ACUS01 KWNS 031301
SWODY1
SPC AC 031259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to
be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to envelop much of
the western 2/3 of the country today, while ridging prevails over
the East. The exception will be a weak southern-stream short-wave
trough, that will shift across Florida today.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying from the upper Mississippi
Valley area southwestward across the central Plains, and then
westward across the Intermountain West will make little progress
today, while high pressure prevails in the East.

...Florida Peninsula...
Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the
northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with additional/more
widespread convection offshore. The convection is occurring near
and south of a weak surface boundary, in tandem with the
southern-stream short-wave trough that will continue to move slowly
eastward across the Peninsula today.

A moist airmass remains in place south of the northern Florida
surface boundary. This, combined with relatively cool mid-levels
associated with the short-wave trough, will allow 1000 to 1500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through this afternoon. Weak surface
winds in the warm sector suggest inland penetration of both
sea-breeze boundaries, which will support scattered thunderstorm
development inland later today. While deep-layer shear will remain
marginal for well-organized storms, hail will be possible with a
stronger storm or two, aided by the cool air aloft. Storms should
gradually diminish inland, this evening.

..Goss/Broyles.. 03/03/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 181242
SWODY1
SPC AC 181240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND MUCH OF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and wind damage is possible this afternoon
across central Florida and along much of the Florida Atlantic coast.

...FL this afternoon...
A northern stream shortwave trough will dig from the mid MS Valley
this morning to the southern Appalachians this evening and off the
Atlantic coast by early Tuesday. An associated stalled surface
front across north FL this morning will begin to accelerate
southeastward across the peninsula this evening through early
Tuesday. The more pronounced midlevel height falls and forcing for
ascent will pass north of FL, leaving shallow ascent along the front
and/or differential heating boundaries (from convection moving
inland from the northeast Gulf of Mexico this morning) to focus
thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings suggest that moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg), steep low-level lapse rates and 50
kt midlevel flow with relatively straight hodographs could support a
supercell capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in
diameter) and damaging gusts near 60 mph. The severe threat will
peak by early-mid afternoon and then diminish into this evening.

...AZ/southern CA through this evening...
As part of a Rex block, a closed low over AZ will drift westward
today as an embedded speed max pivots from northern AZ toward
southern CA. Low-level moisture will remain modest, but cool
midlevel temperatures and daytime heating will contribute to at
least weak buoyancy (SBCAPE of 250-750 J/kg). A few clusters of
storms will form in the main band of ascent over the rim this
afternoon, while other storms are expected to spread southwestward
off the higher terrain toward the southern CA coast. The threat for
severe storms will remain quite low, but the strongest storms could
produce gusty outflow winds and small hail.

..Thompson/Dean.. 03/18/2024

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231250
SWODY1
SPC AC 231249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of south Florida and the Keys.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves -- including the open-
wave remnants of a cyclone now moving toward the Pacific Northwest
Coast -- will contribute to development of a large synoptic trough
over the West by 12Z tomorrow. Meanwhile, a downstream/southern-
stream perturbation -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over the
southern Appalachians to the FL Panhandle and central Gulf -- will
shift eastward. By 00Z, the trough should extend from the Carolinas
and coastal GA south-southwestward across northern FL and the
extreme eastern Gulf. By 12Z, the trough should be offshore from
the southern Atlantic Coast, including FL.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low over
northeastern NC in the RDU/RWI area, with cold front across central
portions of SC/GA to the west-central FL Panhandle and central Gulf.
A prefrontal trough with northwesterly wind shift was drawn across
southern GA, the FL coastal bend, and the east-central Gulf. A warm
front -- poorly defined due to the presence of convection and dense
precip on both sides -- was apparent from the low southeastward over
parts of the Outer Banks. The low should move swiftly northeastward
today, reaching near Montauk Point around 00Z, with the trailing
cold front effectively catching the trough and moving offshore from
the remainder of the Atlantic Coast (including FL).

...South FL/Keys...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible through
midafternoon in the destabilizing, prefrontal warm sector over south
FL. The most vigorous cells may produce marginally severe gusts.

The prefrontal air mass over the region will remain characterized by
surface dewpoints around 68-72 F over most of south FL. Modified
RAOBs and forecast soundings suggest this will support around 1000-
1500 J/kg MLCAPE with minimal CINH, and that convection now over
parts of south FL already may be surface-based in the recovery zone
of warm advection behind the prior night's activity. However, light
and variable winds near the surface will become southwesterly to
westerly through midday, while flow from just above the surface
through 850 mb veers more. Though this will reduce hodograph size
markedly, sufficient speed shear will remain to yield effective-
shear magnitudes around 45-60 kt. Weak/intermittent supercell
characteristics may be noted, while fast cell motions contribute to
locally damaging downdrafts.

...Eastern NC...
Somewhat organized thunderstorms extend from near HSE south-
southwestward over Atlantic waters, moving northeastward. The most-
intense activity should remain offshore where low-level instability
and deep bulk shear each should be most favorable. Persistent
overland precip has minimized buoyancy, and deep shear should
continue to diminish as flow aloft weakens with time nearest the
trough aloft. Behind the early precip area, some destabilization,
related to both warm advection and patchy insolation, is expected
diurnally. This may support isolated to widely scattered convection along/ahead of the cold front. However, with the low and associated isallobaric forcing moving quickly away from the region and up the
Mid-Atlantic Coast through 18Z, warm-sector flow will veer, further
reducing both vertical shear and low-level convergence. As such,
unconditional potential appears too low to maintain a severe
outlook.

..Edwards/Grams.. 03/23/2024

$$
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