ACUS02 KWNS 140558
SWODY2
SPC AC 140557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill
Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday. Greatest
severe-storm threat is currently forecast across south-central
Texas.

...Synopsis...
Persistent upper low over the Lower CO River Valley/southern CA is
expected to remain in place throughout the day. A belt of moderate southwesterly flow is forecast to extend from the base of this upper
low across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley, and Southeast
states. Much of the guidance shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moving through this belt of southwesterly flow, from the TX Coastal
Plain across the Southeast, accompanied by a modest increase in the
mid-level flow across the Southeast.

Surface pattern early Friday morning is forecast to feature a low
near the OH/PA border, with an extensive cold front extending
southwestward from this low into the TX Hill Country. This front is
expected to make steady southeastward progress, likely ending the
period extended from the NC Coast southwestward into South TX.
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along outflow ahead of this
front for much of the period. Some strong to severe storms are
possible, particularly across central TX during the afternoon and
evening.

...TX Hill Country into Central/Southeast TX...
Other than some early morning storms expected across the TX Hill
Country, the region should remain free of storms into the afternoon.
This should allow the airmass to destabilize as temperatures climb
into the low 80s amid mid/upper 60s dewpoints. These warm and moist
surface conditions beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result
in strong buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate southwesterly
mid-level flow will be in place as well, contributing to 50+ kt of
deep-layer vertical shear.

Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low just
ahead of the cold front and/or outflow remnant from the early
morning storms will likely be enough to induce convective initiation
during the afternoon. Given the strong buoyancy, robust updrafts are
expected, with vertical shear supporting an initially discrete
supercellular mode. Large to very large hail will be the primary
severe risk, although a tornado or two is possible if the discrete supercellular mode can be maintained eastward into the TX Coastal
Plain where surface winds could be more southeasterly.

...Southeast States...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along an outflow boundary from
eastern TN into northern LA early Friday morning. Storm intensity
within this line is expected to be minimal during this time frame.
Some gradual reintensification of storms within this line is
possible, beginning in the early afternoon as both buoyancy and
vertical shear increase across the region. This is particularly true
across northern GA and downstream into SC, where the deep-layer
shear vector will be orientated more perpendicular to the outflow,
supporting a greater potential for a more forward-propagating line
segment. A more outflow-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear
vector is expected across much of MS and AL, but some potential for forward-propagating line segments still exists here as well. Primary
severe risk across the region will be damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier.. 03/14/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 141710
SWODY2
SPC AC 141708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas
Hill Country eastward across the Southeast States on Friday.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a deep upper low will remain situated over the Southwest,
with a confluent split-flow regime from the MS Valley toward the
OH/TN Valleys. Various convectively enhanced disturbances will
likely exist within the westerly flow from the lower MS Valley
toward the Southeast and Mid Atlantic throughout the day, with
scattered rain and thunderstorms.

At the surface, a relatively weak pre-frontal trough will stretch
roughly from southern TX east/northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic,
with low-level moisture most prominent across the Gulf Coast states.

...Central TX across the Southeastern states...
Storms are forecast to be ongoing over parts of the lower MS Valley
toward the southern Appalachians, with various outflows. Precise
locations of severe corridors will thus be difficult to ascertain,
but any storms in closer proximity to the richer instability pool
across TX, LA and MS will be a favored area for sporadic early-day
storms with damaging gust potential. Additional rejuvenation is
possible in association with outflow boundaries, and 40-50 kt
deep-layer shear will favor a few fast-moving storms with damaging
gusts.

Otherwise, the greatest diurnal severe threat appears to be along
the stalling boundary in south-central/southeast TX. Here, pockets
of heating and robust low-level moisture beneath 50+ midlevel flow
will support both hail and damaging gusts. However, severe coverage
may be relatively limited. As such, a small Slight Risk remains
valid.

..Jewell.. 03/14/2024

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