ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected along a
broad frontal zone from the Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley
to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts
and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A stalled front will provide the main impetus for severe storm
development from the ArkLaTex to the Mid Atlantic Thursday and
Thursday night. Broad troughing over the central US will gradually
amplify as strong flow aloft overspreads the frontal zone. Deep
moisture and seasonably warm temperatures along and south of the
elongated frontal zone will support the potential for strong to
severe storms over a large area.

...ArkLaTex to the MS/TN Valleys...
Elevated storms are likely to be ongoing near the stalled front
early in the period across parts of the Red River and ArkLaTex
vicinity. Flow aloft will turn more southerly, aiding in increasing
low-level warm advection through the day despite relatively neutral
mid-level height tendency. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s F, moderate buoyancy is likely with only partial diurnal
heating. This should sustain the early storms, allowing them to
spread east, and potentially become surface based over parts of the
MS/TN Valleys. Effective shear of 55+ kt will favor a mix of
supercells and bowing segments capable of damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes.

Additional storms are likely along the dryline over northeast TX and
within the warm sector across parts of southern AR and northern LA
by mid afternoon. Deep veering wind profiles suggests these storms
will likely be supercellular, though the weak capping will favor
multiple interactions and relatively quick upscale growth into one
or more clusters with time. Until then, strong low/mid-level shear,
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong instability will support a
risk for all hazards.

With multiple rounds of convection likely to pass through the area,
confidence in the placement of the front is low. Some consideration
was given to higher probabilities across parts of northeast TX,
southern AR and northern LA, given the potential for several
supercells or a well organized bowing segment.

Another round of elevated storms is likely late Thursday into early
Friday as the flow aloft becomes increasingly meridional over the
southern Plains. Strong low-level warm advection and steep mid-level
lapse rates will support a risk for large hail as storms overrun the
stalled front across central and northwest TX, into southern OK
overnight.

...OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic...
Complications abound from overnight convection likely persisting
into the daylight hours across the OH Valley. The front is forecast
to continue to sag south and stall eventually across the OH Valley
and Mid Atlantic by midday Thursday. South of the boundary low 60s F
surface dewpoints and some filtered diurnal heating should support
around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Several embedded mid-level perturbations
may provide enough ascent for additional convective development
through the day. Vertical shear will remain strong as increasingly
zonal winds aloft overspread the frontal zone. Several clusters of
strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk
primarily for damaging winds and tornado or two, given the
relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow.

..Lyons.. 04/02/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will be possible on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
Southwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Southeast on Sunday.
A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley,
as a cold front advances eastward across the Gulf Coast states and
southern Appalachians. A large MCS is expected to be ongoing near
the front at the start of the period. The MCS is forecast to move
slowly eastward during the day into a moist and unstable airmass.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper
60s F over much of the Southeast, and from the mid 50s to lower 60s
F in the southern Appalachians. The unstable airmass ahead of the
front is expected to gradually become more stable during the day,
due to abundant cloud cover and convective outflow. In spite of
this, the southern edge of the mid-level jet streak will create
strong deep-layer shear, sufficient for an isolated severe threat

Forecast soundings near the instability axis in eastern Alabama
during the afternoon show moderate deep-layer shear, which will
support storm organization. Ahead of the front, model forecasts have
a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet persisting through much of the morning
and afternoon. Near the low-level jet, forecast hodographs are
curved with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2
range. For this reason, an isolated tornado threat will be possible
with supercells. However, the primary storm mode is expected to
remain linear. Line segments that can organize into bowing segments
will have a wind-damage threat. The severe threat may persist into
early evening, but should become more isolated as instability
weakens across the region.

Further to the north into parts of the southern Appalachians, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the edge of a mid-level jet streak
will support some storm organization. However, instability is
forecast to be very weak, suggesting that any wind-damage threat
will be marginal.

