ACUS48 KWNS 250950
SWOD48
SPC AC 250949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...

...Wednesday/Day 4...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Wednesday, as a cold front sweeps quickly
southeastward across the southern and central Appalachians.
Instability ahead of the front is forecast to be very weak at the
start of the period. Wednesday morning, scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to be ongoing across parts of the Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes, where a marginal severe threat is anticipated.
As the cold front progresses southeastward during the day,
additional storm development could take place near the front in
parts of the lower Great Lakes and central Appalachians. Although a
marginal wind-damage threat could occur along parts of the front,
abundant cloud cover and very weak instability will likely limit any
potential for severe storms Wednesday afternoon. Due to downward
trends in the model forecasts concerning severe potential, the 15
percent area has been removed.

...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8...
A large area of surface high pressure will likely move through the
eastern U.S. from Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast on Friday, on the
far northern edge of a moist airmass. As winds return to the south
across the southern Plains, moisture advection is expected from late
Friday into Saturday. An upper-level trough is forecast to develop
in the western U.S., with winds remaining southwesterly across the
central states over the weekend. The ECMWF is currently forecasting
a corridor of instability to develop across the southern and central
Plains on Sunday/Day 8, with an upper-level low moving into the
central High Plains. This solution would suggest a severe threat
across parts of the region Sunday afternoon and evening. However,
the GFS solution is not in agreement with weaker moisture return and
much less instability. At this point, a wide spread in model
solutions suggests too much uncertainty is present to consider
adding a severe threat area.

..Broyles.. 02/25/2024

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