ACUS01 KWNS 071206
SWODY1
SPC AC 071204

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an
isolated tornado threat are expected this afternoon and evening
across parts of the northern Plains. An isolated threat for
tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible across the Ozarks
region. Strong wind gusts will also be possible in the mid
Mississippi Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic.

...MT/WY/Dakotas...

A strong upper trough currently over the northern Great Basin will
translate eastward today, with large scale forcing for ascent
overspreading much of the northern High Plains region. This will
aid cyclogenesis over eastern WY and focus a surface cold front from south-central WY into northwest ND. Thunderstorms are expected to
form by mid-afternoon off the BigHorn mountains and build eastward
across southeast MT. While this environment will be post-frontal,
Relatively steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will
support a risk of large hail and damaging winds.
Most CAM solutions suggest thunderstorms will become more numerous
and intense as they spread into western SD this evening, maintaining
support of the ENH risk area.

...Ozarks...

A weak cut-off low continues to drift northeastward across OK this
morning. An associated band of 30-40 knot southwesterly mid-level
winds and deep moisture will lie across the Ozark plateau today,
where scattered thunderstorms are expected through the period.
Parameters are rather weak across this region, but there will be
some risk of locally damaging wind gusts or a tornado this
afternoon/evening if pockets of daytime heating can occur.

...Eastern VA/NC...

A weak surface cold front is sagging southward across central VA
this morning. A combination of strong heating and frontal forcing
will lead to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast VA and northeast NC. The strongest of these cells could
produce gusty winds.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 091300
SWODY1
SPC AC 091259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms with a potential for 60-80 mph winds
with locally higher gusts, along with tornadoes (some potentially
strong), and large to very large hail are expected across the
northern and central Plains this afternoon and tonight. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will also be possible from north-central and
west-central Kansas southwestward into the Texas Panhandle.

...Central and Northern Plains...

A prominent upper trough will shift east-northeastward from the
northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains and Canadian
Prairies through tonight, with height falls overspreading much of
the northern/central Plains toward the Upper Midwest. This will be
atop a moist airmass near/east of a dryline/front located from far
western North Dakota southward into western Nebraska. Warm sector
surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F.

Thunderstorms are expected to form near the front/dryline by
mid/late afternoon, initially spanning the west-central Dakotas
southward into western Nebraska. Some semi-discrete storms including
supercells may also form farther east within the warm sector,
enhanced as the mid-level jet phases with a significantly
strengthening low-level jet primarily focused across eastern North Dakota/northeast South Dakota. Aside from large hail, a few
tornadoes are expected, some of which could be strong especially
during the early/mid-afternoon hours. Over time and farther west,
strong low-level convergence near the instability axis will result
in a relatively rapid transition to linear mode with multiple linear clusters/possible MCS expected to develop by evening. The severe MCS
will move eastward across the central and eastern Dakotas, with
damaging wind and some hail/tornado potential continuing eastward
tonight toward Minnesota/part of Iowa.

Aside from North Dakota/northern South Dakota and northwest
Minnesota, another supercell/tornado-favorable zone could
materialize by evening farther southeast from southeast South Dakota
into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa/southwest Minnesota.
Mid-level temperatures will be a bit warmer and storm
coverage/certainty will likely be lesser across this region.
However, a rather favorable and potentially volatile environment
will exist as a secondary low-level jet branch increases and
interfaces with an effective warm frontal zone this evening, with
initial intense supercells plausible if/where storms develop.

...Western and central Kansas and Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...

Higher-based storms are expected to develop regionally by late
afternoon/early evening with moderate buoyancy and very steep lapse
rates favorable for large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts, some
of which could be significant.

...Middle Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley...

As a byproduct of several decayed MCS, multiple MCVs will are
expected to drift east-southeastward across the region today and
interface with a moist/unstable environment influenced by outflow
and differential heating. A rejuvenated round of severe storms is
expected by mid/late afternoon, and some supercells are plausible if MCV-related mid-level flow diurnally persists. Multicells capable of
damaging winds are the most probable hazard, but some
supercell-related tornado potential may also exist.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 06/09/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 131255
SWODY1
SPC AC 131253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today and tonight across
parts of the central and southern Plains to Missouri Valley and
Middle Mississippi Valley. Swaths of damaging wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...Central/Southern Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...