..Broyles.. 04/05/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 071738
SWODY2
SPC AC 071736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may occur over far southern Florida and the
Keys late Tuesday and into the overnight hours, and from southeast
Montana to Black Hills.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move east across the Gulf while
a front sinks south across far southern FL. Modest heating may yield
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg over far southern FL, supporting daytime
storms near and north of the front. Midlevel temperatures/lapse
rates do not appear particularly favorable for hail. Ahead of the
upper wave, 850 mb flow will average 20-25 kt, with most of the
stronger winds above 500 mb. As such, severe gusts from
boundary-layer mixing appear unlikely. Small/non-severe hail or
locally strong gusts will be possible.

Overnight, as the upper trough and leading midlevel speed max
approach the FL Peninsula, a minimal increase in lift may result in
increased storm coverage near the Keys and from the FL Straits into
the Bahamas.

Elsewhere, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely from
southeast MT/northeast WY into western SD late. Here, very steep
lapse rates and a progressive/low-amplitude wave will favor storms
forming near the Billings vicinity with scattered cells producing small/sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 04/07/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 120524
SWODY2
SPC AC 120522

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Upper MS Valley to the Great Lakes...
Isolated, elevated thunderstorms are expected to be the predominant
convective scenario on Sunday. An amplifying shortwave trough will
move east across northern portions of the Great Plains and Upper
Midwest. This will yield deepening of a surface cyclone from the
central Plains to Lake Superior. Despite this amplification, poor
quality boundary-layer moisture return relative to a stout EML
appears likely to inhibit surface-based storm development through
the period. Thin, uncapped buoyancy will probably be relegated to
parcels around 700 mb. This will expand east during the day from the
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Small hail is possible, mainly
across the Upper MS Valley, where fast flow will exist in the
cloud-bearing layer.

...CO to MO...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in CO by late afternoon Sunday
within a post-frontal environment characterized by limited low-level
moisture and meager buoyancy. Very isolated thunderstorms may
develop Sunday night into Monday morning with eastward extent across
KS to MO. Scant elevated buoyancy may develop as 700-mb
frontogenesis strengthens within a highly diffluent upper-level flow
regime, atop an increasingly post-frontal stable surface.

..Grams.. 04/12/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 200518
SWODY2
SPC AC 200517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low/shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest on Monday
morning will lift northeast across the Great Lakes into southern
Ontario and western Quebec by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, another
upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will develop
eastward to the northern Plains.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes to the TN/Lower MS
Valleys/Southeast TX...

A belt of moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow associated with the
Great Lakes upper trough will overspread much of the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. At the surface, low pressure will
move in tandem with the upper trough from WI to western Quebec, with
a trailing cold front developing east across the Ohio Valley to the north-central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A narrow corridor
of 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE may develop ahead of the front across the
upper Ohio Valley vicinity. While instability and lapse rates and
will remain poor, robust vertical shear may allow for a few stronger
storms capable of producing locally strong wind gusts.

The southern extent of the aforementioned cold front will stall over
the TN/Lower MS Valley and into southeast TX. Better-quality
boundary layer moisture will reside ahead of the boundary this far
south, resulting in up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, vertical shear
will be very modest. A couple of strong storms will be capable of
locally strong gusts or small hail, but a lack of stronger vertical
shear will likely limit longevity of any stronger/better organized
updrafts, precluding severe probabilities.

...Northern Plains...

Cold temperatures aloft with the upper shortwave trough will support
steep midlevel lapse rates from MT into the northern Plains
vicinity. This will support thunderstorm development during the
afternoon into evening. While instability will remain weak, small
hail may accompany stronger thunderstorm cores across MT into the
western Dakotas. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight
eastern SD into southern MN/northern IA on the nose of a developing
low-level jet. This activity also may produce small hail into early
Tuesday morning.

..Leitman.. 04/20/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 210555
SWODY2
SPC AC 210554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across
portions of the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...

Low-amplitude west/southwest mid/upper flow will prevail across the south-central and southeast states on Tuesday. A belt of stronger
westerlies aloft will reside across the northern tier of the U.S. as
a series of upper troughs migrate eastward from the northern Plains
to the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over Quebec and an
associated cold front will be located from the Hudson Valley into
the NC/VA Piedmont. Further west, low-level moist advection on south/southeasterly low level flow will allow modified Gulf moisture
to spread northward from the Lower MS Valley into the southern High Plains.

