and move eastward. Some
discrepancies on how far east this system can go before it begins to
move off further to the north as the ridge looks to try and remain
in place. The low will try and bring in a surface front which could
end up draped across the Tennessee or Ohio Valley next week.
Wherever this front ends up will act as a focus for enhanced shower
and thunderstorm activity with the warmer temperatures expected
along with it. But it gets a bit uncertain with regards to the
location of the attached low and some other weak systems looking to
try and move under the ridge centered over the middle portion of the
United States. Will keep rain chances present through the first half
of next week, but once we get into the weekend the picture should
hopefully become clearer and rain chances can be trimmed down to the
more likely periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with light winds and
a few passing high clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 59 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 57 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 84 57 87 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

576
FXUS64 KMRX 041056
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- The dry weather pattern will persist for the rest of the week.
Low dew points and a touch below normal temperatures to start,
then gradually warming temperatures and increasing humidity.

- Rain chances return as we head into next week, but certainty is
lower due to model discrepancies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The center of the upper level ridge is nearly vertically stacked
above the surface high pressure, at this time. The upper level
ridge will slowly meander to the southeast, while the surface high
will slowly edge off of the Carolina coasts by this weekend. As a
result of the blocking high, our area will be in a dry pattern
with gradually increasing temperatures and dew points.

Early next week, a southwest upper level low will try to phase in
with the mean flow draped across the northern tier of the US. Odds
are good that precipitation chances return to the area as early as
Sunday, but the weak flow paired with a possible west to east
frontal boundary over us or to the north, makes any details at this
time fairly uncertain. Return flow will bring increased atmospheric
moisture, decreasing the stability next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and light winds will
prevail through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 84 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 57 86 60 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

348
FXUS64 KMRX 041734
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
134 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- The dry weather pattern will persist for the rest of the week. Low
dew points and a touch below normal temperatures to start, then
gradually warming temperatures and increasing humidity.

- Rain chances return as we head into next week, but certainty is
lower due to model discrepancies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Currently another sunny day with moderate temperatures and lower dew
points and relative humidities. The upper level ridge bringing this
weather will slowly move off to the southeast, while the surface
high will slowly edge off of the Carolina coasts by this weekend. As
a result of the blocking high, our area will be in a dry pattern
with gradually increasing temperatures and dew points.

Moving into next week, an upper level low across the southwest will
try to merge with the northern flow across the US/Canada border
region. Odds are good that precipitation chances return to the area
as early as Sunday, but the weak flow paired with a possible west to
east frontal boundary over us or to the north, makes any details at
this time fairly uncertain. Return flow will bring increased
atmospheric moisture, decreasing the stability next week.

With no major strong synoptic level forcing heading into next week
expect the models to continue to have a hard time with regards to
exact location of the places that will get precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Clear skies, light winds, and VFR conditions expected for the next
24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 59 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 86 60 86 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

759
FXUS64 KMRX 051048
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
648 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- The dry weather pattern will persist through Saturday with low
rain chances returning Sunday afternoon. Temperatures and dew points
will be increasing this weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
every day next week mainly in the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is centered over the Southeast U.S. At
the surface, high pressure is centered over the Southeast and Mid-
Atlantic. Dry weather will continue through at least Saturday.
Temperatures and dew points will be on the rise Saturday and Sunday
as southwesterly flow continues. By Sunday, a system moving through
the Northeast brings a cold front into the Ohio Valley but it fails
to make it this far south. An upper level low gets somewhat stuck
near KS/MO as a blocking ridge extends from the Southeast U.S. to
Ontario, Canada. The remnants of this upper low will make it into
the Ohio Valley Tues/Wed.

Rain chances start to increase Sunday afternoon mainly in the
Cumberland Plateau and Southwest Virginia. Then isolated to
scattered showers and storms are likely every day next week. This
activity will be hit and miss and mainly during the peak heating
hours of the afternoon and evening. It looks like Tuesday and
Wednesday may have the best coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Mid to high level clouds will continue for the rest of the day.
Southerly winds will increase at CHA with a more WSW direction at
TYS and TRI. Winds will be generally less than 10 kts at all 3
sites. Winds will become calm again tonight with minimal cloud
cover.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 63 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 62 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 83 61 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

228
FXUS64 KMRX 051818
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
218 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- The dry weather will persist through Saturday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day
Sunday through the coming work week especially in the
afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft over the southeastern
CONUS will continue to provide us with dry and seasonably warm
conditions through Saturday. A system moving through the Northeast
will bring a cold front into the Ohio Valley but this front will
stall to our north. A weak upper level low over the Plains will be
slow to move this weekend as a blocking ridge extends from the
Southeast U.S. to Ontario Canada, but eventually the remnants of
this upper low will make it into the Ohio Valley by the Tues/Wed
time frame. The associated weakness in the ridge over our area
will then move off to our east as the upper ridging re-asserts
itself over the region for the end of the work week.

Moisture will be increasing by Sunday, and chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to our area as weak short wave energy
moves across the region. Models generally show limited instability
at best (outside of the NAM which right now is an outlier), but PWAT
values are forecast to be above 1.8 inches at least in the south and
any CAPE will likely be of the tall skinny variety resulting in the possibility of heavy rainfall rates with any storms that develop.

No strong synoptic forcing is currently in the forecast for the
coming work week. However, given the increased moisture and
instability we will see chances for showers and storms each day
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Right now, shear
generally looks weak and chances for severe storms look very low
overall. However, model PWAT values will be around 1.7 to 1.8
inches or more at times, and there will be the possibility of very
heavy rainfall that could cause localized flooding in any areas that
see repeated or prolonged periods of heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will
generally be out of the south and southwest and less than 10kts
during the day, with light to calm winds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 88 68 86 / 0 0 10 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 88 67 87 / 0 0 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 61 86 65 85 / 0 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

532
FXUS64 KMRX 061051
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
651 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- The dry weather will continue today.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day
Sunday through the coming work week especially in the
afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is centered over the Southeast U.S. At
the surface, high pressure is over the Southeast. By this afternoon,
a trough in the upper levels and a low pressure system near the
surface will move into the Northeast bringing a boundary across the
Ohio Valley. Dry weather will continue today. Temperatures and dew
points will be on the rise today and Sunday as southwesterly flow
continues. By Sunday, the aforementioned boundary remains well to
our north. An upper level low gets somewhat stuck near KS/MO as a
blocking ridge extends from the Southeast U.S. to Ontario, Canada.
The remnants of this upper low will make it into the Ohio Valley
Tues/Wed.

Rain chances start to increase Sunday afternoon but remain low.
Then, scattered showers and storms are likely every day next week.
This activity will be hit and miss and mainly during the peak
heating hours of the afternoon and evening. It looks like Monday,
Tuesday and Wednesday may have the best coverage as the ridge drifts
eastward. Overall, the pattern looks weak for forcing but
instability will be high with increasing moisture (PWAT values near
2 inches) and a high sun angle this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Some mid to high clouds will continue through the period with VFR
conditions. Winds will increase to near 10 kts from the south at
CHA and more WSW at TYS and TRI. Winds will decrease tonight with
clearing and calm winds again overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 68 83 69 / 0 0 60 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 67 87 69 / 0 0 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 86 65 85 67 / 0 0 10 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

784
FXUS64 KMRX 061743
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 142 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day Sunday
through the coming work week especially in the afternoon/evening
hours.

- Lots of moisture in the atmosphere means we could see periods of
heavy rainfall and eventually flooding this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Currently another day of calm weather as we remain under the ridge
sitting over the southeastern United States. But winds have turned
more southerly so our dew points and temperatures are ticking up as
a low/trough tries to move north through the plains states into the
midwest. This system will try and make inroads into the ridge that's
been over the southeastern US, but looks to lose out and remain
over the Ohio Valley as we head into next week.

Rain chances do increase tomorrow and pretty much through the rest
of the upcoming week as we get into a more hot and humid pattern.
Generally near or above normal temperatures and dew points in the
upper 60's to low 70's will be in play for most of the upcoming
week. There will be a few disturbances expected to move through and
provide times of enhanced coverage, but even without that the very
warm temperatures means we should expect to see the return of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Much of next week looks
to see an extremely saturated atmosphere with PWAT values hovering
around the 2 inch mark until late in the week. This means that any
showers and storms that develop will be very effective rain-makers.
The profile soundings show tall, skinny CAPE which hints at
efficient rain production, and would also tend to limit the severe
threat a bit (although not completely eliminate it). There is no
major strong synoptic forcing for longer range models to try and
depict, so it's hard to pinpoint where the highest risk for flooding
may be next week. As the week continues on and we see some places
get multiple rounds of moderate to heavy storms expect to see the
threat for flash flooding increase, but confidence on timing and
location at this time is very low until we see where early week
storms and rainfall end up occurring.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions, expected for the next 24 hours. Will start to see
some rain trying to creep in around KCHA in the last couple of
hours of this TAF cycle, and eventually will need to introduce
rain chances at all sites for tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 83 69 82 / 0 60 40 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 87 69 84 / 0 10 20 70
Oak Ridge, TN 65 85 67 83 / 0 10 30 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

137
FXUS64 KMRX 071048
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
648 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day
through the coming work week especially in the afternoon/evening
hours.

- Lots of moisture in the atmosphere means we could see periods of
heavy rainfall and eventually flooding this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Warm and muggy conditions are likely through the entire week this
week, with daily rain chances each day. At the end of the week or
entering next weekend, ensemble clusters suggest a needed front
might bring the next break from the summer mugginess.

Before we can get to next weekend, we have to at least survive this
week. Main weather related hazard will be the potential for flash
flooding, primarily on Monday. A weak shortwave trough serving as
remnants from the main trough ejecting to our north will be coupled
with a weakening subtropical jet over the southeast today and
tomorrow. Remnant showers and a few thunderstorms will enter
southeastern Tennessee from AL/GA in the evening, but not currently
expecting that bout to pose a flash flood risk, though certainly the environment itself is favorable.

By Monday though, PWATs Knoxville and south will be pushing close to
2" per Euro Ensemble/GFS/HRRR, near the records for early June for
this area. Euro EFI situational awareness charts detail this as an
atmospheric moisture equivalent of 1 in 10 year for this time of
year. The resulting skinny CAPE profiles and 15k foot 0C heights
spell for very efficient warm rain processes in showers and
thunderstorms that may form. As a result, there's near consensus
across the CAMs for heavy rainfall, on the order of at least a
couple inches of rain. The drawback is since there's no strong
forcing, this will again be a very scattered nature to the
thunderstorms. Also a good reminder to not take any individual CAM
run as gospel for where the bulls-eyes will be, just that there's
potential for very quick and heavy rainfall in the thunderstorms on
Monday.

Tuesday we still have remnant troughing above us, and though forcing
is I think less on Tuesday than Monday, the available atmospheric
qualities still spark concern for flash flooding if thunderstorms
are able to fire during the day and evening.

After Tuesday we really lose a lot of the available forcing
mechanisms outside of the summer sun getting us to convective
temperatures or orographic induced lift. This also means we're most
likely to hit near 90F Wednesday through Friday as lack of
thunderstorm starters equates to being able to hit forecast highs
without interference. The NBM still carries likelies through the
peak afternoon heating each day Wednesday through Friday, but
without any strong forcing, it's hard to nail down at these time
steps with any confidence on true coverage each day. Should storms
fire though the flash flood risk will still be present.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The main aviation concern for the day will be increasing coverage
of showers and storms around CHA later this afternoon. TYS and TRI
are expected to remain dry with WSW winds of 10 kts or less with
clouds around or above 5,000 feet AGL. For CHA, reductions to MVFR
are possible throughout the afternoon with winds remaining from
the south. By early evening, rain coverage will decrease, but MVFR
is likely and has been introduced. It is unclear if this will
continue the whole night, but at least some periods of MVFR are
anticipated. Winds will be nearly calm at all 3 sites overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 69 79 68 / 70 70 90 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 69 81 68 / 10 50 80 40
Oak Ridge, TN 86 68 79 67 / 10 60 80 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 86 66 / 0 0 40 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

424
FXUS64 KMRX 071828
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each day
through the coming work week especially in the afternoon/evening
hours.

- Very heavy rainfall rates and an increased risk for flash
flooding is expected Monday, especially over our TN and SW NC
counties

- The potential for very heavy rainfall which could lead to
localized flooding can be expected at times through the coming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026
Warm and sticky conditions are expected for the upcoming week into
the weekend, with chances for showers and storms each day.

