FOUS30 KWBC 290829
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri May 29 2026 - 12Z Sat May 30 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

Largely maintained the previous Slight Risk area that was introduced
in the Southeast US. A sheared 500mb vorticity maximum approaching
from the west will be encountering a moist airmass with increasing
amount of instability later during the day and evening. The latest
numerical guidance kept expected precipitable water values in the
2 to 2.25 inch range along and south of a quasi-stationary front
draped across the region from the TN Valley to the SC coast.
Instability will be highest over AL on east into central and
southern GA with MUCAPE between 1,000-2,000 J/kg most often. MUCAPE
up to 1,000 J/kg will be available later tonight from the Savannah
River to coastal SC. This combination should be enough to support
and sustain localized rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour
where warm rain processes predominate from eastern AL eastward to
the Savannah River this afternoon and tonight.

...Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southeast...

The western portion of the front affecting the Southeast US will
extend into portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and provide
the focus for showers and thunderstorms...some of which may produce
locally heavy rainfall from the Tennessee Valley into the Middle
Mississippi Valley into tonight.

...Eastern Washington to Northern Rockies...

A marginal risk remained in place across far northeast Washington
to northwest Montana due to an increase in the heavy rainfall
signal for this period as an upper low over the West on Day 1
places this region in an area with better upper forcing and
advection of moisture. The presence of anomalous moisture and some
instability may present a threat for localized heavy rainfall and
flash flooding, especially for burn scar locations within this region.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat May 30 2026 - 12Z Sun May 31 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...Southeast...

Latest numerical guidance has shifted a majority of the rainfall
eastward enough compared with previous runs to preclude an upgrade
to a Slight risk. In addition...the spread of model
guidance both in terms of placement and amounts precluded an
upgrade. As mentioned previously...some of the region, especially
western parts of South Carolina and into the Appalachians, has
been very wet as of late and is well primed, so may by more
vulnerable to flooding concerns.

...Northern Rockies to High Plains...

The upper level low over the West during the Day 1 period will
weaken and shift northeastward, moving over the Northern Rockies to
High Plains region on Saturday. Moisture anomalies will continue
to be in the 90-90th percentile, supporting moderate to heavy
rainfall, with widespread QPF greater than 0.5-1" likely across
western and central Montana. There may not be a lot of instability
to work with, so any flood or flash flood threats should be mainly
localized with particular attention to burn scar locations. A
fairly broad marginal risk remained in place across much of
western and central Montana, into parts of northern Wyoming as well.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun May 31 2026 - 12Z Mon Jun 01 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...

...Northern Rockies and Adjacent High Plains...
The upper level low which has been supporting the prolonged wet
period over the Northern Rockies will continue to move northward
across Montana slowly on Sunday. This results in surface low
pressure and associated surface front to makes its way out over the
Plains and gradually weaken while the mid and upper level
circulation keeps precipitation lingering over Montana and far
northern Wyoming. Moisture remains anomalously high but instability
still looks to be dependent upon cloud cover. As in the Day 2
period...any flood or flash flood threats should be mainly
localized with particular attention to burn scar locations.

...Southeast...

Until surface high pressure builds far enough southward into the
Southeast states to decrease coverage of lingering convection on
Sunday evening...the antecedent conditions keep a risk of flooding
concerns over the area.

Bann
$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

FOUS30 KWBC 300830
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat May 30 2026 - 12Z Sun May 31 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONTANA...

...Northern Rockies to the Plains...

Maintained the Slight risk across portions of Montana as a mid-
and upper-level system makes its way northward slowly today. The
system should foster locally intense rainfall rates...especially in
the eastern portion of the Slight Risk area...given moderately
steep lapse rates and some potential for enough breaks in cloud
cover. The HREF neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 1"/hr in
the 30-50% range, and 2"/hr around 10%. This results in HREF FFG
exceedance probabilities broadly over 25 percent. The RRFS shows a
similar evolution in roughly the same area but was not quite as
high with its probability of exceedance or with the probability of
1 inch per hour rainfall. Farther west;..the instability is
expected to be weaker but the greater coverage of rainfall looks
to offset the instability shortfall. As mentioned previously...the
flood risk should gradually transition from flash flood to areal
flood/river flood as you go west across the state.

A Marginal Risk area extending eastward from Montana and then
southward from the Northern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley was
largely left in place given the signal in the HREF for locally
heavy rainfall rates within an elongated moisture plume originating
from the Southeast US. It was done so despite convective details
remaining uncertain. The most organized convective threat may end
up over portions of NE and SD given a highly difluent flow aloft
and low level convergent flow. However, there are also signals of
organized convective clusters within the moisture axis anywhere
from Arkansas to Iowa, While convection is unlikely along this
entire axis...where it does develop rainfall rate potential will be
high enough for localized flash flooding.

...Southeast...

Latest numerical guidance continued to show locally heavy rainfall
today and tonight along and south of a boundary moving in from the
north. There was a bit of a westward expansion in the western
extent shown by the HREF and RRFS of the 1-inch per hour
probabilities and the probability of exceedance. As a result...the
Marginal Risk was expanded westward in parts of Georgia to Alabama.

Bann


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun May 31 2026 - 12Z Mon Jun 01 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM
MONTANA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...

Any heavy to excessive rainfall should be located in or near a
plume of anomalous moisture plume that will extend from Montana
into the Southeast United State. Large scale forcing is more
subtle outside of the Northern Plains/Rockies...but there should be
some weak shortwave energy embedded within the weak flow that will
make them difficult or impossible to time. As this shortwave energy
encounters a late day atmosphere with MUCAPE values in excess of
3000 J per kg from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley and parts
of the Southeast US...storms have the potential to produce very
intense rainfall rates that approach or exceed flash flood
guidance along this entire corridor. A large and generally
unfocused Marginal Risk area still seems to handle the localized
nature of flash flood risk that should exist.

The Montana portion of the Marginal Risk has the strongest synoptic
forcing as a mid- and upper-level system gradually moves north of
the border...keeping the western part of the state in lingering
wrap-around rainfall before gradually tapering off.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 01 2026 - 12Z Tue Jun 02 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

There are some hints in the guidance that the overall risk of
excessive rainfall is non-zero over the Plains from Kansas into
Colorado as models show a low level axis of moisture and
instability moving northward on Monday afternoon. The ensemble and deterministic QPF is fairly low...perhaps due to a component of low
level flow off the moisture. In addition...lingering deep moisture
may fuel some late day thunderstorms on Monday that are capable of
locally heavy rainfall but the model spread limits confidence.

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)