• MESO: Severe Potential E

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Mon Apr 15 10:12:00 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 151501
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151501
    MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-151630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0438
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1001 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

    Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia...northern
    Virginia and western Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 151501Z - 151630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated showers and thunderstorms may produce gusty winds
    or small hail the next couple of hours across parts of the West
    Virginia, Maryland and Virginia border vicinity.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed late this
    morning ahead of a stationary boundary near the WV/MD/VA border.
    This activity is likely somewhat elevated. Nevertheless, weak
    instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE) amid steep
    midlevel lapse rates and modest effective shear could support
    sporadic small hail. A dry, mixed boundary-layer and light low-level
    flow also may foster gusty winds around 40-50 mph. This initial
    thunderstorm activity is expected to remain isolated and the overall
    severe threat limited over the next couple of hours, and a watch is
    not expected. The severe threat will increase across portions of
    Mid-Atlantic later this afternoon, and this later threat will be
    addressed with additional MCDs in the coming hours.

    ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/15/2024


    ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 39737960 39597725 39007670 38677719 38727842 38957953
    39207981 39737960

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