ACUS02 KWNS 030702
SWODY2
SPC AC 030700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large
hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds
may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A split flow upper pattern will persist on Monday across the CONUS,
with a southern-stream upper jet extending across northern Mexico
and parts of the southern Plains through the day. Farther north,
broad upper troughing will remain over much of the northwestern
states into the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. A subtle
mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across TX and the lower
MS Valley may encourage convective development through the period,
while thunderstorm initiation from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest may be tied more to a southeastward-moving cold front
Monday evening through early Tuesday morning.

...Central Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A moist low-level airmass will be present along/east of a surface
dryline across central TX Monday afternoon. The presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of the moist airmass will
support the development of weak to moderate instability from parts
of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. While
mid-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong, it should still
be enough to foster some updraft organization with around 25-35 kt
of deep-layer shear. The main uncertainty is convective initiation
through the day, as a lingering cap and generally weak forcing
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough may keep
overall thunderstorm coverage fairly isolated.

Still, some guidance suggests that convection will gradually
increase in intensity and coverage through Monday evening in a
modest low-level warm advection regime. Additional thunderstorms may
develop along/east of the dryline extending southward into central
TX. Any convection that can initiate may pose an isolated threat for
large hail and strong to locally damaging winds as it continues
eastward through Monday night. The Marginal Risk has been expanded
westward into parts of central TX to account for the possibility of
isolated initiation along the dryline. But, confidence in a corridor
of greater severe potential remains too low to include higher severe
hail probabilities across this region.

...Ozarks into the mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest...
Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
IA and vicinity, associated with a northeastward-ejecting shortwave
trough embedded within the larger upper troughing present over the northern/central Plains. This activity is expected to remain
elevated as it continues northeastward across the Upper Midwest
through the day. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the central Plains to the Midwest along a southeastward-advancing cold front. Modest low-level moisture, with
surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should advance northeastward through the period ahead of the front. Even with the
quality of the low-level moisture remaining limited, somewhat
steepened mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least weak MUCAPE
developing by Monday evening.

While the stronger mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will likely
remain displaced to the cool side of the front, sufficient
deep-layer shear to support updraft organization should be present
over the warm sector extending from the Ozarks into the mid MS
Valley/Midwest. Most guidance shows a convective precipitation
signal along the front beginning Monday evening and continuing
through early Tuesday morning. Isolated severe hail may occur with
any of the stronger cells that can develop and remain at least
semi-discrete. Occasional strong/gusty winds may also occur, even
though low-level stability from nocturnal cooling of the boundary
layer may mostly hinder convective downdrafts from reaching the
surface.

..Gleason.. 03/03/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 040652
SWODY2
SPC AC 040650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday
across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main
threats.

...East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level, southern-stream shortwave trough will be located over
the lower MS Valley at the start of the period Tuesday morning. This
feature should continue moving east-northeastward across the central
Gulf Coast states and Southeast through early Wednesday morning.
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Tuesday
morning across parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley in
association with modest lift attendant to the shortwave trough.
Although boundary-layer instability may be somewhat muted Tuesday
morning with lingering MLCIN, the presence of modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating of a moist low-level
airmass should contribute to weak to moderate instability developing
by Tuesday afternoon east of a surface dryline across east TX, and
south of a cold front extending from central/eastern OK into the
Ozarks and mid MS Valley.

Isolated hail and damaging winds may occur with the ongoing activity
Tuesday morning, as enhanced mid-level winds with the shortwave
trough contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear to support some
updraft organization. Various high-resolution model guidance
suggests potential for this morning activity to consolidate into one
or more clusters as it spreads east-southeastward over the lower MS
Valley. If this occurs, then perhaps a greater damaging wind threat
may exist assuming sufficient destabilization is realized. Once
these thunderstorms move offshore, the isolated severe threat should
generally lessen across the lower MS Valley, except for in the
vicinity of the cold front and dryline.

Additional convective development along both of these boundaries
Tuesday afternoon appears possible, even though large-scale ascent
will be nebulous at best behind the departing shortwave trough.
Still, with moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop by both the NAM and
RAP, any robust convection that can develop could produce isolated
large hail and damaging winds, even as deep-layer shear remains
modest. The Marginal Risk for hail/wind has been expanded northward
a bit into eastern OK, AR, and towards the Mid-South vicinity to
account for this possible afternoon/early evening development.