An active severe-weather day is anticipated with multiple rounds of
severe storms expected regionally today into tonight. Near the nose
of a southwesterly low-level jet, an initial early day severe risk
will focus across southeast Nebraska, where elevated/increasingly
organized storms are ongoing just after dawn, into southern Iowa and
northern Missouri. Large hail will remain possible, but the
potential for damaging winds may increase relatively early today as
storms spread east-southeastward.

Meanwhile, a more complex scenario exists farther south,
attributable to persistent predawn storms across the Ozarks, as well
as a decayed convective cluster and one or more residual MCVs across
Oklahoma and far southeast Kansas. These MCVs, as they focus deeper
convection along modifying outflow/differential heating zones,
should inspire renewed deeper convective development this afternoon
across parts of the Ozarks toward the Mid-South/middle Mississippi
Valley. This includes the potential for some supercells and
organizing clusters, with damaging winds and some hail as the
primary hazards through evening.

Farther west and later in the day, strong diurnal heating/steepening
low-level lapse rates preceding the surface low will result in
scattered thunderstorm development near/ahead of the
southeast-moving cold front, with the most intense development
likely favoring where the front intercepts the west-southwest
periphery of early day storms and any residual cloud cover/modifying
outflow. This will likely include central/eastern Kansas and
possibly far southeast Nebraska into western/northern Missouri.

Steep mid-level lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture will
yield a strongly unstable air mass, which combined with around 40 kt
of effective shear, will support initial intense semi-discrete
supercells as then organizing clusters. All hazards seem likely
including large hail, with damaging winds potentially evolving as
the most prominent risk this evening, potentially including some
significant (75+ mph) wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes will
also exist, particularly late afternoon into evening as the
low-level jet increases, with modifying outflow potentially another
factor across west/southwest Missouri and possibly far eastern
Kansas and vicinity.

...Carolinas/Coastal Southeast...

Ample heating within a moist environment south of a front will lead
to moderately strong diurnal destabilization, with convective
development aided by the front and coastal sea breeze. Some
pulse-type locally severe storms capable of downbursts/wind damage
may occur this afternoon through around sunset.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 231252
SWODY1
SPC AC 231250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+
mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High
Plains into parts of the southern Plains today into tonight.
Scattered damaging winds should also occur with thunderstorms across
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

...Southern Plains...

Mainly elevated thunderstorms are occurring across western/southwest
KS into northwest OK this morning, aided by a 20-25 kt southerly
low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection. This convection
may tend to remain elevated for at least the next couple of hours,
as a surface front remains draped near the Red River vicinity.
However, there is substantial low-level moisture present across the
TX Panhandle into western OK along/south of the ongoing
thunderstorms (upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints). Steep
mid-level lapse rates atop this moist airmass is supporting MUCAPE
up to 3000-4000 J/kg. Strongly veering and modestly strengthening
winds with height through mid/upper levels is fostering upwards of
40-50 kt of effective bulk shear per recent RAP forecast soundings
and latest mesoanalysis estimates. This activity will likely
continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail this morning so long
as the mode remains supercellular.

With time, mergers/outflow interactions should foster some
clustering/upscale growth into the afternoon. There is some
potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe/damaging winds
to spread southward this afternoon and evening across parts of the
TX Panhandle into western/central OK with one or more intense
clusters that form. Isolated significant gusts to 75-85 mph gusts
appear possible given an already very moist/unstable airmass that
will undergo additional destabilization with daytime heating.
Strongly considered increasing wind probabilities and introducing an
Enhanced Risk for this area. But, ongoing morning convection casts a
little too much uncertainty to upgrade with this outlook update.

...Central High Plains...

Thunderstorms ongoing across western NE this morning on the northern
periphery of the low-level jet and related moisture plume have
recently weakened. Still, this convection may continue to pose an
isolated severe hail/wind risk for as long as it can persist. But,
additional weakening is expected later this morning as it encounters
a less unstable airmass. Otherwise, westerly mid-level flow and weak
forcing will persist over the central High Plains today. Weak
low-level upslope flow and a small-scale mid-level perturbation
embedded within the westerly flow aloft should encourage at least
isolated convective development across southeast WY into eastern CO
by early/mid evening.

