ACUS02 KWNS 070544
SWODY2
SPC AC 070542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early
afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of
Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana.
A few tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and isolated
severe wind gusts will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper low will drift east-northeast across the Upper Midwest
while a separate shortwave trough digs over the Southwest before
pivoting along the border with northwest Mexico. Low-level warm
theta-e advection will persist across much of the South-Central
States through the period. The primary low-level jet will be
centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX into the Ark-La-Tex
and Ark-La-Miss. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest
trough will increase across the west TX vicinity in the early
morning Tuesday.

...Southern Great Plains...
Strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest
Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early
afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated
mixed layer across west/central TX. Guidance does differ with how
far west and south this initial convection will develop into central
TX, but a favorable environment for at least a few supercells should
evolve from near the I-35 corridor across a portion of east TX. The
impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates and very fast upper-level
flow will foster an elongated hodograph within the largest portion
of the buoyancy profile. This will support a threat for very large
hail, generally favored along the southwest part of the overall
convective plume as a cluster convective mode dominates with
northern extent. Low-level hodograph curvature will also be
sufficient for a tornado threat, especially towards early evening as
winds slowly increase.

Separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to
the dryline in west TX and its intersection with the effective warm front/surface trough into southwest OK during the evening, and in
another round during the early morning Tuesday. Convective
development is most probable in the early evening over the northwest
TX to southwest OK vicinity, with less confidence southward in west
TX. This development will be high based initially along the fringe
of the moisture return. Outflow-dominated supercells will be capable
of producing large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts.

MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates
become very steep (around 9 C/km) across west TX and moist advection
continues to surge west-northwest. Guidance differs on the degree of
overnight development as mid-level height falls increase late. The
00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing
convection across west TX by 12Z Tuesday, which now has support of
the 00Z HRW-FV3. The strongly sheared and very steep lapse rate
environment will yield a primary threat of very large hail in any
sustained supercells.

..Grams.. 04/07/2024

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