ACUS03 KWNS 310719
SWODY3
SPC AC 310718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the
central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will
be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to
be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West
Virginia.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in
place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s
F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day,
widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms
are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with
a large MCS moving eastward into the central Appalachians by
evening. Additional storms are expected to develop along and near a
front in the Mid-Atlantic.

Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1000 J/kg during
the afternoon across much of the moist airmass. Although instability
should remain somewhat modest, large-scale ascent and strong
deep-layer shear will support a severe threat in most areas. While
supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be
multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during
the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving
line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating
cells. Supercells, or the more the intense QLCS circulations could
develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to
be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet
should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the south-central
U.S. on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward across the lower
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s F, will enable the airmass to become unstable by
afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range
during the afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms
will likely initiate from near the front eastward across parts of
the moist airmass. Strong deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse
rates ahead of the front will be favorable for a severe threat,
especially in the northern Gulf Coast states where large-scale
ascent will be more favorable. Wind damage and hail will be possible
with the stronger multicells. An isolated tornado threat may also
develop as low-level shear becomes maximized in the late afternoon
and early evening.

..Broyles.. 03/31/2024

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