[Note - we've had at least one tornado on the ground here in KY and Southern IN]

ACUS01 KWNS 141632
SWODY1
SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes
are expected from parts of north-central Texas into the Midwest and
Mid-South. The greatest overall severe threat still appears to be
across eastern Oklahoma and far North Texas to the Ozarks.

...Missouri eastward into Kentucky/Indiana/Ohio...
A complex scenario is unfolding for today, given rather subtle
large-scale ascent across much of the area, but with a very
favorable background thermodynamic environment coupled with strong
deep-layer shear.

A line of strong/locally severe storms is ongoing this morning
across Indiana, which will continue eastward this afternoon into
Ohio. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk with
these storms, continuing across western Ohio before some weakening
eventually occurs given weakening instability with eastward extent
into the upper Ohio Valley.

In the wake of these storms, but ahead of a sagging cold front,
airmass recovery is underway. Clouds have cleared across Illinois
and for the most part Missouri as well, ahead of the front and in
the wake of earlier storms. Ongoing heating, beneath steep lapse
rates aloft, will result in a moderately unstable warm sector this
afternoon. CAMs continue to suggest redevelopment of more cellular
-- eventually clustered -- convection across this region this
afternoon, and eventually (presuming ample airmass recovery can
occur) into Indiana and possibly/eventually western Ohio. Though
low-level flow behind the initial band of Indiana storms will likely
remain somewhat veered, which may limit more substantial tornado
risk, very large hail is expected, along with damaging winds and a
couple of tornadoes. Storms could eventually grow upscale this
evening, spreading across the Tennessee Valley region accompanied by
continued severe risk.

...North Texas and the eastern half of Oklahoma to the Mid
Mississippi Valley area...
Storms have developed rapidly over the past hour across portions of
far northern Texas and into south-central Oklahoma near the slowly
advancing front/dryline, where heating beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates has resulted in development of 2000 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer
CAPE. With 50 kt mid-level southwesterlies across the region,
deep-layer shear is supportive of updraft rotation, and thus
associated potential for very large hail, along with locally severe
wind gusts. Low-level southerlies are contributing to sufficient
shear for a couple of tornadoes late this morning/early this
afternoon. However, gradual veering, and some weakening, of the
low-level wind field is expected, which should temper tornado risk
to some degree. Still, a couple of tornadoes are expected with stronger/sustained supercells.

With time, severe/supercell storms will spread eastward across the Ozarks/Arklatex, likely clustering to some degree into this evening,
though with supercell structures persisting. Very large hail,
locally damaging wind gusts, and potential for a couple of tornadoes
will continue, eventually reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area.

A few CAMs continue to suggest potential for overnight development
of storms across portions of central Texas, potential slightly
elevated atop of a slightly stable boundary layer. Given sufficient
shear and the steep lapse-rate environment, conditional risk for
very large hail remains evident.

..Goss/Lyons.. 03/14/2024

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ACUS01 KWNS 181249
SWODY1
SPC AC 181247

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH
VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging gusts to 70 mph, large hail in excess of 2 inches in
diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected mainly this
afternoon into early tonight across the middle Mississippi and lower
Ohio Valleys. More isolated large hail and damaging winds will be
possible farther south from northern Mississippi and Arkansas into
central Texas.

...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys through tonight...
An occluded cyclone will move eastward into western ON, as part of a
deep mid-upper low over western ON/northern MN by the end of the
period. Farther to the south, a secondary cyclone will move across
MO to southeast Lower MI in association with an embedded jet on the
southern periphery of the deep midlevel low to the north, as a cold
front progresses southeastward across the mid MS Valley and the
southern Plains. Ahead of the secondary low and cold front, a
moistening warm sector will spread northeastward from MO to
southern/central IL and southwest IN (boundary-layer dewpoints well
into the 60s) beneath lingering midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km.
The net result will be an unstable warm sector with MLCAPE near 2000
J/kg and only weak convective inhibition.

The remnants of morning convection across MO could be rejuvenated by midday-early afternoon, with an intensifying band of storms expected
to spread east-southeastward through the afternoon across the mid MS
Valley and into tonight across the lower OH Valley. The combination
of moderate-strong buoyancy and sufficient hodograph
length/low-level curvature will support a mix of embedded supercells
and bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds of 60-70
mph, large hail of 1-2.5 inches in diameter, and a couple of
tornadoes.

...AR/southeast OK/north and central TX this afternoon/evening...
Surface heating within an already moist air mass (68-72 F
boundary-layer dewpoints) will drive strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of
2500-3500 J/kg) this afternoon ahead of a surface cold front.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by about 21z along
the front from northwest AR across southeast OK into north and
central TX. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for some
supercell structures capable of producing isolated very large hail
(up to 2.5 inches in diameter), along with damaging outflow gusts
given the potential for strong downdrafts. These storms will last a
few hours into late evening and then weaken as convective inhibition
increases.

...Southeast AR into northern MS this afternoon/evening...
An embedded speed max noted over north TX in the subtropical stream
will progress eastward toward the MS River by late afternoon. Weak
ascent preceding the wave within an unstable warm sector, along with
surface heating in cloud breaks, could be sufficient for widely
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. If a few storms
do form, the environment will conditionally favor supercells capable
of producing large hail/damaging winds.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 04/18/2024

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