AWUS01 KWNH 231224
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-231822-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0505
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Areas affected...Western KS, NE and OK Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231222Z - 231822Z

Summary...Convection exhibiting backbuilding characteristics will
maintain an isolated flash flood threat across the High Plains
through the morning hours.

Discussion...Regional radar and IR imagery show an area of robust
convection persisting across portions of the High Plains. This
activity is being sustained by strong low-level moisture transport
and persistent low-level convergence situated to the east of a
surface low centered over northeast Colorado. This axis of
low-level ascent and moisture convergence is expected to persist
through the morning hours.

Recent mesoanalysis indicates moderate MUCAPE values currently
ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. A notable increase in low level
moisture and a destabilization trend early this morning, with
MUCAPE having increased by roughly 400 to 600 J/kg, likely
produced this convective uptick. Steep mid-level lapse rates
support some hail production, but hourly rainfall of 1-2" is still
probable in any storms that briefly train.

The setup is favorable for some training and backbuilding
convection. While the mean cloud-layer flow is westerly, Corfidi
vectors are oriented from the north-northwest. This is allowing
new convective cores to periodically backbuild westward into the
better instability pool. Recent IR satellite trends corroborate
this updraft maintenance, displaying steady to actively cooling
cloud tops over the region.

Given the persistent low-level convergence and backbuilding
potential, this convection is expected to maintain its intensity
and coverage over the next several hours. It does seem
increasingly likely that the convection over western NE will grow
upscale into a small MCS and drop southward across southwest NE
into western KS. While this activity should be primarily
forward-propagating, it may overrun downstream convection,
resulting in potential training and a locally increased flash flood risk.

Where repeated tracking of heavy convective cores over the same
areas occurs, at least an isolated flash flood risk will exist
through the morning. Hourly rainfall should generally stay in the
1?2" range, although it could locally exceed 2" where training is
maximized. Storm total rainfall through 18Z will likely exceed 3"
locally across the region.

Chenard

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41110029 39779993 36999941 35839938 36100036
36940112 38380136 40920155

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