AWUS01 KWNH 241312
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241753-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0515
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
910 AM EDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Areas affected...Southwest AR and Northwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241253Z - 241753Z

SUMMARY...A narrow, northwest to southeast training band of
convection will maintain a flash flood threat over the next
several hours. Localized rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr remain possible
within this axis before low-level forcing gradually weakens later
this morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a relatively narrow but
well defined northwest to southeast oriented training band of
convection stretching across southwest Arkansas and northwest
Louisiana. This activity is anchored on the trailing southwestern
flank of a MCV located over Mississippi, positioned within a
localized axis of low-level convergence.

The thermodynamic environment is favorable for heavy rainfall
rates. Mesoanalysis reveals an exceptionally moist airmass with
precipitable water values exceeding 2.0 inches, ensuring highly
efficient rainfall production. Instability is moderate, with
MUCAPE analyzed in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, which is sufficient
to sustain intense updrafts.

The mean cloud-layer flow is out of the northwest and is generally
aligned parallel to the orientation of the convective axis. This
steering flow profile is actively supporting the observed cell
training. However, the overall scale of the system remains small
at this time, with minimal upscale growth noted on radar and satellite.

There is some uncertainty regarding the convective evolution
through the remainder of the morning. High resolution guidance
indicates that the primary low-level convergence will gradually
weaken over the next few hours as the parent MCV and its stronger
large-scale forcing shift further east into Mississippi. Little
convective development is currently being observed in Mississippi,
leaving the trailing axis as the primary focus.

While a gradual downward trend in intensity and coverage is
anticipated later this morning, at least some persistence of the
ongoing training activity is likely over the next several hours.
While some minor westward propagation along the convective cold
pool remains possible, a significant westward expansion is not
expected. Therefore, the highest flash flood threat through
mid-morning should remain concentrated near and just south and
southwest of the current convective axis. Localized rainfall rates
of 2-3"/hr within the strongest segments of the line will be
capable of producing additional flash flood impacts.

Chenard

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34199413 34129346 33479299 32989263 32689238
32189203 31589232 31589293 32159354 32679394
33169420 34009450
$$
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