...Southern Plains to southern KS...

Modest Gulf moisture will spread north and west through the day to
near the NM/TX border and across much of OK into southern KS.
Forecast guidance suggest a weak shortwave impulse will eject across
the southern Rockies in modest west/southwesterly flow aloft. While
height tendencies will remain neutral, precluding much in the way of
surface cyclogenesis, a sharpening dryline is forecast to extend
from southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles, then southward near the
NM/TX border. Low-level moist advection beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates will support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg).
While deep-layer flow will remain modest, vertically veering wind
profiles will contribute to supercell wind profiles, with
elongated/straight hodographs. Isolated supercells will pose a risk
for large hail. Furthermore, strong heating will result in steep
low-level lapse rates and a well mixed boundary layer, supporting
isolated strong to severe outflow gusts. As a southerly low-level
jet increases during the evening, some potential will exist for
convection to develop into an eastward developing MCS. If this
occurs, some severe potential could persist eastward away from the
dryline into portions of western north Texas and western OK.

...IA/WI/IL...

A stalled frontal boundary will extent across the Mid-MO Valley into
southern WI. Modest moisture return and persistent isentropic ascent
along this boundary may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm
development amid weak diurnal destabilization. Low to midlevel flow
will remain rather weak, but rapidly increase above 700 mb,
supporting effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt. Cold
temperatures aloft (-17 C near 500 mb) will support MLCAPE to around
500 J/kg, and isolated convection could produce sporadic hail.

...Carolinas...

A cold front associated with a surface low over Quebec will develop
southeast across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas during the
afternoon/evening. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer
ahead of the front will support a corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500
J/kg. Weak low-level southwesterly flow will increase with height,
support effective shear magnitudes up to 35 kt. This should be
sufficient for a few stronger/organized cells. Steep low-level lapse
rates and somewhat elongated hodographs suggest transient supercells
capable of strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/21/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 220534
SWODY2
SPC AC 220532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central and southern High Plains on Wednesday.

...Central/Southern Plains...

A low-amplitude, modest southwesterly flow regime will persist
across the Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, a stalled frontal
boundary will extend from the Upper Midwest to the central High
Plains, while a dryline extends south from southeast CO into
southwest TX. Southerly low-level flow will maintain northward
transport of modified Gulf moisture across TX/OK into the central Plains.

Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding ongoing
precipitation Wednesday morning. Some CAMs show widespread
convection across KS, while other place morning convection further
south along the Red River. This morning convection will potentially
have implications for afternoon/evening severe potential as it may
hinder diurnal destabilization, or produce outflow boundaries which
could aid in redevelopment later in the day. Nevertheless, adequate
boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and
modest vertical shear (25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes) will
support a broad area of at least Marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk
(strong winds and hail) from the central Plains along the stalled
frontal boundary, south/southwest into the southern High Plains
along the dry line.

Some greater risk for a few supercells may develop along the dryline
across west Texas. Stronger heating and higher surface dewpoints
will foster greater destabilization. Elongated hodographs suggest
isolated supercells capable of producing large hail will be
possible. Furthermore, steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary
layer mixing may support sporadic strong/severe gusts. Given
nebulous/weak large-scale ascent, storm coverage along the dryline
is uncertain, and probabilities may need to be adjusted/extended
northward if confidence increases in greater storm coverage.

..Leitman.. 04/22/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 230522
SWODY2
SPC AC 230520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from eastern
Colorado into Kansas, and southward across west Texas and Oklahoma.
Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this activity.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Another day of low-amplitude, modest west/southwesterly mid/upper
flow is forecast across the Plains on Thursday. Remnant convection
from the Day 1/Wed period may be ongoing during the morning across
parts of KS/OK/TX, but the location of this activity is uncertain. Nevertheless, south/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain warm
advection across the region to the east of a dryline extending
southward from eastern CO into southwest TX, and to the south of a
frontal boundary near the NE/KS border. Additionally, an outflow
boundary from morning convection is forecast by some guidance to
reside near the OK/KS border, but this will depend on how Day 1/Wed
convection evolves into the Day 2 period.