The main concern will be the potential for localized heavy rainfall
and flooding over the coming week. Moisture is already surging in
the southern portion of our area, and a few showers/storms that are
moving in may contain very heavy rainfall and the threat of
localized flooding this afternoon into tonight mainly across our far
SW counties. The threat of flooding looks heightened on Monday as
weak short wave energy traverses the area. Models portray a very
moist airmass with PWAT values surging to around 2 inches across the
much of the area, which are near record values for early June in our
area. Flow is weak and storms are expected to move slowly, and the
expected modest CAPE looks to be of the tall skinny variety which
coupled with high freezing levels will favor very efficient warm
rain processes and the potential for very heavy rainfall rates. CAMS
are showing the potential for localized areas of very heavy
rainfall, and rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour look
possible. Pinpointing the exact locations where very heavy rainfall
will occur is not possible at this time, although the risk looks
highest across the Plateau and our southern and central counties.
Will issue a flash flood watch for our TN and NC counties for Monday.

PWAT values are forecast to remain elevated for much of the coming
week as no strong drying is forecast anytime soon, although ensemble
data indicates values will be a bit lower than on Monday. Daily
showers and storms can be expected each day, especially during the
afternoon and evening in response to peak heating. There will
continue to be the potential for very heavy rainfall rates and
localized flooding, especially in areas that see repeated or
prolonged periods of heavy rain.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be mainly south early in the period
then diminish for a period overnight before increasing again and
spreading north at least as far as TYS. Expect mainly MVFR/IFR
conditions at CHA, with VFR/MVFR at TYS and mainly VFR at TRI.
Will try to time best chances for thunder with tempo and prob30
groups at CHA and TYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 80 68 84 / 70 90 60 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 80 68 84 / 30 80 50 80
Oak Ridge, TN 69 79 67 83 / 40 90 50 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 86 67 84 / 0 60 50 70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
East Polk-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-
North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-
Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-
Union-West Polk.

Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-
Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan-
Unicoi-Washington TN.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

909
FXUS64 KMRX 081055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Very heavy rainfall rates and an increased risk for flash flooding
is expected today, especially over East Tennessee and potentially
southwest North Carolina.

- Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the remainder of the work week especially in the
afternoon/evening hours. A low risk exists for localized flash
flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Still looking like today will be the most likely timeframe of the
week for flash flooding, but it is by no means a certainty to see
flooding. The presence of near record precipitable water values,
combined with the weak upper troughing, should allow for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. CAMs have been pretty persistent in
showing this scenario, even if their direct QPF output isn't
necessarily worrying. Still though, with the highly saturated
environment, tall skinny CAPE profiles, and high freezing levels
will allow for generous hydrometeor production (fancy talk for lots
of rain drops). WPC's excessive rain outlook has us in a slight
risk, which seems pretty reasonable given the CAMs' persistent
scattered nature. Storms may begin firing early this morning and
then chances will remain high for much of the day, before sunset
likely brings about widespread dissipation of the storms. Shear
values are pretty low given the overall weak wind profiles above us,
so not expecting severe thunderstorms.

As we progress through the week, we'll keep our muggy atmospheric
profiles, but we'll gradually lose the little forcing we have as
ridging builds aloft. Guidance struggles to fire anything on
Thursday, and that may well be the lull day of the week in terms of
coverage. The other days all have low to medium high chances for at
least some scattered activity, though terrain may be what fires
first before the valley later into the afternoons. Given the high
moisture content hanging around, a non-zero flood risk will exist
for the week as well. As we hit the weekend we'll be looking for
signs of any upper support from the jet to our north over the Great
Lakes or any weak shortwaves in the flow aloft to help bring relief
or a pause in the June weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Reductions are already being observed at CHA with TYS near MVFR as
well. Rain will continue to increase from the south with CHA
likely remaining MVFR or IFR through much of the day. For TYS,
reductions are also likely but not until the afternoon hours.
Coverage of showers and storms will be a lot less at TRI, but any
activity could lead to MVFR conditions. Overnight, all sites are
forecast to be primarily MVFR with IFR possible at CHA but left
out for the time being. Winds during the day will be generally
from the southwest but less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 69 85 69 / 90 60 60 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 68 84 69 / 90 40 60 40
Oak Ridge, TN 80 68 83 68 / 90 40 60 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 67 83 66 / 70 40 70 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount
Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-East Polk-Hamilton-Knox-
Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Union-West Polk.

Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-
Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
Northwest Greene-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan-
Unicoi-Washington TN.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

600
FXUS64 KMRX 081816
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
216 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 212 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Very heavy rainfall rates and an increased risk for flash
flooding is expected this afternoon into early evening,
especially over our TN and SW NC counties.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue each day
through next Monday, and some storms may contain very heavy
rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The threat of flash flooding will continue this afternoon into
early evening and the flash flood watch will be left as is for
now. While the threat of flooding still looks isolated this
afternoon into early evening, there continues to be potential for
extremely high rainfall rates given the near record PWAT values
combined with the tall skinny CAPE profiles, high freezing levels,
and slow storm movement. CAMS continue to show the potential for
localized high rainfall totals, and although exact locations for
any very heavy rainfall is still unclear there appears to be an
enhanced threat from portions of the Plateau across our central
CWA and adjacent southern counties near and south of a poorly
defined, nearly stationary, summertime boundary. This boundary
currently looks to be draped somewhere across NE TN not far from
Morristown.

PWAT values will still be quite high despite a small tick down on
Tuesday, and the atmosphere overall is still similar to today with
very heavy rain rates favored. There will be a slight increase in
flow that should result in slightly faster storm motion. However,
despite the expected uptick in storm motion, given the very moist
environment and another heavy rain favorable CAPE profile along
with a deep warm cloud layer, very heavy rainfall rates and
localized flooding will be possible again Tuesday. Right now no
additional flash flood watch will be issued for tomorrow, but
trends will be monitored.

The warm and sticky conditions are then expected to continue for the
remainder of the week and possibly through the weekend into the
beginning of next week, with chances for showers and storms each day
some of which will contain torrential downpours. The weak upper
trough that is moving across the region today and Tuesday will move
off to our east and northeast by midweek and be replaced by a
resurgence of the upper ridge. This may allow for a bit of a lull
in the convection mid week, but at least isolated to scattered
coverage is still expected Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday through
the weekend into next Monday models have been suggesting a front may
be approaching although the details about timing and how much
progress it makes are still very uncertain. However, there may be
more upper support from the jet to our north or shortwaves in the
flow aloft as the ridge breaks down and the front approaches, which
would bring another uptick in convection but also introduces the
possibility of some drying if the front actually makes it to our
south and east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

We will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms around
early in the period, then they will diminish before chances trend
upward again late in period. Highest chances overall look to be at
CHA and TYS. Will have mainly VFR/MVFR conditions in the forecast,
although the details are uncertain and IFR (or lower) conditions
will be possible at times at least briefly. Will try to time the
periods with the higher thunderstorm probabilities with prob30 and
tempo groups.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 86 70 89 / 50 70 40 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 85 70 88 / 70 80 40 40
Oak Ridge, TN 68 84 69 87 / 60 90 30 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 67 85 / 30 80 50 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for Anderson-
Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-
Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-
Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-
Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-
Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

058
FXUS64 KMRX 091059
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
659 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 653 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue each day
through the end of the forecast period, and some storms may contain
very heavy rainfall.

- Persistent mugginess and increased heat each day until a cold
front arrives sometime between Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Unsettled weather pattern continues with chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day pretty much through the entire forecast
period. SW-W flow will also persist until a cold front the end of
the week brings a brief bout of relief. Although parameters aren't
as strong today for a widespread Flood Watch issuance, that doesn't
mean isolated flash flooding couldn't still occur. PWs on 00z HREF
and RRFS depict values under 2 inches, when yesterday showed
multiple 2 inch and above values, way above climo norms. A MRGL to a
SLGT risk of excessive rainfall from WPC, much like yesterday, will
cover the forecast area today. A stationary boundary and shortwave
will continue to support development into today.

After today, temperatures will rise a couple of degrees each day
with 70s dew points sticking around. Ridging will build in behind
the shortwave, thus, showers and storms may be of the typical summer
variety with better chances over the terrain and a dying down in
activity during overnight hours. Still cannot rule out isolated
flash flooding given the environment.

A cold front at the start of the weekend may bring a subtle and
temporary relief of highs in the valley maxing near 90 and dew
points in the low to mid 70s in the coming days. Dry weather doesn't
appear will follow the front, with daily precipitation continuing,
according to models.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Reductions have already been seen at CHA and TYS with rain moving
towards TRI. Additional rain is expected throughout the day with
reductions likely at TRI later this afternoon. Primarily VFR is
expected mid-day into the early evening, but any rain over the
terminals is expected to cause reductions. Overnight, IFR/MVFR are
likely again. Winds will be generally from the southwest today and
calm overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 70 89 71 / 60 20 20 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 70 88 71 / 70 30 50 10
Oak Ridge, TN 84 69 88 70 / 80 40 50 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 67 85 68 / 90 50 80 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

379
FXUS64 KMRX 091748
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
148 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy rains will
present a threat of isolated flash flooding this afternoon and
again tomorrow. A front will approach on Friday for another
chance of scattered storms across the area too.

- Frontal passage on Friday into Saturday will give a short
reprieve of muggy conditions over the weekend.

- Another slug of high PWAT air moves in on Monday for more
chances of showers and thunderstorms and associated heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Currently have a nearly stationary boundary situated north to
south from our far western VA counties, southward through the
Smokies and into our western NC counties this afternoon. Regional
radar imagery shows a line of showers roughly aligned with this
boundary and slowly shifting east with time. Aloft,

A weak upper trough is working its way through the Appalachian
region today, skirting the northern periphery of a deep south
ridge anchored over the Louisiana coastline. At the surface, a
line of showers is aligned with a nearly stationary boundary that
is situated below this trough, stretching from our VA counties
southward through the Smokies and into far western NC this
afternoon. PWATs remain around or slightly above 1.9". With
wetbulb zero heights within a few hundred feet of freezing levels,
both of which are above 13k ft AGL, the combination of efficient
warm rain processes and high PWATs will incentives high rainfall
rates in what convection is present through this evening and the
overnight period. For areas around and north of the I-40 corridor,
both 1hr and 3hr flash flood guidance is generally below 2
inches. While widespread flash flooding isn't expected, the
environment is certainly supportive of heavy rain and at least an
isolated flash flooding threat. I don't believe a watch is
necessary, but we'll certainly have to monitor things closely. For
tomorrow, similar conditions will be present, with another
nocturnal convectively induced shortwave moving out of Kentucky
and across the northern half of our CWA tomorrow morning into the
afternoon hours. This will support isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms and another isolated flash flood threat.

The atmosphere dries out some Thursday as the ridge expands
overhead. Some typical summertime convection over the terrain is
expected but if I had to bet I think stay dry in the valley.

On Friday a weak front will approach from the northwest. SPC
currently has areas from our far northern VA counties, further
northeast highlighted in a Day 4 risk area. This seems reasonable
as shear and instability increase. Forecast soundings suggest
there's a possibility of some isolated severe storms further south
in our CWA though, with damaging winds being the concern there.
However, details are still a little too uncertain to get terribly
concerned about it just yet. Post-frontal dry air filters in over
the weekend for more comfortable conditions. Then, Sunday into
Monday there's a possibility of more heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

ISOLD to SCT SHRA/TSRA will continue across East Tennessee through
this evening, with additional ISOLD SHRA possible overnight. Have
PROB30 and TEMPO groups to account for ongoing convection
affecting terminals in the next few hours but there's enough
uncertainty in coverage and placement of overnight storms to
prohibit including them now. Expect flight categories to drop to
MVFR levels late tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 89 71 91 / 20 20 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 87 71 91 / 40 40 20 20
Oak Ridge, TN 69 87 70 90 / 50 50 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 83 68 88 / 60 80 30 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

526
FXUS64 KMRX 100627
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms continue today, with best chances over
northeast TN and southwest VA. Isolated flash flooding still
possible. Precipitation more confined to higher terrain tomorrow.

- Persistent mugginess and increased heat each day until a cold
front arrives sometime between Friday and Saturday. Low 80s for
highs possible early to middle of next week.

- Unsettled weather continues into next week, even after the cold
front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Today we will be transitioning from troughing and a persistent
boundary to those features exiting, ridging building in, and thus
PWs dropping. CAMs try to bring in precipitation to southwest VA as
early as sunrise or after. PoPs for much of the area will be the
lowest they've been in a couple of days. Far southern parts of the
CWA may even skip precipitation today. Thus, best chance of
accumulating precipitation will be for northeast TN into southwest
VA today. Even though isolated flooding threat is still there, 00z
HREF and RRFS do show PW values dropping the closer we get to the
end of the day today, which makes sense given the ridging trying to
build in.

