ACUS02 KWNS 300553
SWODY2
SPC AC 300551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat with a potential for isolated large hail,
and perhaps a few isolated strong wind gusts, are expected Sunday
and Sunday night from the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the
mid to upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys...
An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the
eastern two-thirds of the nation on Sunday. At the surface, a warm
front is forecast to move northward through the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and to the north of the boundary during the afternoon and evening
from northeast Missouri eastward to the central Appalachians. Most
of the storms will remain elevated. Additional storms may develop
further to the west in parts of northwest Missouri and southeast
Nebraska during the overnight period.

Forecast soundings around 00Z from northern Missouri eastward to
central Indiana and southwest Ohio by 00Z have MUCAPE in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range. Effective shear along much of this east-to-west
corridor is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot range. This
environment, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km
will likely be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat with
supercells and the more intense multicells. A more confined
potential for surface-based storms is expected from northern
Missouri into central Illinois. These storms could obtain a
wind-damage or marginal tornado threat. The severe threat may
persist across parts of the region into the overnight period. After
midnight, the greatest potential for isolated large hail would be in
far southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri where mid-level lapse
rates are forecast to be steep.

..Broyles.. 03/30/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 060526
SWODY2
SPC AC 060524

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SABINE TO
WABASH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon
to mid-evening on Sunday, from parts of the Wabash and
Mid-Mississippi Valleys to the Ark-La-Miss and Sabine Valley.

...Synopsis...
An amplified mid/upper low over the NE vicinity will dampen as it
drifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Attendant deep surface
cyclone near central NE will occlude and weaken as it drifts east
across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into the northern IA vicinity.
Arcing Pacific cold front/dryline should still push east through the
day, before the trailing portion in the south-central states
undergoes frontolysis Sunday evening/night.

...Wabash/Mid-MS to the Sabine Valleys...
Isolated severe thunderstorm potential should largely focus within
about a 6-hour window from 21-03Z along and immediately ahead of the
composite front/dryline arcing from the occluding surface cyclone in
the Mid-MO Valley. With the lack of an elevated mixed layer across
much of the warm-moist sector, appreciable boundary-layer moisture
return will occur in a confined corridor ahead of the front. Upper
50s to low 60s surface dew points should reasonably spread into a
part of the Mid-MS to Wabash Valleys from the western Gulf Coast
States. Full insolation behind the boundary will yield surface
temperatures warming through the 70s behind and along it. This
should support a narrow plume of weak MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg.

Mid-level height falls will be confined north of the Mid-South
region with neutral to weak height rises expected with southern
extent. Still, adequate low-level convergence in conjunction with
negligible MLCIN should support a swath of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms towards late afternoon/early evening. Mid/upper-level
wind profiles will remain favorable for a few discrete supercells
before flow further relaxes deeper into the evening. A tornado or
two is possible, mainly in the Mid-South where stronger low-level
wind profiles overlap the northern extent of the low 60s surface dew
points. Otherwise, a mix of isolated severe hail and localized
severe wind gusts will be possible before convective intensity wanes
after sunset.

..Grams.. 04/06/2024

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