ACUS02 KWNS 270626
SWODY2
SPC AC 270624

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging
gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio
and West Virginia.

...Central Appalachians...

A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing
Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast
OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt
southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main
upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel
lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints
generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger
surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is
forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly
forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be
strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced
damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More
focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and
instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection
develops eastward through the afternoon.

..Leitman.. 02/27/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 271731
SWODY2
SPC AC 271729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging
gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast
States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far
northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then
more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level
flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet
streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing
is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS,
becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the
jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and
TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early
Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from
the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast.

Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over
Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through
western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms
will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the
period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are
expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day,
although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time.

...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN...
Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the
cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early
Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak
intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1
Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in
overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced
character of this line could still result in convection deep enough
to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow
will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the
potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface.
Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack
of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be
quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during
the morning and afternoon.

...Upper OH Valley into Northeast...
A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears
probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday
afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday
night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from
abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible.
Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any
convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a
damaging/severe gust.

..Mosier.. 02/27/2024

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