ACUS02 KWNS 110550
SWODY2
SPC AC 110549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST
OR...SOUTHWEST ID...AND FAR NORTH NV...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible across
parts of the northwest Great Basin vicinity during the late
afternoon to early evening Friday.

...Northwest Great Basin...
An amplified shortwave trough will approach but remain west of the
central CA coast through 12Z Saturday. While the bulk of PW increase
will remain over parts of CA and the OR Pacific Coast, modest
moistening should occur within the 700-mb baroclinic zone farther
east across northwest NV and east OR into southwest ID. Isolated to
scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop just after peak
heating. Moderate southwesterly flow should exist within the meager
buoyancy layer between the offshore trough and the mid-level ridge
that will become centered over the High Plains. Strong to localized
severe wind gusts will be the main threat. Marginally severe hail
may occur in a portion of east OR/southwest ID where brief supercell
structures are possible, before convection wanes after dusk.

...East...
Deep surface cyclone near the Georgian Bay of Lake Huron at 12Z
Friday should occlude and slowly weaken as it continues
northeastward into western Quebec. The arcing occluded front across
parts of the Northeast may be a focus for low-topped convection
during the late morning to early afternoon. Low-level hodograph
curvature should be largest at the beginning of the period, and
weaken through the day. Surface-based destabilization appears to be
very limited, and the severe threat in the east NY vicinity appears
too low to warrant an areal delineation.

As the northern-stream shortwave impulse translates through the
basal portion of the amplified upper trough over the East, cold
mid-level temperatures will support isolated to scattered low-topped
convection spreading from west to east across parts of the central
OH Valley/Cumberland Plateau into VA/NC. Surface-based buoyancy
should be scant at most amid decidedly westerly wind profiles.
Still, moderate to strong low-level flow may be mixed to the surface
and yield locally gusty winds during the afternoon.

..Grams.. 04/11/2024

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