FOUS11 KWBC 220816
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 22 2025 - 12Z Sat Jan 25 2025

...Southeast...
Day 1...

...Significant and historic winter storm concludes later this morning...

The historic winter storm that produced heavy snowfall and
disruptive ice accumulations along the Gulf Coast yesterday is
producing heavy snow this morning in the Southeast from northern
Florida to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast. Snow and ice should
finally conclude around midday today, leaving frigid and near-
record cold in its wake for the remainder of the week. WPC
probabilities shows moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for
additional ice accumulations >0.01" in northern FL, especially
west of the Jacksonville metro area. Additional snowfall
accumulations of 1-2" are expected along the Southeast coast with
the NC Outer Banks potentially receiving as much as 3" in some locations.

In wake of this storm, travel will remain severely impacted
tonight throughout much of the South with lingering icy conditions.
See our Key Messages for more information that cover the final
stages of this system, as well as the extreme cold over much of
the eastern half of the Lower 48.


...Great Lakes...
Days 1-2...

The lake effect snow (LES) machine will continue for one more day
across the upper Great Lakes while the wind shifts out of the SW
over the eastern Great Lakes lead to the single bands off Lakes
Ontario and Erie tapering off. A clipper system tracking through
Lake Superior today will lead to modest WAA over Lakes Superior and
Michigan that, thanks in large part to the air-mass still remaining
plenty cold throughout the depth of the troposphere, will support
periods of snow through this evening. Cyclonic flow will persist in
wake of the weakening clipper system on Thursday which may trigger
a few LES bands off Lakes Superior and Michigan. This keeps snow
showers in the forecast on Thursday, but snow should taper off by
Friday as high pressure builds in throughout the region.

WPC 2-day probabilities showed moderate chances (40-60%) for
snowfall >8" along the western coast of Michigan's Mitten. There
are high chance probabilities (>70%) for snowfall totals >4" along
much of the northern tier communities of the Michigan U.P.. The
WSSI shows Minor Impacts in these areas through Friday morning.


...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Days 1-3...

Over the next few days, a series of upper level shortwave troughs
will track from NW to SE across the region, providing both upper-
level forcing and periodic rounds of Pacific moisture that foster
periods of snow. The progressive nature of these disturbances and
lack of deep moisture at mid-levels will help to keep most areas of
heavy snow limited to the mountain ranges of central Montana,
northern Wyoming, and the Black Hills. WPC probabilities show high
chances (>70%) for >8" of snow in the Little Belt, Big Snowy,
Absaroka, Big Horns, and Black Hills through Friday. The mountains
that are most likely to see 1-2 feet of snow are the Little Belt,
Big Snowy, and Big Horns, specifically in their taller/more remote peaks.


Mullinax


...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_2.png

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