Model trends suggest that robust convective initiation may be
delayed until 00Z or perhaps even later (04-06Z). Still, a
conditionally favorable environment for very large hail will exist
across the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight. Any
thunderstorms that can develop will likely become severe given
strong deep-layer shear, the presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates, and moderate to locally strong instability. Have maintained
the Enhanced Risk for large to very large hail, but lower confidence
exists for a swath of severe/damaging winds given the probable late
timing of convection and tendency for this activity to remain
discrete. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest
this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still
occur with any sustained supercell.

...Southeast Virginia/Eastern North Carolina...

Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern CONUS/Canada, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward today across
the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will also develop eastward across these areas through the
afternoon. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop by
late morning/early afternoon along and ahead of the front. While
lapse rates aloft will remain poor, sufficient instability will
exist with daytime heating to support surface-based convection. A
generally linear/cluster mode is anticipated given the frontal
forcing, with modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow and related shear
supporting thunderstorm organization. Scattered damaging winds
appear to be the main threat with this activity as it spreads
eastward through the afternoon, with the greatest concentration
forecast across parts of southeast VA and eastern NC. A brief
tornado or two may also occur with embedded mesocirculations in the line.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...

A closed mid-level low over south-central Canada this morning will
move slowly eastward today. A belt of enhanced (40-50 kt) westerly
mid-level winds will overspread parts of the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest to the south of this low. At the surface, a cold front
in the process of occluding is located over the Dakotas.
Thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/east of this
boundary across parts of the eastern Dakotas into western MN. Given
sufficient deep-layer shear and instability, some of this activity
may pose an isolated severe hail/wind risk, along with a tornado or
two. Modest instability should keep the overall severe risk fairly isolated/marginal.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/23/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 241257
SWODY1
SPC AC 241255

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms should occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with
a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes all possible.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
Plains today. As daytime heating occurs and low-level clouds present
this morning gradually erode, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should
develop by mid to late afternoon in a narrow corridor across
northeast CO into southeast WY. This instability will also be aided
by the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorms should
eventually develop this afternoon across much the region as strong
mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a shortwave trough
over the northern Plains overspreads the central Rockies/High
Plains. The highest convective coverage is anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where
buoyancy should be maximized. Deep-layer shear will be rather
strong, with values up to 50-60 kt. These conditions will support
the potential for intense supercells capable of large to very large
hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter possible). Notable low-level
curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this
region as well. Eventual upscale growth into a southeastward-moving
MCS capable of producing severe winds is probable into eastern
CO/western KS this evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.

Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
also occur.

...Upper Midwest...

A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread WI and
vicinity today as a weak shortwave trough moves across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Extensive cloudiness is
prevalent across WI this morning, which will delay daytime heating
to some extent. But, seasonably cool temperatures aloft will aid up
to around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating
along/ahead of a weak cold front. Current expectations are for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with
moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear providing support for
updraft organization. A mix of multicells and supercells should pose
a threat for severe hail and damaging winds as they spread
east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
eventually weakening. Enough confidence exists in this scenario
occurring to include greater severe hail probabilities and a
corresponding Slight Risk.

...Great Basin/Four Corners...

Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
east-northeastward from the lower CO River Valley across the Great
Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well mixed with
strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon, with weak
instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will aid in
northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists for
strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon and
early evening. Have maintained the Slight Risk for severe winds
across parts of UT with no changes, as this area still appears to
have the best overlap of low-level moisture/instability and
scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
northern OK/southern KS, likely aided by weak low-level warm
advection. Recent radar imagery suggests this activity may be
acquiring an MCV circulation. This feature should track
southeastward towards the ArkLaTex through the day, generally along
and north of a surface front stalled near the Red River. Eventual re-strengthening of convection may occur, even though deep-layer
flow and related shear should remain rather modest. Isolated hail
and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores that form, but
the potential for a more organized bowing complex is uncertain.
Farther south into the lower MS Valley, additional thunderstorms may
form this afternoon ahead of the ongoing convection in northern LA
in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. While flow through the troposphere is expected to remain fairly modest with southward
extent across this region, some loosely organized clusters could
pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they spread towards
the central Gulf Coast through the early evening.

...Florida...

Morning visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
the FL Peninsula. A moist low-level airmass with surface dewpoints
in the low to mid 70s is in place along/south of a front draped
across north FL. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the interior FL Peninsula and Atlantic
Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible given
steepened low-level lapse rates.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)