ACUS02 KWNS 050602
SWODY2
SPC AC 050600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula and the southern Plains. Occasional
large hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this
activity.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move northeastward across the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low is likewise
forecast to develop northeastward from GA/SC into NC and southern VA
through Wednesday evening. A moist low-level airmass will be in
place across these areas ahead of a cold front. Still, greater
instability (and isolated severe potential) is generally expected to
remain over parts of FL, and offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream
waters.

Separate areas of thunderstorms may occur through the period across
parts of coastal southern CA as an upper trough/low with associated
cold mid-level temperatures moves eastward, and across parts of the
Great Basin. Weak forecast instability over these regions should
limit any appreciable severe threat.

...Central/South Florida...
Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb temperatures around -10 to
-12C) should aid in weak to moderate instability developing across
parts of the FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon, although the
potential for ongoing morning convection may hinder daytime heating
to some extent. Still, ascent associated with the upper trough, and
a related mid/upper-level jet, should help sustain thunderstorms
moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula
through the morning and perhaps early afternoon. Even though
deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels may support an
isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can
persist. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with
convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen
with daytime heating. The potential for redevelopment behind
early-day convection appears rather uncertain/conditional, as the
better forcing attendant to the upper trough should be moving
northeastward and away from the FL Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Modest low-level moisture should advance northward across parts of
the southern/central Plains through the period as weak cyclogenesis
occurs over the southern High Plains. Even though large-scale ascent
should remain modest beneath a strong southern-stream mid/
upper-level jet, some guidance suggests that robust convection may
develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of north-central TX
in the vicinity of a weak front/dryline intersection. Around 30-40
kt of deep-layer shear in combination with steepened low/mid-level
lapse rates and at least weak instability should support some
updraft organization if convection can initiate. Isolated large hail
appears possible with the stronger cores, along with occasional
severe winds. Have included a Marginal Risk across parts of
north-central TX to account for this potential, although the overall
threat remains somewhat conditional given nebulous large-scale
forcing. Generally elevated convection may also occur across a
broader part of the southern/central Plains Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning as a southerly low-level jet strengthens
across these regions. This activity should remain sub-severe,
although small hail appears possible.

..Gleason.. 03/05/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190450
SWODY2
SPC AC 190448

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of
the southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night. Some of this activity may pose at least some risk for severe
hail and wind.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate that a less amplified, but still broadly
confluent, split flow will evolve east of the Rockies into the
western Atlantic through this period. Within one branch,
consolidating short wave perturbations emanating from the higher
latitudes likely will continue digging to the southeast of the lower
Great Lakes region, before turning eastward across the remainder of
the Northeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night. This may be
accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis across portions of
northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes, trailed by a
reinforcing cold intrusion surging southeastward across much of the
northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and more slowly southward
across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valleys, Ozark Plateau and
central Great Plains through 12Z Thursday.

Within a lower-latitude branch, the remnants of a perturbation
emerging from the Southwest may slowly progress east of the Southern
Rockies in the form of generally weak positively tilted troughing,
but with perhaps a couple of still notable embedded smaller-scale
impulses. One of these, possibly still a fairly well-defined
mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, may progress east-southeastward
across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma late Wednesday
through Wednesday night. A trailing perturbation may accelerate
through stronger flow across the Southwestern international border
area toward the Texas Big Bend, preceded by a more subtle impulse
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may reach
Texas coastal areas by 12Z Thursday.

There is considerable spread evident in the model output concerning
these developments, but models continue to indicate little in the
way of substantive surface cyclogenesis, within broad surface
troughing across the southern Great Plains. And low-level moisture
return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer likely will be limited in
the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the
northern Gulf Basin. Better low-level moistening may remain
confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Texas
coastal plain, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air.

...Texas Panhandle Vicinity...
To the east of a weak surface low, surface dew points may only reach
the mid 40s to around 50F by late Wednesday afternoon. But it still
appears that daytime heating will contribute to a modestly deep,
well-mixed boundary layer, supportive of CAPE on the order of 500
J/kg, as relatively cold mid-level air (-20 to -22C around 500 mb)
overspreads the region with the approaching cyclonic vorticity
center. Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear may
only become modest, at best, this environment could still support
strong convection posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail
and a few strong gusts, before convection becomes more widespread
while spreading east-southeastward Wednesday evening.

...Southern Texas...
A warm elevated mixed layer will likely contribute to strong
inhibition through much of the period, but models suggest that a
return of mid 60s F surface dew points by late Wednesday night may
contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg. Considerable uncertainty still exists concerning forcing for ascent to overcome
the inhibition, but at least some model output suggests that a
subtropical perturbation could support the initiation of storms by
late Wednesday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, strong
deep-layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of
supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally strong wind
gusts.

..Kerr.. 03/19/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 200450
SWODY2
SPC AC 200448

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas
into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters
could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Downstream of a blocking regime centered across the northeastern
Pacific, it appears that split westerlies will continue to trend
more zonal to the east of the Rockies, in the wake of a deep,
occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian
Maritimes. Models suggest that the shallower leading edge of a
significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall and
undergo considerable modification across the southern Mid Atlantic,
Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains, into the
lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by late Thursday night.

In the wake of a preceding front, relatively cool conditions appear
likely to be maintained across much of the southeastern Great Plains
into northern Gulf coast vicinity, beneath increasingly widespread mid/high-level cloudiness and associated light to moderate rain
falling into an initially dry/potentially cool boundary layer. This
will precede one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the
subtropical eastern Pacific (readily evident in current satellite
imagery approaching Baja), and a remnant short wave perturbation
forecast to emerge from the Southwest.

There has been considerable spread evident in the various model
output concerning the emerging remnants of the closed from the
Southwest, as a persistent block inland of the Pacific coast breaks
down. Guidance has trended notably more sheared with an initial
perturbation forecast to accelerate east of southern Rockies through
the Texas Panhandle region late Wednesday into early Thursday. But
it still appears that a trailing perturbation may become better
defined and accelerate eastward within stronger mid-level flow,
across the Permian Basin/Texas Big Bend into the northwestern Gulf
coast by 12Z Friday.

Forcing associated with the trailing perturbation may contribute to
a developing frontal wave across the upper Texas into Louisiana
coastal plain, but guidance continues to suggest that this will
remain weak through this period.

...Texas...
It still appears that moderate boundary-layer CAPE will develop, in
association with moistening beneath warm and capping elevated
mixed-layer air across the lower into middle Texas coastal plain by
early Thursday. However, the continued northward advection of this boundary-layer moisture, and associated destabilization, is now more
unclear in latest model output.

Forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical perturbation is
generally forecast to reach middle into upper Texas coastal areas
Thursday morning through midday, if not earlier. And it appears
possible that this could support initially strong to severe
thunderstorm development, including supercells, before convection
consolidates into cluster and progresses offshore along a developing
warm frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

In the wake of this convection, daytime heating within at least a
modestly moist boundary-layer probably will contribute to at least
weak CAPE in a corridor from middle Texas coastal areas into the
Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. As the mid-level cold core
(-18 to -20C) of the perturbation emanating from the Southwest
overspreads this region Thursday evening, renewed vigorous
thunderstorm development appears possible. Strong deep-layer shear
may contribute to a risk for supercells initially, with at least
some potential for the evolution of an organizing cluster
overspreading the upper Texas into Louisiana coastal plain Thursday
night.

It is still possible that severe probabilities could be increased
across parts of central into southeastern Texas in later outlooks,
once the sub-synoptic developments become better resolved.

..Kerr.. 03/20/2024

$$
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