With the ridge building in, showers and storms may be of the typical
summer variety tomorrow with better chances over the terrain and a
decrease in activity towards nightfall. Much of the forecast area
outside of the mountains could very well remain dry.

Temperatures will rise a couple of degrees each day through Friday,
with 70s dew points unfortunately sticking around. A cold front
around the start of the weekend will bring a brief bout of relief
from highs in the valley maxing near 90 and those nasty dew points.
Dry weather doesn't appear will follow the front, with daily
precipitation continuing into the end of the forecast period,
according to models. Although, deep troughing next week suggests we
may possibly get a break from the 90s temperatures after Friday; low
80s are being hinted at.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the night
with some lingering chances for reductions. Patchy fog development
is possible, but fog has been left out of the TAFs for the time
being. Throughout the day, southwesterly to westerly winds will
increase, along with developing showers and storms by the
afternoon. This will be most noticeable around TRI with VCTS
added, in addition to a PROB30. TYS has some chances for impact,
but only a PROB30 was added. CHA has relatively low chances for
rain in general.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 71 92 72 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 72 92 73 / 20 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 91 71 / 20 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 85 68 90 69 / 70 30 30 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

215
FXUS64 KMRX 101808
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
208 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- A front arrives on Friday, and should spark off plenty of
showers and thunderstorms. A few of these could produce some
damaging winds, mainly north of the I-40 corridor.

- Persistent hot and muggy conditions continue through Friday
before that cold front moves through and gives a break in the
humidity for part of the weekend.

- The first half of next week looks unsettled, with multiple
rounds of heavy rains possible. Details are uncertain as to
whether there's a risk of flooding at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

In general, there are two primary concerns for the next 7 days.
The first is the potential for some severe storms capable of
damaging winds on Friday. And the second is going to be the first
half of next week when a wet pattern sets up across the southeast
United States and brings with it several periods of heavy rain.

For the rest of today and tomorrow, upper ridging will largely
suppress convection. Terrain induced convection, as is occurring
in the southern plateau, the Smokies, and parts of our Virginia
counties, will likely occur again tomorrow afternoon. But
otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions. Like today, tomorrow will
be another hot and muggy day. Undercut NBM dewpoints a bit today
and tomorrow to lower afternoon heat indexes, but these were minor changes...limiting dewpoints to 72-73 degrees verses the roughly
75 degree max dewpoints in the NBM. Resulting heat indexes remain
in the mid 90s which is reasonable.

Thursday night into Friday a potent shortwave will lift northeast
from the central plains into the western Great Lakes region. This
will push a front our direction on Friday. Models show convection
firing up during peak heating in the vicinity of the plateau and
southeast Kentucky before shifting east and expanding in coverage
through the afternoon and evening hours. While better shear will
exist further to our north, closer to the parent shortwave, the
instability present should make up for the lacking shear in terms
of severe chances. Forecast MLCAPE values in excess of 1,500 -
2,000 J/kg are not uncommon on Friday, both spatially across our
forecast area and in terms of being present in multiple guidance
sources. Overall, it looks favorable to see some strong to severe
storms capable of damaging winds. Doesn't look like a widespread
severe weather event, but I would not be surprised at all for
there to be a few warnings issued.

Behind the front we'll get a brief reprieve in the humidity as dry
air filters in from the north Saturday and Sunday. Then attention
turns to next week which could prove quite wet. Behind the Friday
shortwave upper flow becomes zonal across much of the CONUS
through the weekend, with broad high pressure across the Gulf
states. Early next week however, the upper ridge shifts back off
the east coast of Florida while upper troughing sets up over the
western CONUS while a front approaches from the Midwest and stalls
out somewhere near the Appalachians and TN Valley. This will
produce persistent southwest flow overhead for much of the first
half of the week, with multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected. It's too early to get concerned about this
just yet, but we'll need to monitor this closely in the coming
days as this type of pattern could produce some flooding issues.
As always though, details aren't certain just yet and those
details will matter a great deal so just keep an eye on the
forecast for the time being.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR flight categories should prevail through the period. ISOLD
SHRA and possibly even a TSRA or two, will be present mainly in
the higher terrain both this afternoon and tomorrow as well, but
they shouldn't affect any terminals. There's a hint of MVFR CIGS
in some of the guidance again tonight, but I'm not confident
enough to include them right now. Did put a SCT015 in at KTRI
to hedge that direction though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 92 72 91 / 0 10 0 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 92 73 91 / 0 10 0 90
Oak Ridge, TN 70 91 71 90 / 0 10 10 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 90 69 90 / 20 20 20 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

797
FXUS64 KMRX 111054
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
654 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Showers and storms most likely remain confined to higher terrain
today. Hot and humid conditions can be expected.

- Potentially strong cold front arrives tomorrow during the
afternoon and evening hours. Damaging wind gusts and hail the main
concerns.

- Unsettled weather continues into next week, with multiple rounds
of rainfall possible. Cooler temperatures to start the new work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A hot and yucky summer day can be expected later today under sharp
ridging punching in overhead and W-SW flow continually bringing in
the increased water vapor. Heat indices in the valley could range
from the mid to upper 90s, with possible 100 degrees sneaking in
somewhere. It'll be a dry day for most, with the potential for any
shower and storm activity to be confined to the Southern
Appalachians, southwest NC, and into southwest VA. Your typical
summer time forcing near/in mountainous terrain.

Tomorrow will be another sticky and hot day, however, temperatures
may end up a degree or more "cooler" with cloud cover and
precipitation timing out around the time of peak heating. At the
time of this discussion, the Day 3 Convective Outlook from SPC
extends MRGL to SLGT into our area from the Virginias coinciding
with a cold front expected to arrive much earlier now than
previously mentioned. 24 hours ago and beyond, the front appeared to
arrive during the overnight hours into early Saturday, but it may
just cross the region during the "best" time for strongest
thunderstorm potential. One parameter for all of the ingredients
needed for severe weather is lacking though. Moisture is of course
there, the cold front is your forcing, and instability will be up
there with CAPE values in the 2000 to 3000+ J/Kg range. Shear,
however, is the factor that is very low. So, a high CAPE low shear
type set-up. The potential for strongest severe will be from about
the Mid-Atlantic up into the northeast US. Right now, damaging wind
gusts and hail are the main concerns. Mid-level lapse rates,
according to some 00z runs, will be in the neighborhood of 6.5 to
just under 7 C/Km.

Things clear the area late Friday into early Saturday. Highs will
fall below 90 degrees, but the nasty dew points will at least be at
bay for one day, with dew points in the 60s and even 50s for
northeastern parts of the CWA. On the temperature side of things,
highs will just continue to fall until the end of the forecast
period. Monday through Wednesday highs could only max out to the
upper 70s to low 80s! Unfortunately, following the cold front, we
will not dry out like you'd typically expect. Moisture sets back up
arcing along a boundary, potentially bringing heavy rains some place
early next week. The Day 5 ERO from WPC issued yesterday afternoon,
introduced a MRGL threat for flash flooding for parts of our area.
Details are uncertain to what may occur, but grand total forecast
QPF from Sunday until Wednesday, could bring multiple inches of rain
with highest possible amounts south of about I-40 and Knoxville.
.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Some lower clouds are in place over TRI, but VFR is expected to
continue at the site, as well as the other two. Cloud cover will
be more limited throughout the day. Winds will be generally from
the southwest to the west at 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 73 91 71 / 10 0 60 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 73 91 69 / 0 0 80 40
Oak Ridge, TN 91 71 90 66 / 0 0 80 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 70 90 65 / 20 10 80 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

493
FXUS64 KMRX 111740
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
140 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 137 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Pretty high risk of severe storms area wide tomorrow. Damaging
winds are the most likely hazard, and could be quite strong
(possibly as high as 80mph). Hail and flash flooding are also a
concern.

- Unsettled pattern continues through the middle of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The primary concern for the next few days is the chance of severe
storms tomorrow afternoon across our forecast area. As such, the
discussion will focus on that almost exclusively.

Shortwave energy will move from the central plains to the western
Great Lakes region today and tonight, driving a cold front
southeastward towards the southern Appalachian region tomorrow.
Ahead of the front, widespread convection expected across the
Midwest later on this afternoon. This activity will lay out an
outflow boundary that will be pushing into the Cumberland Plateau
tomorrow afternoon, sparking off widespread strong to severe storms
across East Tennessee. There are some timing uncertainties here, and
potential failure modes, but it appears likely that we see very
strong/severe storms tomorrow capable of damaging winds a bit higher
than what we'd normally expect in this area.

Hazards:

Tomorrow looks primarily like a damaging wind threat. However, there
is also a threat of severe sized hail as well as flash flooding.
They're less a threat than damaging winds but I can't ignore them.
The tornado risk looks negligible due to lack of shear. Going back
to the damaging wind threat, the model consensus seems to be that
surface based CAPE values will exceed 2,500 - 3,000 J/kg tomorrow
afternoon. This is backed by roughly a 70-80 percent chance in
probabilistic guidance of exceeding 2,000 J/kg sfc CAPE. Meanwhile,
downdraft CAPE looks to exceed 1,000 J/kg, with plenty of mid level
dry air intrusion and very strong lapse rates. Lack of shear
(effective bulk shear values of less than 15-20kt) means that the
initial convective mode will likely wind up being cellular or
multicell clusters, but this may transition into some quasi-linear
state later in the evening as convection becomes more widespread. As
such, the damaging wind risk will be sporadic initially. I'd expect
the potential for 70-80mph winds given the instability and resulting
storms heights we'll be dealing with. Speaking of instability and
storm heights, let's talk about hail. The lack of shear means less
organized convection which will work against severe sized hail, as
will the fairly high freezing levels. But the forecast instability
means there's at least a mentionable risk of some severe sized hail.
I would not be surprised to see some 1" hail reports of perhaps
slightly larger.

As for the heavy rain and flash flooding threat, this should be
isolated but it certainly exists. PWATs are high, and the strong to
severe nature of storms tomorrow means that heavy rainfall rates
will be possible. The limiting factor I think will be the lifespan
of any given storm and whether or not we have any training effects.
Mean winds aren't perfectly aligned with the incoming outflow
boundary and front, but they're close, which may support some
training effects. Lack of shear means that storm lifespans will be
shorter (more on the summertime cellular end of the spectrum versus supercells) so I think that we'll need some degree of training
effects to really get any significant flooding.

Timing and Uncertainties:

Current timing favors storm initiation over the northern Cumberland
Plateau around 2-3 PM EDT roughly. I lump timing and uncertainties
in together here because storm initiation is almost certainly going
to be along the incoming outflow boundary and there is some
disagreement on when that makes it in and exactly when/where storms
initiate. Most guidance favors it arriving in the plateau during
that 2-3 PM EDT window, with storm initiation occurring at that
time. But some guidance has initiation occurring squarely in the TN
valley and it doing so a couple of hours later. The plateau
oftentimes convects as early in the afternoon as the higher terrain
of the Smokies does, so I would expect that early afternoon time to
be the most likely. Most guidance moves storms off to our southeast
by 9-10 PM EDT as well, so it won't linger into the overnight hours.


As for the remainder of the forecast period, this front pushes south
of us on Saturday. We may get a reprieve from the humidity in the
northern areas, and also some dry conditions that day, but an
incoming shortwave in the zonal flow aloft may spark off some
additional storms at least near/south of the I-40 corridor. Better
chances exist on Sunday though as another, stronger impulse moves
through. Moving into early next week, upper flow becomes SELY over
the deep south and southern Appalachian region Monday through
Wednesday. We'll continue to monitor this as this pattern will
support widespread heavy rains and the potential for flooding. The
question is really, where will that set up. There remains quite a
bit of uncertainty there. Current trends show the heavy rains
staying mostly to our south, but we're close enough to keep an eye
on it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

We do have some ISOLD SHRA in the TN valley this afternoon, one of
which was near KTYS as of the writing of this. Threw in some VCSH
at TYS and CHA to account for current radar trends but those
should die off in the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR flight
categories should prevail through the 18z period. Widespread
SHRA/TSRA will be moving into the TN valley shortly after the end
of the period though.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 91 71 90 / 0 60 20 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 91 69 88 / 0 80 40 10
Oak Ridge, TN 71 90 66 87 / 0 80 20 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 90 65 87 / 10 80 50 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

671
FXUS64 KMRX 121055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Scattered strong to severe storms likely today. Damaging winds
are the most likely hazard, with potential for significant wind.
Hail and flash flooding are lower, secondary risks.

