535
AXNT20 KNHC 011033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Feb 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Pulsing gale force winds are expected
each night and morning offshore of Colombia through at least the
middle of next week as a tight pressure gradient persists between
ridging in the central Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern
Colombia. Very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are anticipated with these winds.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and continues
to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 05N
between 40W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south
of 08N between 10W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northern Floria to the SW Gulf of
Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the
southeastern Bay of Campeche, west of a trough analyzed from
23N87W to 19N91W. Strong to near-gale force winds are occurring
behind the cold front offshore of Veracruz, where very rough seas
are noted. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and moderate seas are
occurring elsewhere behind the frontal boundary and in the
eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate SW winds and slight to moderate
seas are present ahead of the front in the NE Gulf. Elsewhere in
the Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly
progress southeastward today before stalling and eventually
dissipating this weekend. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds will
occur behind this front this morning, and strong to near-gale
force winds and very rough seas will occur offshore of Veracruz.
Winds will diminish from north to south today. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front, supporting gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf this afternoon
through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning
over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.

A robust subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to
dominate the Caribbean Sea. Outside of the south-central
Caribbean, fresh to strong E trade winds prevail across the
eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Moderate to rough seas are
noted in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and
moderate seas are noted south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, while
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in
the rest of the area.

For the forecast, pulsing gale force winds are expected each
night and morning offshore of Colombia as a tight pressure
gradient persists between ridging in the central Atlantic and low
pressure over northwestern Colombia. Very rough seas of 12 to 14
ft are anticipated with these winds. Fresh trades will occur
across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean through the
middle of next week, with winds pulsing to fresh speeds in the
northwestern Caribbean by early next week. Pulsing strong winds
are expected in the central Caribbean, as well as through the
Windward Passage and downwind of Hispaniola. Rough seas will
accompany the fresh winds in the southwestern and central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, residual E swell will combine with new N
swell this weekend, leading to locally rough seas near the
Windward and Leeward Islands and through the passages into the
Caribbean through next week. Otherwise, slight to moderate seas
are expected in the northwestern Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N40W to 26N56W, then followed
by a shear line to just north of Hispaniola. The rest of the SW
North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence a strong
subtropical ridge north of the area. The pressure gradient between
the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressures associated
with a cold front moving off the southeastern coast of the United
States is resulting in fresh to strong S winds and moderate to
rough seas north of 28N and west of 70W. Fresh to locally strong E
to SE winds and moderate to rough seas are present in the
remainder of the SW North Atlantic.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1033 mb high
pressure system between the Azores and Madeira Islands. The tight
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW
Africa and deep tropics result in fresh to near gale-force N-NE
winds south of a line from 31N22W to 25N55W and east of 55W. These
winds are sustaining rough to locally very rough seas, with the
highest seas occurring north of the Cabo Verde Islands and between
the Canary Islands and Morocco. Moderate to fresh E winds and
moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N and between 50W
and the Lesser Antilles. In the remainder of the basin, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between high
pressure in the central Atlantic and a cold front moving off the
coast of the southeastern United States will support widespread
fresh E to SE winds north of 22N early this morning. Strong S
winds will be possible off the coast of Florida, north of 28.5N,
this morning. The cold front will progress eastward today before
eventually stalling and dissipating this weekend. Winds will
diminish in the aforementioned areas by this afternoon as the
pressure gradient relaxes between the cold front and the ridge.
Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will prevail
south of 22N through the middle of next week. North of 22N, gentle
to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected for Sun through
early next week.

$$
ADAMS
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

219
AXNT20 KNHC 021041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Feb 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds will pulse to gale force each night
and early morning offshore of Colombia this week, supported by a
strong pressure gradient between low pressure over northwestern
Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic. Peak seas in
excess of 12 ft are expected near and to the west of these winds.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to
03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N
between Africa and NE South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front extends from central Florida to
25N84W. Elsewhere, a surface trough has been analyzed from 22N98W
in eastern Mexico extending southeastward through the Bay of
Campeche. Moderate NE winds are noted in the region, and isolated
showers are occurring near the trough. Otherwise, a 1024 mb high
is building over the north-central Gulf, supporting gentle to
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
this week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning
over the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.

