ACUS02 KWNS 310601
SWODY2
SPC AC 310600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread severe threat, with a potential for large hail, wind
damage and tornadoes, is expected on Monday and Monday night from
parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi
Valley. Very large hail will be possible across parts of the
southern Plains and Ozarks. The greatest tornado threat is expected
from southern Missouri into southern Illinois Monday evening. The
severe threat is also expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley,
especially during the evening and overnight period.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower
Ohio Valley...
A positively tilted upper-level trough will move through the Desert
Southwest on Monday, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves
through the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet
will overspread a moist and unstable airmass across the southern
Plains during the afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen in
west Texas, moving eastward into Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon.
Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will be in place across
the eastern half of Texas, and from central and eastern Oklahoma
extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate
instability is expected to develop by afternoon to the east of a
dryline from north Texas northward to near a triple point in central
Oklahoma. The airmass should be uncapped, allowing for widespread
convective development from the mid to late afternoon into the
evening. Thunderstorms will also likely develop in the Ozarks and
mid Mississippi Valley during the evening, as the mid-level jet
approaches the region from the southwest.

Within the exit region of the mid-level jet, a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates is forecast to advect quickly eastward across
the southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening.
Forecast soundings in east-central Oklahoma at 00Z/Tuesday suggest
that 700-500 mb lapse rates within this plume will be in the 7.5 to
8 C/km range. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, will
support a large-hail threat with supercells. Hailstones of greater
than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant
and intense storms. The potential for very large hail may extend as
far northeast as the Ozarks, as the exit region of the mid-level jet
passes over the area during the early to mid evening.

From southern Missouri into southern Illinois, a warm front will
likely be in place. The surface low is forecast to move
east-northeastward along this corridor. Forecast soundings ahead of
the surface low from 03Z to 06Z/Tuesday suggest that 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity will increase into 250 to 350 m2/s2 range,
as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This should be
favorable for tornadoes with the more dominant supercells that
interact with the warm front. A potential for strong tornadoes will
exist. A large MCS is forecast to organize from the southern Plains
into the mid Mississippi Valley during the evening. The stronger
storms within this MCS will also have wind-damage potential.

...Mid to Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Monday
across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
forecast to be located from southern Ohio east-southeastward into
the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary will likely be a focus for
convective development from the daytime hours into the overnight
period. Although instability is forecast to remain weak near the
boundary, strong deep-layer shear will be in place. This should
support an isolated severe threat, potentially persisting for an
extended period of time. Hail and isolated damaging gusts will
likely be the primary concerns. The severe threat will likely be
more isolated with eastward extent, mainly due to more limited
low-level moisture content across the Mid-Atlantic.

..Broyles.. 03/31/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 311727
SWODY2
SPC AC 311725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the
southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a
small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very-large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes are possible. The severe threat will peak afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat
for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period.

...Synopsis...
A rather broad, positively tilted upper trough will be positioned
within the Four Corners region. A mid-level jet streak will move
northeastward through the Trans-Pecos and into Red River region by
early evening. This feature is forecast to be weakening during the
afternoon as it shifts northeast. As the mid-level jet moves into
the Midwest during the evening, a short-wave trough is expected to
intensify in the Upper Midwest, with mid-level winds increasing
across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a modest surface mass
response is anticipated in the southern Plains. Guidance generally
depicts a modest surface low developing in western/central Oklahoma.
A dryline will be pendant from this feature and provide a focus for
convective development during the afternoon. This surface low will
track northeastward along with its parent upper trough along nearly
stationary boundary from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Some deepening of this low may occur very late in the
period as the upper wave intensifies.

...Southern High Plains...
As the upper-level trough ejects into the region, sufficient
moisture for high-based convection should exist in the Texas
Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A few convectively enhanced
gusts may occur with this activity. Buoyancy should remain too
limited for more than small hail.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
Between cloud cover and a capping inversion aloft, storm development
along the dryline should hold off until the mid/late afternoon when
greater mid-level ascent arrives. Strong deep-layer shear should
promote supercell storm structures at least initially. Hodographs
will be long and generally straight, but there are also veer-back
signatures that could indicate some potential for a messier storm
mode. Even so, potential for large to very-large hail is evident
given the shear and mid-level lapse rates. The tornado risk should
be mitigated to some extent by the overall weak low-level shear.
That being said, supercells that can be maintained into the early
evening (00-03Z) will see a brief window of increased tornado
potential as the low-level jet modestly strengthens.