- Unsettled and uncertain weather pattern over the next week, but
likely a couple of dry days, too.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast through this
morning as a shortwave moves through the Great Lakes. A broad trough
will settle into the Midwest and Ohio Valley by this afternoon as
the ridge over the Southeast weakens. At the surface, a weak cold
front will move through the region this evening. CAMs are in good
agreement that storms will develop ahead of the cold front this
afternoon during max heating. Storms will develop around 2 PM EDT in
the Cumberland Plateau and extreme Southeast Kentucky or Southwest
Virginia. Storms will likely start as single cell or cluster but may
become more linear in the late afternoon or evening. Instability
will be high with dew points in the mid 70s and CAPE around 2000 to
3000 J/kg. HREF ensemble guidance keeps the highest CAPE along and
west of I-75. Mid level lapse rates will be around 7 C/kg and low
level lapse rates will be around 8 C/kg.

The main threat will be gusty straight-line winds with DCAPE values
in the 1000 to 1300 J/kg range. Tornado potential will be very low
with effective shear less than 20 knots and 0-1 km shear less than
10 knots. Some hail around one inch may be possible in the strongest
storms but with a freezing level around 15k feet, large hail is not
likely.

Some localized flooding will be possible in storms that are slow
moving or training. PWATs will be around 1.8 to 2 inches. Overall
the flooding threat seems low outside of the usual flood prone spots
like urban areas.

Rain chances are low for Saturday behind the cold front.
Temperatures and dew points will be slightly lower. The wet pattern
returns on Sunday and may continue into early next week as a broad
trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by Monday. The GFS
has higher rain chances than the ECMWF in the Monday, Tuesday,
Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A few gusts to near 20 knots at TRI under good mixing conditions
later today. Otherwise still expecting scattered showers and TS
late this afternoon through early evening. Adding prevailing VCSH
into the TYS and TRI TAFs in acknowledgement of forecast
persistence. Weather will turn quiet again by or shortly after 3z
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 92 72 90 72 / 50 20 20 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 70 89 70 / 70 40 0 40
Oak Ridge, TN 90 68 89 69 / 80 30 10 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 91 67 88 65 / 70 40 10 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

107
FXUS64 KMRX 121816
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
216 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and early evening.
A few may become strong to severe with damaging winds the
primary threat.

- Numerous showers and storms can be expected Sunday, and a few
of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds
the primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, but chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Convection has been developing along an outflow boundary that is
moving across our area, and a weak summertime frontal boundary is
still off to our north and west. Currently, MLCAPE values around
1500 to 2000+ J/kg over much of the area and DCAPE values near or
exceeding 1000 J/kg indicate an environment favorable for strong
storms with the potential for damaging winds this afternoon into
early evening hours. Shear is weak, so the primary threat will be
damaging winds with a much lower threat of large hail. PWAT values
in the 1.7 to 2 inch range will also allow for heavy downpours
and the possibility of localized flooding if any areas see
repeated or prolonged bouts of heavy rain. CAMS have been handling
the convection extremely poorly overall, which is not too
surprising given the lack of significant forcing. How much if any redevelopment later this afternoon will occur behind the initial
convection is still uncertain, although a few of the CAMS do show
convection developing and moving mainly across portions of SW VA
and NE TN later this afternoon/evening which is the area closer to
the better forcing. These northern areas currently look to be the
most under threat for stronger storms later today, although the
threat further south is non-zero.

Weak summertime fronts do not often lend themselves to high
confidence about how far they will progress before stalling and this
one is not an exception to the rule, but it currently looks like
the front will stall not far from our southern border by early
Saturday. Models differ on how much convection will be around during
the day Saturday, but southern areas closer to the front and the
higher mountain terrain would be the areas most likely to see a
shower or storm during the afternoon.

By Saturday night and Sunday, short wave energy will be moving
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, dragging a stronger cold
front through our area. Details such as timing of the front will
matter and are still unclear, but ensemble data suggests the
potential for significant CAPE and slightly more shear than today,
and a few storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds
likely to be the primary threat. Torrential downpours will also be
possible. Will mention this threat in the HWO.

A broad trough will be over the eastern CONUS during the coming work
week. Overall, we will see below normal temperatures early then
temperatures will trend back to around normal by later in the week.
Models are in poor agreement for how much precipitation will be
around early in the week, but overall the NBM ensemble approach
shows drier conditions for the Monday through Wednesday time frame
with just a few isolated to scattered showers and storms around at
times. Another cold front is forecast to be approaching late in the
period with an increase in rain chances again late week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Will be showers and thunderstorms around early in the period, with
highest confidence of occurrence at CHA. Will try to time periods
of highest probability with tempo and prob30 thunder groups.
Outside of any showers/storms, will go with a VFR forecast.
However, some lower clouds and/or fog development will be possible
late tonight although confidence of any impacts at the terminals
is too low to include for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 72 90 72 88 / 20 30 30 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 70 89 70 86 / 60 20 40 100
Oak Ridge, TN 69 88 70 85 / 50 20 50 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 88 66 85 / 50 10 40 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

412
FXUS64 KMRX 130547
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
147 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Today will be mostly dry with very low rain chances mainly in the
south and higher terrain of Tennessee and North Carolina.

- Numerous showers and storms can be expected Sunday, and a few of these
storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds the
primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, but chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern
U.S. At the surface, the cold front is weak and it is difficult to
place but it looks to be near Southwest Virginia and Northeast
Tennessee stretching back toward Crossville. This front is stalling
and hasn't moved much in the last few hours. By this
afternoon/evening the front will likely be stalled near the
Georgia/Tennessee border. Showers and thunderstorms will be very
isolated this afternoon and evening with the best chances in the
south and the higher terrain of Tennessee and North Carolina.

High rain chances return on Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold
front moves through the region. SPC does not have us outlooked in a
severe threat yet but with CAPE around 2k to 3k J/kg expected during
max heating it seems like there will be at least a marginal threat
for some severe storms. The primary threat will be damaging winds.
The freezing level will be high around 15k feet making large hail
difficult to achieve.

The broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by
Monday. The NBM has low rain chances Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
A stationary boundary will likely linger well to the south early
next week. With a deep trough in place, temperatures will be cooler
with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Rain chances increase on
Thursday as another system approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Patchy fog possible over the next 6 hours, but low confidence on
where, if any, significant restrictions occur. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected to remain predominant through the period.
A very low (10%) chance for a shower or thunderstorm exists to
day, but too low to include in TAFs. Diurnal winds to remain
generally less than 10 knots, from the W to WSW during the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 72 88 68 / 30 30 90 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 70 86 65 / 20 40 100 80
Oak Ridge, TN 88 70 85 64 / 20 50 100 60
Tri Cities Airport, TN 88 66 85 62 / 10 40 100 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

735
FXUS64 KMRX 131756
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Showers and storms expected tomorrow, and a few of these storms
may become strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary
threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Currently another warm day with temperatures back up in the 80s for
most of the region with an afternoon of small cumulus out there.
Expect mostly dry weather today along with temperatures and dew
points a couple of degrees lower than yesterday helping to take the
edge off the mugginess. We could see a few showers develop during
the peak heating of the day, with the best chances being across the
higher terrain of the Appalachians.

Tomorrow will see the return of rain chances as front moves in from
the northwest to help try and spark off thunderstorms during the day
ahead of it. Environment ahead of the front looks to destabilize a
decent amount with ample heating and dew points into the mid 70's
with southerly winds near the surface. Forecast soundings indicate
there should be 1000 J/kg of CAPE across much of the area, and
possibly over 2000 in southeast TN by the afternoon hours. There
will be some minor speed shear, but the biggest threat with the
strong to possibly severe storms tomorrow would be damaging winds
under collapsing storms. Some of the CAMs are trying to congeal the
mid afternoon convection across far east/southeast TN and NC into a
MCS... Which if that does happens means we still would have damaging
winds as the primary hazard, but we would expect to see more
widespread wind damage with an MCS. Biggest unknown right now is how
robust is the morning convection... If there's widespread morning
convection this could stabilize the atmosphere and throw out some
clouds to help cut down on the solar heating later in the day. So we
have moderate confidence on more widespread storms firing off at
some point tomorrow, but lower confidence on the severity of them
until we see what the atmosphere looks like in the late morning
hours.

Cooler and likely dry weather will be in store to start off the week
as the front sits across the southern Tennessee Valley. The overall troughiness over much of the eastern US will help to moderate
temperatures for much of the week with highs looking to be in the
mid to low 80's for most days next week. Towards the back half of
the work week a few systems will try and traverse across the Ohio
Valley which could phase with the southern stream systems bringing
more chances for widespread showers and storms.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Between 09z and 12z
the remnants of overnight convection to our west will push into East Tennessee. I threw in some VCSH at all sites to account for that as
I'm not confident enough in the coverage to go with anything higher.
After the period, additional SHRA/TSRA are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 89 68 82 / 20 80 40 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 88 65 81 / 10 100 70 0
Oak Ridge, TN 70 87 64 81 / 20 100 40 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 87 62 79 / 0 90 80 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...CD


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

618
FXUS64 KMRX 140556
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
156 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and storms expected today, and a few of these storms may become
strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern
U.S. At the surface, current analysis has a decaying stationary
front near the Georgia/Tennessee border. Some storms are currently
moving through southern Middle Tennessee. This activity will
continue to weaken as it moves into the Cumberland Plateau. The
chance for showers and thunderstorms will start to increase early
this morning with better confidence in development in the late
morning and early afternoon hours. A weak shortwave will move
through the pattern in the early afternoon hours. At the surface, a
low centered near OH/PA will bring a cold front to our doorstep in
the afternoon hours and it will move through in the evening hours.

Showers and storms possibly getting off to an early start today,
complicates the forecast and decreases confidence in intensity and
timing. CAMs have not been doing well with the messy pattern and the
way summertime activity kicks out outflows that can trigger more
storms. Surface based instability will likely still be high for most
of the region this afternoon. Dew points will be in the low 70s,
CAPE up to 2k J/kg likely and steep low level lapse rates. With a
high sun angle this time of year, instability may be able to rebound
after skies clear behind early daytime activity. Most of the region
is in a marginal risk for severe storms which seems appropriate. The
East Tennessee and North Carolina mountains are on the edge of the
slight risk. The primary threat will be damaging winds. The freezing
level will be high around 15k feet making large hail difficult to
achieve.

The broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. deepens by
Monday. Rain chances will be very low Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
A stationary boundary will likely linger well to the south early
this week. With a deep trough in place, temperatures will be cooler
with highs mainly in the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances
increase on Thursday and Friday as a shortwave moves through
Thursday and finally a cold front passage on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms around at times today,
guidance has several waves of activity through much of the TAF
period, primarily after 12z this morning. Hard to pick out any
narrow high confidence timeline due to the expected coverage
today. Any TS will have brief periods of MVFR restrictions.
Otherwise winds will be southwesterly during peak mixing hours in
the afternoon, with a few gusts to 20 knots possible, especially
at KTYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 68 82 64 / 80 40 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 65 81 61 / 100 70 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 87 64 81 59 / 100 40 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 62 79 57 / 90 80 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

961
FXUS64 KMRX 141827
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
227 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Showers and storms through this evening, and a few of these storms
may become strong to severe with damaging winds as the primary
threat.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Confidence is low regarding the severe potential for this afternoon. Complicating the matter is a mix of overcast to scattered cloud
cover over East and Middle TN and the morning/early afternoon
convection, which will likely have a suppressing effect on
instability this afternoon. The CAMS are coming into somewhat
better agreement that convection will blossom in Middle
TN/northern AL over the next few hours and reach our Plateau
counties around 21Z. Convection is starting to develop in eastern
West TN and northern MS, which the latest HRRR run is picking up
on. It shows most of this activity crossing northern AL/GA and our
southern counties. The NAM keeps these storms mainly south of the
TN/GA border. Model soundings this afternoon are not particularly
impressive for a severe threat, with deep moisutre, a high WBZ,
weak uni-directional shear, and MLCAPE generally under 1000 J/KG.
Bottom line - some strong wind gusts of 30-50 mph cannot be ruled
out from precip loading under heavier downpours, mainly south of
I-40. Training storms could pose a localized flooding threat.

