ACUS02 KWNS 260600
SWODY2
SPC AC 260558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
parts of north Florida and north-central Texas. Severe hail and
occasional damaging winds should be the main threats across both
areas.

...North Florida...
The southern portion of an upper trough will move across the
southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning along a
pre-frontal convergence zone over parts of north FL and coastal GA.
This activity should hinder the development of appreciable
instability through much of the day as the southern-stream upper
trough approaches from the west. Still, some diurnal heating should
occur on the southern flank of the morning activity. This will aid
the development of weak to locally moderate instability by Wednesday
afternoon across parts of north FL. Gradually strengthening
mid-level west-southwesterly flow through the day should also foster
moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting convective
organization. There should be a narrow spatial area of strong to
severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon across parts of
north FL, assuming sufficient destabilization occurs. Overall
thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated to perhaps
widely scattered. But, the strongest cores may be capable of
producing isolated, marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging
winds before moving off the Atlantic Coast.

...North-Central Texas...
Ample daytime heating should occur through Wednesday afternoon
across TX, on the backside of a southern-stream upper trough. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft are forecast to be
present across the much of the southern Plains. As the boundary
layer warms and becomes well mixed, most guidance shows weak
instability (around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE) developing along/east of
a weak surface trough. Even though low-level moisture is expected to
remain quite limited due to a recent frontal passage, there appears
to be enough instability to support at least isolated thunderstorm
development across parts of north-central TX and vicinity Wednesday
afternoon. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, occasional strong to
severe winds may occur with the more robust downdrafts. Isolated
severe hail also appears possible, as around 25-35 kt of deep-layer
supports some updraft organization. This marginal hail/wind threat
should subside Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating.

..Gleason.. 03/26/2024

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