Farther south into central Texas, forcing will be a bit weaker and
capping a touch stronger. Storms that do develop will likely have
supercellular characteristics. Large-hail and damaging winds are the
most likely hazards.

...Ozarks into Ohio Valley...
Some warm advection driven convection may be ongoing early in the
period across parts of these regions. These storms will likely be
elevated with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. By
the afternoon, greater potential for surface-based storms will exist
from the triple point near the KS/OK border and along the cold front
in southeast Kansas into Missouri. These storms will at least
initially be supercells with potential for very-large hail. Storms
are expected to grow upscale with a greater risk of damaging winds.
While not overly strong, low-level shear should remain sufficient
for a threat of QLCS circulations/tornadoes.

It is possible that initially elevated storms may become near
surface based during the afternoon in the Ohio Valley. Additional
storms will likely move in from the west later in the evening
overnight as the shortwave trough/surface low move northeastward.
Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes would be possible with this
activity. The hail threat is a bit uncertain given the potential for
more linear storm modes. However, large hail will remain possible.

...Parts of Mid-Atlantic...
Overall storm coverage is uncertain given the generally neutral
mid-level height changes through the period. Some model solutions do
produce convection along the stationary surface boundary. Given
strong mid-level winds and modestly steep lapse rates aloft,
marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds could occur with
the stronger storms.

..Wendt.. 03/31/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the
central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will
be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to
be greatest from middle Tennessee north-northeastward into central
and northern Kentucky.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast States/Central
Appalachians...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid to
upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances
eastward toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. By afternoon, a
north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast
to be in place from the northern Gulf Coast States to central
Kentucky, where surface dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s
F. As instability increases along this corridor, numerous
thunderstorms will likely develop, with a linear MCS organizing and
moving eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the
afternoon and evening. This large MCS should reach the central
Appalachians by early to mid evening.

A 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet will likely move northeastward into
the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. This jet will create strong
deep-layer shear across most of the region. Forecast soundings by
21Z from middle Tennessee to central Kentucky have 0-6 km shear in
the 70 to 80 knot range. The wind shear and strong large-scale
ascent, associated with the mid-level jet, will be favorable for the development of a squall line Tuesday afternoon. This linear MCS will
likely have numerous embedded severe storms with the greatest threat
being wind damage. The wind-damage threat is expected to maximize
during the late afternoon and early evening. QLCS tornadic
circulations will be possible along some parts of the line,
especially near bowing segments. An isolated large hail threat is
also expected in areas where the squall line interacts with locally
stronger instability, and with isolated rotating cells that develop
ahead of the line. The severe threat is expected to decrease during
the mid to late evening as the line moves through the central
Appalachians.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the lower
Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints should be in the mid to upper
60s F ahead of the front, where some models suggest that MLCAPE will
peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development appears likely to take place ahead of the
front early in the day, with an organized line segment or cluster
moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast States during the
afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will be in place, and low-level
lapse rates will steepen during the late morning and early
afternoon. The environment will likely support a wind-damage and
isolated large-hail threat. An isolated tornado threat will also be
possible, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states near the
southern edge of the low-level jet. Large-scale ascent and
deep-layer shear are forecast to be somewhat weaker across the
central and southern Gulf Coast states, which should result in a
more isolated severe threat with southward extent.

...Mid-Atlantic...
An anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Eastern Seaboard
on Tuesday. At the surface, a relatively cold airmass is forecast
across much of the Mid-Atlantic due to cold air damming. Above the
cold surface air, elevated instability is forecast to increase
during the evening, as the exit region of the mid-level jet moves
through the central Appalachians. Thunderstorms that form in the
unstable air aloft, may have a potential for marginally severe hail
during the evening into the early overnight period.

..Broyles.. 04/01/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 140556
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN OK
AND A PART OF NORTHWEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to
central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are
possible.

...Central/southern Great Plains...
A shortwave trough will be centered on the southeast Great Basin at
12Z Monday. Multiple embedded impulses will eject east across the
southern Rockies and Southwest, and onto the central to southern
High Plains by early morning Tuesday. This fragmented evolution and
timing of ejection onto the southern High Plains appears ill-timed
with the peak diurnal heating cycle. The southern/more vigorous of
the impulses will yield substantial tropospheric flow amplification
as a mid-level jetlet in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb evolves across
the southern TX Panhandle into south KS Monday night.

Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains
by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through
12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest
Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or
deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew
points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of
the dryline by evening with low 60s to upper 50s with northern
extent in the central Great Plains.

Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development will
probably be bimodal, with more probable convection across the
central High Plains arcing east-southeast along the surface warm
front into the Mid-MO Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will be less
with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a
meridional to backed wind profile should be conducive to large hail
and isolated severe wind gusts. Along the warm front into the Mid-MO
Valley, most development should remain on the cool side of the
surface warm front amid northeast storm motions, but there will be
the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a
tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail.

A separate corridor of a few storms should form in west TX along the
dryline within the deeply mixed air owing to a stout capping
inversion across the warm-moist sector where mid/upper-level
cloudiness should temper insolation. Mid-level height falls and
tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night. 00Z NCEP
guidance outside of the GFS suggest minimal to isolated convective
coverage should be expected until near the end of the period, while
the ECMWF remains consistent with earlier runs depicting
substantially greater convective development overnight. While this
lowers confidence in the degree of supercell coverage amid robust
MLCIN with southeast extent in OK/TX, have maintained level 3-ENH
risk where the conditional threat for strong supercells is greatest.

...VA/NC...
A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday,
with a ribbon of modest boundary-layer moisture along it. Strong
insolation will occur ahead of it into NC, yielding a deeply mixed
boundary layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for
isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon.
Moderate mid-level flow will be present and increase in height
within the peripheral influence of a strong jet across parts of the
Great Lakes into southern New England. Amid steep mid-level lapse
rates, overall setup should support a few multicells capable of
marginally severe hail initially, and strong to marginally severe
wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening after dusk.

..Grams.. 04/14/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 241732
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and
southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a
couple strong tornadoes will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the day extended from
central NV into far northwest Mexico before then quickly moving
eastward across the Southwest and into the southern/central High
Plains, becoming increasingly negatively tilted with time. Strong
mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading
eastward/northeastward into the central and southern Plains ahead of
the parent shortwave.

At the surface, cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of the shortwave
trough across the central High Plains, with the resulting low then
gradually moving northeastward from eastern CO into western
KS/southwest NE late Thursday night/early Friday morning. A
sharpening dryline will extend southward from this low throughout
most of the period. A warm front will extend east-southeastward
from this low as well, extending into northeast OK Thursday morning.
This warm front is forecast to move northward throughout the day,
moving through much of KS by early Friday morning. A moist and
buoyant warm sector will exist south of this front, and strong to
severe thunderstorms are anticipated the shortwave interacts with
it.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday
morning from north-central/eastern KS into western MO and
northeastern OK, supported by strong warm-air advection across the
warm front. Given that at least moderately low-level southerly flow
is expected to persist throughout the period, expectation is that
this activity will persist as well, while perhaps gradually shifting southeastward with time. Overall buoyancy and vertical shear will be
modest, but a few stronger cores capable isolated hail are possible.
Overall evolution of this early morning activity could lead to
either a sharpening of the warm front from the central KS vicinity southeastward through northeast OK into western AR or potentially southward/southwestward slow-moving outflow boundary. This sharp
boundary is expected to limit to eastern/northeastern extent of the
greater severe potential.

Farther west, persistent moisture advection is anticipated amid
moderate low-level southerly flow ahead of the approaching shortwave
trough. This is expected to result in mid 60s dewpoints by the
mid-afternoon across much of the eastern TX/OK Panhandle and OK,
with low 60s dewpoints reaching into south-central KS. Mid 60s
dewpoints are expected into western and south-central KS by early
evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates will exist a top this low-level
moisture, supporting moderate to strong buoyancy, with the
strengthening mid-level flow supporting robust deep-layer vertical
shear as well.

Some capping is anticipated along the dryline, but the combination
of strong diurnal heating (in the wake of morning clouds),
increasing large-scale ascent, and low-level convergence is expected
to result in convective initiation during the late afternoon. Widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorm coverage appears probable, with
storms quickly becoming severe after initiation. Large to very large
hail will be the primary threat with the initial development. The
tornado threat will also increase with any supercell that persists
into the evening, with low-level shear/SRH expected to increase with
time and eastward extent. As such any longer-lived supercells could
pose a strong tornado threat, particularly across
west-central/southwest KS where surface flow will be backed given
closer proximity of the surface low.