A 1007 mb low has been analyzed over northwestern Colombia, and
winds are pulsing to gale force just off the coast. Very rough
seas are occurring in tandem with these winds, with peak seas near
14 ft. Widespread moderate to fresh trades and rough seas are
occurring across the southwestern through eastern basin, with
strong winds noted in the central Caribbean including in the Gulf
of Venezuela and downwind of Hispaniola, as well as through the
Windward Passage. Moderate NE winds are noted in the northwestern
basin, where moderate seas are occurring.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force each night and
early morning offshore of Colombia this week, supported by a
strong pressure gradient between low pressure over northwestern
Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic. Peak seas in
excess of 12 ft are expected near and to the west of these winds.
Expect moderate to fresh trades and rough seas across the eastern,
central and southwestern Caribbean through the next week, with
winds pulsing to strong speeds in the central Caribbean, through
the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela and downwind of
Hispaniola. Moderate NE winds will prevail in the northwestern
Caribbean today before fresh to locally strong NE winds develop
tonight, pulsing through this week. Mixed E and NE swell will
support locally rough seas near the Windward and Leeward Islands
as well as the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through at least midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N66W to 29N74W, and a stationary
front continues southwestward into central Florida. No convection
is occurring near these fronts. The remainder of the SW North
Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging, supporting moderate to
fresh E trade winds south of 25N and west of 55W. However, strong
E winds are found at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas
are 8-11 ft in the areas described. Elsewhere west of 55W,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

The remainder of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is under
the influence of a 1033 mb high pressure centered near the
Azores. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in NW Africa and deep tropics result in fresh to strong
NE to E winds south of a line from 31N22W to 25N55W and east of
55W. These winds are sustaining rough to locally very rough
seas, with the highest seas occurring north and west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough
seas are evident south of 20N and between 55W and the Lesser
Antilles. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress
eastward and weaken over the northern waters this morning before
dissipating later today. High pressure will build in the central
Atlantic, supporting gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
north of 25N this week. South of 25N, fresh to locally strong
trade winds and rough seas in E to NE swell will prevail.

$$
ADAMS
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

810
AXNT20 KNHC 031030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Feb 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds across
the south-central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each
night offshore of Colombia this week. Peak seas to 12 ft are
expected with these winds in the SW Caribbean offshore waters
between Panama and Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to near
02N27W. The ITCZ extends from 02N27W to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is present from 02S to 04N
between 28W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 04S to 07N between 10W and 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging associated with a 1023 mb high pressure located
just S of the Florida Panhandle is the dominant feature in the
basin. This is supporting gentle to moderate E winds E of 94W and
S winds of the same magnitude W of 94W and N of 22N. In the Bay
of Campeche, a surface trough supports moderate winds. Slight seas
are basin-wide. Otherwise, isolated showers are ongoing in the NW
Gulf N of Tampico and in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
this week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas across the basin. Moderate to fresh winds are
forecast at night N of the Yucatan Peninsuala and in the Bay of
Campeche as a surface trough develops in the Peninsula and moves
westward towards the coastal waters of Tampico and Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section regarding a Gale Warning
near the coast of Colombia.