The passage of a shortwave trough and surface cold front will bring
an en to rain chances in our area around midnight. Cooler temps and
a drier air mass will build into the area and provide nice weather
for mid-June on Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the 50s and 60s and
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The rest of the week will have
a warming trend, with temps close to or slightly above normal, along
with increasing rain chances as Gulf moisture returns. The models
are picking up on a tropical low that develops off the TX coast and
tracks into the Southeast, with a cold front approaching from the
NW. Details are highly uncertain, but late next week could be a wet
period if it pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Showers and storms are expected to traverse the area from west to
east through the evening ahead of a cold front. TEMPOs will
mention MVFR conditions with TS at all sites, and since confidence
of storms is higher at CHA, some gusty winds will be mentioned
there. Oernight, the front passes through and shifts winds to NW,
but remaining low level moisture may lead to MVFR cigs at TYS and
TRI until after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 82 63 83 / 40 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 81 60 82 / 80 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 64 81 58 82 / 60 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 79 55 80 / 80 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

957
FXUS64 KMRX 150544
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
144 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Lingering showers will dissipate by early morning.

- Turning cooler and drier early in the work week, chances for
showers and storms will increase again by Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Storms have moved out of the region but lingering showers mainly in
the northern half of the region will continue late tonight
dissipating by early morning. Currently the cold front appears to be
near the Virginia/Kentucky border stretching through the Cumberland
Plateau. This front will move through the region by morning and
stall well to the south today and tomorrow. In the upper levels, the
broad trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. will deepen today.
Today and Tuesday will be dry and much cooler with highs mainly in
the lower 80s.

By Wednesday, temperatures start to rebound with nearly zonal flow
aloft and southerly flow at the surface. Very low rain chances start
to creep back into the region on Wednesday but remain around 15% or
less.

Rain chances are high Thursday into Friday. A system will move
through the Great Lakes region on Thursday bringing a shortwave
through the Ohio Valley and a slow moving cold front into the Ohio
Valley. At the same time, a Gulf low near LA/TX will move through
the Southeast. There is some timing discrepancies in the models but
between the cold front and this Gulf Low rain chances are high from
Thursday through Friday afternoon. The Gulf system is expected to
move out and the cold front finally move through the region around
Friday evening. Saturday looks dry and slightly cooler with
troughing and high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Guidance and satellite disagree on extent of MVFR CIGs currently.
Went halfway between the two with TEMPOs at KTYS and KTRI for the
most likely timeframe. Otherwise, dry weather with light winds
expected through the TAF with primarily predominant VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 63 83 64 / 10 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 81 58 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 55 80 58 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

256
FXUS64 KMRX 151834
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
234 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Dry and seasonally mild conditions are expected to continue
today and tomorrow.

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region Thursday into
Thursday night. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging
winds as the main concern. Localized flooding is also possible due
to repeated rainfall.

- Drier and milder conditions return later on Friday into Saturday
with another return of rain chances by later on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Currently this afternoon, quasi-zonal flow is in place aloft with
surface high pressure in place across the region. The recent frontal
boundary is to our south with this pattern promoting northerly flow
and cooler and drier conditions. On Tuesday, troughing will deepen
from the northwest with the frontal boundary gradually moving back
northward through the day. High temperatures will remain seasonally
cooler today and tomorrow as the upper level trough will move
through the area providing zonal flow aloft. On Wednesday, this
trough will move off to our east, making way for our next chance of
rain on Thursday. A broad warm sector is expected across the eastern
U.S. by the evening hours with an unusually strong southwesterly
850mb jet of 40 to 50 kts. This will lead to significant WAA, but
overall moisture is still limited to support any rain chances except
possibly in southern parts of the area. The 850mb jet could also
produce near advisory-level winds over the higher terrain.

On Thursday, the surface low and broad jet will remain well to our
north, but there are varying indications of a shortwave and small
jet streak moving towards the area from the west. 500mb height falls
and continued WAA and moisture advection will support a much more
favorable thermodynamic environment for convection, in addition to
lift ahead of the approaching front. Many sources are suggesting mid-
level lapse rates to reach or exceed 6.5 C/km and MLCAPE reaching
1,500 to 2,000 J/kg or higher. Overall shear is certainly more
limited than places to our northeast closer to the upper jet and
surface low but still in the 20 to 30 kt range. While most high-res
sources have yet to see into the event, the RRFS model suggests
robust convection throughout the day. The environment certainly
suggests potential for at least an isolated damaging wind threat.
With activity likely continuing into the overnight period, repeated
rainfall will lead to focus shifting more towards a localized
flooding threat.

By Friday, the cold front associated with this system will move into
the region, gradually decreasing rain coverage north to south. High
pressure and sunshine will return over the weekend with
northwesterly flow aloft through late Sunday evening. Rain chances
will return to the forecast overnight on Sunday and remain
throughout the day on Monday to round out the forecast period as the
front is pulled back northward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Cloud cover will continue to linger at or above 4,000 feet AGL
through the evening, especially at TYS and TRI. Some ceilings are
possible, but VFR is expected to prevail. Winds will be generally
from the west to northwest at 10 kts or less. Overnight, fog is
possible at TRI but was left out of the TAF due to limited
confidence. Tomorrow, winds will be from more of a southerly
direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 81 65 87 / 0 10 20 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 81 64 87 / 0 0 10 0
Oak Ridge, TN 57 81 62 86 / 0 0 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 80 59 85 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

258
FXUS64 KMRX 160612
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
212 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Dry and seasonally mild conditions are expected to continue today.

- A system will bring showers and storms to the region Thursday
into Thursday night. Some storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds as the main concern. Localized flooding is also
possible due to repeated rainfall.

- Drier and milder conditions return later on Friday into Saturday
with another return of rain chances early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Another dry one can be anticipated today with similar temperatures
to yesterday, although humidity will be on the rise again. Perhaps a
stray shower in the Southern Appalachians. A further increase in
temperatures and dew points tomorrow with another possible dry day,
but with moisture on the rise, the southern tier of the CWA could
see isolated to scattered activity.

Attention turns to Thursday into Friday, when an approaching cold
front from the northwest potentially clashes with tropical moisture
coming up from the south. Day 4 SPC, which will become Day 3 after
this discussion's issuance, does place some of our southwest VA
counties in a slight risk of severe weather. Shear may be "better"
compared to recent events where deep layer shear was almost non-
existent. PWATs will also rise, which will increase the flooding
potential. This will certainly be something to watch with Day 4 and
5 ERO from WPC covering the area in a SLGT. Prior to, an increasing
LLJ Wednesday into Thursday may bring elevated winds to the Smokies.
Gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory may need
considered.

Precipitation chances decrease from northwest to southeast as the
day goes on Friday. Temperatures will trend cooler again Friday into
Saturday. Brief high pressure will dominate a part of the weekend
with chances for precipitation increasing later Sunday. Chances then
continue to persist through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions likely to continue for the bulk of the TAF period.
Low chance that MVFR CIGs creep into KCHA post 03z tonight. Dry
weather. Afternoon southwesterly winds may gust 15 to 20 knots
across the northern two-thirds of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 65 87 73 / 10 20 10 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 64 87 72 / 0 10 0 10
Oak Ridge, TN 81 62 86 72 / 0 10 0 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 59 85 66 / 0 10 10 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

490
FXUS64 KMRX 161850
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 249 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Dry and mild conditions will continue through Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

- A system will impact the region early Thursday morning through
Friday. Strong winds are possible in the mountains Thursday morning.
A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding are also
possible Thursday night.

- Drier weather returns later on Friday through Saturday before
more rain chances Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Currently this afternoon, broad troughing remains in place across
the eastern U.S. with high pressure receding to the east. A surface
low is moving up in Canada with the recent frontal boundary to our
south. Focus has also shifted towards the western Gulf where a brief
tropical cyclone is forecast to develop. Locally, dry air remains in
place as evidenced by below normal PWAT values near 1 to 1.25
inches. By tonight, troughing will have lifted off to the east with
another shortwave and developing surface low across the northern
Great Plains. This will lead to a strengthening low-level jet and
broad southerly flow pulling the frontal boundary back northward
into Wednesday morning. The tropical disturbance to the south is
forecast to reach tropical storm strength and move into the southern Mississippi Valley where it weakens overnight. Dry air still remains
in place on Wednesday before the front moves north of the region
overnight. During this time, an abnormally late-season wind event is increasingly likely for the mountains. This is due to 850mb flow
exceeding 40 kts, though from the WSW with limited mountain wave
enhancement. Some initial showers are possible, but moisture will be
slow to get into the area by the morning.

Throughout the day on Thursday, the remnant moisture from the
tropical system will move towards the region with increasing upper-
divergence ahead of a 50 to 70 kt jet streak. This will lead to
robust moisture advection with the initial frontal boundary
approaching from the north. Based on the latest data, indications of
overall instability have lessened from some previous model runs,
including during the day on Thursday. However, 850mb flow is
indicated to strengthen again back to 40 to 50 kts. The current CAMs
currently don't show much activity during the day on Thursday with
the focus shifting more towards the overnight period. The overall
environment per NAM indications seems more like something seen in
the spring with 0-1km shear exceeding 30 kts and deep-layer shear in
the 35 to 40 kt range. Also, strong 850mb moisture transport will
push PWAT values to 2 inches or greater from the remnant tropical
moisture. This presents increasing concern for flooding, in addition
to a damaging winds and potential for a brief, spin-up tornado. The
flooding threat will continue into Friday as rain continues ahead of
the front moving north to south. Some other sources, such as the
GFS, show less phasing of everything and more limited overall
impact.

As the front moves southward Friday into Friday night, a surface
high will build to our northwest, leading to milder and drier
conditions. By Saturday, troughing will be lifting to the northeast,
promoting height rises and another increase in temperatures. By
Sunday, high pressure will shift off to the east with increasing
southerly flow pulling the front back northward. This will cause
another return of rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Clouds will linger across the region today, generally at or above
5,000 feet AGL with winds from a westerly direction at 10 kts or
less. Overnight into early Wednesday morning, some lower clouds
are expected to move in from the south, especially at CHA and TYS
with reductions to MVFR most likely at CHA. Otherwise,
improvements back to VFR and more southerly winds are expected
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 88 73 86 / 0 0 30 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 88 73 87 / 10 0 20 80
Oak Ridge, TN 61 87 73 87 / 10 0 30 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 87 68 88 / 10 0 10 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

946
FXUS64 KMRX 170619
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
219 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Dry conditions extend through today with warming temperatures.
Breezy winds also to develop throughout the day. Highest gusts possible
over the higher terrain up to 40 mph overnight tonight.

- A system will impact the region early tomorrow morning through Friday.
A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding are also
possible.

- Drier weather returns later on Friday through Saturday before more
rain chances Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A dry day can be expected today as we become sandwiched between two
systems, a strong frontal system to the north and tropical moisture
across the south. Highs today will be markedly higher, with mid to
upper 80s forecast in the valley. Low level flow is expected to
increase, bringing increased dew points and gusty winds. A low
pressure center, the focus for the best chance of severe weather
across the country today, will develop west of the Great Lakes. As
it crosses Michigan and heads into Ontario, it deepens to a 985 mb
center or so. Increased southwesterly flow and a tightening pressure
gradient across the area will lead to gusty winds that will only
increase in magnitude as we go into the night and persist until
morning. Gusts may be strongest over the higher terrain of the
northern plateau, Smokies, and southwest VA. Gusts could range from
25 to 35 mph with isolated up to 40 mph values.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One (as of 11 pm EDT) will aid the first
push of moisture into the area early tomorrow. If it becomes a named
storm before landfall today, it's expected to weaken as soon as it
crosses LA into MS early tomorrow. Showers and storms will ride up
from the south and southwest. Although instability will be on the
rise coinciding with peak heating, overall shear will be decreasing
from the south to the north. With PWATs increasing to near 2 inches,
flash flooding potential will be present. The WPC ERO over much of
the forecast area is a SLGT or at least 15 percent chance of flash
flooding. The SPC Outlook at the time of this discussion paints SLGT
to the north or over southwest VA, with MRGL for the rest of the
forecast area. There's uncertainty with severe as the tropical
moisture lifting north clashes with the frontal system eventually
sinking south. The front itself appears will be an overnight event
into Friday.

Precipitation chances eventually decrease from northwest to
southeast as the day progresses on Friday. Temperatures will trend
cooler Friday with warming into the weekend. Brief high pressure
will dominate a part of the weekend with chances for precipitation
increasing Sunday. Chances then continue to persist through Monday,
possibly into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR Knoxville and north to continue. A low stratus deck around 1k
feet in northern GA/AL is slowly sliding to the northeast and
should arrive at KCHA around 9z and reduce CIGs to at least low
MVFR conditions. Stratus should scatter late morning. Winds will
pick up in the afternoon in response to a significant late season
storm in the Midwest. Low confidence in vertical profile post 03z
tonight, winds may continue to gust but if the inversion sets up
would have to introduce LLWS at TYS and TRI around the end of the
period as winds aloft are strengthening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 73 86 70 / 0 30 90 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 73 87 69 / 0 20 80 80
Oak Ridge, TN 87 73 87 68 / 0 30 80 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 68 88 66 / 0 10 80 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

701
FXUS64 KMRX 171801
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
201 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 159 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Dry conditions extend through today with warming temperatures.
Breezy winds also to develop throughout the day. Highest gusts
possible over the higher terrain up to 40 mph overnight tonight.