..Gleason.. 03/04/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110535
SWODY2
SPC AC 110533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the
south-central Plains and Ozarks on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress across the
central Plains on Tuesday, reaching the Mid MS Valley by late
Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Surface low attendant to this
shortwave is expected to track across KS throughout much of the day
while gradually weakening. This low will likely be centered in the
vicinity of the KS/NE/MO border intersection by 00Z Wednesday.

Westerly flow aloft will be maintained across the Rockies and Plains
in the wake of this lead shortwave as upper troughing deepens across
the western CONUS. As a result, lee troughing will be maintained
across the High Plains in the wake of the lead shortwave, with
additional surface cyclogenesis possible Tuesday evening. Resulting
surface low is then forecast to move across southwest KS/OK
Panhandle into northwest OK/central KS by early Wednesday morning.

...Northeast OK/Southeast KS into Ozarks/Lower MO Valley...
Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated throughout the
period from the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. By 00Z, mid
50s dewpoints will likely reach into central OK, with low 50s
dewpoints stretching across southeast KS into west-central MO. Mid
70s temperatures are expected within the warm sector from central OK
int southeast KS during the late afternoon, with slightly lower
temperatures (i.e. highs in the low 70s) likely farther north across west-central MO. Most of the guidance suggests modest capping will
remain in place amid these thermodynamic conditions, although an
increase of a degree or two in either the temperature or dewpoints
may be enough to eliminate the convective inhibition. Low-level
confluence is anticipated within the warm sector, with some
convergence on the dryline as well. These conditions could result in
sufficient ascent for convective initiation, contingent on little to
no convective inhibition. If initiation is realized, steep mid-level
lapse rates and moderate deep-layer vertical shear could support a
few strong to severe storms.

...Mid MS Valley...
Thunderstorms are possible overnight and into early Wednesday
morning across portions of the Mid MS Valley, supported by
large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture attendant to
the shortwave moving through the region. These storms will displaced
north of the better mid-level flow, with a non-severe, multicellular
mode anticipated.

..Mosier.. 03/11/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 250552
SWODY2
SPC AC 250550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two may
persist Tuesday along/near the central Gulf Coast, with a separate
area of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms potentially
developing by Tuesday afternoon across parts of the Midwest and
southern Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will continue to dominate much of the
CONUS on Tuesday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast
to advance quickly northeastward across the OH Valley and Great
Lakes regions through the day. The primary surface low should be
located over the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, and it should
develop northeastward into Ontario in tandem with the shortwave
trough. A trailing cold front will sweep east-southeastward through
the period across the OH/TN Valleys and parts of the Southeast.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period Tuesday morning across parts of central/southern AL and the
western FL Panhandle. This activity is expected to continue moving
eastward while gradually weakening through the morning, as it
generally outpaces rich low-level moisture return and appreciable
instability. Still, a narrow spatial/temporal window will probably
exist for strong to locally damaging winds with the line, so long as
it can remain near-surface-based. A brief tornado or two also
appears possible focused along/near the coast, as 0-1-km SRH
associated with the southern extent of a 40-60 kt low-level jet
should be sufficient for updraft rotation. An isolated severe threat
may persist into Tuesday afternoon and continue through Tuesday
night across southeastern AL, southwestern GA, and the FL Panhandle
vicinity as mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints attempt to advance
inland across these areas. But, poor lapse rates aloft and limited
daytime heating from cloud cover should temper the development of
any more than weak instability.

...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes...
Beneath a very strong (90-110 kt) mid-level jet and ahead of a
surface cold front, low-topped convection may form relatively early
in the day across eastern IL and western IN. Although low-level
moisture is expected to remain rather limited with surface dewpoints
generally in the low 50s, cold mid-level temperatures coupled with
daytime heating should aid in the development of weak instability
through Tuesday afternoon. Impressive low/mid-level winds veering
with height will support strong deep-layer shear and updraft
organization. Given the forecast strength of the low-level flow,
isolated strong to severe winds appear to be the main threat.
However, sufficient low-level shear to support some risk for a
tornado or two should also be present. Given latest model trends
regarding areas where weak destabilization seems probable, the
Marginal Risk has been expanded westward to include parts of eastern
IL, and northward to encompass much of southern Lower MI. With the
loss of daytime heating, convection should quickly weaken by Tuesday
evening as it continues eastward into western OH.

..Gleason.. 03/25/2024

$$
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