Additional thunderstorms are anticipated farther south Thursday
night as the Pacific front surges eastward. Highest storm coverage
currently appears most likely from southwest OK into northwest TX.
Initial development could produce large to very large hail before
then transitioning to a more linear mode. Some downstream severe
threat into north-central TX and south-central/central OK appears
likely, although uncertainty remains regarding overall intensity,
largely as a result of low-level nocturnal stability. However,
kinematic fields are quite strong and could maintain organized storm
structures capable of all severe hazards eastward into north-central
TX and south-central/central OK. This area will be assessed for
increased severe probabilities in later outlooks.

...Central High Plains into Nebraska...
Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from northeast CO/NE
Panhandle northeastward into NE Thursday night as large-scale ascent
spreads across the region. Most of this activity will be elevated,
but the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
vertical shear suggests large hail is possible with these storms,
with perhaps even some very large hail (i.e. 2 to 2.5" in diameter)
in the CO/NE/KS border vicinity where surface-based parcels are
possible.

...Eastern WY into Southwest SD...
Moderate buoyancy will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm
development into the Black Hills vicinity. Deep-layer shear will be
weaker in this area than areas farther south, but may still be
sufficient for modestly organized storms capable of large hail.

..Mosier.. 04/24/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 250602
SWODY2
SPC AC 250600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN NE...NORTHEAST KS...WESTERN IA...NORTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
An active severe weather day appears possible on Friday from parts
of Nebraska and Iowa southward into parts of the southern Great
Plains and Ozarks. A few tornadoes (possibly strong), large to very
large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
surface low are forecast to move northeastward toward the upper
Great Lakes from Friday into Friday night. A trailing Pacific
front/dryline will move eastward through the day across the
central/southern Plains, before retreating westward Friday night. A
warm front will move northward in advance of the surface low across
MO into parts of IA. Farther west, another deep mid/upper-level
trough will move eastward across the Southwest into the southern
Rockies.

...Eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO...
Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible from
eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO, though coverage of the threat with
southward extent somewhat uncertain at this time.

In the wake of morning convection, at least a narrow zone of
moderate destabilization will be possible from parts of eastern NE
into western IA, between the northward-moving warm front and
approaching Pacific front/dryline. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected during the afternoon, with favorably veering
low-level wind profiles and moderate deep-layer shear supporting
supercell potential. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail
threat, with some potential for very large hail depending on the
magnitude of destabilization. A few tornadoes will also be possible,
both in the vicinity of the surface low, and with any longer-lived
supercells along the dryline into southeast NE/southwest IA.

Farther south, a broader and potentially more unstable warm sector
is expected to evolve across eastern KS into western MO. While
large-scale ascent will be weaker with southward extent, at least
isolated supercell development will be possible along the dryline by
late afternoon. Any sustained supercells within this regime would
pose a threat for tornadoes and very large hail. A strong tornado or
will be possible if stronger pre-convective destabilization can
materialize.

...Eastern OK/northeast TX into AR/southern MO...
Initially strong storm clusters are expected to move across eastern
OK and potentially northeast TX into AR and MO through the morning,
accompanied by at least an isolated hail and damaging gust threat.
Some of this convection may persist or tend to regenerate along the
eastern periphery of the primary instability axis. The eastern
extent of any severe threat remains uncertain, but favorable
low-level and deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized
convection, with an isolated/marginal threat for all severe hazards.

Farther west, moderate to strong instability and deep-layer shear
will support a conditionally favorable environment along the dryline
from eastern OK into northeast TX. In the wake of the departing
shortwave trough, development along the dryline in this area will
likely be very isolated, though any sustained cells would pose a
threat for very large hail and possibly a tornado.

...Edwards Plateau into the Permian Basin vicinity of TX...
As the dryline retreats late Friday night, convection could develop
prior to the end of the period into parts of southwest TX, in
advance of the approaching southwestern trough. Instability and
shear would be sufficient for organized convection, though timing
and coverage of any threat in this area remain too uncertain at this
time for probabilities.

..Dean.. 04/25/2024

$$
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