Aside from the gale-force winds off NW Colombia, the strong ridge
located north of the area continues to support fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the eastern, north-central and SW
Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. These winds
sustain moderate to rough seas in these waters. Moderate to fresh
NE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the NW Caribbean,
except for gentle to moderate winds W of 82W. Otherwise, isolated
showers are ongoing in the NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force each night
offshore of Colombia this week, supported by a tight pressure
gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and predominant
high pressure in the western Atlantic. Peak seas to 12 ft are
expected with these winds in the SW Caribbean offshore waters
between Panama and Colombia. Expect moderate to fresh trades and
moderate to rough seas across the eastern, central and SW
Caribbean through the week, with winds pulsing to strong speeds in
the central Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf
of Venezuela and downwind of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh NE
winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean through the week.
Otherwise, E swell will support locally rough seas near the
Windward and Leeward Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into
the Caribbean through Wed. East swell will resume and support
rough seas across the Leeward Islands offshore zones Thu into Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic is dominated by surface ridging associated
with a 1033 mb high pressure system located just south of Nova
Scotia. The remnants of a former stationary front are analyzed as
a surface trough that extends from 31N62W SW to 28N74W. Moderate
NE winds and mainly moderate seas are in the vicinity of this
trough across the northern offshore waters between 55W and 68W.
Another surface trough is along the Florida seaboard. The
pressure gradient between the strong ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics result in strong NE to E winds in the approaches
of the Windward Passage and moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of
24N. These winds along with E swell support 5-7 ft seas in the
area. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle winds and moderate
seas are prevalent.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an
expansive subtropical ridge positioned between the Azores and
Madeira Islands. This strong ridge continue to support fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds across much of the central and
eastern Atlantic, especially south of 27N. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the remnants of the stationary front,
analyzed as a surface trough will dissipate this evening. The
surface trough along the Florida seaboard will dissipate late
today. Surface high pressure and associated ridging will dominate
the region the remainder week with the tail of a cold front
possibly clipping the northern offshore waters tonight through
Wed. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast to prevail S of
24N through the week, except for locally strong winds in the
approaches of the Windward Passage. Otherwise, rough seas in E to
NE swell will develop across the offshore waters E of 70W and S of
24N late Thu into early in the weekend.

$$
Ramos
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

977
AXNT20 KNHC 041054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Feb 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night
offshore of Colombia through the remainder of the week. Peak seas
with these winds are expected to be at or near 12 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to near
05N16W. The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 00N30W to 02N38W to 00N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 01N to 06N between
10W and 24W, and from 05S to 05N between 22W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends basin-wide from a 1022 mb high
pressure centered just south of the Florida Big Bend, which is
supporting gentle to locally moderate winds across the basin.
Areas of locally moderate winds include the Yucatan Peninsula and
NW Cuba adjacent waters, and the Bay of Campeche. Seas are
generally slight, except moderate over the Bay of Campeche. Middle
level divergence is supporting scattered showers across the
central and SW Gulf. Otherwise, dense fog prevail across the
northern and SE Gulf offshore waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
this week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas across the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
are forecast at night north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the
Bay of Campeche as a surface trough develops over the Peninsula
and moves westward towards Tampico and Veracruz diurnally.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
expected gale-force winds near the coast of Colombia.

Aside from the occurrence of gale-force winds off northwestern
Colombia, the gradient between strong high pressure north of the
area and relatively lower pressure present in the southwestern
Caribbean and in Colombia continues to allow for fresh to strong
trade winds in the central, north-central and in the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage.
These winds sustain moderate to rough seas in these waters.
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of
mostly 4 to 6 ft are over the northwestern and eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, northeast strong trades will pulse to gale
force each night with rough seas offshore of Colombia this week,
supported by a tight pressure gradient between low pressure over
NW Colombia and the Bermuda High. NE to E trades will be fresh to
strong in the central Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, in
the Gulf of Venezuela, and downwind of Hispaniola and Cuba.
Otherwise, E swell will support locally rough seas near the
Windward and Leeward Islands as well as the Atlantic passages into
the Caribbean before diminishing tonight. Large E swell will
resume across the Leeward Islands offshore zones Thu into at least Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the
Bermuda-Azores High, which is supporting light to gentle winds and
moderate seas over the western and central waters N of 25N. Over
the eastern subtropical waters, a tighter pressure is leading to
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft,
strongest in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate to
fresh trades and rough seas to 10 ft are elsewhere across the
tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High north of
the region will promote generally moderate or weaker winds across
the offshore waters for the next several days, except for fresh to
strong NE winds across the approach to the Windward Passage.
Otherwise, rough seas in E swell should develop across the
offshore waters east of 70W and south of 24N late Thu through at
least Sat night.

$$
Ramos
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)