Where stronger diurnal heating occurs, a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE is forecast, most likely from west TX into OK, with more
modest moisture/instability expected into the central High Plains.
While deep-layer flow will be modest, effective shear around 25-35
kt will allow for isolated organized cells along the dryline in west
TX, which may produce large hail and locally strong gusts. Further
north across parts of eastern CO, modest moisture and upslope flow
may support a few cells capable of producing hail and gusty winds.

With eastward extent into KS/OK and perhaps western north TX,
potential morning convection is resulting in quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding how severe potential will evolve during the afternoon/evening. Re-invigoration of morning activity, or
redevelopment along remnant outflow could result in scattered
thunderstorm clusters. Large hail and strong gusts would be possible
with this activity into the evening. Damaging gusts could become
more likely during the evening if upscale growth can occur as a
25-35 kt southerly low-level jet develops. Given the high degree of uncertainty, will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) probabilities
across an expanded area.

..Leitman.. 04/23/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 240521
SWODY2
SPC AC 240520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma,
northwest Texas, and extreme eastern New Mexico Friday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Plains...

An upper ridge will build over the Plains on Friday. Despite the
building ridge, midlevel temperatures will remain somewhat cool (-10
to -14 C at 500 mb) and weak shortwave impulse is expected to
meander through the upper ridge during the afternoon/evening. At the
surface, a cold front will sag southward across KS into
northern/central OK and the TX Panhandle by 00-03z. A dryline also
will extend southward across southwest TX. Some forecast guidance
suggests remnant convection from the Day 1/Thu period could be
ongoing across parts of eastern OK/KS Friday morning. This is
uncertain, but if this occurs, an outflow boundary may also extend
across portions of OK. Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability, especially
where stronger heating occurs. The aforementioned surface boundaries
will serve as foci for potential thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Elongated hodographs and effective shear near 30
kt suggests any storms that develop could produce large hail. Where
stronger heating occurs, steep low-level lapse rates also could
support sporadic strong gusts.

...OH Valley...

An upper shortwave trough will develop east across southeast Canada
and the Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. Stronger westerly flow aloft
will largely remain over the Great Lakes and Canada and lag behind a
surface cold front. This surface cold front is forecast to move
across the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Modest
boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support modest
destabilization. However, vertical shear is expected to remain
fairly weak. Scattered thunderstorms are expected, and a few
stronger cells could produce locally gusty winds or perhaps small
hail. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited.

..Leitman.. 04/24/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 250553
SWODY2
SPC AC 250551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
An mid-level low will move across southern California and into the
southern Great Basin on Saturday. As this trough advances east,
mid-level ridging across the central CONUS will start to shift east
through the day. A mid-level trough will amplify across Ontario and
into the Northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Surface high
pressure will move into the Great Lakes in the wake of this trough.
As low-pressure develops across the Rockies in response to the
eastward advancing mid-level low, the pressure gradient will tighten
across the Plains with strengthening southerly flow and northward
moisture transport.

...Southern High Plains...
As low-pressure develops in the west, a southerly low-level jet will
strengthen Friday night and early Saturday morning which will likely
lead to widespread storm coverage in the vicinity of a surface front
from the Texas Panhandle/southern Oklahoma/northern Texas. This
ongoing convection could have significant impacts on northward
moisture recovery, and any remnant boundaries could also be a focus
for severe weather later in the day Saturday, particularly across
the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. Details remain uncertain at this
time due to ongoing MCSs this morning and the potential for several
additional convective systems Friday and Friday night. However,
there is relatively higher confidence in some severe weather threat
across far eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas Panhandle, and
adjacent areas. This zone is where the greatest overlap in buoyancy
and shear is expected, with some potential for outflow boundaries to
be an additional focus for storms on Saturday. A few supercells may
be possible with a threat for isolated large hail or wind gusts, and
perhaps a tornado.