- A system will impact the region early tomorrow morning through
Friday. A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding are also
possible.

- Drier weather returns later on Friday through Saturday before
more rain chances Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Currently warmer than yesterday, but still a pleasant day out there
with dew points remaining mostly in the 60's across the region. Dew
point values will begin to surge overnight into the 70's as low
level winds turn southerly and start to draw up moire Gulf moisture
ahead of our next systems expected to impact the region
Thursday/Friday.

We're watching a couple of things for Thursday, a low across the
Great Lakes region that will bring a front towards the region, and
Tropical Storm Arthur. The primary system to be watching is the low
to our north and the front it's expected to bring into our region
late Thursday. Ahead of the incoming front the pressure gradient
will really tighten up and low level winds ramp up out of the
southwest across the region. Expect to see gusty winds picking up
across the valley once we get closer to sunset tonight, and
continuing through the overnight hours, and through the first half
of Thursday. As usual the strongest gusts will be in the higher
terrain of the Southern Appalachians and the ridges. We could see 20-
30 mph winds with gusts up to around 40 mph in these higher terrain
areas.

The (expected to be) short lived Tropical Storm Arther remnants will
move in from the southwest tomorrow across the southern Tennessee
Valley and storms will move up from the south and southwest along
with it. Instability will be on the rise during peak heating, but
overall shear will be decreasing from the south to the north.

So the atmosphere out there tomorrow could be supportive to see
strong to severe storms from either the remnants of Arthur or the
front moving in from the north. Better dynamics are likely to be
associated with storms to our north as the better forcing from the
TS remnants will likely remain further to our south. With PWATs
increasing to near 2 inches, flash flooding potential will be
present across the entire area.

Showers and storms chances will linger overnight into early Friday
morning. Temperatures will trend cooler Friday with warming into the
weekend. Brief high pressure will dominate a part of the weekend
with chances for precipitation increasing Sunday. Chances then
continue to persist through Monday, possibly into Tuesday driven by
another low pressure system swinging through the Great Lakes and
brining another frontal boundary to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours with increasing
winds being the primary aviation impacts. Winds will begin to ramp
up later this afternoon/evening as a strong low level jet moves
into the region. Expect the winds to remain stout overnight, and
once the sun rises tomorrow and the inversion mixes out the gusts
will then be on the rise as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 84 71 85 / 10 90 70 60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 86 70 84 / 10 80 80 60
Oak Ridge, TN 73 85 69 84 / 20 80 70 50
Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 87 66 82 / 0 80 80 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

873
FXUS64 KMRX 180614
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
214 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 155 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Breezy conditions today. Wind gusts over the higher terrain
could gust up to around 40 mph.

- Isolated strong to severe storms and isolated flooding possible
later today through early tonight.

- Drier weather returns later tomorrow through Saturday before more
rain chances Sunday into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Our area will become sandwiched between remnants from Tropical Storm
Arthur to the south and a trailing cold front from the north. A line
of showers and storms is about to enter Kentucky at this time of the
morning. Around sunrise or just after, the first sign of the line
will be knocking on our southwest VA counties' doors. Increasing
low level flow out of the southwest is creating gusty conditions
at times. Cove Mountain, so far, has gusted into the upper 40s
mph. So, I suspect other higher terrain in the Smokies and from
the northern plateau into southwest VA may gust up to around 40
mph early this morning. The LLJ is currently around 35 KT
according to SPC meso, will hold steady into the day today.

Like most recent events this past month, today will be impacted by
limited shear. The better forcing and dynamics are to the north,
extending into VA up into the northeast, with the low pressure
center scooting off from Ontario into Quebec. Moisture transport,
aided by tropical remnants, forcing along the front, and CAPE
exceeding 1000 J/Kg will support shower and storm development
today and into early tomorrow. A slight risk for severe weather
slices our southwest VA counties, while a marginal risk covers the
rest of the CWA. We are only expecting damaging wind gusts with
any storm that may become severe. With PWATs increasing to near 2
inches, flash flooding potential will be present. The WPC
excessive rainfall outlook over much of the forecast area depicts
a low risk of flash flooding.

The remnants of Arthur will skirt just south of us, exiting into the
Carolinas late tonight. What's left of the front somewhat being hung
up over our northern areas, will follow with precipitation ending
from northwest to southeast. Orographically induced showers may
persist over the Southern Appalachians into the early morning hours
tomorrow, while the rest of the area dries out. Lower humidity and
slightly lower high temperatures can be expected tomorrow
afternoon. High pressure building in from the Midwest will filter
in with northwesterly flow into Saturday. Even lower humidity
values Saturday even though temperatures rebound some.

High pressure will lose its influence over the area Sunday and into
next week as another frontal system develops under a shortwave
barreling in from the Midwest region. A second shortwave possibly
following it. A front forecast to arc along the Gulf coast towards
the middle of next week, will keep the unsettled weather around.
High temperatures could be impacted next week under troughiness and
daily chances of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Challenging and highly uncertain next 24 hours rain and storm
wise. Currently not gusty conditions at TYS and TRI mean carrying
LLWS until 11 or 12z when the inversion will mix out and strong
wind gusts up to 25 to 30 knots will begin mixing back down. Post
12z this morning, very low confidence in placement, coverage, and
intensity of showers and a thunderstorm or two. Most TS will be
over with before 01z tonight, with low chances for rain showers
afterwards. Conditions may vary at times between VFR and MVFR, IFR
if a heavy TS scores a hit on a terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 70 86 66 / 80 60 40 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 69 84 63 / 60 80 50 0
Oak Ridge, TN 86 69 85 61 / 70 70 40 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 87 66 82 58 / 70 70 40 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

440
FXUS64 KMRX 181844
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
244 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- A few strong to severe storms and isolated flooding possible
through this evening. Flood Watch in place across southwest VA
and portions of northeast TN through 2 AM Friday. A low-end
tornado risk in place north of I-40.

- Breezy conditions continue through this evening with valley gusts
up to 30 mph. Wind gusts over the higher terrain could gust up to
around 40 mph.

- Drier weather returns later tomorrow through Saturday before more
rain chances Sunday into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Main concern through this evening will be the potential for a few
strong to severe storms, along with isolated flooding. Showers and
storms are currently ongoing along and ahead of a cold front that is
drifting south out of KY. The showers and storms associated/close to
the cold front will pose an isolated flooding risk as storms train
west to east. Areas along the TN/KY state line, northeast TN, and
southwest VA have the highest chances to see isolated flooding
through this evening. Flood Watch has been issued for southwest VA
and portions of northeast TN through 2 AM Friday.

Additionally, the aforementioned areas also have a low-end tornado
risk due to the combination of shear and instability. We have
already noted some weak and broad rotation in a cluster of storms
that moved through northeast TN and southwest VA earlier this
afternoon. While instability and shear are supportive of a tornado environment, mid level lapse rates are quite poor. This will
hopefully help to deter any robust updrafts which will help to limit
our tornado threat. Weak and broad rotation will likely be seen in
additional storms through this evening. We will keep a close eye on
the radar through the remainder of the day.

Otherwise, a few strong to severe storms are possible across the
rest of the area through this evening. The main threats will be
heavy rain and isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

The remnants of Arthur will mostly skirt just south of us, exiting
into the Carolinas late tonight. Orographically induced showers may
persist over the Southern Appalachians into the early morning hours
tomorrow, while the rest of the area dries out. Lower humidity and
somewhat lower high temperatures can be expected tomorrow afternoon.
High pressure building in from the Midwest will filter in with
northwesterly flow into Saturday. Even lower humidity values
Saturday even though temperatures rebound some.

High pressure will lose its influence over the area Sunday and into
next week as another frontal system develops under a shortwave
barreling in from the Midwest region. A second shortwave possibly
following it. A front forecast to arc along the Gulf coast towards
the middle of next week, will keep the unsettled weather around.
High temperatures could be impacted next week under troughiness and
daily chances of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening with continued
breezy winds. Brief MVFR conditions if any showers and storms
pass over a terminal. Fog is likely tonight with MVFR ceilings
and visibilities. IFR isn't out of the question but not confident
enough to include in TAFS. Back to VFR late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 86 64 86 / 80 10 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 84 62 85 / 80 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 68 84 60 85 / 70 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 82 57 83 / 90 30 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for Hancock-Hawkins-Johnson-
Northwest Carter-Sullivan.

VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-
Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

449
FXUS64 KMRX 190643
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
243 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 234 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Showers exit north to south into the morning followed by drier
conditions continuing into Sunday.

- Showers and storms are likely Sunday night into Monday morning.
Organized storms are possible, and this will be a period worth
watching.

- Rain chances decrease but continue for the rest of the period
with temperatures near or below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Currently early this morning, a shortwave and upper jet are moving
off to the east of our region with a frontal boundary approaching
from Kentucky. Heavy rainfall has lead to some flooding in the north
with the main focus through early morning being additional showers
ahead of the front. With some instability lingering, isolated storms
are also possible. Throughout the day, the front will move south
of the region with high pressure building to the northwest,
leading to drier and milder conditions and northerly winds.
General troughing to the east and surface high pressure will
remain in place on Saturday with the front to the south, promoting
dry conditions.

By Sunday, a 500mb shortwave and surface low will eject into the
Great Plains and move towards Missouri and Illinois with recent
troughing lifting to the north. This will lead to increasing
southerly flow and northward progression of the recent front as a
warm front. Notably warmer conditions are expected with highs
reaching back into the 90s for many. Moisture will be slow to return
until Sunday night, which will bring chances for showers and storms.
Per the latest data, instability will be greater to our west but
extend into our region. A veering wind profile is expected with deep-
layer shear potentially exceeding 35 kts and a strengthening LLJ.
Instability will be better to our west but extend to at least 500
J/kg in the western half of the area. The CIPS Analogs have
highlighted potential severe chances in our area as well. This will
be worth watching in the coming days.

Beyond the Sunday night into Monday timeframe, there are variable
indications of embedded shortwaves with the jet stream remaining to
our north. After the warm front moves north, the trailing cold front
will drift south of the area by Tuesday. This will decrease moisture
for the remainder of the period but still sufficient for lingering
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A few scattered showers are expected across the region through
early morning, with TRI the most likely to experience a moderate
to heavy shower impacting the terminal over the next 2 or 3 hours.
Per latest HREF probabilities, brief periods of reduced cigs are
possible at TYS/TRI during the morning as well. Otherwise, clouds
will gradually improve mid to late morning. Winds will be from the
northwest tomorrow afternoon. Gusts between 15 to 20kts will be
possible at TRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 65 87 67 / 0 0 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 62 86 65 / 10 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 84 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 83 60 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

349
FXUS64 KMRX 191825
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
225 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- After some morning fog, dry and sunny weather continues Saturday,
with a chance of showers returning Sunday afternoon.

- Showers and storms are likely Monday in multiple rounds. Organized
severe storms are possible, mainly Monday evening.

- Rain chances decrease but continue for the rest of the period
with temperatures near or below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

High pressure will continue to build across the region from the NW
through the afternoon and evening hours. With the surface high
directly over the area tonight providing clear/calm conditions, some
patchy fog will be possible in some areas, mainly near lakes and
rivers.

A split flow pattern takes a shortwave trough across MS/AL/GA
tomorrow, with a broad trough passing across the Great Lakes and NE
states, leaving our area between systems. This should result in a
dry day with near to slightly below normal temperatures. On Sunday,
a lwo pressure system crossing the northern Plains will bring a
deeper southerly flow that will warm temperatures into the mid/upper
80s. With the southerly flow will come greater moisuture afvection
to southern portions of the area. The NBM is quite aggressive with
PoPs in the afternoon, which seems overdone given the presence of a
stable layer between 850-700 mb, with dry air aloft and little
synoptic forcing to provide lift. NBM PoPs on Sunday will be cut
back for this reason.

