ACUS03 KWNS 250835
SWODY3
SPC AC 250834

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated
wind damage, hail and possibly a few tornadoes, will be possible
from late Tuesday afternoon, into the evening and overnight from
parts of the Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley, and
southwestern Great Lakes.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the central Rockies
and northern Plains on Tuesday, as mid-level flow remains
west-southwesterly across much of the central and eastern U.S. Well
ahead of the system, moisture will return north-northeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, reaching as
far north as southern lower Michigan. A cold front is forecast to
move southeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley.
Destabilization ahead of the front, along with increasing low-level convergence, will likely result in thunderstorm development by early
evening. Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate in parts of
central Illinois and north-central Indiana. Convective coverage is
expected to increase through the evening, as storms develop ahead of
the front, southward into parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
northern Ozarks.

For this event, low-level moisture return is forecast to be weak,
with surface dewpoints only increasing into the upper 50s and lower
60s F across parts of the mid Mississippi. For this reason, MLCAPE
is forecast to peak only in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much
of the moist sector. Increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
approaching system is forecast to be sufficient for the development
of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in north-central
Illinois, along and near the moist axis, by 03Z/Wednesday have 0-6
km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7.5 to 8 C/km. This should be enough for strong to severe updrafts.
Isolated wind damage, hail and a possibly a few tornadoes are
expected to be the primary threats. Although a Slight Risk appears
warranted for this event, there is still uncertainty concerning the
magnitude of the severe threat. This uncertainty is mainly due to
the weak moisture return, and to the later timing of the convective
potential, which is forecast to be mostly in the evening and
overnight period.

..Broyles.. 02/25/2024

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ACUS03 KWNS 270730
SWODY3
SPC AC 270729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is
forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In
its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and
related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward
the northern Rockies by Monday evening.

...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley...
A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region
Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the
approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression
of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization
remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging
wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley
through the day.

...Parts of central/south TX...
An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early
Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east.
This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by
afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While
stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong
heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible.
Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization,
so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and
isolated severe gusts.

...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes
region...
A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH
Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach
parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate
deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front,
destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness
and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding
the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at
this time.

..Dean.. 04/27/2024

$$
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