AWUS01 KWNH 251211
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-251800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0522
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
809 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Areas affected...Western and Southern Kansas into Northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251209Z - 251800Z

SUMMARY...Multiple areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
support intense rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour over
the next several hours. Localized totals of 3 to 4 inches will
likely result in flash flooding through early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends indicate an axis of
heavy showers and thunderstorms ejecting across western Kansas,
driven by a pronounced shortwave trough and associated surface low
pressure. Deep-layer ascent is being maximized by a combination of
DPVA and warm air advection with aid from a modest 20 to 30 kt
low-level jet. This is also yielding moisture and instability
transport up across the central Plains with MLCAPE values near
1500 J/kg and precipitable water values around 1.5 inches.
Continued cooling of convective cloud tops suggests vigorous,
sustained updrafts capable of highly efficient warm-rain
processes, and thus enhanced rainfall rates.

As the primary convective mass over western Kansas tracks
east-southeastward along the prevailing instability gradient, it
is expected to interact with a separate axis of backbuilding and
training convection already established over northern Oklahoma.
The intersection of these features, combined with persistent warm
air advection ahead of the shortwave, will support high rainfall
rates up to or locally exceeding 2 inches per hour.

Given the moist antecedent conditions across the region, these
intense rates are expected to overwhelm local infiltration
capacities. The latest HREF/REFS ensemble consensus supports
localized rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches, with locally higher
amounts possible where the most persistent cell-training occurs.
Consequently, areas of rapid runoff and flash flooding are
considered likely across the highlighted corridor through early
this afternoon, particularly where the Kansas and Oklahoma
convective axes consolidate.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...OUN...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39500115 39379959 39069827 38499676 37519543
36809531 36269582 36139692 36509840 36939948
37740087 38510156 39120164

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