An upstream MCS in the Mid MS Valley region is expected to be
approaching our area Monday morning. The remnants of this system are
expected to be dissipating as they move east, but it may bring a
round of showers to the area in the morning. The greater potential
for showers/storms comes later in the day and in the evening as
better mid/upper level forcing arrives with the approaching
shortwave trough. The question is if the morning round of showers
will suppress instability and thus the severe storm potential. Given
the 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt, there appears to be adequate shear to
support organized convection, and there could be enough time for air
mass destabiliztion in the afternoon for MLCAPE to exceed 1500 J/kg.
NBM joint probabilities of SBCAPE > 1000 J/kg and bulk shear > 30 kt
is around 50% in the evening. So this will be a period to watch for
possible strong to severe storms. A mention of this will be added to
the HWO.

Next week will feature a broad trough across the eastern Conus,
which will result in low to slight chance PoPs for most days, with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Variable scattered to broken clouds at VFR levels can be expected
at all sites through the rest of the afternoon, with clear skies
by sunset. Winds near 10 kt at TRI will drop to light or near calm
with sunset as well. VFR conditions with light winds are expected
tonight and tomorrow, although some model guidance indicates fog
at TRI tonight. Will leave it out of the TAF until confidence is
higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 86 65 89 / 0 0 10 20
Oak Ridge, TN 60 86 64 88 / 0 0 10 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 83 60 88 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

534
FXUS64 KMRX 200639
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
239 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Dry and sunny weather continues today, with a chance of showers
returning tomorrow afternoon.

- Showers and storms are likely Monday in multiple rounds.
Organized severe storms are possible, mainly Monday evening.

- Rain chances decrease but continue for the rest of the period
with temperatures near or below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

High pressure expected to continue to dominate today and into early
tomorrow, as the area is sandwiched between a southern and northern
stream system. Temperatures a bit warmer today with somewhat lower
humidity compared to yesterday. Flow turning out of the southwest on
the other side of the high tomorrow, will send in warmer
temperatures, as well as increased atmospheric moisture.

An approaching shortwave trough from the central Rockies tomorrow,
will increase chances of showers and storms later in the day. The
strongest instability of a couple hundred J/Kg, will be over the
general area of the plateau and southern valley.

A second and potentially stronger wave within the flow, will impact
the region Monday. This system will eventually bring a cold front
across the area. Shear will be more supportive for storms, as well
as CAPE, with much of the region forecast to be above 1000 J/Kg. PW
values will be returning to near 2 inches, so flash flooding
possibility may be heightened. WPC highlights the region with either
a MRGL or SLGT chance of flash flooding. Factors possibly working
against the severity of Monday afternoon and evening will be, how
worked over we may become from late Sunday into early Monday
activity, and if any recovery can occur from that. A sliver of a
MRGL risk from SPC currently covers the very northern plateau for
Day 3 at the time of this discussion.

Following Monday, periods of isolated to scattered showers and
storms will persist until the end of the forecast period next week
under troughiness aloft. Temperatures, as a result, will hold steady
near or just below normal. Dew points could possibly remain sub 70s
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Light winds less than 10kts and VFR conditions will be predominant
through the period. Patchy fog/low stratus may develop around TRI
early this morning due to recent rains and proximity to Boone
Lake, however, HREF probabilities of MVFR or lower conditions is
less than 20%. Combined with high clouds streaming in aloft, not
confident enough to include a mention in TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 68 88 73 / 0 0 30 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 64 90 72 / 0 0 20 70
Oak Ridge, TN 86 63 89 72 / 0 0 30 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 83 59 89 68 / 0 0 0 30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

554
FXUS64 KMRX 201832
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
232 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Showers and storms are likely Monday, with the potential
for strong/severe storms Monday afternoon/evening.

- Rain chances continue daily through next week, with temperatures
near or slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Surface high pressure remains over the area today and tonight, while
a shortwave trough to our south is bringing some mid/high clouds to
our southern sections. On Sunday, with the high to our east, a
southerly flow develops that will increase low level moisture and
push temperatures a few degrees above normal. Chances of rain
continue to trend downward on Sunday, downto just slight chances for
our southern sections, which makes sense as convection across
MS/AL/GA is likely to limit deep moisture transport from the Gulf.
Forecast soundings continue to look fairly capped with dry air aloft
tomorrow.

A low pressure system will track W to E across the lower Great Lakes
area Sunday night through Monday. Synoptic forcing ahead of the
upper trough and jet streak will enhance lift and aid convection,
but the details of how this will evolve through the day remain
unclear. CAMS are not in good agreement on how remnant morning
convection across KY/West & Middle TN will play out, and how much
that MCS will weaken before it reaches our area. Can the afternoon
air mass destabilize for additional storms to develop and intensify?
Will morning activity leave a boundary in the area to focus
afternoon storm development? Shear appers to be supportive for
organized storms, with the low to midlevel winds in the 30-40 kt
range. MLCAPE for much of the area is forecast to be above 1000 J/Kg
by Monday afternoon. PW values will be returning to near 2 inches,
so a flash flooding threat may be heightened. WPC has placed the
entire area in a SLGT chance of flash flooding, while SPC has the
entire area in a marginal severe risk. So the general threat of
severe storms with damaging winds and flooding continues, but
additional details remain murky at this point.

For Tuesday onward, periods of isolated to scattered showers and
storms will persist through next week as the pattern will be a broad
trough across the eastern Conus with embedded disturbances at times. Temperatures, as a result, will hold steady near or just below
normal. Dew points could possibly remain sub 70s Wednesday through
Friday.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of this TAF period,
with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 89 72 87 / 0 20 50 90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 90 72 86 / 0 10 40 100
Oak Ridge, TN 63 89 71 85 / 0 10 60 100
Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 88 66 86 / 0 0 40 100

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

264
FXUS64 KMRX 210645
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
245 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- One last dry day today with warmer temperatures. Humidity will
be increasing as well.

- Showers and storms are likely late tonight, with the potential
for strong/severe storms tomorrow afternoon/evening.

- Daily rain chances continue through the coming week, with
temperatures near or slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The Summer Solstice occurs later this morning. Today is also
Father's Day and anyone with outdoor plans will be pleased to hear
the dry weather may continue to hold onto today as well. Rain
chances were previously thought to start creeping up from the south
later in the day. Expect upper 80s in the valley with stickier air
beginning to return with developing S/SW flow.

Later today, a system that will eventually cross into the Ohio
Valley, will approach and potentially impact our area during the
overnight hours tonight. This will begin the first of multiple
rounds of showers and storms through late tomorrow into early
Tuesday. However, some of 00z CAMs struggle to bring the decaying
system into the area late tonight. We could get overnight
showers/storms or we could not. Depending on what happens will most
likely impact what could happen later in the day with the actual
front entering the area. Day-time showers and storms may begin
around mid to late morning if the earlier precipitation does not pan
out. Consensus hones in on numerous to widespread showers and
storms, with the potential for strong to severe from early afternoon
into the evening. Support will be there for at least marginally
severe storms with forecast CAPE now nearing 2000 J/Kg and up and
deep shear in the neighborhood of 20-35 KT. Main threat will be
damaging winds, however, it will be gusty at times outside of any
storms during the day tomorrow for parts of the area. PWs
approaching, possibly exceeding 2 inches, will bring increased flash
flood potential as well.

Precipitation expected to wind down late tomorrow night into
Tuesday. Residual precip may hang around if the front does get hung
up a bit, like models are trying to show. As for the rest of the
week, periods of isolated to scattered showers and storms will
persist until the end of the forecast period next weekend under
broad troughing and NW/W flow. Temperatures, as a result, will hold
steady near or just below normal. Gradual warming into next weekend. Ensembles, as well as CPC, indicate above normal temperatures beyond
the forecast period. Potential high amplitude ridge being hinted at
by models. For humidity and dew points, a trend downward heading
into Wednesday, with a return to higher values towards the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions and light winds 10kts or less will prevail through
the period. Wind direction will be from the south-southwest this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 73 86 70 / 10 40 90 70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 72 84 68 / 0 20 90 100
Oak Ridge, TN 90 71 84 67 / 0 30 90 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 66 85 65 / 0 10 100 90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

571
FXUS64 KMRX 211826
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
226 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Showers and storms are likely on Monday, with the potential for strong/severe storms in the afternoon/evening. Multiple rounds are
possible and timing remains uncertain.

- Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then daily rain chances
return late in the week, with temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The remnants of the ongoing convection/MCS over MO/IL will reach our
area late tonight. Over the last several runs, models have been in
poor agreement and shown poor consistency with the timing and
intensity of the remnant convection as it nears our area. We can
generally expect that a 4-8 AM time frame is likely for showers in
our northern Plateau counties, and that a severe threat is unlikely
as the approaching cold pool outflow encounters an unfavorable
environment in East TN. Any showers/storms will be elevated with
weak lapse rates aloft, and likely won't last very far past I-75.

As we have discussed the last several days, the question remains how
this morning activity will affect a second round of showers/storms
ahead of the cold front in the afternoon/evening. Again, model agreement/consistency on the details has been poor, but the
depiction of another round of stronger showers/storms continues for
Monday afternoon, possibly two rounds according to the HRRR. During
this time, HREF probabilities of CAPE > 1000 j/kg and shear > 25 kt
are in the 25-50% range - not super impressive at all but adequate
for a few strong to severe storms. A 35-40 kt LLJ could mix down
with downbursts. 0-3 km shear is mostly uni-directional but any
boundaries that interact with storms could lead to a brief and
isolated tornado, mainly in southern sections. The flash flood
threat remains as training cells in the uni-directional flow could
cause problems, but the progressive movement of storms in the
westerly flow should keep the problems isolated, so no Flood Watch
appears necessary at this time. Timing appears to be 2-10 PM for
most of the storms along a pre-frontal trough and upper divergence
maximum, with a chance of showers persisting overnight until the
surface front pushes through Tuesday morning. NBM PoPs appear way
too high for the post-frontal and NW flow environment on Tuesday,
and will be cut back.

Wednesday will be dry with a large surface high covering the central
and southern Appalachians, and a building midlevel ridge from the
west. A low pressure system tracking across the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes brings rain chances back to the area on Thurday. A broad
trough over the eastern Conus through the weekend could bring a few disturbances to the area, so low chance PoPs will be in the forecast
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kt from the SW will continue
through the afternoon and evening. Clouds are expected to increase
late tonight, likely in the MVFR-VFR margins. CHA appears most
likely to have MVFR cigs, with lower chances at TYS and even lower
at TRI. Some gusty SW winds are expected to develop late this TAF
period at TYS and TRI, mainly 20-25 kt gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 87 70 85 / 30 80 70 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 86 68 82 / 30 90 80 10
Oak Ridge, TN 71 85 67 83 / 50 90 60 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 85 65 80 / 10 80 90 20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

025
FXUS64 KMRX 220704
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
304 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 257 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are likely on Monday, with the
potential for strong/severe storms in the afternoon/evening.

- Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then, daily rain chances
return late in the week, with temperatures near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

An area of strong storms may weaken but move into the Plateau and
southwest VA very early this morning before sunrise. Confidence
is low but possible.

For Monday, a series of abnormally strong jets for mid-June will
effect the area. The more northerly stream jet over the Ohio valley
will start to produce increasing upper divergence over Tennessee
valley in the afternoon with convection developing across the
Plateau counties. This feature combined with another short-wave and
jet over the mid and lower Mississippi River valley will combine
to produce large scale forcing over the region from mid-afternoon
into the evening hours.

The forcing combined with moderate instability with MLCAPES of 1500-
200 will produce at least scattered to broken areas of showers and thunderstorms. Due to DCAPES of 800-900 and PWs increasing to over 2
inches, strong downbursts winds are possible. Mid-level lapse rates
are quite limited and less than 6 degrees so hail is not expected.
Some of the CAMS suggest the potential of some backing of boundary
layer winds across southeast Tennessee. This backing would increase
the potential of brief spin-ups but this is a very low-end
threat.

Another concern for late Monday afternoon and evening is the
potential of flash flooding. Latest CAMS and deterministic models
show PWs increasing to well over 2 inches which will be near the
climo max for mid-June. Also, the increasing 850mb jet will produce
strong moisture transport into the region. Storm motion will be in
the 25+ knots but if an outflow boundary can line up along the
corfidi vector (250-270 degrees) then training of storms are
possible. Due to the very high PWs, rainfall rates will be quite
high tomorrow.

For potential QPF amounts, latest REFS shows amounts over 2.5+
possible.

The forcing will move east of the area by early morning
Tuesday ending the threat for showers and thunderstorms.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, besides some isolated storms across the
far east Tennessee Mountains and southwest North Carolina, surface
ridging and drier airmass will produce dry conditions.

For Thursday, increasing moisture and instability will produce an
chance of mainly terrain afternoon and evening storms. Most of the
valley will remain dry but isolated storm possible.