..Bentley.. 04/25/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 020552
SWODY2
SPC AC 020551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday
with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A
cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South
Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians
by Saturday evening.

...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast...
A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in
place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning.
Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning
of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will
likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak
instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or
organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably
limit a greater threat.

Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the
Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather
threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer
shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this
threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially
after sunset.

...Deep South Texas...
The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in
the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires
NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower
southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal
severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on
Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some
guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing
differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on
Day 2.

..Bentley.. 05/02/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 030547
SWODY2
SPC AC 030546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the
Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and
southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are
possible across eastern New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern will feature two cutoff lows, one in the
lower/mid Ohio Valley and another that will develop near the lower
Colorado Valley. A surface low in the central/northern Appalachians
will slowly fill during the day. A cold front will slowly progress
eastward through parts of the Southeast into the Blue
Ridge/Piedmont. In New Mexico, weak moisture return and upslope flow
will occur in the southern Rockies.

...Florida...
With the front pushing into portions of the northern Gulf, weak warm
air advection and mid-level ascent on the southern periphery of the
upper low may promote showers/thunderstorms into the eastern Gulf
and perhaps the western Florida Peninsula. This activity plus cloud
cover associated with the subtropical jet will impact the degree of destabilization that occurs in some areas. Still, the pattern favors thunderstorm along the eastern sea breeze boundary during the
afternoon. 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along with 25-30 kts effective
shear across the sea breeze will promote supercells. Temperatures
aloft are expected to be -12 to -14 C. Large hail and damaging winds
would be possible with the strongest storms. A tornado would be
possible with a supercell favorably interacting with the sea breeze
boundary. Additional storms are possible along the front in the
eastern Florida Panhandle/North Florida. Shear will be stronger
closer to the upper low, but convergence is not overly strong along
the front. Storm development will depend on local areas of stronger heating/convergence.

...Georgia into Piedmont/Blue Ridge and upper Ohio Valley
Vicinity...
Precipitation will likely be ongoing for most of these areas early
Sunday morning. With at least low 60s F dewpoints extending into
much of the Mid-Atlantic, destabilization is expected behind the
morning activity. Confidence in sufficient destabilization is
greatest from eastern Georgia into the Carolinas as the
precipitation should move out sooner. Potentially lingering
precipitation and cloud cover cast more uncertainty on the severe
potential for the Mid-Atlantic into the upper Ohio Valley region.
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears possible during the afternoon.
Effective shear of 35-40 kts will promote a few marginally organized
cells capable of marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds.

...New Mexico...
With the cold front having moved into the northern Gulf, moisture
return along the western flank of the surface high will be weak. Mid
to upper 40s F dewpoints can be reasonably expected. However,
temperatures of -14 to -16 C at 500 mb will allow weak buoyancy to
develop. Mid-level ascent from subtle shortwaves and upslope flow
will promote widely scattered to scattered storms in the southern
Rockies. A belt of stronger mid-level winds will promote at least
modest storm organization despite limited buoyancy. Small to
marginally severe hail and isolated strong winds would be possible
with this activity.

..Wendt.. 05/03/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 031723
SWODY2
SPC AC 031721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the
Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and
southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are
possible across eastern New Mexico.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley
vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper
south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further
west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the
western states, while an upper low develops within the southern
branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs,
strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the
southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front
extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal
vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern
Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the
late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary
layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints
with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across
the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will
modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture
will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low
50s F are forecast.

...Florida...

Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep
midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s
F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While
deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and
vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm
organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the
moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered
robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally
severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will
remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but
curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could
develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm
coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe
probabilities at this time.

...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA...

A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and
within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support
thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will
remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb,
supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading
to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft
(-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7
C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail and gusty winds through early evening.

...New Mexico...

Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during
the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through
increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest
upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for
scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the
afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few
organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and
strong gusts will be possible.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2025

$$
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