ACUS03 KWNS 150727
SWODY3
SPC AC 150726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may
impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by
at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal
areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high,
initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will
remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may
begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the
various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low
over the Southwest.

Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short
wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue
sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into
lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an
associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the
process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the
Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central
portions of the Great Plains.

Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which
likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime
downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating
east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley.

...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast...
Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be
supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts
of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early
Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least
initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated
mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be
contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail.

As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal
areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire
increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by
CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output
(including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that
activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for
potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could
reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before
more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening.

..Kerr.. 03/15/2024

$$
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