For Friday and Saturday, a northern stream short-wave will pull a
frontal boundary into the southern Appalachians increasing the
threat of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon
and evening hours.

For next Sunday, upper ridge will build back into the region with
the frontal boundary lifting north. Coverage of storms will decrease
but still scattered mainly afternoon and evening convection
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A brief period of low VFR to MVFR cigs are is expected mid to late
morning. Otherwise, the focus for the TAF cycle will be
increasing probability for scattered showers and thunderstorms
throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Reduced flight
categories and frequent lightning will be possible with the
strongest convection. Additionally, southwest winds will be in
the range of 10-15kts with gusts up to 20-25kts this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 69 84 65 / 80 80 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 67 82 62 / 90 90 20 0
Oak Ridge, TN 83 66 83 61 / 90 70 10 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 64 80 55 / 100 90 30 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

717
FXUS64 KMRX 221829
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
229 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 228 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Showers and storms with the potential for damaging winds and heavy
rainfall expected through this evening; isolated tornado threat
south of I-40.

- Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday, then, daily rain chances return
late in the week, with temperatures near normal.

- A hot and dry pattern develops next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A well-defined MCV is located over West TN, and will track east
through the evening. Storms are expected to develop and intensify
across northern MS/AL ahead of it, potentially reaching severe
levels in a very moist and unstable air mass. The MCV induces a low
pressure center to form along the cold front, and this low tracks
across TN as it strengthens. In response the LLJ increases to around
50 kt, giving adequate low level shear for a low-end tornado threat
in southern portions of our area. We are seeing clouds break up in
the southern Valley, allowing for surface heating and
destabilization over the next few hours. Mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
values reaching 1000-1500 J/kg south of I-40, with effective shear
in the 30-35 kt range, which will support a threat of severe storms.
CAMS differ on timing but what they do have in common is an
organized area of shower/storms, potentially in the form of a QLCS,
tracking across northern AL/GA and southern East TN this evening.
Damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out anywhere given the strong
winds aloft, but the southern Valley seems the most likely area for
severe storms with a potential for isolated tornadoes. The most
likely time frame for this threat appears to be between 6 pm and 10
pm.

Showers persist behind the departing low through most of the night
as a mid/upper trough will cross the area. Dry air aloft and a
stable layer at 850-700 mb build in around 12Z. A NW flow and a
little low level CAPE may keep a few showers going into the day
across eastern sections and mountains tomorrow, but most of the area
will be dry and cooler.

For the rest of the week, we will have a pattern that is nearly
zonal with a few weak disturbances moving through. Chance to slight
chance PoPs will be in the forecast each day until next week when a
large ridge is expected to build across the Southeast. This will
likely bring dry and hot weather for Sunday and Monday, and
potentially beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Gusty SW winds are observed at all sites this afternoon, and this
will continue through much of the evening. Showers/storms are
expected to increase through the afternoon over northern AL and
southern Middle TN, and track east. TS with MVFR vis/cigs are
likely at all sites between 22Z and 03Z. Showers with a few
isolated TS will persist after that time until a front crosses the
area around 06Z, when winds will shift to the west. Clouds will
remain MVFR through the night in the moist air mass, and TRI may
drop down to IFR (low confidence). We should see cigs rising late
in the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 84 64 86 / 90 10 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 68 82 61 85 / 90 20 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 67 83 61 86 / 90 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 79 55 84 / 90 30 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

992
FXUS64 KMRX 230656
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
256 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Lingering showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two will
exit early this morning.

- Dry weather can be expected for most through Thursday, then
chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast later
in the week.

- A hot and drier pattern looks likely as we head into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder will be diminishing by
late tonight. Localized minor flooding will be the main threat
over the next two or three hours, but overall the threat has
significantly dimished with rainrates trending down. A few
showers may linger into at least Tuesday morning especially north
and mountains, but drier and slightly cooler air will be moving in
during the day as surface high pressure builds in behind the
departing cold front. Wednesday should be dry and a bit warmer
than Tuesday, but still with temperatures a bit below seasonal
normals, and Thursday will be warmer but likely still dry.

For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft and
the potential for short wave energy to bring some showers and
storms, although timing of these short wave features is still
uncertain. Right now, the Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have
the highest chances for showers and storms. The details are still
too much in flux for any confidence in severe storm chances,
although ensemble data shows a relatively weak signal for
significant combined shear/CAPE. This will of course bear watching
as we get closer.

As we head into the beginning of next week we will see an upper
ridge building over the area, with hotter and drier conditions
developing over our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers will gradually taper off from west to east during the
overnight hours. The probability for thunder is very low from this
point onward, so mentions have been omitted. Low VFR to MVFR
conditions are expected to persist into the morning, gradually
improving late morning into the early afternoon. Winds will be
veering to the northwest this afternoon, with speeds between 8 to
13 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 79 59 83 62 / 30 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 79 58 83 62 / 10 0 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 54 81 58 / 40 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

133
FXUS64 KMRX 231835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Lingering showers and clouds will exit this evening, with fog
development likely late tonight.

- Dry weather can be expected Wednesday and Thursday, then chances
for showers and storms will return to the forecast later in the week.

- A hot and drier pattern looks likely as we head into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Scattered showers persist across NE TN this afternoon underneath
a mid level trough that is creating some weak, shallow
instability. Models have been too quick to erode the cloud cover,
which has remained broken to overcast. Once the trough clears our
area around sunset, the clouds should scatter/clear. With a
surface high building in overnight, winds will drop to calm in
most spots, allowing for fog development. Multiple models are
showing signals of fog, so it will be included in the weather
grids tonight. This is dependent on the afternoon clouds clearing
out this evening.

Dry weather with below normal temperatures can be expected
Wednesday, but with more sunshine than today. High clouds increase
late in the day as a shortwave trough approaches the area from the
west. The main vort max with this trough passes to our south, as
does much of the precip, but southern sections could see an isolated
shower during the day Thursday.

For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft and
the potential for short wave energy to bring some showers and
storms, although timing of these short wave features is still
uncertain. Right now, the Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have
the highest chances for showers and storms. The details are still
too much in flux for any confidence in severe storm chances,
although ensemble data shows a relatively weak signal for
significant combined shear/CAPE. This will of course bear watching
as we get closer.

As we head into the beginning of next week we will see an upper
ridge building over the area, with hotter and drier conditions
developing over our area. Highs will be well into the 90s for most
of the area by Monday, and mid/upper 90s for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Cloud cover this afternoon has lifted to VFR, but some scattered
clouds remain under 3 kft. Expect that VFR conditions will prevail
but the scattered cloud could briefly go broken in the next few
hours. Clouds are expected to clear around sunset, and the
clearing may lead to fog development. TRI is the most likely spot
to fog, so MVFR vis will be mentioned with an IFR TEMPO. Cannot
rule out fog at TYS and CHA, but chances are lower there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 84 66 88 / 0 0 0 20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 83 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 58 83 62 87 / 0 0 0 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 80 58 86 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

330
FXUS64 KMRX 240701
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 242 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Patchy fog development likely tonight.

- Mostly dry weather can be expected Wednesday and Thursday, then
chances for showers and storms will return to the forecast later
in the week.

- A hot and drier pattern looks likely as we head into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

With the moistly clear sky and light winds, patchy fog development
still looks likely later tonight.

Surface high pressure over the region will provide a rather pleasant
day with plenty of sunshine and below normal temperatures Wednesday.
Models are in very poor agreement and consistency in their handling
of it, but short wave energy moving across the region Thursday will
likely bring at least some high and/or mid clouds, and may brush
southern or western areas with an isolated shower although the NBM
keeps things dry. Temperatures Thursday will not be far from normal.


For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft and
the potential for short wave energy to bring showers and storms,
although the details and timing of these short wave features remains uncertain. Right now, the Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have
the highest chances for showers and storms. The details are still
too much in flux for any confidence in severe storm chances,
although ensemble data continues to show a relatively weak signal
overall for significant combined shear/CAPE although the stronger
shear will likely be across our northern sections. This will
continue to be monitored and more clarity on any severe threat
will come as we get closer.

Some models show one more short wave clipping at least northern
areas Sunday with additional showers and storms as the upper ridge
begins to build over the area. This upper ridge will then provide
drier and quite hot conditions for at least Monday and Tuesday, and
likely beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Potential for early morning fog will be the main concern for
TAFs. Greatest probability for MVFR or lower impacts will be at
TRI. Higher uncertainty exists at TYS and CHA due to light cirrus
streaming in aloft. Light winds less than 10kts for the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 66 89 70 / 0 0 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 63 88 69 / 0 0 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 83 62 88 68 / 0 0 10 10
Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 58 86 65 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

144
FXUS64 KMRX 241826
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
226 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Mostly dry weather continues on Thursday, then chances for showers
and storms will return to the forecast over the weekend.

- Hot temperatures are likely next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The formation of fog tonight will depend on whether high/mid level
clouds currently near the MS Valley will hold together enough to
reach our area. Models are hinting at river valley fog, but if the
clouds stay broken, the chance of fog will be low. Will have some
patchy fog in the Wx grids along the major rivers late tonight.
Thursday will be a partly to mostly sunny day under some high/mid
clouds associated with a shortwave trough that passes to our south.
The CAMS are showing a litte convection developing in the mountains
and SW NC, although the NBM remains dry. A slight chance of showers
will be added to the forecast.

For Friday into the weekend, we will see quasi-zonal flow aloft with
multiple shortwaves bringing chances of showers and storms, although
the details and timing of these short wave features remains
uncertain. The Friday/Saturday time frame looks to have the highest
chances for showers and storms. The severe storm chances appear low
at this time, as ensemble data shows low probabilities of combined
shear/CAPE. Friday appears to have better instability and synoptic
forcing with a passing trough, while Saturday appears to have better
shear but in a capped environment with weak forcing. It does seem
likely that northern sections will have higher rain chances and
better potential for strong/severe storms than southern sections
both days.

A ridge will begin to build over the MS Valley region on Sunday,
amplifying across the eastern Conus through Monday. This will be the
dominant weather feature through much of next week, and will bring temperatures well above normal to our area. Highs in the mid/upper
90s will be common next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

There is a chance of fog at TRI late tonight. Confidence in this
is low however, as mid/high clouds are expected to increase
overnight. Fog is possible if the mid/high level clouds from the
NW tonight dissipate instead. Otherwise, winds are expected to be
calm and visibility will be VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 89 70 90 / 0 10 10 40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 88 68 90 / 0 10 0 20
Oak Ridge, TN 61 88 67 90 / 0 10 0 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 86 64 90 / 0 10 0 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

523
FXUS64 KMRX 250654
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
254 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 252 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Mostly dry weather continues today, then chances for showers
and storms will return to the forecast for Friday into the
weekend.

- Hot temperatures are likely next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Patchy fog is likely mainly near major rivers and lakes late
tonight, although it looks like it will be a bit spottier than last
night.

We will see quasi-zonal flow aloft Thursday into the first part of
the weekend, and there will be multiple short waves moving through
the flow with the potential to bring some showers and storms at
times. There is general agreement in the models on this overall
pattern, but the details of these short waves is still very much in
flux.

Thursday will be mainly dry as some weak short wave energy moves
across but has little moisture to work with. Friday and Saturday
look to have higher chances for showers and storms although the
significant model disagreement and run to run inconsistencies lead to
low confidence for the timing and coverage of convection as well as
the potential for any strong to severe storms. Despite the big
swings and disagreements in the deterministic models, ensemble data
continues to be more consistent in showing a relatively weak signal
for significant combined shear/CAPE and severe storm potential that
looks fairly low overall. The shear and forcing do look a bit better
north than south, leading to the likelihood that northern sections
will have higher rain chances and more potential for a few
strong/severe storms than southern sections both days. Damaging
winds look to be the main threat for any stronger storms. This will
continue to bear watching as we get closer.

Models short wave energy clipping at least northern areas Sunday
with additional showers and storms as an upper ridge begins to build
over the area. This upper ridge will amplify over the region
bringing drier and very hot conditions for Monday through Wednesday,
and likely beyond. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday will
likely rise well into the 90s in most valley locations, with
afternoon heat index values climbing to near or above 100 at times.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Predominant VFR with light winds and SCT clouds at times for the
period. Brief fog may result in MVFR conditions at TRI early this
morning, however, high clouds streaming aloft and an afternoon of
drying out should prevent fog from being as intense or persistent
as the previous morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 70 90 73 / 10 10 40 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 88 68 90 72 / 10 0 30 30
Oak Ridge, TN 88 67 89 71 / 10 0 30 30
Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 64 90 68 / 10 0 30 50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KRS


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)